June 14, 20266 min
The Week Ahead (15-19 June '26)
In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days.
Episodes
212
Latest episode
Jun 2026
Language
EN-GB
About the show
In this weekly podcast series, Imogen Bachra along with the NatWest Markets team of rates & markets specialists help investment professionals shape their portfolio views on fixed income, learn how the biggest themes, trends, and events affect bond performance, and get deeper insight into rates markets including the latest analysis & research from the NatWest team.
Listen to episodes
June 12, 202627 min
From Middle East headlines to central bank decisions
This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Ian VanderHorn and Oriane Parmentier to discuss some key central bank decisions. They examine the latest developments from the ECB, previews next week’s Fed and Bank of England meetings, and explore how geopolitical tensions, inflation dynamics and politics are shaping market expectations. Key topics: * The ECB remains data-dependent but has not closed the door on additional rate hikes.* Strong US labour market data complicates the inflation outlook but does not yet point to a significant inflation reacceleration.* The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh will be closely scrutinised for signs of a shift in policy communication.* The Bank of England meeting may appear routine but could influence expectations for July and beyond.* Fiscal and political risks in both the US and UK remain important themes for rates markets in the second half of the year. This episode was recorded on 11 June 2026. You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
June 5, 202642 min
Hawkish talk, headlines and more tariffs
This week on Bondcast, the team examines how fading optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement and renewed tariff discussions are influencing rates markets. With major central bank meetings approaching, the discussion also turns to the outlook for the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and Federal Reserve. Key topics: * ECB rhetoric has become more hawkish, but policymakers are unlikely to commit to a fixed hiking path.* The BoE remains cautious, with centrist policymakers showing little urgency to raise rates.* Fed officials continue to balance inflation and growth risks more carefully than markets may be assuming.* New US tariff proposals could create future headline risk despite limited immediate economic impact.* French political risk is gradually moving back onto investors’ radar ahead of 2027.* Fiscal concerns remain a major structural challenge for the UK, particularly due to high debt servicing costs. Contributors: Imogen Bachra (host), Head of Economics and Markets StrategyOriane Parmentier, European Rates StrategistIan VanderHorn, Economics and Market Strategy at NatWest Markets This episode was recorded on 4 June 2026. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
May 29, 202643 min
Is the Fed changing the rules?
This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Oriane Parmentier and Stuart Sparks unpack the key macro themes dominating fixed income markets following NatWest’s Official Institutions Conference in Edinburgh. With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continuing to drive market volatility, the discussion shifts beyond the headlines to explore how investors are thinking about inflation, growth, central bank reaction functions and fiscal risks across the US, Euro area and UK.Key themes discussedUS: Affordability versus inflationStuart outlines NatWest’s view that the Fed could increasingly focus on growth and real incomes rather than maintaining a rigid 2% inflation target. The team discusses whether higher inflation tolerance may become a feature – rather than a failure – of future policy. Europe: Conditional ECB and structural steepening Oriane discusses why the ECB’s tightening cycle may become increasingly data dependent, and why long-term funding pressures linked to defence, AI and energy transition spending could support steeper curves across Europe.UK: Inflation persistence and fiscal risk Imogen explains why the UK faces a uniquely challenging combination of sticky inflation, aggressive QT and elevated fiscal sensitivity. The conversation also explores why political uncertainty continues to matter disproportionately for gilt markets.This episode was recorded on 28 May 2026.You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
May 15, 202629 min
Number five is alive in long-end rates
In this episode of Bondcast, host Imogen Bachra is joined by global market specialist Ian VanderHorn to unpack the growing political and fiscal risks shaping UK and US rates markets – where 5% yields are now a thing.Key points:* UK political instability following poor Labour local election results* Risks of a Labour leadership challenge and implications for gilt markets* Why markets may be underpricing future UK borrowing* US tariff refund developments and worsening fiscal dynamics* Inflation persistence and implications for Treasury yields* President Trump’s China visit and evolving US-China relationsThis episode was recorded on 14 May 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
May 14, 202651 min
In conversation with Huw Pill
In this special episode of Bondcast, we replay NatWest's live broadcast fireside chat and Q&A with Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, who was joined on stage by Imogen Bachra, NatWest's Head of Economics and Markets Strategy.Recorded on 14 May 2026.
May 8, 202629 min
ECB expected to hike, but less certainty with the Bank of England
This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by Oriane Parmentier to talk about rates in the UK and the euro area. They focus on:- The return of market optimism despite geopolitical risk - ECB outlook and how the market is pricing multiple hikes- Bank of England pricing, as well as fiscal and political risks in the UK- Client sentiment on rate rises in major economies- What to watch next week This episode was recorded on 7 May 2026. You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
May 1, 202625 min
Central banks held rates, but what to take from the details?
This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by economists Kevin Cummins and Giovanni Zanni to talk through their analysis of three central bank decisions to hold rates.Key points:1. Federal Reserve rate hike prospects and dissenting opinions2. European Central Bank’s conditional hawkish stance3. The Bank of England’s cautious outlook and market expectationsThis episode was recorded on 30 April 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
April 24, 202632 min
Central banks may be on hold, but for how long?
This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by economists Kevin Cummins and Giovanni Zanni to talk through their expectations ahead of three imminent central bank meetings.Key points:1. US economic data and consumer resilience2. UK inflation and labor market dynamics3. Fed, BoE and ECB policy forecasts4. UK political risks and fiscal policy5. Ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions on marketsThis episode was recorded on 23 April 2026. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
April 17, 202637 min
Calmer markets, but not a simple reset
This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier unpack why easing geopolitical tensions have lifted risk assets – while rates remain more cautious.They explore the growing disconnect between equities and yields, with US data and Fed expectations back in focus as de-escalation shifts attention away from geopolitics. In the UK, the story looks different: persistent inflation pressures, fiscal risks, and gilt market dynamics suggest yields may stay higher for longer.The episode also dives into a key cross-market debate – why UK and ECB rate expectations are diverging – and whether markets are mispricing the path ahead. Plus, a look at the evolving outlook for the Fed amid political uncertainty, and what a potential shift in leadership could mean for rates.All wrapped up with the key risks to watch next week, from growth data and central bank signals to supply dynamics and the next phase of geopolitical developments.This episode was recorded on 16 April 2026, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html
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