Semiconductors are the heart of the modern economy. These small devices that manipulate the flow of electricity run everything from our PCs and smartphones to our cars to manufacturing. The semiconductor industry is at an inflection point of renewed growth, powering new movements like generative AI and electric vehicles. The Chip Stock Investor Podcast explores how semiconductors work, and especially the business of chips. Follow Nicholas and Kasey to learn how chip technology has become the engine of the world, and how to invest in its growth.
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June 16, 202612 min
Figma Q1 Earnings: Revenue Soars 46%, Stock Still Pricey
Figma's Q1 2026 revenue grew 46% YoY to $333M, with net dollar retention hitting a multi-year high of 139%. But even after its post-IPO slide, the stock still trades at ~75x next-12-month free cash flow. We break down what's driving the valuation gap, why free cash flow per share is still feeling IPO dilution effects, and what Figma needs to prove on profitability as AI disruption looms over creative software.Topics covered:Why Figma's valuation is still rich despite the stock's declineFigma vs. Adobe, Microsoft, Wix, and the private design-tool fieldAI's disruption risk to creative/design softwareQ1 2026 results: $333M revenue, 139% net dollar retention, $89M free cash flow (27% margin)Free cash flow per share and the impact of IPO-related dilution$1.6B cash, no debt, and why M&A could be on the tableThe $116M RSU tax settlement behind the cash balance dipQ2 and full-year 2026 guidance (40% and 35% YoY growth)This episode is sponsored by fiscal.ai — get 15% off any paid plan at fiscal.ai/csi.Liked this breakdown? Head to chipstockinvestor.com for our full library of semiconductor and tech stock research, deep dives, and analysis — plus access to Semi Insider, our premium subscription for investors who want the data behind every call we make.
June 12, 202621 min
Cyclical vs. Non-Cyclical Stocks Explained: The CSI Investment Framework
Is memory truly cyclical, or has the AI data center boom changed the rules? In Part 2 of the How CSI Invests series, Nick and Kasey tackle one of the most debated questions among semiconductor investors by walking through the investment thesis checklist step that asks: what kind of business cycle does this company actually have?Rather than labeling companies simply cyclical or non-cyclical, the framework breaks businesses into short cycle, long cycle, and non-cyclical categories based on how closely revenue tracks changes in GDP growth. A short cycle business sees revenue move quickly with the economy, while a long cycle or non-cyclical business continues growing steadily regardless of macro conditions. The traditional eleven sectors of the economy do not map cleanly onto this framework, and Nick and Kasey explain why semiconductors, SaaS, telecom carriers, and ad-driven internet platforms can all fall in very different places even within the same official sector.The episode applies this framework to six real companies. Micron is examined as a short cycle business currently in year two of a strong memory upcycle, with historical precedent for these cycles to run several years. Intuitive Surgical is discussed as a long cycle healthcare hardware business tied to product generation launches. Vertex Pharmaceuticals is presented as a genuinely non-cyclical pharmaceutical company with steady growth. NextEra Energy represents the utilities sector and one of the longest cycles of all. Credo Technologies, a newer public company, is evaluated as likely short cycle, with a look at its fiscal 2027 guidance calling for eighty percent revenue growth and fifty percent adjusted profit margins. Finally, Palo Alto Networks is broken down as a cyclical business once acquisitions like CyberArk and Chronosphere are stripped out, with commentary on CEO Nikesh Arora's view that cybersecurity is constantly chasing the next emerging risk.The episode closes with the revenue analysis questions CSI uses for every company: who the primary customers are, whether revenue is concentrated, what is actually being monetized, why customers choose to spend money with that company over alternatives, and what risks could disrupt the business. Understanding these fundamentals is what allows an investor to tune out noisy debates about whether a cycle has "changed forever" and instead build real conviction in a business.For in-depth stock research and the Semiconductor Insider membership,visit chipstockinvestor.com.
June 11, 202617 min
Why Flex Ltd. Just Surged 80% — And What Happens When the Spinoff Closes
Flex Ltd., ticker FLEX, surged roughly eighty percent in a single month — and the company hasn't even completed the spinoff that sparked it. Nick and Kasey cover this electronics manufacturing services giant for the first time at Chip Stock Investor, breaking down what drove the run-up, what the proposed spinoff actually is, and whether there is anything left for long-term fundamental investors at today's valuation.Flex is one of the world's largest electronics manufacturing services companies, competing with Foxconn, Jabil, Celestica, and Sanmina across a global footprint spanning over ninety locations in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. Unlike the perception that contract manufacturing means cheap labor in Asia, Flex's business increasingly runs on automation and robotics — a structural shift that is compressing cost parity across geographies and driving genuine margin improvement. The spinoff is the centerpiece of this episode. Flex is separating its Cloud and Power Infrastructure segment — referred to as SpinCo in the materials — into a standalone company expected to begin trading by the first quarter of calendar year 2027. This segment posted thirty-eight percent year-over-year revenue growth in fiscal year 2026, with guidance pointing to sixty-five to seventy-five percent growth in fiscal 2027 and over eighty percent in fiscal 2028. The business covers critical power products for utility companies, embedded power systems inside data center servers and racks, thermal management solutions that compete in the same market as Vertiv, and cloud power infrastructure for hyperscalers and neo clouds. SpinCo also carries nearly ten percent adjusted operating margins — roughly double the margin profile of the remaining Flex business.What stays with Flex after the split is the larger but slower-growing core: twenty-one billion in revenue across Regulated Manufacturing Solutions, covering healthcare and automotive, and Integrated Technology Solutions serving customers like Cisco, Juniper Networks, now part of Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and Teradyne. Growth there is expected in the low to mid-single digits. Margins are trending in the right direction, but this is not a high-margin business.Nick and Kasey also zoom out on the broader industrial conglomerate breakup theme reshaping the market — from GE Vernova to Honeywell — and how Flex's spinoff fits squarely into that playbook. The prior Flex spinoff, NextPower in 2024, has performed very well for shareholders and gives the SpinCo story some historical credibility. The balance sheet is in reasonable shape for a manufacturer, with enough cash on hand to support bolt-on acquisitions as SpinCo looks to consolidate market share.The valuation discussion is honest: at roughly sixty to seventy times current earnings, this is a momentum trade. The forward picture for fiscal 2028 could look closer to thirty times earnings if growth delivers, but the stock is not cheap by traditional measures.For in-depth stock research and the Semiconductor Insider membership, visit chipstockinvestor.com. Use fiscal.ai/csi for 15% off any paid plan.
June 9, 202611 min
Coherent (COHR): NVIDIA's $2B Bet on Optical Networking's Moment
Optical networking has spent years as a niche corner of the semiconductor industry. CSI makes the case that the moment for companies like Coherent may have finally arrived — and NVIDIA's two-billion-dollar equity investment in the company suggests the largest chipmaker in the world agrees.Coherent (COHR), is an integrated device manufacturer and base materials supplier specializing in indium phosphide and silicon carbide wafers. Under CEO Jim Anderson, who pulled off a similar business transformation at Lattice Semiconductor, Coherent has been shedding non-core assets and sharpening its focus on data center and communications, which now represents seventy-five percent of revenue and posted forty-one percent year-over-year growth in the most recent quarter. Pro forma revenue growth came in at twenty-seven percent, with gross margins approaching the forty percent threshold that marks a key milestone for IDM-class businesses.The divestitures tell the story of the transformation: a four-hundred-million-dollar sale of the aerospace and defense laser business to private equity, and a fifty-one-million-dollar exit from a materials processing tools segment that was diluting margins. What remains is a tighter, faster-growing business positioned at the intersection of AI data center infrastructure, optical connectivity, and advanced materials.The NVIDIA investment is the centerpiece of this episode. With free cash flow running deeply negative as Coherent scales manufacturing capacity for co-packaged optics and near-package optics expected in the second half of 2026, the company needed capital. NVIDIA needed the optical components. The result was a cash-for-equity arrangement that Nick describes as a more direct version of the warrant-based incentive deals seen at companies like AMD and STMicro, cheaper than diluting shareholders, and cheaper than going to a bank.The silicon carbide segment also draws attention, with five-hundred-million-dollar anchor investments from Denso and Mitsubishi Electric secured when silicon carbide was out of favor, now pointing toward three-hundred-millimeter wafer applications for AI data centers and power grid infrastructure.Q3 guidance calls for revenue between 1.9 and just over 2 billion, gross margin at roughly 41%, and continued negative free cash flow as manufacturing scale-up accelerates. CSI compares Coherent to peer Lumentum — framing COHR as the value play and Lumentum as the momentum play — and confirm they are happy holding both.For in-depth stock research and the Semiconductor Insider membership,visit chipstockinvestor.com. Use fiscal.ai/csi for 15% off any paid plan.
June 9, 202611 min
Broadcom Q2 FY2026: Why a Blowout Report Still Sent the Stock Down 10%
Broadcom just delivered another strong earnings report for Q2 fiscal 2026, and the stock fell more than ten percent. CSI breaks down exactly why that happened, what it means for long-term holders, and whether anything has actually changed in the fundamental thesis for one of the most important companies in AI infrastructure.Broadcom has compounded its enterprise value at over fifty percent annually for five years. AI semiconductors now represent roughly three-quarters of the semiconductor solutions segment, which itself makes up the majority of nearly forty-eight billion in trailing twelve-month revenue. Free cash flow hit a record dollar amount this quarter at a forty-six percent margin, still climbing toward its near-fifty percent record high.So why did the stock sell off? The short answer is that Wall Street wanted a raise in 2027 guidance, specifically whether Broadcom's forecast of over one hundred billion in AI semiconductor revenue for fiscal 2027 would be revised higher toward two hundred billion. CEO Hock Tan declined to update that number, and without a concrete revision, earnings expectations stayed flat.Infrastructure software, the VMware segment, is now a cash cow with sub-ten percent growth. The growth engine going forward is AI semiconductors and networking. Chip Stock Investor's position is unchanged, continuing to hold Broadcom as a core AI data center infrastructure name.For in-depth stock research and the Semiconductor Insider membership, visit chipstockinvestor.com. Use fiscal.ai/csi for 15% off any paid plan.
June 4, 202611 min
OUST Q1 2026: 49% Growth + Color LiDAR Could Reshape Physical AI Sensors
Ouster ($OUST) just reported $49M in Q1 2026 revenue — up 49% year-over-year — and crossed the 40% gross margin threshold as it shifts toward a fabless model. But the bigger story is product: the new REV8 LiDAR family and L4 Max chip now integrate native color sensing directly into the sensor, developed in partnership with Fujifilm.In this episode, Nick breaks down what that means for physical AI — autonomous vehicles, robotics, and industrial automation — where today's systems rely on costly, complex sensor fusion setups combining LiDAR with CMOS image sensors. Color LiDAR could simplify that stack significantly.We also cover Q2 2026 guidance, the path toward breakeven, and why OUST remains a small bet in the Semi Insider portfolio — not a full position. This is still a prove-it story: the company operates at a loss and continues issuing shares to fund operations.Topics covered:REV8 family and L4 Max chip breakdownHow color LiDAR changes the physical AI sensor stackWhy OUST is sized as a small bet and what would change thatQ2 2026 guidance and the road to profitabilityFor deeper research and portfolio updates, visit us at chipstockinvestor.com.Chip Stock Investor covers semiconductor stocks and the chips powering AI, autonomy, and the physical world. Subscribe for weekly analysis and research updates.This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
June 2, 20269 min
The Dead Stocks That Are Quietly Beating AI
While the market chased AI names, communications software stocks like Twilio (TWLO) and Bandwidth (BAND) quietly re-accelerated. Here's what the financials actually show — and whether these forgotten names deserve a spot in your portfolio.CSI breaks down two API-layer software companies left for dead after the pandemic era that are now showing signs of fundamental re-acceleration. We analyze quarterly revenue trends, operating profit trajectory, and free cash flow for both — including the key distinction between Twilio's headline revenue and organic revenue (stripping out carrier pass-through fees).We also cover Bandwidth's emerging relationship with Salesforce as a voice-powered AI agent infrastructure provider, and what that means for future revenue growth.Plus, we address the macro question investors are asking: if enterprises pull back on AI token spending, does that actually send them back to SaaS vendors? We break down both sides of that thesis.This is a fundamentals-first look at an under-covered corner of the software market — no hype, just the numbers.🔒 This episode features an excerpt from one of our CSI Live sessions — exclusive to Semi Insider members. Join to access our full library of live analysis, deep dives, and member Q&As:https://chipstockinvestor.com📺 Watch the related YouTube video — we called this back in April:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHcvCip1-tQContent is for general informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute specific investment advice. All investing involves risk. Nick and Kasey do not own shares of Twilio or Bandwidth.
May 29, 202615 min
Wafer Fab Equipment, M&A Moves & The Lab 7 You've Never Heard Of
Are the Fab 5 wafer fab equipment companies — ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and KLA Corp — still worth buying at today's valuations? CSI breaks down 20 years of revenue data across the five companies that control roughly 70% of annual global fab equipment spending, and explain why 2026 and 2027 are shaping up to be record revenue years — with a potential speed bump in 2028 worth watching.The conversation also covers the wave of creative M&A reshaping the equipment landscape: the Axcelis and Veeco merger nearing final approval, Onto Innovation's strategic equity stake in X-ray imaging firm Rigaku, and Applied Materials' targeted acquisition of an advanced packaging segment from ASMPT.But the most overlooked part of this episode is the introduction of the Lab 7 — a group of life science and laboratory capital equipment companies, including Thermo Fisher, Agilent, Bruker, and Revvity, that share surprising structural overlap with semiconductor supply chain investing. CSI explains why these companies could serve as a diversification play for semiconductor-heavy portfolios, and why the two industries may begin to converge.If you're wondering how to stay invested in the semiconductor supply chain without overconcentrating in a handful of names, this episode gives you a research-backed framework for thinking about it.Topics covered:- Fab 5 revenue breakdown and 20-year performance- Is wafer fab equipment overpriced in 2026?- Axcelis + Veeco merger update- Onto Innovation & Rigaku X-ray partnership- Applied Materials acquires ASMPT packaging segment- Introducing the Lab 7: life science meets semiconductor- Portfolio diversification beyond the semiconductor supply chain- Semiconductor market cycle outlook through 2028 and beyondFor in-depth stock research and the Semiconductor Insider membership, visit chipstockinvestor.com. Use fiscal.ai/csi for 15% off any paid plan.
May 26, 202614 min
Amphenol Deep Dive: AI Data Center Bottleneck, CommScope Drag & Is APH Actually Cheap? (Q1 2026)
Amphenol (APH) just reported Q1 2026 earnings and the stock sold off — but the revenue numbers tell a different story. In this episode, Kasey and Nick break down every segment of Amphenol's business and ask whether this "boring" semiconductor supply chain stock is one of the better values in AI infrastructure right now.Amphenol is one of the world's largest manufacturers of electrical connectors, cables, antennas, and sensors. It operates across 350 facilities worldwide and sits at the intersection of AI data centers, aerospace and defense, automotive, industrial automation, and satellite communications. It doesn't make a flashy end product — but nearly every major AI infrastructure build runs through Amphenol components.In this episode we cover:— IT DataCom: now 41% of Amphenol's total revenue and nearly doubling year over year as AI data center demand drives cable and connector spending— Industrial: 20% of revenue, up 16% organically, led by building connectivity and automation sensors— Communications networks: 91% as-reported growth boosted by the CommScope acquisition, but flat organically — broadband infrastructure spending has softened— Defense: up 44% year over year, with high single digit growth expected to continue— Automotive: soft in Asia, down 7% sequentially, modest recovery expected in Q2— Commercial air and mobile devices: small segments, largely holding steadyWe also dig into why earnings per share is growing slightly slower than revenue despite strong AI data center demand — and the answer comes down to the CommScope acquisition. CommScope's margins are lower than Amphenol's existing business, integration takes time, and the long-term debt load is now visible on the balance sheet. None of this is unusual for a major acquisition, but it explains the market's reaction.We close with a reverse DCF scenario using a five-year average growth rate of 22% and a 4% terminal growth rate — and discuss what that implies about fair value for APH stock as of May 2026.If you're researching semiconductor stocks, AI infrastructure investing, or picks-and-shovels plays in the data center buildout, this is an episode worth your time.More research and stock tools at chipstockinvestor.com — and join Semi Insider for deeper analysis.
May 21, 202612 min
Nvidia Q1 FY2027: $49 Billion in Free Cash Flow, the CPU Supplier Claim That Changes Everything, and Whether NVDA Is Actually Cheap
Nvidia just reported Q1 fiscal year 2027. The numbers are extraordinary even by Nvidia's own standards. Free cash flow of $49 billion. A nearly 60% free cash flow margin. Revenue guidance implying over $300 billion for calendar year 2026, with some estimates suggesting $400 billion is possible. Next quarter alone: $91 billion in guided revenue. Vera Rubin is beginning to ship and is expected to generate $20 billion in its first six months.And then Jensen Huang said something on the earnings call that almost nobody covered.Nvidia plans to become the world's largest CPU supplier in 2026.That single claim has profound implications — for Intel, for AMD, for every investor tracking the CPU market, and for the semiconductor supply chain at large. CSI called this out as a remote possibility during their CPU market share update just weeks earlier. Now it is a public commitment from Jensen Huang himself.CSI works through the full picture in this episode. They cover Nvidia's new revenue reporting framework — the shift from a single data center segment to two sub-markets. Hyperscale covers the five major cloud providers: Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle. ACIE covers AI clouds, industrial, enterprise, and sovereign data centers. This segmentation matters enormously because 80% of global IT spending is still on legacy systems. The enterprise migration to AI infrastructure is just beginning to happen at scale, and for the first time investors have direct visibility into it through Nvidia's own reporting.They also run the reverse DCF at $223 per share. The result: 20% free cash flow per share growth over five years at a 6% terminal rate gets you to today's price. That is not historically cheap for Nvidia. But it is the lowest bar the company has had to clear in years — and given that EPS grew 214% and FCF per share grew 88% in Q1 alone, clearing that bar looks more feasible than it sounds.CSI's updated position: Nvidia remains their largest personal holding. The updated baseline assumption is 50% stock price growth for 2026, revised upward from 40%. Not a prediction. A framework for thinking about what the business needs to deliver to justify current prices.What we cover:— Nvidia Q1 FY2027: $49B FCF, 60% FCF margin, EPS +214% YoY— Revenue outlook: $300B+ in 2026, $91B guided next quarter— Vera Rubin: $20B in sales expected in first six months— New reporting framework: hyperscale vs. ACIE and why it matters— The enterprise migration — 80% of global IT still on legacy systems— Jensen's CPU claim: Nvidia to be world's largest CPU supplier in 2026— Reverse DCF at $223: 20% FCF/share growth, 6% terminal rate— Why Nvidia has looked "boring" while small caps ran hundreds of percent— Updated CSI baseline: 50% stock price target revised upwardSemi Insider members get access to CSI's full DCF and reverse DCF tools, live Q&A sessions, and analysis like this as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.comDisclosure: Nick and Kasey have a position in Nvidia. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com
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