The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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207

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Jun 2026

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Capital Economics, a world-leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight those issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

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June 12, 2026Episode 20730 min

Fed preview: The case for raising rates | Oil's turning point?

Relatively strong US growth, sticky inflation and a resilient labour market have strengthened the case for further Fed tightening. In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown tells David Wilder why rates may rise again before year-end and what to expect from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair.Before that, it's Groundhog Friday, as Donald Trump again talks up an imminent deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But what if this time it really is for real and a US-Iran deal does get done? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses how the outlook could shift if energy starts flowing again, but also explains the economic risks if any deal later falls apart as crude reserves run down.Related contentFed on hold as Warsh faces a fractious FOMCBoE may not follow the central bank crowd in raising ratesBoJ on track to hike despite Ueda’s absence

June 5, 2026Episode 20628 min

Fed hikes, inflation risks and AI stocks

Are we moving towards Fed rate hikes? Even before the release of a strong May US employment report, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joined The Weekly Briefing to explain why shifting dynamics on the FOMC mean the Federal Reserve could emerge from the summer weighing the need for tighter policy to contain inflation.Plus, after another extraordinary surge in AI stocks, Chief Economic Adviser for Financial Markets John Higgins discusses how much further the rally could run, whether current earnings growth is sustainable and what could ultimately burst the stock market bubble.Related contentBar to Fed hikes appears relatively lowCapital Economics events

May 29, 2026Episode 20523 min

A deal at last? What a Hormuz reopening would mean for oil and inflation

This could prove another false dawn, or the US and Iran could finally reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments. But even if the strait reopens, energy flows, oil prices and, by extension, inflation won’t snap back quickly to pre-war levels.Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley join the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to discuss the new normal for global energy markets and what it means for the world economy.They explain why inflation pressures are still likely to build in the weeks ahead, even as market expectations for central bank responses have tempered in recent days. And they discuss how governments and the energy industry are now scrambling to build alternative supply routes and reduce the Strait of Hormuz’s potency as a geopolitical choke point.

May 22, 2026Episode 20430 min

This bond market wobble won't be the last

This latest wobble in the bond market almost certainly won’t be the last. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder on the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss the forces that have driven bond yields to multi-year highs. They examine shifting perceptions around inflation as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on, the fiscal worries gnawing away at investor sentiment across the advanced economies and we're entering a world where inflation settles structurally higher than the 2% era policymakers once took for granted. And with Japan’s yield curve steepening sharply, they also discuss whether investors are beginning to question the Bank of Japan’s grip on reflation. Also on the show, India economist Shilan Shah calls in from Mumbai to discuss how record temperatures and the global energy shock are complicating the Reserve Bank’s efforts to contain inflation pressures. He discusses the risks7 facing the rupee, the prospect of tighter monetary policy, and how the current dilemma compares with crises past. Related contentWatch: Markets Drop-In: AI-driven paradigm shift or dotcom bubble redux? What’s next for equitieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/markets-drop-ai-driven-paradigm-shift-or-dotcom-bubble-redux-whats-next-equitiesRead: Heatwave completes trifecta of risks for Indiahttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/india-economics-update/heatwave-completes-trifecta-risks-indiaExplore: Fiscal Riskshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fiscal-risks

May 15, 2026Episode 20329 min

UK Labour party meltdown, gilt yields and why the bond market always wins

Westminster is gripped by the game of thrones around Labour's slow-mo leadership drama, which could deliver the UK's seventh prime minister in ten years. But for markets and the economy, the stakes are very real. Chief UK Economist Paul Dales tells David Wilder why. He says all the leading contenders to replace Starmer would, to varying degrees, open the spending taps but also explains why the bond market is likely to push back hard. Paul also makes the case for the UK's medium-term outlook looking brighter than many assume, though not because of who's in charge of the country.Also on the show, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the latest activity data suggest the global economy has so far proved surprisingly resilient in the face of the Iran conflict – and why that resilience could soon be tested.

May 8, 2026Episode 20237 min

The Trump-Xi meeting and the limits of a reset | Germany’s overdone pessimism

Donald Trump travels to Beijing next week for a long-awaited summit with Xi Jinping that carries huge geopolitical significance, but one where investors should keep expectations firmly in check. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard join David Wilder to assess the state of the US-China relationship and why any apparent thaw in tensions may prove superficial. They discuss issues including: Why Beijing increasingly sees the US as a power in relative decline, and how that is shaping Chinese strategy; Why the structural forces pushing the US and China apart are likely to outlast any short-term diplomatic reset; What’s driving the recent improvement in China’s economy, and how that could exacerbate global tensions. Also on the show, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham returns from client meetings in Germany to explain why those who had been expecting an economic turnaround last year have been left disappointed, but to also argue that the prevailing gloom around both the German economy and its politics has become excessive.Related content:Read: What would a new PM mean for the UK economy and markets?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-would-new-pm-mean-uk-economy-and-marketsRegister: Drop-In: Is the energy shock supercharging the Chinese export boom?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-energy-shock-supercharging-chinese-export-boomRead: Taking stock of the German fiscal stimulushttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-update/taking-stock-german-fiscal-stimulusRead: Fiscal stimulus won’t fix Germany’s economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/fiscal-stimulus-wont-fix-germanys-economy

April 30, 2026Episode 20135 min

A tough macro backdrop gets tougher. Will equities care?

A day after Brent crude surged above $120 per barrel, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist Jason Tuvey discuss how long the conflict in the Middle East could continue and why Iran’s collapsing economy is not a reliable guide to when the regime might capitulate.Speaking with David Wilder, they also explore how central bankers are navigating the inflation risks posed by a prolonged disruption to energy supply, as well as what the UAE’s departure from OPEC could mean for oil markets and what it signals in a world of intensifying US–China competition.And in a packed week for equities investors, Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann assesses how key Big Tech earnings reports have landed and explains why bonds have not been performing nearly as well as equities.Related contentRead: How long can Iran hold out?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/middle-east-north-africa-economics-update/how-long-can-iran-hold-outRead: Forecasting through the fog of warhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/forecasting-through-fog-war-1

April 24, 2026Episode 20030 min

What if the energy shock gets worse? And what to expect from a Warsh-led Fed?

The Iran conflict is approaching its third month, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and oil is back above $100 per barrel. How safe is the assumption that this will all be resolved soon, and what happens to commodity prices, growth and inflation if it isn’t?In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley join David Wilder to unpack the macro and market assumptions behind our ‘adverse’ conflict scenario. They discuss how far commodity prices could rise and whether that risks tipping the global economy into recession – but also why some of the latest data suggest the initial macro hit from the energy shock may not have been as severe as first feared.Also on the show, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting could mark Jerome Powell’s final one as Chair. With Kevin Warsh waiting in the wings, Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown considers Powell’s legacy, but also the policy implications of a change in Fed leadership. That includes why Warsh could push for a different inflation gauge to target, but also why tensions with the White House may not go away. Related contentRead: Powell’s departure upstaged as Warsh readies Fed revamphttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-fed-watch/powells-departure-upstaged-warsh-readies-fed-revampDrop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Signals from the April meetingshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-bank-england-signals-april-meetingsIran conflict: Global macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflict

April 17, 2026Episode 19935 min

Global imbalances, all over again | Gulf economies in crisis

Global imbalances are back. But how serious is the threat this time, and could they trigger the next phase of global economic instability? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack what is driving balance of payments positions to worrying extremes, why a more fragmented and volatile world raises the stakes, and why Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are unlikely to take meaningful steps to address these tensions when they meet next month.Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Jason Tuvey examines the economic shock hitting Gulf economies as a result of the Middle East conflict, and what it means for their long-term development ambitions.Related contentDrop-In: China’s shock to the eurozone – economic fallout and policy choiceshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-chinas-shock-eurozone-economic-fallout-and-policy-choicesCan China’s trade surplus rise further?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/can-chinas-trade-surplus-rise-furtherWar dealing a heavy blow to the Gulf economieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/middle-east-north-africa-economics-update/war-dealing-heavy-blow-gulf-economies

April 10, 2026Episode 19835 min

A fragile ceasefire: What next for economies and markets?

The latest Weekly Briefing covers the global outlook, financial markets and energy. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the ceasefire in the Middle East means for growth and inflation, how quickly the world economy could recover if it holds, and what happens if fighting resumes.James Reilly, a Senior Economist on our Markets team, joins to run through updated forecasts for equities and bonds, why markets have held up relatively well, and why the stock market highs expected before the war now look out of reach.Plus, in an exclusive clip from a recent client briefing, our Climate & Commodities team explain why restoring oil supply is not as simple as flicking a switch, and the constraints on refined product output.Related Iran conflict: Global macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflictWatch: How the Middle East conflict has changed the price outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-how-middle-east-conflict-has-changed-price-outlookMapping the next stage of the AI rallyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/mapping-next-stage-ai-rallyGet trial access: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/solutions/subscription-products#trial-request