The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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218

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Aug 2026

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Capital Economics, a world-leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight those issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

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September 10, 2026Episode 22017 min

Neil Shearing on China Shock 2.0

The stunning surge in Chinese exports bears comparison with what happened during the first China shock of the early 2000s. But this time is different: the scale is much larger, the goods being exported are much more advanced and the geopolitical environment is much more fraught. In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group – Chief Economist Neil Shearing introduces Capital Economics' new series on China Shock 2.0, explaining what this shock means for the global economy, why the costs this time are falling hardest on Europe and why an orderly adjustment to global imbalances looks out of reach. Find out more about our events happening in North America, Europe and Asia this autumn: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events#in-person

September 4, 2026Episode 21929 min

That hot jobs report and the Fed's September meeting

That was a much hotter payrolls report than the market had expected, but how will it influence this month’s Fed decision? With inflation risks still prevalent, how will the ECB and Bank of England approach their September meetings? And what does the surge in bond yields mean for economies? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown join David Wilder on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to discuss energy prices, bond yields, inflation risks and what they mean for the path of interest rates. Also on the show, with resurgent energy prices adding to the dilemma facing central bankers and bond markets, we hear an exclusive excerpt from a recent client briefing on our outlook for markets. Our Commodities team looks at the near-term risks to oil product prices and natural gas supply, as well as what the US-Venezuela oil deal could mean for energy markets. Related content Global Drop-In: Post-summer macro and markets outlook, Tuesday 8th September 0900 BST/1600 SGT: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-post-summer-macro-and-markets-outlook 1000 ET/1500 BST: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-post-summer-macro-and-markets-outlook-0 Watch now: Commodities catch-up – What next for energy, gold and agriculturals? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-commodities-catch-what-next-energy-gold-and-agriculturals

August 27, 2026Episode 21824 min

AI earnings and equities, gauging Bessent’s success and Iran’s economic squeeze

Can another set of blow-out AI earnings reignite the rally that has powered equities for so long but recently seems to have run out of puff? Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann joins The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the latest tech earnings, whether Scott Bessent has managed to cap Treasury yields and what investors will want to hear from Kevin Warsh in his Jackson Hole address. Also on the show, just days after Bessent announced ‘Economic D-Day’ for Iran, Chief Emerging Markets Economist William Jackson assesses how much pain the Iranian economy is in and whether further pressure from the Trump administration could be enough to force Tehran to capitulate. Related content Concentrated earnings probably mean concentrated returns https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/concentrated-earnings-probably-mean-concentrated-returns Can Iran continue to hold out? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/middle-east-north-africa-economics-update/can-iran-continue-hold-out

August 21, 2026Episode 21724 min

The great global bond sell-off – causes, consequences and what comes next

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics features an exclusive extract from our client briefing on the global bond sell-off, its causes, consequences and where markets go from here. In this edited extract, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann answer questions from clients around the world, including: What was Scott Bessent’s Treasury market intervention intended to achieve, and why it has so far fallen short? What are the economic forces pushing investors to demand more compensation for holding long-dated government bonds? Which economies are most exposed to a fiscal crisis? Is the AI credit boom affecting demand for government debt? How high could bond yields rise from here? Related content Read: How to think about the bond market sell-off https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-bond-market-sell Read: What taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-taxes-could-burnham-raise-fund-his-policy-ambitions

August 14, 2026Episode 21627 min

A polarised US rate debate, China's lost reform and the £25bn question

Have a couple of softer US inflation prints taken a post-Summer Fed rate hike off the table? Did that CPI and PPI data vindicate Kevin Warsh’s divisive approach to central bank communications? And what does the death of former Premier Zhu Rongji tell us about China’s political economy today? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss the US inflation and rate outlook, the angst at the long end of the Treasury yield curve, and why the pace and nature of reform in China today not only pales in comparison what was happening at the turn of the century, but could threaten global economic stability. Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory discusses her widely covered report on how much tax Andy Burnham could be seeking to raise in October’s Budget. She explains how the potential tax increases compare with the controversial big Budget of 2024, which taxes could rise and what the impact could be on the UK economy. Related content What taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-taxes-could-burnham-raise-fund-his-policy-ambitions Capital Economics events https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

August 7, 2026Episode 21540 min

Is a September Fed hike off the table? The yen rescue. EM risks.

A jam-packed episode begins with Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joining David Wilder to discuss what a surprisingly weak US employment report means for expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. Neil and David are then joined by Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann to unpack the implications of coordinated US-Japanese intervention to halt the yen's slide. They discuss everything from Prime Minister Takaichi's policy agenda and its impact on market perceptions of the currency to whether Scott Bessent's move was also intended to send a message to Beijing about an undervalued renminbi. Finally, Senior Emerging Markets Economist Liam Peach examines the latest update to our EM Financial Risk Indicators, highlighting where we see the greatest risks of a crisis and why, despite the recent energy shock, most emerging markets have remained remarkably resilient. Related content How worried should investors be about Takaichi’s policies? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/japan-economics-focus/how-worried-should-investors-be-about-takaichis-policies Your questions on Japan’s markets answered https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/fx-markets-update/your-questions-japans-markets-answered EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026) https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-financial-risk-monitor/em-financial-risk-monitor-jul-2026

July 31, 2026Episode 21427 min

Kevin Warsh's failure to communicate. Plus: Europe's wildfires

Kevin Warsh sent financial markets into turmoil with a press conference that muddied, rather than clarified, the Fed's message. But was the confusion all part of a broader strategy from a Federal Reserve chair who takes a dim view of forward guidance? On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss why he doesn't think the new chair deserves the benefit of the doubt, and why clearer communication will be essential if the Fed is to preserve its inflation-fighting credibility. Also on the show, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham explains why, despite the horrific scenes unfolding across southern Europe, this summer's wildfires are likely to have only a limited economic impact. Related content The renminbi could not rebalance China on its own https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/renminbi-could-not-rebalance-china-its-own Little macroeconomic impact of horrific wildfires https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-update/little-macroeconomic-impact-horrific-wildfires

July 24, 2026Episode 21323 min

Trade wars, shooting wars and the AI investment boom

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks another turbulent week for the global economy. He talks to David Wilder about the latest escalation in the US trade war, the economic fallout from rising tensions with Iran and higher oil prices and why the AI investment boom continues to reshape growth in the US and China. Trade war: What's behind the Trump administration's latest tariff announcements and why global trade has remained surprisingly resilient. Shooting war: After oil $100 a barrel again, what are the implications for inflation and central banks if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate? AI boom: How AI investment is now the major driver of growth in both the US and China, and what happens if the boom turns to bust? Related content Fed preview: Rate hikes coming, but not until September https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-fed-watch/rate-hikes-coming-not-until-september Bank of England preview: BoE to hold rates as energy prices keep rate hikes in play https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/boe-watch-boe-hold-rates-energy-prices-keep-rate-hikes-play What is the future of US tariffs? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/what-future-us-tariffs

July 17, 2026Episode 21234 min

The next oil shock? And China's economy after the GDP miss

The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire has triggered another spike in oil prices and put markets back on edge. Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss whether the world is heading for another oil shock and what it would mean for growth and inflation. He also explains how Kevin Warsh's warning that the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation" could translate into policy. Also on the show, Julian Evans-Pritchard unpacks China's disappointing Q2 GDP figures, including the role AI is playing in shoring up activity, explains why the People's Bank of China isn't more concerned about slowing credit growth and discusses what to expect on the stimulus front. Related content The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/implications-renewed-closure-strait Global Economic Outlook: US strength points to renewed policy divergence https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/us-strength-points-renewed-policy-divergence-0 UK Drop-In: The Burnham government – will policy ambition collide with economic reality? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/uk-drop-burnham-government-will-policy-ambition-collide-economic-reality Why Burnham will struggle to revive UK growth https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-focus/why-burnham-will-struggle-revive-uk-growth

July 10, 2026Episode 21126 min

Jennifer McKeown on where next for the advanced economies

It's far too soon to be worrying about another spike in inflation from renewed fighting in the Middle East. That's one of the key messages from Capital Economics' Global Chief Economist Jennifer McKeown, who joins David Wilder on The Weekly Briefing with Neil Shearing away this week. Jenny explains what could drive the Fed to raise interest rates as early as September, whether economies on both sides of the Atlantic can continue to hold up and where we think the consensus is wrong on the outlook for interest rates. Also on the show, in an exclusive excerpt from a recent online client briefing on AI, Chief Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood explains where the technology's impact is already showing up in the data, and what happens to the global economy if AI's promised productivity gains never materialise. Related content Capital Economics Key Issues: AI Drop-In: AI's global shockwaves – Macro and market implications