Macro Pulse

Hosted by Haver Analytics

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150

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Jun 2026

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Haver Analytics is the premier provider of global economic and financial data, delivering timely and accurate time series data to a wide range of clients, including central banks, government agencies, financial institutions, and academic institutions. Founded in 1969, Haver is a privately held company headquartered in New York City with offices around the world. Haver Analytics also offers a variety of other products and services, including: • Data visualization and analysis tools • Data integration and management services • Custom data solutions • Training and consulting services Get in touch: sales@haver.com Visit our website: www.haverproducts.com

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June 11, 2026Episode 14911 min

Inflation at the Crossroads

The global macro backdrop has grown more unsettled. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has pushed back Fed easing expectations, a tech sell-off has rattled sentiment, and Middle East instability continues to keep energy markets on edge. In our latest Charts of the Week we examine: GDP growth forecasts: broad deterioration, with Taiwan the striking exception Why 2027 inflation forecasts are now drifting above target The reassuring signal from US unit labour costs Renewed supply chain stress and the PPI pipeline Energy costs as a structural constraint, not an exceptional shock China's quiet trade normalisation with the US The key question is whether the current energy shock proves more persistent than even the already-cautious consensus currently assumes.

June 4, 2026Episode 14810 min

Inflation Fears, AI Cheers

The global macro backdrop continues to evolve in ways that would have surprised many investors at the start of the year. Expectations of widespread monetary easing have steadily receded as inflation has proven more persistent and economic activity more resilient than anticipated. In our charts this week we examine: The growing bias toward monetary policy tightening Firming US labour demand Supply side inflation risks Ebbing US tariff pressures South Korea’s semiconductor boom Equity capital flows across Asia Together, these charts highlight a world economy that remains surprisingly resilient, while raising important questions about the outlook for inflation, interest rates, and global investment trends.

May 28, 2026Episode 14710 min

The AI Boom Meets Inflation Angst

Markets have remained relatively resilient as oil prices soften on renewed hopes surrounding the US-Iran negotiations. But beneath the surface, the macro backdrop remains fragile. In our charts this week: • Europe remains vulnerable to higher energy prices • US consumer confidence continues to weaken • Not yet close to the pandemic-era liquidity shock • Broad money growth remains subdued • AI infrastructure investment continues to surge • Semiconductor demand still powering ahead The global economy remains caught between two powerful and competing forces: renewed geopolitical and energy-related inflation risks on one side and a historic AI-driven investment and infrastructure boom on the other.

May 21, 2026Episode 14611 min

Surprise, Surprise

Markets have swung back toward inflation angst as Middle East tensions and higher energy prices push bond yields higher again. But beneath the surface, the macro picture remains increasingly divided: • US inflation surprises re-emerging • Global bond yields backing up • US labour bargaining power still weak • Oil prices elevated despite fading war fears • Core inflation still relatively benign • AI investment boom accelerating The global economy remains caught between two powerful and competing forces: renewed supply-side inflation risks on one side and a historic AI-driven investment boom on the other.

May 7, 2026Episode 14512 min

Still Standing

Talk of a potential easing in Middle East tensions has steadied markets. But scratch the surface, and the macro picture remains far from settled. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension: • Global manufacturing holding up — despite higher energy prices • Shipping costs rising — supply chains tightening again • Oil production constrained — logistics, not demand, the issue • Policy expectations shifting — tilt back toward tightening risk • US bank lending standards – in neutral for now • Wage pressures still elevated — particularly in the UK The takeaway? Markets are still standing — but the balance between growth and inflation is becoming increasingly fragile.

April 30, 2026Episode 14411 min

Tension Beneath the Surface

Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and a packed week of central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ), financial markets have remained remarkably resilient. But beneath that surface calm, the data are starting to tell a more complicated story. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension: Front-end yields repricing “higher for longer” Real-time US recession risks — contained A divergence in consumer confidence (US vs Europe) Tighter credit conditions in the euro area An intensifying semiconductor price boom And AI beginning to reshape labour markets The takeaway? Markets may be holding up — but the underlying macro is becoming more finely balanced.

April 23, 2026Episode 14311 min

Risks Build, Markets Shrug

Financial markets have remained strikingly calm in recent weeks — despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a softening macro narrative, and elevated uncertainty. Volatility is subdued. Financial stress indicators are benign. Equities, for now, are choosing to look through both the conflict and the weaker data. That resilience feels… notable. Because beneath the surface, the macro backdrop is becoming more nuanced — and arguably more fragile. In this week’s charts, we dig into the tension between market calm and macro reality: • The IMF’s latest global outlook — and what it says about the direction of travel • Financial stress gauges — still quiet, but for how long? • Growth and inflation surprises vs. market volatility — a widening disconnect • Inflation nowcasts — early signals on where prices are heading next • Energy pass-through — the lingering impact of recent shocks • Germany’s ZEW survey — sentiment at the heart of Europe

April 9, 2026Episode 14211 min

From Oil Shock to Policy Dilemma

Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have triggered a relief rally across financial markets—equities higher, yields retracing, volatility easing. But beneath the surface, the macro story is far from settled. In our Charts of the Week, we explore how the shock is beginning to ripple through markets, policy expectations and the real economy: • Global growth and inflation surprises • Shifting monetary policy expectations • Energy shocks and central bank reaction functions • Real yields vs inflation expectations • Diverging electricity prices • Structural differences in energy capacity

March 26, 2026Episode 14111 min

A Supply-Constrained World Comes into Sharper Focus

Markets may be taking some comfort from tentative de-escalation signals in the Middle East, but the economic aftershocks are still working their way through—via energy prices, supply chains and heightened geopolitical risk. This week’s charts focus on: • The global business cycle — momentum vs resilience • Elevated (and increasingly structural) uncertainty • Renewed supply chain stress • A more complex and uncertain policy backdrop • Questions around monetary policy credibility • Oil prices vs still-anchored inflation expectations A global economy that’s still running—but more fragile, more supply-driven, and harder to manage.

March 19, 2026Episode 14010 min

Energy Shock — Early Signals, Uncertain Fallout

The sharp escalation in Middle East tensions is already reverberating through global markets — pushing energy prices higher, exposing the world economy’s deep reliance on fossil fuels, and prompting a rethink of how far and how fast central banks can ease. In this week’s charts, we unpack the macro implications through: Geopolitical risk dynamics The global energy mix Energy use and real oil prices Short-end bond yield repricing European sentiment China’s investment pulse Still early days — but the direction of travel is becoming clearer.