The biggest banks all forecast double-digit Sydney falls
Send us Fan Mail REDOM LIVE: The Reset - Sydney 22-23 Oct and Melbourne 29-30 Oct 2026. 3 hours, 50 seats, $49 a ticket. Get yours here: https://redomlive.au 2026 has been the year property investing reset. Interest rates have gone up 4 times this year, the government has changed the incentives, and an investment boom is reshaping the Australian economy. The playbook that worked between 2020 and 2025 is over. In this episode, Curtis and I go city by city through what the big banks and economists are forecasting for house prices over the next 12 months. I also lay out the big shifts I think will drive property for the rest of this decade, and why picking markets off a data website no longer cuts it. What you'll learn: - What the big banks are forecasting for Sydney house prices over the next 12 months, with forecasts read out on the show ranging from about 10% to 16% lower - How Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide compare, and why Melbourne may be the first market to turn - Why my base case is that capital growth from 2026 to 2030 runs at around half the pace of 2020 to 2025 - Why unemployment and the sector you work in matter more to the next cycle than another rate move - Which parts of the economy look green (tourism, construction, energy, mining, medical) and which look red (consulting, professional and financial services) - Why chasing days on market and stock levels alone is too simplistic now - Why, despite all of this, I'm still optimistic about Australia's long-term future If this helped you see the market differently, subscribe to Australian Property Talk for a new episode every week. #AustralianPropertyTalk #PropertyInvesting #AustralianProperty #HousingMarket #InterestRates Chapters 00:00 Intro 00:41 2026: the year property investing reset 03:02 Prediction 1: capital growth halves to 2030 05:04 Sydney: what the banks are forecasting 10:07 Prediction 2: unemployment 10:57 Prediction 3: the green and red sectors 14:24 Prediction 4: technology reshapes the economy 17:08 Why data-website investing no longer works 17:54 Why I'm still optimistic about Australia 20:35 Melbourne forecasts 21:53 Brisbane, mining and the AI boom 25:08 Perth and Adelaide 26:16 Recap: where Curtis and I agree 27:56 REDOM LIVE events 29:46 Final thoughts This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate. Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

