Mid-Year Market Update: The Market Shifts Nobody Sees Coming
While much of the housing conversation in 2026 has focused on slower sales, elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges, industry leaders say a bigger issue is emerging behind the scenes: a future housing supply shortage. Tim Arnold of D.R. Horton, Cara Lavender of John Burns Research and Consulting and Jim Jacobi of Parkland Communities, join host Carol Morgan on Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio for a mid-year market update on looming lot shortages, zoning challenges, affordability concerns and the factors shaping housing supply across metro Atlanta. The Biggest Housing Story Nobody Is Talking About “In my opinion, the biggest secret in housing today is the lack of new zonings that are occurring,” said Jacobi. He explained that numerous municipalities have either implemented zoning moratoriums or significantly slowed approvals, creating a development pipeline problem that could emerge over the next several years. Although today’s market remains slower than the pandemic-era housing boom, builders continue selling homes and working through existing lot inventories. The challenge is that many communities are not approving enough future projects to replace what is currently being built. “People probably do not recognize what is happening out there with the lot supply market,” said Arnold. “There is going to be a struggle for folks to get lot supply.” Labor and Building Capacity Could Become the Next Challenge With in-migration at historically low levels and major infrastructure projects such as data centers competing for skilled trades, Lavender said labor constraints could quickly become a concern if housing demand accelerates. “If a demand faucet turns on, do we have the lots available?” she said. “But in that same breath, do we have the labor and the building products capacity available to support an uptick in production?” Slower production volumes have helped ease labor pressures. However, the industry may not be prepared to rapidly increase construction activity if market conditions improve. Spring Selling Season Falls Short of Expectations While future supply concerns remain top of mind, today’s housing market continues to face near-term challenges. Lavender described the spring selling season as “underwhelming.” Uncertain demand and hesitant consumers continue to weigh on market performance. Builders are maintaining sales through pricing strategies and incentives, but those efforts are coming at the expense of profit margins. Senate Bill 447 Could Improve Georgia’s Permitting Process Senate Bill 447 could provide a welcome boost for Georgia’s housing industry by improving transparency and accountability in the permitting process. The legislation increases visibility into permit reviews, requires written explanations for permit denials and establishes timelines for local governments to respond to applications. It could also help reduce delays that often add significant costs to housing projects. “It’ll speed up the building and land development permits,” said Arnold. Build-to-Rent Gains Recognition as an Asset Class Federal housing legislation could significantly affect the build-to-rent sector. Proposed revisions to the Road to Housing Act would provide greater certainty for investors and developers while reinforcing build-to-rent’s role in the broader housing market. One of the most notable aspects of the legislation is its recognition of build-to-rent as a distinct asset class, a change that could strengthen investor confidence and support additional capital investment. Greater certainty and increased investment could help expand housing supply by encouraging additional build-to-rent development in high-demand markets. Gwinnett County Offers a Warning Sign From January through April 2025, unincorporated Gwinnett County issued approximately 2,800 new home permits. During that same period, local officials approved zoning for only about 1,400 future housing units. “So they only zoned about half as many lots as what has been built in the same time period,” said Jacobi. This imbalance raises questions about where future housing inventory will come from if current approval trends continue. Ongoing zoning moratoriums, elevated land costs and community opposition to new development could further constrain housing supply and place additional pressure on affordability. Tune in next week for Part 2 of this market update, where the panel takes a deeper look at affordability, infrastructure challenges and what housing leaders expect over the next several years. About Parkland Communities Parkland Communities, Inc., the parent company of build-to-rent home builder, Parkland Residential, is a privately owned, multifaceted real estate development and investment firm specializing in residential properties. With over 20 years of experience in the industry, Parkland Communities Inc. uses the latest market data, technology and established relationships to strategically secure new development opportunities in Atlanta’s most desirable locations. The company’s hands-on philosophy has made it a proven leader in the industry with a trusted reputation among elected officials, municipal staff, neighborhood associations, bankers and home builders. For more information on Parkland Communities, visit www.ParklandCo.com. About D.R. Horton As one of metro Atlanta’s leading home builders, D.R. Horton offers new homes across a variety of price points, product types and locations throughout the region. The company builds communities designed to meet the needs of first-time homebuyers, move-up purchasers and those seeking low-maintenance living, with a focus on quality construction, thoughtful design and attainable homeownership opportunities. Backed by the resources of America’s largest home builder, D.R. Horton continues to play a significant role in expanding housing options across Georgia’s growing markets. Learn more about D.R. Horton at www.DRHorton.com. About John Burns Research and Consulting John Burns Research and Consulting provides data-driven insights across every housing sector, including new home construction, resale, single-family rental and build-to-rent. It helps companies make informed decisions and mitigate risk in order to identify opportunities in a complex market. From M&A projects to consumer surveys, the firm covers every aspect of the housing industry. Learn more about John Burns Research and Consulting at www.JBREC.com. Podcast Thanks Thank you to Denim Marketing for sponsoring Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio. Known as a trendsetter, Denim Marketing has been blogging since 2006 and podcasting since 2011. Contact them when you need quality, original content for social media, public relations, blogging, email marketing and promotions. A comfortable fit for companies of all shapes and sizes, Denim Marketing understands marketing strategies are not one-size-fits-all. The agency works with your company to create a perfectly tailored marketing strategy that will suit your needs and niche. Try Denim Marketing on for size by calling 770-383-3360 or by visiting www.DenimMarketing.com. About Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio, presented by Denim Marketing, highlights the movers and shakers in the Atlanta real estate industry – the home builders, developers, Realtors and suppliers working to provide the American dream for Atlantans. For more information on how you can be featured as a guest, contact Denim Marketing at 770-383-3360 or fill out the Atlanta Real Estate Forum contact form. Subscribe to the Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio podcast on iTunes, and if you like this week’s show, be sure to rate it. Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio was recently honored on FeedSpot’s Top 100 Atlanta Podcasts, ranking 16th overall and number one out of all ranked real estate podcasts. The post Mid-Year Market Update: The Market Shifts Nobody Sees Coming appeared first on Atlanta Real Estate Forum.




