The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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216

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Aug 2026

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Capital Economics, a world-leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight those issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

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August 21, 2026Episode 21724 min

The great global bond sell-off – causes, consequences and what comes next

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics features an exclusive extract from our client briefing on the global bond sell-off, its causes, consequences and where markets go from here. In this edited extract, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann answer questions from clients around the world, including: What was Scott Bessent’s Treasury market intervention intended to achieve, and why it has so far fallen short? What are the economic forces pushing investors to demand more compensation for holding long-dated government bonds? Which economies are most exposed to a fiscal crisis? Is the AI credit boom affecting demand for government debt? How high could bond yields rise from here? Related content Read: How to think about the bond market sell-off https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-bond-market-sell Read: What taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-taxes-could-burnham-raise-fund-his-policy-ambitions

August 14, 2026Episode 21627 min

A polarised US rate debate, China's lost reform and the £25bn question

Have a couple of softer US inflation prints taken a post-Summer Fed rate hike off the table? Did that CPI and PPI data vindicate Kevin Warsh’s divisive approach to central bank communications? And what does the death of former Premier Zhu Rongji tell us about China’s political economy today? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss the US inflation and rate outlook, the angst at the long end of the Treasury yield curve, and why the pace and nature of reform in China today not only pales in comparison what was happening at the turn of the century, but could threaten global economic stability. Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory discusses her widely covered report on how much tax Andy Burnham could be seeking to raise in October’s Budget. She explains how the potential tax increases compare with the controversial big Budget of 2024, which taxes could rise and what the impact could be on the UK economy. Related content What taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-taxes-could-burnham-raise-fund-his-policy-ambitions Capital Economics events https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

August 7, 2026Episode 21540 min

Is a September Fed hike off the table? The yen rescue. EM risks.

A jam-packed episode begins with Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joining David Wilder to discuss what a surprisingly weak US employment report means for expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. Neil and David are then joined by Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann to unpack the implications of coordinated US-Japanese intervention to halt the yen's slide. They discuss everything from Prime Minister Takaichi's policy agenda and its impact on market perceptions of the currency to whether Scott Bessent's move was also intended to send a message to Beijing about an undervalued renminbi. Finally, Senior Emerging Markets Economist Liam Peach examines the latest update to our EM Financial Risk Indicators, highlighting where we see the greatest risks of a crisis and why, despite the recent energy shock, most emerging markets have remained remarkably resilient. Related content How worried should investors be about Takaichi’s policies? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/japan-economics-focus/how-worried-should-investors-be-about-takaichis-policies Your questions on Japan’s markets answered https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/fx-markets-update/your-questions-japans-markets-answered EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026) https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-financial-risk-monitor/em-financial-risk-monitor-jul-2026

July 31, 2026Episode 21427 min

Kevin Warsh's failure to communicate. Plus: Europe's wildfires

Kevin Warsh sent financial markets into turmoil with a press conference that muddied, rather than clarified, the Fed's message. But was the confusion all part of a broader strategy from a Federal Reserve chair who takes a dim view of forward guidance? On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss why he doesn't think the new chair deserves the benefit of the doubt, and why clearer communication will be essential if the Fed is to preserve its inflation-fighting credibility. Also on the show, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham explains why, despite the horrific scenes unfolding across southern Europe, this summer's wildfires are likely to have only a limited economic impact. Related content The renminbi could not rebalance China on its own https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/renminbi-could-not-rebalance-china-its-own Little macroeconomic impact of horrific wildfires https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-update/little-macroeconomic-impact-horrific-wildfires

July 24, 2026Episode 21323 min

Trade wars, shooting wars and the AI investment boom

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks another turbulent week for the global economy. He talks to David Wilder about the latest escalation in the US trade war, the economic fallout from rising tensions with Iran and higher oil prices and why the AI investment boom continues to reshape growth in the US and China. Trade war: What's behind the Trump administration's latest tariff announcements and why global trade has remained surprisingly resilient. Shooting war: After oil $100 a barrel again, what are the implications for inflation and central banks if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate? AI boom: How AI investment is now the major driver of growth in both the US and China, and what happens if the boom turns to bust? Related content Fed preview: Rate hikes coming, but not until September https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-fed-watch/rate-hikes-coming-not-until-september Bank of England preview: BoE to hold rates as energy prices keep rate hikes in play https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/boe-watch-boe-hold-rates-energy-prices-keep-rate-hikes-play What is the future of US tariffs? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/what-future-us-tariffs

July 17, 2026Episode 21234 min

The next oil shock? And China's economy after the GDP miss

The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire has triggered another spike in oil prices and put markets back on edge. Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss whether the world is heading for another oil shock and what it would mean for growth and inflation. He also explains how Kevin Warsh's warning that the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation" could translate into policy. Also on the show, Julian Evans-Pritchard unpacks China's disappointing Q2 GDP figures, including the role AI is playing in shoring up activity, explains why the People's Bank of China isn't more concerned about slowing credit growth and discusses what to expect on the stimulus front. Related content The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/implications-renewed-closure-strait Global Economic Outlook: US strength points to renewed policy divergence https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/us-strength-points-renewed-policy-divergence-0 UK Drop-In: The Burnham government – will policy ambition collide with economic reality? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/uk-drop-burnham-government-will-policy-ambition-collide-economic-reality Why Burnham will struggle to revive UK growth https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-focus/why-burnham-will-struggle-revive-uk-growth

July 10, 2026Episode 21126 min

Jennifer McKeown on where next for the advanced economies

It's far too soon to be worrying about another spike in inflation from renewed fighting in the Middle East. That's one of the key messages from Capital Economics' Global Chief Economist Jennifer McKeown, who joins David Wilder on The Weekly Briefing with Neil Shearing away this week. Jenny explains what could drive the Fed to raise interest rates as early as September, whether economies on both sides of the Atlantic can continue to hold up and where we think the consensus is wrong on the outlook for interest rates. Also on the show, in an exclusive excerpt from a recent online client briefing on AI, Chief Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood explains where the technology's impact is already showing up in the data, and what happens to the global economy if AI's promised productivity gains never materialise. Related content Capital Economics Key Issues: AI Drop-In: AI's global shockwaves – Macro and market implications

July 3, 2026Episode 21032 min

From boom to bust: the AI equity rally in its final phase

For the past three years, our Markets team has been more optimistic than most about the AI-driven rally in global equities. That view has been borne out by events. Now they believe the rally has entered its final phase and that a sharp downturn will follow. On this week's The Weekly Briefing , Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann explains why we think the correction is coming in 2027, what to expect before the plunge and whether the Fed will play a role in the rally's demise. Also on the show, Climate and Commodities Economist Hamad Hussain discusses why our long-standing forecast that gold prices would retreat from their record highs is playing out, and why prices have further to fall from here. Related content: Drop-In: AI's global shockwaves – Macro and market implications Asset Allocation Outlook: The AI equity boom reaching its final innings https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/asset-allocation-outlook/ai-equity-boom-reaching-its-final-innings Commodities Outlook: Beyond Hormuz – the path back to an oil glut https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-outlook/beyond-hormuz-path-back-oil-glut

June 26, 2026Episode 20932 min

AI's macro boost, a hawkish Fed and Burnham's balancing act

Our flagship Global Economic Outlook is just around the corner, and in this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing , Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews our view of a world in which some economies are benefiting from the AI investment boom while others are falling behind. He also discusses what to expect from next week’s US employment report and why markets are underestimating just how hawkish the Fed may need to remain to bring inflation back to target. Also on the show, with Andy Burnham’s 'coronation' as the UK’s next prime minister looking increasingly likely, what do we know about the new government’s plans? Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory from our UK team discuss the fiscal constraints that will limit a Burnham government’s spending ambitions, while explaining why falling inflation could allow the Bank of England to deliver much more monetary easing than markets currently expect. Related content UK Economic Outlook: Fall in inflation to 2.0% in 2027 to trigger rate cuts https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economic-outlook/fall-inflation-20-2027-trigger-rate-cuts Capital Economics Events https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

June 19, 2026Episode 20823 min

Tough economic choices in a fragile peace

A peace deal that's already showing signs of strain. Central bankers still wrestling with inflation. A new Fed chair seeking reform. And a UK local election with implications for the bond market. It’s been a busy week for macro and markets, and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to make sense of it all. Neil explains what the increasingly fragile US-Iran peace deal means for global oil supplies and the outlook for inflation and interest rates. In his discussion, Neil reviews Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair, considers the outlook for US interest rates, examines mounting trade tensions between Europe and China, and explains why the UK's next prime minister may find fiscal promises difficult to keep.