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Oct 2026

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Haver Analytics is the premier provider of global economic and financial data, delivering timely and accurate time series data to a wide range of clients, including central banks, government agencies, financial institutions, and academic institutions. Founded in 1969, Haver is a privately held company headquartered in New York City with offices around the world. Haver Analytics also offers a variety of other products and services, including: • Data visualization and analysis tools • Data integration and management services • Custom data solutions • Training and consulting services Get in touch: sales@haver.com Visit our website: www.haverproducts.com

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October 29, 2026Episode 16815 min

Resilience on Narrow Foundations

Four central banks decide policy this week, with an awkward message from the data: growth is holding up, but the sources of resilience are narrowing. In this week’s charts: → Factories are doing more of the lifting → Positive growth surprises are still outpacing inflation surprises → Stronger data had been pushing bond yields higher → Household disposable income growth weak or falling → US consumption leaning on equity wealth → Growth upgrades concentrated in chipmakers One capital spending cycle, one stock market and a falling saving rate. The expansion is real, but its dependence on asset values and financing conditions gives central banks reason to tread carefully before tightening further.

October 22, 2026Episode 16714 min

Growth on Borrowed Strength

The world economy has taken war, political uncertainty and expensive money in its stride. But resilience is not strength. Growth now leans on a narrow investment boom whose financial and physical costs are climbing. In our charts this week: → A market retreat that punished the year’s winners in proportion → Japanese exports tracking the scale of the chip investment cycle → British wage disinflation losing momentum → Housing markets flat across the advanced economies → Chinese investment weakness spreading past property → Power prices climbing in every major market The question running underneath all six is whether this investment delivers productivity fast enough to cover what it costs. Until it does, the expansion keeps running on borrowed strength.

October 15, 2026Episode 16614 min

The Narrow Boom

Markets spent the past week doubting the proposition that has carried them all year. Technology stocks fell, bonds caught a defensive bid — none of it about the macro data, which if anything improved. In our charts this week: → Blue Chip: growth up almost everywhere, inflation down → US trend growth marked up — back to where it sat a decade ago → US construction: data centres rising, everything else falling faster → Chips now dominate Chinese exports. Solar has collapsed → China’s surplus with the EU widens. Europe sells no more → What European firms use AI for: words and pictures

October 8, 2026Episode 16515 min

The Political Premium

US equities pushed to fresh highs again this week, the dollar is firmer than it was a month ago and gold sits some way below its late-August peak. Capital is being pulled towards American investment rather than away from risk. In our charts this week: → US hiring has slowed, but so has the bar it must clear → French spreads now wider than Italy's → Political stability has tracked living standards since 2019 → America's yield rise is real, Europe's is inflation compensation → Supply chain pressure back at 2022 levels → One economy holding the global expansion up

October 1, 2026Episode 16415 min

A Benign Phase

Bond markets are pricing a tightening cycle. Equity markets are arguably pricing a productivity boom. Both can't be right for long. This week's Charts of the Week looks at why the current combination is so unusual — and what would end it. → Policy rates expected higher in every major economy → AI hiring spreading well beyond the US → Output accelerating, core inflation still falling → The global capex cycle has turned → Pay growth has halved while unemployment barely moved → Power costs climbing where the data centres are

September 24, 2026Episode 16316 min

Narrow Shoulders

The world economy has absorbed six months of disrupted energy supply with far less damage than it could have. The reasons why are arguably narrower than they look. In our charts this week: Delivery times lengthening, freight rates climbing Growth upgrades went almost entirely to the chip exporters Record drawdown in global oil stocks Three commodity shocks, three unrelated causes US labour demand steady, UK still falling France now trades wider than Italy

September 17, 2026Episode 16215 min

The Price of Money

Energy and the cost of money set the tone this week. Crude held above $100, the ten-year Treasury yield pushed through 5 per cent, and the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023. But the tightening is not coming from corporate borrowing, and the week's data from Britain, China and Korea point to very different pressures again. In our charts this week: Futures now price above the Fed's own path US companies are funding investment from cash Blue Chip marks growth up, inflation down UK pay growth and vacancies keep falling China's investment slump Korean chips are nearly half of all exports

September 10, 2026Episode 16110 min

The Reflationary Turn

The global economy is tilting back towards reflation: growth is firming while inflation proves stubborn, just as a cluster of central banks prepare to meet. This week in six charts: → Global growth surprises have lately been positive and inflation surprises negative — a supportive mix for equities. → Policy uncertainty has eased, but remains high. → Most major economies now sit on the reflationary side of the cycle. → Supply-chain pressure is building again, pointing to firmer producer prices. → The Phillips curve has re-steepened across advanced economies. → The climb in bond yields is being driven by real rates, not inflation expectations.

September 3, 2026Episode 16013 min

The Turn Towards Tightening

Central banks set the tone this week. After Warsh's first Jackson Hole address, and with the ECB expected to move again, the monetary tide is turning towards tightening — even as growth slows. The week in six charts: → Forecasters expect higher rates in most major economies → Shipping and supply-chain costs are rising again → Price pressure is re-emerging at the factory gate → US labour demand is shifting to where workers are scarcest. → G10 core inflation is already near target. → The real cost of capital has decisively turned.

August 26, 2026Episode 15911 min

Resilient growth, restless yields

The real economy has refused to buckle. Through a year of tariffs, conflict and tighter money, global growth has held up — and firmer growth has sat naturally alongside higher yields. Indeed, what stands out is why those yields are climbing: almost entirely the real rate and behind it the deeper question of who is now willing to fund America's debt. This week's six charts: 🔹 Global GDP held near its long-run pace in Q2 🔹 August flash PMIs confirm it — helped by industry 🔹 South Korea's chip exports go near-vertical 🔹 The yield climb is being led by the real component 🔹 The world funds a shrinking share of US debt 🔹 Surplus nations turn to gold