ASEAN Speaks

Hosted by Maybank

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355

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Oct 2026

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ASEAN Speaks by Maybank presents conversations with market analysts and thought leaders across Southeast Asia on topics covering equities, fixed income, forex, economics, sustainability, and current affairs that impact regional markets.

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October 26, 202620 min

Cooling Inflation, Resilient Earnings

This week, our Host, Thilan Wickramasinghe opens to a market still struggling after a few volatile weeks, with mega-cap earnings adding to the uncertainty and President Trump threatening to bomb Iran again, keeping oil prices in focus. Against this backdrop, the team looks at why Singapore’s September inflation unexpectedly cooled, and where value is emerging. The show leads with Thilan’s preview of the Singapore banks’ 3Q results, due 4-6 November. He expects slightly weaker quarter-on-quarter earnings on softer trading income, partly offset by wealth management and loan fees, with net interest margins bottoming in 3Q and inflecting in 4Q. He sees scope for marginal loan growth and margin guidance upgrades at UOB and OCBC, and ranks OCBC first, then DBS, then UOB. Next up, our Economist Brian Lee explains why core inflation eased to 2.0% in September rather than rising to 2.3% as expected, driven by a telecoms price war and softer retail prices. He trims 2026 core and headline inflation forecasts to 1.8% and 2.0%, sees inflation near its peak despite oil at US$115 and Super El Niño risks, and expects MAS to hold its current pace of S$NEER appreciation. In REITs and industrials, our analyst Krishna covers the Keppel universe. He stays positive on Keppel Corp’s S$611m divestment of its 51% stake in Keppel South Central, which crystallises about S$380m of fair value gains, and on Keppel REIT’s capital recycling. He keeps a BUY on Keppel DC REIT after 12% YoY DPU growth, citing about 5% DPU CAGR and a combined 9-10% yield plus growth, and shares takeaways from his visit to the Keppel Sakra power plant. Our Regional Strategist then makes the case for turning more positive on ASEAN telcos, citing defensive earnings and 5-8% dividend yields. Picks include Singtel (targeting S$2.1-2.5bn operating profit by FY30 from about S$1.5bn), True Corp in Thailand, Axiata in Malaysia, XL Axiata in Indonesia and PLDT in the Philippines. Finally, our Chart Guy flags a trading BUY on Hong Kong Land, which is in a new base-building phase above its 200-day SMA, and a trading SELL on PC Partner, whose uptrend is showing signs of exhaustion. Wishing you a profitable trading week ahead!

October 19, 202631 min

Hazy Outlook or Potential Buy-in?

This week, our Host, Seng Yeow opens to a bruising week for tech, with the Nasdaq down 4.5% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index losing more than 11% as investors question the returns on AI infrastructure spending, while CoreWeave’s 2032 bonds trading near 82 cents on the dollar flagged stress in credit markets. Against this backdrop, the team asks whether Singapore banks are oversold and how far rising rates should worry investors. The show leads with our FX Research Head Saktiandi Supaat, who expects the Fed to hold in October, with a possible 25bp hike in December, and sees USD strength fading by 2H27. He explains why MAS held policy steady, with the S$NEER still about 1.7% above the midpoint, forecasts 1.265 against the USD by year-end and 1.24 by end-2027, and prefers the ringgit and Thai baht, while staying selective on the rupiah and peso. Next up, our Head of Research Thilan Wickramasinghe, in a pre-recorded segment, argues that Singapore banks’ correction is manageable. He estimates mark-to-market losses would trim CET1 ratios by only 17-29bps against buffers of about 16%, sees limited risk of net interest income guidance cuts after record August loan growth of 14%, and keeps OCBC as his preferred fundamental pick. Finally, our Regional Chartist Amirul Rusydy walks through the technicals. He sees the S&P 500 uptrend intact above 7,560, the US 10-year yield showing weakness, and possible bottom-fishing in the CSI 300. In Singapore, he picks UOB as the fundamental choice and DBS as the technical choice on a breakout above 75, with a technical BUY on Yangzijiang Shipbuilding. He is also bullish near-term on Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust, while Grab’s downtrend remains intact below 3.20. Wishing you a profitable trading week ahead!

October 12, 202628 min

Rate Hikes and AI Reality Check

This week, our Host, Seng Yeow opens to a sharp reminder of how sensitive the AI trade has become, with OpenAI disclosing September annualised revenue approaching US$50bn rather than the US$70bn previously indicated, sending Nvidia, Oracle and major semiconductor names down 3-5% intraday. Against this backdrop, the team asks what it means for Singapore and the wider AI value chain, as the local economy rides the AI boom while sticky inflation keeps MAS on a tightening path. The show leads with our Economist Hak Bin Chua, who expects MAS to raise the S$NEER slope by 25bp to 150bp at its 14 October meeting. He sees 3Q GDP growth of 5.5%, down from 6.1% in 1H, and a firm Singapore dollar, forecasting 1.265 against the USD by year-end and 1.24 by end-2027. Next up, our Head of Research Thilan Wickramasinghe, explains why Singapore banks sold off despite rising rates, calling it a valuation correction after a roughly 45% YTD rally rather than an earnings downturn. He sees limited margin and credit concerns and keeps OCBC and DBS as top picks. In telcos, our analyst Husseini argues that Singtel is a differentiated AI enabler, securing customer contracts (S$600m) before committing GPU capex (S$300m). He also sees Optus as a nearer-term catalyst, with EBIT potentially doubling from S$500m to S$1bn by FY30, and little ASEAN risk from Starlink’s spectrum move. He keeps a BUY with a S$5.21 target price, over 25% upside. Our Hong Kong Strategist Ben Ho then argues that established platforms hold the edge in a capital-constrained AI race. He prefers Tencent, Alibaba and China Mobile, is selective on Baidu and GDS, and urges caution on expensive chip plays and pure model labs. Finally, our analyst Xuan Hao returns on palm oil, arguing that El Niño, slowing supply growth and rising biodiesel mandates point to a supercycle, and that Bumitama Agri offers purer upstream leverage, with CPO at about 85% of revenue. Wishing you a profitable trading week ahead!

September 28, 202618 min

Winners of Sticky Inflation

This week, our Host, Thilan Wickramasinghe opens to renewed bond weakness and rising oil, with President Trump rejecting Iran's Straits of Hormuz offer and higher energy costs feeding through to Singapore's inflation prints. Against this backdrop, the team hunts for winners from the higher-rate environment across the region. The show leads with Singapore macro, where August core inflation rose to 2.2% and headline to 2.3%, prompting upward forecast revisions. Our team now expects MAS to tighten with a 25bps slope increase in October, with 3-month SORA forecast at 1.6% by end-2026 and 1.85% by end-2027. Next up, our REITs Analyst Krishna reports from an investor roadshow that Singapore REIT buyers are turning more selective, with yields around 7% featuring in discussions, but says higher rates do not undermine the case. Preferred names include CICT, Ascendas REIT, Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust, OUE REIT, Ascott Trust and Parkway Life REIT. Our Philippines Head of Research Kervin then explains why higher rates make Philippine banks worth a second look, with every 25bp BSP hike lifting NIMs by 5-9bps and loan growth now at double digits. His top pick is BDO, on 0.8x P/B and 13-14% ROE. Turning to tech, our analyst Jarick Seet discusses CSE Global, which has secured around SGD190m of new orders, including power distribution centres for the Calcasieu Pass LNG expansion and a follow-on for a Google-operated data centre power hub in Wyoming. He expects 2H26 revenue up 30-40% with stronger margins, flags a potential US$250-350m AWS order by November-December, and calls the 10% three-month dip a buying opportunity. Our Plantations Analyst Chee Ting then explains why Indonesia's new agrarian reform law prompted a sector downgrade to neutral and cuts to Bumitama Agri and First Resources, preferring Malaysian planters SD Guthrie, Sarawak Oil Palms and Genting Plantations. Finally, our Chart Guy flags trading BUYs on Pan-United and Multi-Chem. Wishing you a profitable trading week ahead!

September 21, 202618 min

Domestic strength, regional opportunities

This week, our Host, Thilan Wickramasinghe opens to a broadly positive risk backdrop, with a "very successful" US-China meeting ahead of next week's Trump-Xi summit lifting Asian equities and Wall Street futures. Against this backdrop, the team hunts for structural winners in Singapore and the region. The show leads with our REITs Analyst Miaomiao Liu, fresh back from visiting Sasseur REIT's China outlets, covering the differentiated Liu (flagship, premium-skewed) and Bishan (mass-market) assets, the stock's 11% pullback despite outperforming the FTSE ST REIT Index by nearly 30%, and three emerging positives: trading-down-not-out consumer behaviour, a fast-growing VIP omni-channel base, and one of the sector's strongest balance sheets. Next up is our Economist Brian Lee, who unpacks August's NODX surge — nominal growth of 46% YoY, the strongest pace in nearly 40 years — driven by AI-related server and semiconductor demand, alongside accelerating loan growth pushing up domestic rates, a 3-month SORA forecast rising to 1.6% by end-2026, and his call for MAS to hold policy steady at the October meeting. In corporate action, Thilan runs through our Telcos Analyst Husseini's BUY on Grab, unpacking the US$1.5bn Atomi acquisition, its potential US$200-220m EBITDA contribution by 2028, and a raised 2028 adjusted EBITDA target of US$1.7bn, alongside our new initiation on ISF Group, a Malaysian water-infrastructure play riding the data centre boom, rated BUY with a RM0.98 target price and roughly 33% core profit CAGR through 2028. Wishing you a profitable trading week ahead!

September 14, 202619 min

ASEAN Risk/Reward

This week, our Host, Thilan Wickramasinghe opens to mounting AI and geopolitical risk, with a slew of AI founders warning on the need to slow model development stoking fears over AI spending, while intensifying Middle East tensions push oil another leg higher. Against this backdrop, the team hunts for risk-reward across ASEAN. The show leads with our Strategist Anand's latest ASEAN strategy, where he stays selective despite broadly positive 2Q26 GDP surprises, keeping Singapore and Malaysia OVERWEIGHT, upgrading the Philippines to NEUTRAL alongside Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, and flagging financials, energy security and Super El Niño as cross-border themes. Next up, our Banking & Finance Analyst, Faiq Asad, joins to unpack brightening prospects for Indonesian banks, addressing strong July loan growth of 13.6% YoY, system liquidity as BI securities yields moderate, NIM pressure, and his top picks for investors looking to add exposure now. Moreover, our Technology Analyst, Jarick Seet, discusses Frencken's SGD100m placement and near-18% share pullback, alongside Marco Polo Marine's sizable SGD139m RTO of Fuji Offset Plate Manufacturing, maintaining his BUY with 86% upside and outlining the key catalysts ahead. Finally, our Healthcare Analyst, Eric Ong, examines Singapore's living sector, covering Centurion's Johor worker-accommodation acquisition and its accretion to the Group, plus Coliwoo's new Changi co-living property and expansion outlook. Wishing you a profitable trading week ahead!

September 7, 202618 min

Hormuz Heat, Fed Fears & Keppel's New Story

This week, our Host, Thilan Wickramasinghe opens to rising geopolitical and inflation risk, with US-Iran attacks in the Straits of Hormuz prompting Goldman to flag possible USD120 oil, alongside a stronger US jobs print stoking Fed rate hike odds. Against this backdrop, the team hunts for structural winners in Singapore. The show leads with our Bank's Analyst Desmond Ch'ng's roundup of Malaysian banks post-results, covering 1H26's pressure points, the 2027 outlook, and his top picks. Next up is our new initiation on Keppel Corp, where our REITs and Industrials Analylst, Krishna, argues it's no longer the conglomerate investors grew up with. He rates it BUY, citing its asset-light shift toward asset management, broad AI/data centre infrastructure exposure, planned divestments, and dividends rising from 42 to 49 cents by FY28. Execution risk remains the key watch item. In the terms of tech, our analyst Jarick discusses two small caps: Addvalue, where a new USD5m order and a US government-linked partnership underpin his BUY despite a 35% one-month rally, and IsoTeam, addressing FY26 misses, project delays, the stalled drone-painting catalyst, and whether the stock offers value now. Finally, our Telcos Analyst Hussaini Saifee examines Foodpanda-Grab dynamics, arguing the real question is who ends up owning Foodpanda, not whether it survives — pointing to Singapore's two-player market as proof of its strategic value. He outlines three buyer scenarios (Uber, ShopeeFood, Meituan), notes the main risk sits in Grab's Deliveries segment rather than its sturdier Mobility business, flags currency and Uber-stake overhangs, but keeps a BUY given resilient growth and a ~33% YTD share price decline. Wishing you a profitable trading week ahead!

August 31, 202622 min

Godzilla El Niño: Trading the Heat

In this episode, host Thilan Wickramasinghe previews a cautious start to markets, with Asian sentiment weighed down by hawkish weekend comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that have lifted bets on a rate hike next month, alongside fresh Middle East tensions after new US strikes on Iran. Singapore bucks the trend, however, with the STI in the green; softer manufacturing numbers mask underlying strength, as the AI complex and domestic construction spending keep momentum going, a trend increasingly visible in corporate earnings. Meanwhile, our telecom analyst, Hussaini, reports back from SingTel's investor corporate day last week, coming away more convinced in his BUY rating, and explains what surprised him and why he sees this as the right entry point for investors. In addition, REITs analyst Krishna wraps up the June-quarter results season for Singapore REITs, highlighting the sector's key earnings trends and the team's top stock picks for the quarter. Lastly, our Head of Regional Equity Research, Anand Pathmakanthan, unveils a new regional investment theme built around a forecast "Godzilla" El Niño, with over 80% odds of a Strong to Very Strong event by 4Q26 threatening water security, food inflation, and energy security across ASEAN. His actionable basket spans plantations (Genting Plantations, Sarawak Oil Palms), water infrastructure (Gamuda, EngTex), power and utilities (Mega First, CK Power, Maynilad), food and beverage names (Olam, Universal Robina, Mayora Indah, Muangthai Capital, Osotspa), and defensive retailers like Sheng Siong and Puregold. Wishing you a profitable trading week ahead!

August 24, 202621 min

Macro Tailwinds, Plantations and Large Cap Outlooks

In this episode, host Thilan Wickramasinghe previews a pivotal week for markets, with investors watching Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks for clues on rates, elevated oil prices, multi-decade-high bond yields, and Nvidia's results for signs the AI rally can extend. At home, Singapore's macro readings stay strong, with the construction pipeline getting a further boost from the Prime Minister's National Day Rally speech. Meanwhile, plantation analyst Chee Ting Ong reviews the CPO price rally, noting an uneven El Niño impact: rainfall deficits south of the equator threaten 2027 output more than Malaysia's, keeping prices volatile into year-end before trending higher early next year. He keeps BUY calls on First Resources and Bumitama Agri, and flags Sarawak Oil Palms and Genting Plantations as his top regional picks, the latter also benefiting from its Johor land bank. Economist Brian of Maybank Research unpacks Singapore's NODX, up 24.2% in July on electronics and AI-linked demand, prompting an upgrade to the 2026 forecast to 18%. He plays down blanket-tariff risk from the US transshipment crackdown, seeing it as an opportunity for Singapore, and highlights the NDP's $62,000 child support package and major land-reclamation plans as reinforcing a multi-year construction boom. Thilan makes the case for SATS despite its 15% share-price drop, pointing to 11% revenue growth, resilient cargo volumes, and margin pressure he views as cyclical rather than structural, maintaining BUY with a SGD5.09 target. REITs analyst Krishna covers CLI's stronger-than-expected first half, driven by lower costs and a tax reversal, and looks ahead to SGD7–9 billion in value-unlocking opportunities and an upcoming Investor Relations Day as catalysts, keeping the BUY call intact. The Chart Guy also flags fresh trading buy ideas on CSC Global and City Developments. Have a profitable trading week!

August 17, 202619 min

Strong Macro Drives Earning Boost

In this episode, host Thilan Wickramasinghe discusses soft US economic data, a weaker US dollar and Maybank Research’s upgraded Singapore growth outlook. Singapore’s 2026 GDP growth forecast has been raised to 5.2%, supported by AI manufacturing, electronics and precision engineering. This growth is also feeding through to corporate earnings. Krishna reviews the industrial sector’s mixed first-half performance. ST Engineering continues to benefit from global defence spending, dual-use technologies and its digital business. Sembcorp Industries has been upgraded to BUY on expectations of a second-half earnings recovery, contributions from its Australian acquisition and additional generation capacity. The episode also examines AEM and UMS, where AI-related semiconductor spending is translating into stronger revenue, margins and earnings. AEM is further along its customer ramp-up, while UMS is investing in capacity to support future demand. Hussaini Saifee discusses Olam’s weaker-than-expected results and the resilience of its core OFI business. Lower interest costs, better capital efficiency and further asset divestments support his continued BUY call. Miaomiao Liu joins to discuss her initiation of coverage on Info-Tech Systems with a BUY call. She highlights its core HR management platform, regional expansion and growing accounting, CRM and AI training businesses. Its net cash position also provides room for higher dividends or share buybacks. Key risks include its reliance on government subsidies and weaker training demand after SkillsFuture credits expire. The Chart Guy also shares fresh trading ideas on ISDN Holdings and Nordic Group. Stay tuned!

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