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Every Sunday, Anglia Advisors founder Simon Brady CFP® CETF® recaps the week in financial markets. simonbrady.substack.com

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August 16, 20265 min

Snoozer.

Not a great weekend for US diplomacy. Iran threw ice-cold water on any lingering hopes of an imminent resolution to the war by issuing a list of demands (most of which were complete non-starters in the eyes of the Trump administration) that the US would need to agree to before the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened. Israel then piled on, formally rejecting Trump’s proposed Gaza peace plan. The week began with a snoozer on Monday , despite a spike in oil prices resulting from the weekend’s setbacks to hopes for any impending stability in the Middle East. The indexes mostly trudged along aimlessly all day, closing slightly lower with traders’ focus increasingly turning to important inflation data coming out later in the week. Trump responded to Iran’s weekend demands with a made-up list of his own, knowing full well that every condition would be unacceptable. This is all just ridiculous PR theater from both sides, the actual work is being done behind the scenes and Pakistani officials hinted on Tuesday that there may have been some incremental progress in talks. Stocks hugged the flatline most of the day and again closed a touch lower for the session but still well within striking distance of the prior week’s latest all-time record high for the S&P 500 index . CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer surprised to the upside with their earnings reports after hours and their stock prices jumped. CPI numbers for July, released pre-market on Wednesday , showed annualized retail inflation ticking slightly higher to 3.4% in line with expectations, which was deemed to gave the Fed a greater excuse to do nothing with the Fed Funds Rate and sent the market probabilities of no change next month spinning higher (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below). Stocks and bonds exhaled and broadly welcomed the benign report, but the previous evening’s solid earnings were the main drivers of a nice jump in Big Tech/AI names that helped take the S&P 500 back to the brink of new record high territory. Following another wild session in South Korea (which is a roller coaster of an AI-driven market right now), CPI’s baby brother, US PPI which can often be a predictor of forthcoming CPI, came out on Thursday morning and showed wholesale inflation running at 4.7% annualized. This was a meaningful cooling-off from the previous month’s huge spike, but right in line with expectations. The indexes moved meaningfully higher as the bulls were emboldened by the week’s relatively tame inflation data and the S&P 500 reached another new all-time record high, once again bolstered by another really good day for Big Tech/AI names. Short term interest rates eased as the perceived need for a Fed rate hike in September diminished further. A relatively tranquil week in terms of price volatility ended on a somewhat downbeat note on Friday after data showed that Retail Sales last month fell by the most in over a year, particularly at online stores and auto dealerships as Americans remain miserable and highly pessimistic in the face of the ongoing war and its effect on gas prices, the economy in general and the outlook for inflation in particular with tariffs top of mind, according to the latest consumer sentiment numbers. Stocks fell back a touch from their all-time highs, but still managed to finish in the green for the third straight week. Some other things I’m thinking about .. * If you are searching for reasons why long term interest rates remain so stubbornly high (last week’s US Treasury 30-year bond auction saw the highest interest paid in over a quarter of a century), look no further than the fact that the interest cost alone of servicing the exploding latest US national debt of $40,000,000,000,000 now exceeds the annual defense budget. * Trump and his fawning minion, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, asked us all to not believe our own eyes last week by claiming without any evidence that the wealth of private satellite data that is conclusively showing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowing to a trickle was somehow totally wrong and made the ludicrous claim that oil was flowing out of the region at a rate of 15-20 million barrels a day. Trump also threatened to somehow claim the Strait as “a territory of the United States” . Energy traders just rolled their eyes and went back to pricing the commodity based on actual facts and reliable data, shrugging off what was clearly just a pathetic attempt to try and allay voter concerns about prices at the pump ahead the midterms, since Americans have never in history paid this much for a gallon of gas in the peak driving month of August. Oil prices rose by more than 5% last week (see LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS below). Anglia Advisors clients are now able to access customized model portfolios in managed investment accounts, many of which carry no management fee - contact me for more details. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me. ARTICLE OF THE WEEK .. “Scale your investment decisions to the probability of outcomes” is just one of the many nuggets of solid investment advice contained in these short videos featuring the wonderful Barry Ritholtz who sat down for a quick chat with Vanguard. Please take some time to watch these if you are in any way interested in becoming a better investor. Part 1 Part 2 .. AND I QUOTE .. “I think the reality is that for the foreseeable future, if not forever, Iran will control the Strait of Hormuz.” Wendy Sherman, former US deputy Secretary of State on Bloomberg TV LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS: * SPY , a US Large Cap ETF , tracks the S&P 500 index , made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 0.4% last week, is higher by 3.4% over the past month, higher by 3.8% over the last three months and is up by 13.9% so far this year. * IWM , a US Small Cap ETF , tracks the Russell 2000 index , made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It rose 1.2% last week, is higher by 3.2% over the past month, higher by 7.3% over the last three months and is up by 23.9% so far this year. * VXUS , an International Non-US ETF , tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index , made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It rose 0.6% last week, is higher by 4.3% over the past month, higher by 3.2% over the last three months and is up by 16.3% so far this year. * BRENT CRUDE OIL .. $88.90 (up by 5.4% last week) * GOLD .. $4,332 (up by 0.9% last week) * BITCOIN .. $62,910 (down by 3.5% last week) All data courtesy of finviz.com as of Friday’s close. INTEREST RATES: * FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago) * PRIME RATE ** 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago) * 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.86% (3.87% a week ago) * 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.17% (4.19% a week ago) * 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.36% (4.35% a week ago) * 10 YEAR TREASURY *** 4.68% (4.65% a week ago) * 20 YEAR TREASURY 5.25% (5.20% a week ago) * 30 YEAR TREASURY 5.25% (5.19% a week ago) Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close. * Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates. ** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Moving in lockstep with the Fed Funds interest rate , this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates. AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE: * 6.67% One week ago: 6.69%, one month ago: 6.53%, one year ago: 6.58% Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS: Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on September 16th ? * 0.25% higher than now .. 32% probability (43% a week ago) * Unchanged from now .. 68% probability (57% a week ago) * 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago) With three more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026? * One increase, 45% probability (a week ago: one increase, 45% probability) Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE: * 73% One week ago: 73%, one month ago: 63%, one year ago: 42% Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close. This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index . A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend. FEAR & GREED INDEX : “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett. Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close. The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand. Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment. Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal. WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes. The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors. Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place. Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein. Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post. Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here . If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

August 9, 20265 min

Dancing In The Dark.

Following Trump’s latest flip-flop over the weekend as he continued to desperately search in vain for an off-ramp to the highly unpopular war that he started over five months ago, Iran accused him of “psychological warfare” . An exasperated Wall Street would probably agree. Traders are dancing in the dark . Trying to get a handle on what the plans are, if any, for bringing this conflict (and the resulting energy price volatility) to a suitable and sustainable conclusion is proving impossible and traders are forced to spend their time these days reacting to raging social media posts as well as fantastical press releases and impromptu news conferences that are often jam-packed with utter nonsense and shameless lies. Oil prices tanked and interest rates eased after Trump’s climbdown from his frenzied apocalyptic threats which had included promises of “decapitation” , offering support for both stocks and bonds which both rallied hard when Wall Street opened on Monday and kept up a positive momentum all day. Big Tech stocks enjoyed a particularly dazzling session with dip-buyers going all-in. The orgy of tech stock bargain-hunting intensified on Tuesday , boosted by sensational pre-market earnings reports from Palantir and giant AI beneficiary, Caterpillar and the indexes, especially the tech-heavy NASDAQ-100 , experienced another fabulous session with the S&P 500 index notching a new all-time record high for the first time since June 2nd. After the close SpaceX, thus far a total dumpster fire of an investment that has essentially been in free-fall for almost its entire existence as a publicly-traded stock, reported almost half a billion dollars in losses in Q2 and colossal AI spending plans and AMD surprised Wall Street with a weak outlook. Both stocks got slammed. Trump assured us of a deal with Iran “within hours” , but Wall Street wasn’t going to fall for that again and when markets opened on Wednesday , the dip-buyers took a breather and stocks cooled off despite solid earnings and bright outlooks from heavyweights Eli Lilly and Disney. The indexes all pulled back a bit by the close. After all of Trump’s bombastic fanfare, for the umpteenth time a promised resolution failed to materialize, indeed in the end the US was not even party to the only announced deal of the day as Iran and Oman agreed on a proposed Strait of Hormuz toll-based shipping route which excludes US and Israeli vessels. 2026’s best-performing stock, Sandisk (up 350%), missed lofty earnings estimates after the bell and got spanked. The effect was felt in Asia where the tech-heavy South Korean market crashed again. Also on Wall Street’s mind on Thursday was upcoming employment data and the fallout and attempted damage control from the badly-botched start to the reign of Fed chairman Kevin Warsh (see my report from last week and .. AND I QUOTE .. below), including the rather alarming revelation that Trump has been constantly calling him since his appointment. The early-week monster rally continued to run out of steam and, for the second session in a row, the indexes closed fractionally lower. The Jobs Report on Friday morning was a complicated puzzle, with shockingly negative net job creation in the month of July and wages continuing to lag inflation, but the shrinking overall workforce meant that the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.1%. Bets on a Fed rate hike in September were pared back (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below), so interest rates sank and stocks and bonds bounced on the news with the S&P 500 again returning to all-time record high territory to close out a very solid week, the index’s best five-day showing since April. Some other things I’m thinking about .. * Despite last week’s tech recovery, it is large-cap, high quality, high profitability, value-focused stocks and profitable small caps with free cash flow that are currently "paying" investors to take equity risk from a valuation perspective, while tech-heavy, AI-sensitive, growth-focused names, from loss-making small firms to mega-cap companies, are not really "rewarding risk" right now. The biggest portfolio downside risk clearly lies with the NASDAQ, where there is no real cushion left if the AI spending narrative stumbles again or if the 10-year Treasury yield starts threatening to break through 5.00% again. * Meme stock “investors” who still rely on TikTok and YouTube nonsense for their investment advice continue to hemorrhage money with GameStop last week falling to its lowest level in years. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me. ARTICLE OF THE WEEK .. The really smart people over at Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) have produced a goldmine of a video outlining financial planning considerations for those in their 20s, 30s and 40s that very much aligns with my own approach. Definitely worth your time. Anglia Advisors clients are now able to access customized model portfolios , including from Dimensional Fund Advisors, in managed investment accounts - contact me for more details. .. AND I QUOTE .. “[Treasury Secretary] Bessent and [Fed chairman] Warsh are a double whammy to global markets that investors can’t ignore.” Rajeev De Mello at Gama Asset Management, on growing bond market concerns about the recent direction of US central bank policy, Fed independence from political interference and the possible re-emergence of global bond vigilantes . LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS: Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com * SPY , a US Large Cap ETF , tracks the S&P 500 index , made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 3.5% last week, is higher by 5.1% over the last three months and is up by 14.0% so far this year. * IWM , a US Small Cap ETF , tracks the Russell 2000 index , made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It rose 3.1% last week, is higher by 6.4% over the last three months and is up by 23.0% so far this year. * VXUS , an International Non-US ETF , tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index , made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It rose 3.0% last week, is higher by 2.5% over the last three months and is up by 16.2% so far this year. Data shown is total return (including dividends) INTEREST RATES: * FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago) * PRIME RATE ** 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago) * 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.87% (3.83% a week ago) * 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.19% (4.28% a week ago) * 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.35% (4.45% a week ago) * 10 YEAR TREASURY *** 4.65% (4.75% a week ago) * 20 YEAR TREASURY 5.20% (5.28% a week ago) * 30 YEAR TREASURY 5.19 % (5.27% a week ago) Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close. * Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates. ** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Moving in lockstep with the Fed Funds interest rate , this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates. AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE: * 6.69% One week ago: 6.66%, one month ago: 6.47%, one year ago: 6.63% Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS: Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on September 16th ? * 0.25% higher than now .. 43% probability (72% a week ago) * Unchanged from now .. 57% probability (28% a week ago) * 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago) With three more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026? * One increase, 45% probability (a week ago: one increase, 41% probability) Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE: * 73% One week ago: 67%, one month ago: 63%, one year ago: 42% Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close. This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index . A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend. FEAR & GREED INDEX : “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett. Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close. The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand. Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment. Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal. WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes. The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors. Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place. Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein. Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post. Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here . If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

August 2, 20266 min

Poking The Bear.

Traders were very much on edge all weekend, bracing for a frenetic week with multiple impactful earnings reports, a Fed interest rate-setting meeting, tariffs suddenly front and center again, $100 oil and who knows what from an increasingly erratic Trump. Conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that US foreign policy and military strategy is now being dictated by the interplay between the oil price and the election calendar and the main reason for Sunday’s pause in US airstrikes was that the “100/4” threshold had been breached again ($100+ oil and $4.00+ at the pump) with the midterms on the horizon and “coincidentally” right before a Fed interest rate decision. Markets got off to a strong start on Monday with the stock indexes staging an early relief rally as oil prices fell back sharply. But a wobble quickly set in as chip makers got hammered again on growing fears that Chinese AI competition may flood the market with cheaper and more powerful products along with worries about persistent circular financing and the indexes closed essentially unchanged. The price of Nvidia, the largest component stock in large cap indexes, fell so hard that by lunchtime it was no longer the world’s most valuable company and Apple was top dog again. The chip rout deepened overnight in Asia as AI greed turned to fear, with the South Korean market crashing by 11%. But solid earnings from the likes of Coca-Cola, Ford, Paypal and Boeing impressed Wall Street on Tuesday and, as the plunge in semiconductor stocks eased moderately, the S&P 500 index drifted slightly higher, while the NASDAQ-100 closed marginally in the red before the baton was passed to a still-jittery Asia. There was an unusual whiff of intrigue as Fed Day dawned in New York on Wednesday . Going into the 2pm ET announcement, the market probabilities were at 30% for a 0.25% Fed Funds Rate hike and 70% for no change. As it turned out, the FOMC voted not to change the rate with three dissenting committee members voting for a hike. Chairman Warsh held a babbling, muddled and evasive word salad of a press conference that only amplified concerns that he is in Trump’s pocket. The three dissents indicate the direction of travel and a rate increase at the next meeting on September 16th is still very much on the table (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below). Warsh’s utter disaster of a performance (see .. AND I QUOTE .. below) poked the bear in the form of bond vigilantes who constantly fear a feeble Fed response to inflation and that was bad news for long term bond investors, variable rate mortgage holders or new home buyers (see AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE below). While short term interest rates eased, longer term interest rates exploded higher with the 30-year Treasury rate touching more twenty-year highs, breaking through 5.20%. Stocks tumbled, especially the tech-heavy NASDAQ-100 which entered official correction territory after suffering its longest losing streak since the dark days of October 2022. A further escalation and expansion of the Middle East conflict didn’t help. Meta, RobinHood and Qualcomm all disappointed with earnings after the close but Microsoft and Starbucks surprised to the upside. Wall Street was merciless in its punishment of Meta on Thursday , but rewarded Microsoft by adding half a trillion dollars to its value, a record for a one-day gain in an individual stock. Dip-buyers finally dived back in, scooping up beaten-down tech names in particular (except for Meta), partly triggered by a cooling PCE annual inflation reading of 3.7% and despite an underwhelming annualized Q2 GDP growth estimate of 1.5%. The indexes all closed substantially higher, enjoying their best day in over a year. Bonds, however, made no such recovery as interest rates stayed stubbornly elevated. Apple’s after-hours earnings were perfectly fine but traders focused on the supply and cost concerns over component parts and memory for its products and the stock price dumped, pushing it back to second place again in the Biggest Company In The World standings after just four days at the top. There were no such reservations about Amazon though, after it blasted through expectations with its report and the stock zoomed higher. The risk-on euphoria spread to Asia where the indexes bounced back spectacularly from their recent plunges, with South Korea jumping by a record 18%. The bargain-hunting-driven burst of momentum initially carried into New York on Friday and the indexes got off to a fast start helped by predictably decent Q2 earnings from Chevron and Exxon-Mobil. Stocks closed the session higher again, managing to close out a wildly volatile week in the green but still lower for the month of July. Some other things I’m thinking about .. * Despite its pre- IPO price of $135, no-one who get swept up in the hype got any “can’t miss” SpaceX stock for less than $150 on the first day of trading. Unless they dumped it quickly, they were down at least 30% last week in a little over thirty trading days. Anyone unlucky enough to have bought at the high on June 16th has seen the value of their investment cut in half already. And all this before August 6th’s unlock of 20% of the total number of shares at which time insiders can begin selling their stocks. Maybe people should have read Josh Brown’s Instagram post first. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me. ARTICLE OF THE WEEK .. “The financial environment is much more complex now, and it is much easier to make bad decisions” . Economist and top financial columnist Allison Schrager of Bloomberg asks; why are Americans so financially illiterate ? .. AND I QUOTE .. “Warsh suggested Fed policymakers should follow the bond market rather than lead it, the bond market’s response was to punch him in the face.” Christian Hoffmann, head of fixed income at Thornburg Investment Management, following Fed chairman Warsh’s credibility issues last week (see above). LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS: Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com * SPY , a US Large Cap ETF , tracks the S&P 500 index , made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 0.8% last week, is higher by 3.9% over the last three months and is up by 10.1% so far this year. * IWM , a US Small Cap ETF , tracks the Russell 2000 index , made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It rose 0.6% last week, is higher by 4.5% over the last three months and is up by 18.8% so far this year. * VXUS , an International Non-US ETF , tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index , made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It rose 1.4% last week, is higher by 2.4% over the last three months and is up by 12.8% so far this year. Data shown is total return (including dividends) INTEREST RATES: * FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago) * PRIME RATE ** 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago) * 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.83% (3.85% a week ago) * 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.28% (4.18% a week ago) * 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.45% (4.28% a week ago) * 10 YEAR TREASURY *** 4.75% (4.55% a week ago) * 20 YEAR TREASURY 5.28% (5.07% a week ago) * 30 YEAR TREASURY 5.27 % (5.06% a week ago) Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close. * Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates. ** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Moving in lockstep with the Fed Funds interest rate , this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates. AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE: * 6.66% One week ago: 6.58%, one month ago: 6.45%, one year ago: 6.72% Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS: Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on September 16th ? * 0.25% higher than now .. 72% probability (82% a week ago) * Unchanged from now .. 28% probability (18% a week ago) * 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago) With three more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026? * Two increases, 42% probability (a week ago: one increase, 43% probability) Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE: * 67% One week ago: 66%, one month ago: 62%, one year ago: 42% Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close. This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index . A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend. FEAR & GREED INDEX : “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett. Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close. The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand. Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment. Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal. WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes. The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors. Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place. Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein. Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post. Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here . If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

July 26, 20266 min

Raising The Temperature.

“Not a drop of oil will leave the Strait of Hormuz” , according to Iran on Sunday as the so-called “three-week skirmish” approached its five-month anniversary amid daily US airstrikes and zero signs of any resolution. Stock markets around the world are still considerably higher than they were on the day the conflict formally began back on February 28th, but the oil price spiking back through $90 and the average price at the pump in the US over $4.00 again risked making for a miserable start to the week for global stocks, adding to the persistent jitters about AI overspending (funded in many cases by debt). Asian and European indexes duly had a rough day on Monday but Wall Street was more upbeat with bargain-hunters gently nibbling early on following the previous week’s chip/semiconductor stock carnage, but they were soon beaten back by inflation doomsayers and the US indexes closed a touch lower. After hours, Trump threatened a 50% tariff on many Canadian goods under obscure legislation dating back to the 1930s , vaguely citing “discriminatory treatment” of US exports, setting up either a completely unnecessary bust-up with a major trading partner or else yet another pointless TACO episode. The smart money is on the latter. With a brief pause in the toxic Iran war rhetoric, chip stock dip-buying resumed on Tuesday morning and picked up steam as the day wore on and the indexes all closed nicely in the green. After taking a day off, Trump issued a barrage of more angry social media threats of violence against Iranians on Wednesday and stocks stumbled out of the gate on the back of relentlessly rocketing energy prices and soaring interest rates. But they later recovered on more of the AI tunnel vision which continues to feed the bulls, with more bottom-fishing ahead of the start of tech earnings to record another solidly positive session. The main event though was right after the close when Alphabet/Google announced respectable earnings but scary AI spending plans and Tesla badly missed profitability expectations despite a bump in EV sales. The reports spooked after-hours traders and both stocks sank. When Wall Street opened on Thursday , the bond market sent a clear message of inflation concern, selling off hard again as interest rates jumped across the board, including the impactful 10-year Treasury rising to its highest rate in over eighteen months and the 30-year up to a level not seen in almost twenty years (see INTEREST RATES below). With no help whatsoever from Alphabet/Google or Tesla, both of which got thoroughly brutalized as punishment for their disappointing reports the night before, stock markets completely broke down as oil prices roared back into triple-digits and the week’s index gains were more than wiped out in one horrible session which resulted in the Mag 7 stocks losing a combined $800 billion in value. After hours, Intel shattered expectations with a blowout Q2 earnings report but Trump continued raising the temperature , announcing a sweeping new set of tariffs on 60 countries representing 99.4% of US imports. Many of its victims are already formulating their retaliation. Financial markets seemed unsure how to react on Friday , eventually settling for not doing much. Interest rates paused their rocket ride and stocks drifted aimlessly throughout the session, closing unchanged but on edge ahead of geopolitical uncertainty over the weekend and a monster upcoming week with a kind of live Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday and a truckload of earnings reports including from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm, Exxon-Mobil, Chevron and many more. The downside risk for stocks feels greater now than it has been in some time with high valuations, intensifying war, a rebuild of Trump’s highly damaging tariff wall, spiraling interest rates and a worsening inflation outlook, but there is still a world where mega-cap earnings can possibly come to the rescue. Some other things I’m thinking about .. * Until somewhat recently, the market’s view of AI spending was “ the bigger, the better” as investors embraced the idea that the more the hyperscalers spent on AI, the more of a windfall they’d eventually receive. However, that’s changing, primarily due to two factors; i) the sheer amount of money being thrown at the limited supply of AI equipment has caused the prices of tech components such as semiconductors or memory to skyrocket and ii) these hyperscalers seem to be caught in an arms race, as spending increases by one elicit a “we’re behind” response from others who react by boosting their own expenditure. Investors don’t want to see spending being slashed (that would be bad for everyone), but nor do they want to see such an enormous acceleration either, because that can end up depressing free cash flow at these firms. “Restraint, please” seems to be the message from Wall Street. * Less than a month ago, oil prices seemed poised to fall into the $60’s. By last week they were back above $100, once again threatening to ignite even higher inflation around the world. The job of global central banks is getting harder and harder when it comes to interest rate-setting decisions and the next such test for the Federal Reserve is on deck for this coming Wednesday (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below). If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me. ARTICLE OF THE WEEK .. New York City has now slipped to fourth place behind San Francisco, Miami and LA (in that order) in the race for the unwanted crown of the most expensive city to live in America. .. AND I QUOTE .. “What the market is pricing is a scenario where everything goes right and there are no risks. That is not a bullish picture.” Sebastian Raedler, Head of European equity strategy, Bank of America LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS: Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com * SPY , a US Large Cap ETF , tracks the S&P 500 index , made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It fell 0.8% last week, is higher by 3.3% over the last three months and is up by 8.2% so far this year. * IWM , a US Small Cap ETF , tracks the Russell 2000 index , made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It fell 0.8% last week, is higher by 5.3% over the last three months and is up by 18.4% so far this year. * VXUS , an International Non-US ETF , tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index , made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It fell 0.1% last week, is higher by 1.0% over the last three months and is up by 10.5% so far this year. Data shown is total return (including dividends) INTEREST RATES: * FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago) * PRIME RATE ** 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago) * 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.96% (3.85% a week ago) * 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.33% (4.18% a week ago) * 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.43% (4.28% a week ago) * 10 YEAR TREASURY *** 4.69% (4.55% a week ago) * 20 YEAR TREASURY 5.18% (5.07% a week ago) * 30 YEAR TREASURY 5.16 % (5.06% a week ago) Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close. * Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates. ** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Moving in lockstep with the Fed Funds interest rate , this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates. AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE: * 6.58% One week ago: 6.55%, one month ago: 6.48%, one year ago: 6.74% Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS: Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on July 29th ? * 0.25% higher than now .. 38% probability (13% a week ago) * Unchanged from now .. 62% probability (87% a week ago) * 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago) With four more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026? * Two increases, 40% probability (a week ago: one increase, 43% probability) Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE: * 66% One week ago: 66%, one month ago: 61%, one year ago: 42% Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close. This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index . A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend. FEAR & GREED INDEX : “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett. Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close. The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand. Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment. Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal. WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes. The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors. Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place. Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein. Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post. Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here . If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

July 19, 20265 min

In Tatters.

The US/Iran ceasefire memorandum is obviously in tatters . Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a reinstatement of the blockade by Trump who also briefly proposed an idea to create his own toll system to pocket 20% from all shipping traffic (within 24 hours, he was forced to clumsily back-track on this bonkers plan). The US carried out more air strikes, prompting a resumption of Iranian attacks on multiple military targets throughout the region. Financial markets have not so far priced in any outcome other than the conflict being comfortably in the rear-view mirror very soon. If the certainty behind this conviction were to begin to crumble, there could be an urgent need to reprice risk assets lower and this significant escalation over the weekend drove up energy prices and interest rates and sent overseas stocks reeling on Monday , particularly in the highly volatile South Korean market. Wall Street took stock prices lower in a more orderly fashion over the course of the session, the decline led by Tech/AI names but without the whiff of panic that was sensed in parts of Asia. Sky-high expectations means that simply beating Q2 earnings estimates is not necessarily good enough any more and misses are being severely punished. As an example, Citibank and GE’s stock prices fell back despite very solid reports. On the other hand, IBM was slaughtered on Tuesday after a disappointing report, losing a quarter of its total value after enduring its biggest one-day percentage price dive since “Hey Jude” (which just enjoyed a revival among us recently-devastated English soccer fans) topped the charts in 1968. IBM’s customers are turning away from the 115-year old juggernaut to younger, more nimble AI companies. However, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo all smashed through estimates by enough to move higher, in some cases to new all-time record highs. CPI retail inflation for June dropped to 3.50% annualized, reflecting last month’s fall in oil prices. This eased some of the fears about a Fed Funds Rate hike on July 29th (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below) which drove interest rates back down across the board and stocks reacted positively, closing nicely higher. PPI wholesale inflation data released on Wednesday reinforced the CPI numbers by pulling back from recent highs. Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and Bank of New York joined the ballooning list of financial firms issuing spectacular earnings, helping to somewhat offset market concerns about the chaotically deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East, fueled by increasingly intense threats of violence from Trump. The indexes hugged the flatline all session and closed little changed. Americans still can’t stop spending as shown by the Retail Sales release on Thursday morning which was the cherry on top of a very strong week of data. However, the indexes drifted lower again over the course of the day on intensifying chip/AI stock weakness and a growing sense that an increasingly erratic Trump may be losing whatever control he felt he had left over the Iran war and that the market’s previous assumptions about a swift, clean end to the conflict may now need to be recalibrated. In a weird, rambling address to the nation on Thursday night, Trump made wild and unsubstantiated claims about electoral fraud including directly accusing China of hacking, data theft and interference just a few weeks before his scheduled meeting with Chinese premier Xi in Washington DC. He also found time to include a highly misleading plug for his largely unimpressive Trump Child Accounts . China remained in focus on Friday with the unveiling of Kimi K3 , a potentially serious competitor to the likes of Nvidia, Broadcom, OpenAI, Anthropic and the rest. Asian markets dumped and what had been a selloff in chip/AI names on Wall Street quickly turned into a rout as traders rushed to exit the exact same positions that had driven the major Q2 rally. This was enough to tip the chipmaker stock index into an official bear market as the NASDAQ got battered, not helped by a disappointing Netflix earnings report and subsequent share price plunge for the major index component. The S&P 500 got off a little more lightly, but still dropped to close near its lows of the day to finish up a losing week. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me. ARTICLE OF THE WEEK .. It’s time to completely rethink the financial value of home ownership . .. AND I QUOTE .. “Inflation has been too high, for too long and does not appear to be on track all the way back to 2% [the Fed’s official target]. The inflation risks are to the upside.” Lorie Logan, Dallas Federal Reserve President and FOMC voting member LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS: Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com * SPY , a US Large Cap ETF , tracks the S&P 500 index , made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It fell 1.3% last week, is higher by 4.9% over the last three months and is up 9.6% so far this year. * IWM , a US Small Cap ETF , tracks the Russell 2000 index , made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It fell 0.5% last week, is higher by 6.9% over the last three months and is up 19.9% so far this year. * VXUS , an International Non-US ETF , tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index , made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It fell 1.2% last week, is unchanged over the last three months and is up 11.1% so far this year. Data shown is total return (including dividends) INTEREST RATES: * FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago) * PRIME RATE ** 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago) * 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.85% (3.85% a week ago) * 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.18% (4.21% a week ago) * 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.28% (4.30% a week ago) * 10 YEAR TREASURY *** 4.55% (4.56% a week ago) * 20 YEAR TREASURY 5.07% (5.08% a week ago) * 30 YEAR TREASURY 5.06% (5.06% a week ago) Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close. * Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates. ** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates. AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE: * 6.55% One week ago: 6.49%, one month ago: 6.38%, one year ago: 6.75% Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS: Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on July 29th ? * 0.25% higher than now .. 13% probability (34% a week ago) * Unchanged from now .. 87% probability (66% a week ago) * 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago) With four more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026? * One increase, 43% probability (a week ago: one increase, 38% probability) Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE: * 66% One week ago: 66%, one month ago: 57%, one year ago: 42% Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close. This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index . A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend. FEAR & GREED INDEX : “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett. Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close. The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand. Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment. Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point. WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes. The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors. Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place. Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein. Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post. Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here . If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

July 12, 20266 min

Bull In A China Shop.

After successfully fixing the World Cup over the long weekend, Trump is finding Iran to be far less willing than FIFA to bend to his every whim and certainly not surrendering by any definition of the word, let alone the “unconditional” kind that the US president claims to require at a minimum. The sixty-day deadline countdown continued inexorably with no sign whatsoever of any progress towards a workable and sustainable resolution to the conflict. Wall Street was still keeping the faith on Monday , however, and its focus was mostly elsewhere. Astonishingly strong Q1 earnings and mostly solid Q2 economic data continue to resonate and stock indexes marched steadily back towards record high levels with traders starting to pile back into the tech trade. Wild volatility returned to South Korean markets on Tuesday as Samsung (with a 22% weighting in the local KOSPI index) failed to meet high expectations in an interim earnings report and trading circuit breakers were triggered again as the index fell over 8% at one point. This negatively impacted other Asian markets and then brought Monday’s tech rally in the US to an abrupt halt and all of the indexes closed the session in the red, not helped by more firefights in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed US bombing of Iran which sent oil prices and interest rates spiraling higher. SpaceX, already down 30% from its post- IPO high, joined the NASDAQ-100 index on Tuesday morning as well as the widely-followed Russell 1000 index (and is therefore now a component of the popular QQQ ETF and plenty of other index-tracking funds) and the stock price promptly collapsed by another 7% to below its IPO-day opening price, meaning that anyone who bought the stock and didn’t quickly sell it is now losing money. The stock market’s almost blind confidence in a swift resolution to the Iran war was shaken on Wednesday as Trump appeared to have a hissy fit while rampaging around the NATO summit in Portugal like a bull in a china shop , calling the Iranians “scum” and “liars” , characterizing peace negotiations as “a waste of time” and declaring the ceasefire to be “over”. He also began rambling about Greenland again, lashed out at any European he could think of (especially anyone from Spain) and nonsensically blamed Starmer’s recent fall from power on the UK prime minister’s reluctance to join in the apparently “very popular” deadly attack on Iran back in February. Stocks tumbled at the open as the continuing oil price surge put higher inflation and thereby possible interest rate hikes back in play, but then dip buyers seemed to feel that enough was enough for the time being at least, scooping up many of the battered tech names pulling the indexes back to close barely changed. There appears to be some appetite for raising the Fed Funds Rate among several voting members of the FOMC , according to the minutes released from its last meeting. Nevertheless, US indexes spent the day drifting steadily northwards all day on Thursday with ongoing bargain-hunting among tech and small cap names in particular and closed nicely higher. Q2 earnings season kicked off on Friday with Delta Airlines getting things started, but things really ramp up this week with most of the the big banks reporting on Tuesday morning. A record-breaking $27 billion blockbuster US IPO from South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix was well oversubscribed and the price jumped on day one. The indexes had a relatively quiet session, but continued on an upward glide-path to close the week pretty much where they opened it. Some other things I’m thinking about .. * According to Dimensional Fund Advisors research, i) the average age that a woman is widowed in the US is 59 years old, ii) 72% of women aged 85 or older are widowed, more than double the number of men of the same age at just 35%, iii) US women live 5.6 years longer than US men on average and incur greater healthcare costs over their lifetimes, iv) the average woman in the US earns about 18% less in salary than the average man during their working lives, v) on average, women receive about $5,000 less in annual Social Security retirement benefits than men, vi) two-thirds of women who use a financial/investment professional “feel misunderstood” by their advisor, which is important since only 36% of women are “confident” about their investment knowledge, compared to 59% of men (confidence and competence should not be confused; men and women consistently show equal levels of financial literacy). * The “quick buck” crowd is having a tough time of it lately with crypto’s complete meltdown, gold and silver’s collapse from recent highs and SpaceX’s crumble (see above). Things got worse as 2026’s most talked-about hipster ETF, Roundhill’s memory and digital storage stock fund ( DRAM ), just crashed 25% in only eight trading days. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me. ARTICLE OF THE WEEK .. The math behind why you need to invest in the broad stock market . .. AND I QUOTE .. “Markets weren’t initially taking the re-escalation in US-Iran tensions too seriously, but today, that seems to have changed.” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com on Wednesday. LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS: Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com * SPY , a US Large Cap ETF , tracks the S&P 500 index , made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 0.5% last week, is higher by 10.8% over the last three months and is up 10.4% so far this year. * IWM , a US Small Cap ETF , tracks the Russell 2000 index , made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It fell 0.7% last week, is higher by 13.3% over the last three months and is up 20.3% so far this year. * VXUS , an International Non-US ETF , tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index , made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It fell 0.3% last week, is higher by 5.0% over the last three months and is up 13.1% so far this year. Data shown is total return (including dividends) INTEREST RATES: * FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago) * PRIME RATE ** 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago) * 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.85% (3.82% a week ago) * 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.21% (4.14% a week ago) * 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.30% (4.23% a week ago) * 10 YEAR TREASURY *** 4.56% (4.49% a week ago) * 20 YEAR TREASURY 5.08% (4.99% a week ago) * 30 YEAR TREASURY 5.06% (4.98% a week ago) Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close. * Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates. ** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates. AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE: * 6.49% One week ago: 6.43%, one month ago: 6.50%, one year ago: 6.72% Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS: Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on July 29th ? * 0.25% higher than now .. 34% probability (18% a week ago) * Unchanged from now .. 66% probability (82% a week ago) * 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago) With four more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026? * One increase, 38% probability (a week ago: one increase, 42% probability) Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE: * 66% One week ago: 66%, one month ago: 56%, one year ago: 42% Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close. This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index . A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend. FEAR & GREED INDEX : “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett. Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close. The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand. Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment. Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point. WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes. The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors. Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place. Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein. Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post. Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here . If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

July 5, 20264 min

The K Is Getting Steeper.

The truce between the US and Iran came under severe stress over the weekend with both sides firing on one another and each blaming the other. But there was some geopolitical de-escalation on Monday that pushed stocks higher to start a holiday-shortened week, despite interest rates climbing steeply on the back of ongoing Fed rate hike fears. There was a flurry of Supreme Court decisions, including upholding the concept of birthright citizenship, confirming the US president as an adjudicated sex offender, opening the door to unconstrained electoral spending by political parties and - more importantly for Wall Street - restricting presidential ability to fire Federal Reserve officials on a whim, somewhat calming recent growing fears about central bank independence. Tech bargain-hunters dipped their toes back into the water and the major indexes snapped their five-day losing streak with some solid gains. The month, the quarter and the first half of 2026 came to a close on Tuesday with oil prices dipping below $70 and stocks continuing their rebound from the difficult previous week, led by more Big Tech/AI buying. It can be difficult to trust pricing around key calendar dates like this because of fund manager window dressing , but what is not in doubt is that we had just experienced the best quarter for the S&P 500 (up by 15%) since the big COVID bounce of 2020 and the NASDAQ ’s second-best quarter (up 21% despite a record volume one-day fall just last month) since its recovery from the dot-com crash of 2001. See my Q2 Market Review That said, financial markets are now entering what historically risks being the poorest-performing quarter of the year, even though markets do still rise about two-thirds of the time in Q3, including last year which saw a 7.5% jump in the S&P 500. July, Q3 and H2 kicked off on Wednesday with a snoozer. Attention was mostly focused on readying for the employment data the next day. The indexes all lost a bit of ground, even though a lot more S&P 500 stocks rose than fell over the course of the session. Another bout of chip stock selling put Asian stocks on the back foot on Thursday . The latest pre-market US Jobs Report was generally a disappointment with considerably lower job creation than expected last month and downward revisions to previous data, although the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2% as the size of the entire labor force contracted. Wall Street liked the idea of the Fed having a bit of breathing room when it comes to maybe having to raise the Fed Funds Rate and interest rates eased back from their early week spike as traders pared back on bets on any imminent hike (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below). Stocks initially moved higher but then fell back again on renewed tech weakness. Volume was muted ahead of the long holiday weekend and the indexes ended the day little changed, but mostly higher for the shortened week. Some other things I’m thinking about .. * By many measures we just entered the eighth longest bull market in stocks since the Second World War at just over three and a half years. Of the previous seven, the average total length is around seven years with the shortest being about five years. We may have a way to go .. * According to the Federal Reserve, the top 20% of earners now account for 58% of all personal spending in the US, the highest proportion on record. Consequently, the bottom 80% of earners account for just 42%, the lowest on record. To put this into perspective, in the 1990s these groups accounted for roughly equal proportions of total personal spending at around 50% each. The K is getting steeper . * Iran is becoming more and more vocal about its intent to monetize the Strait of Hormuz using a toll system whenever it properly reopens, something it only figured out how to do after being attacked by the US. This is raising the stakes and adding complication when it comes to negotiations. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me. ARTICLE OF THE WEEK .. “All sorts of crazy economic ideas are being taken seriously lately.” Bloomberg’s brilliant Allison Schrager bemoans the dubious idea of AI and government hooking up . .. AND I QUOTE .. “Those numbers are too high.” Tom Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and voting member of the Federal Reserve rate setting committee, referring to US inflation data. The Fed traditionally combats growing inflation by raising interest rates. LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS: Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com * SPY , a US Large Cap ETF , tracks the S&P 500 index , made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 1.7%% last week, is higher by 13.9% over the last three months and is up 9.8% so far this year. * IWM , a US Small Cap ETF , tracks the Russell 2000 index , made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It fell 0.1% last week, is higher by 18.7% over the last three months and is up 21.4% so far this year. * VXUS , an International Non-US ETF , tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index , made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It rose 0.1% last week, is higher by 10.0% over the last three months and is up 13.1% so far this year. Data shown is total return (including dividends) INTEREST RATES: * FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago) * PRIME RATE ** 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago) * 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.82 % (3.83% a week ago) * 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.14% (4.08% a week ago) * 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.23% (4.12% a week ago) * 10 YEAR TREASURY *** 4.49% (4.38% a week ago) * 20 YEAR TREASURY 4.99% (4.87% a week ago) * 30 YEAR TREASURY 4.98% (4.87% a week ago) Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close. * Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates. ** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates. AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE: * 6.43% One week ago: 6.49%, one month ago: 6.49%, one year ago: 6.67% Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS: Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on July 29th ? * 0.25% higher than now .. 18% probability (30% a week ago) * Unchanged from now .. 82% probability (70% a week ago) * 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago) With four more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026? * One increase, 42% probability (a week ago: one increase, 42% probability) Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE: * 66% One week ago: 64%, one month ago: 53%, one year ago: 42% Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close. This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index . A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend. FEAR & GREED INDEX : “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett. Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close. The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand. Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment. Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point. WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes. The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors. Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place. Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein. Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post. Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here . If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

June 28, 20265 min

Chip-Wreck.

Over the weekend, we were treated to the bizarre sight of the US and Iran delegations chummily sitting down together in Switzerland against a backdrop of the Strait of Hormuz being closed again after being sort of open for all of two days, Israel continuing its deadly assault on Lebanon and Trump again taking to social media to threaten more and more violence. By the time US markets opened on Monday , UK prime minister Starmer had resigned and Andy Burnham will become the country’s sixth leader in seven years next month after a weeks-long, slow-moving political coup. Initially at least, local financial markets appeared to be taking it in stride. The US indexes drifted lower in a vacuum of any credible US/Iran news beyond the endless tiresome spin from both sides, dragged down by profit-taking mainly in Big Tech/AI names including a rout of SpaceX, now down over 27% from its post-IPO high, having shed over $600 billion in value and reduced Musk from a trillionaire to a mere billionaire. Asian stocks crashed on Tuesday with trading halted by circuit-breakers in South Korea in the midst of a 10% plunge on a wave of selling of chip stocks, which spilled into Europe and the US on renewed fears that all this AI buildout is simply costing too much money amidst far-from-certain customer demand and could have resulted in over-valuation of many names including on Wall Street where the NASDAQ-100 tumbled by well over 3%. Things calmed down in Asia on Wednesday and there was an initial hard rebound when markets opened in New York as dip-buyers waded back in looking for bargains after Tuesday’s global chip-wreck , but they quickly withdrew as tech worries set in again and the indexes closed a touch lower for the session. With exquisite timing, chip/memory giant Micron, considered by many to be the new Nvidia, reported earnings after hours in a jittery environment and crushed all the analyst estimates. The stock soared in the after-market. This looked like it was just the boost that the stalled-out rally needed and US tech stocks came roaring out of the gate on Thursday, but once again doubts crept in later in the day after Apple and Microsoft were heavily punished following announcements of sweeping product price increases, OpenAI apparently considering a postponement of its IPO due to turbulent tech market conditions and reported firefights in the Strait of Hormuz. PCE inflation came in as expected at 4.1%, its highest level for over three years and more than double the Fed’s 2.0% target (which it hasn’t met for more than five years). Stocks closed slightly lower on the day. Following more tough sessions in Japan and South Korea, the US indexes went nowhere on Friday , essentially hugging the flatline all session but did complete a fifth straight day in the red for the first time this year, closing out a disappointing week but one that could definitely have been a lot worse. Some other things I’m thinking about .. * The best-performing stock of the so-called Magnificent Seven this year (Alphabet/Google) doesn’t even make the list of the 200 top-performing stocks of 2026. The AI investment cycle is maturing to a stage that is increasingly sensitive to more traditional equity market fundamentals and standards and the last few years’ outperformance of the Mag 7 could be coming to its inevitable end. * Gold and crypto both continue to disappoint their ever-dwindling armies of retail super-fans and prices crapped out again last week with Bitcoin in tatters, dipping below $59k and now worth less than half what it was just nine months ago . The “quick buck” crowd are turning their limited attention span to other outlets; prediction markets, sports betting and zero-day options contracts, for example, to feed their depravity and are pulling assets from their gold and crypto holdings to plough into these shiny new toys. * Oil prices have now round-tripped to where they were on the eve of the war. The same cannot be said of shorter term interest rates. On February 27th, the two-year Treasury rate was 3.38%. Last week it touched 4.24% before pulling back. That’s a major and sustained shift and reflective of a significant change in the outlook for where the Fed Funds Rate is heading (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below). If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me. ARTICLE OF THE WEEK .. How big should your emergency fund be? It’s not just a math question . .. AND I QUOTE .. “ The number-one job of the hedge-fund manager is not to make sure that you can retire with a smile on your face - it's for him to retire with a smile on his face.” Mark Cuban LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS: Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com * SPY , a US Large Cap ETF , tracks the S&P 500 index , made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It fell 2.1% last week, is higher by 15.3% over the last three months and is up 7.5% so far this year. * IWM , a US Small Cap ETF , tracks the Russell 2000 index , made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It rose 1.3% last week, is higher by 19.0% over the last three months and is up 22.3% so far this year. * VXUS , an International Non-US ETF , tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index , made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It fell 2.5% last week, is higher by 13.6% over the last three months and is up 12.6% so far this year. Data shown is total return (including dividends) INTEREST RATES: * FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago) * PRIME RATE ** 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago) * 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.83% (3.83% a week ago) * 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.08% (4.19% a week ago) * 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.12% (4.23% a week ago) * 10 YEAR TREASURY *** 4.38% (4.46% a week ago) * 20 YEAR TREASURY 4.87% (4.91% a week ago) * 30 YEAR TREASURY 4.87% (4.90% a week ago) Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close. * Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates. ** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates. AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE: * 6.49% One week ago: 6.47%, one month ago: 6.52%, one year ago: 6.77% Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS: Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on July 29th ? * 0.25% higher than now .. 30% probability (38% a week ago) * Unchanged from now .. 70% probability (62% a week ago) * 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago) With four more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026? * One increase, 42% probability (a week ago: two increases, 38% probability) Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE: * 64% One week ago: 58%, one month ago: 53%, one year ago: 42% Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close. This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index . A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend. FEAR & GREED INDEX : “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett. Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close. The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand. Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment. Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point. WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes. The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors. Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place. Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein. Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post. Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here . If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

June 21, 20265 min

Banana Skin Potential.

A 60-day extension of the ceasefire, a conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a suspension of the US blockade was announced on Sunday but it seems nothing has been resolved when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program, its frozen assets, war reparations or the lifting of sanctions, which would all be the subject of “further discussions” over the coming months. Despite lots of missing detail and contradictory interpretations from both sides each desperate to claim victory to their domestic audiences, financial markets breathed a sigh of relief on Monday , sending oil prices spinning to three-month lows and stocks exploding higher to start a holiday-shortened week of central bank interest rate decisions around the world, including from the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Traders decided that the many nagging doubts about the limitations and viability of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) could wait for another day and the US indexes had their best session since April, even though only about half the names in the S&P 500 actually moved higher with tech stocks doing most of the heavy lifting. Overnight, the Japanese central bank hiked local interest rates to 1.00%, astonishingly its highest level since the original Toy Story came out in 1995, but Wall Street took a breather on Tuesday giving back some of Monday’s blistering rally. Some skepticism started to creep in about the still-unclear finer details of the US/Iran deal that Trump described as “not final” , but attention quickly turned to the FOMC . Fed Day opened on Wednesday with a consumer read from Retail Sales data which blew through expectations, indicating that Americans are still unable to stop shopping. Under newly-minted Fed chairman Kevin Warsh, the committee held the Fed Funds Rate unchanged as expected but it seems from the quarterly Dot Plot that many members now expect to be raising it before year-end in response to the growing specter of inflation fueled by tariffs and war. Warsh said he didn’t care about financial market reaction to his comments, which is just as well since Wall Street read the tealeaves and decided to aggressively sell stocks and drive shorter term interest rates higher. All of Monday’s solid gains were erased. The US/Iran MOU , which became less and less impressive the more we learned about it (see below), was signed on Wednesday evening. Now the real work begins, getting the important stuff agreed upon in the next sixty days and return to a fully functioning and toll-free Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. There’s plenty of banana skin potential between here and there. Overnight, the Bank of England left UK interest rates unchanged. After two days of US index declines, dip-buyers stormed back in a big way on Thursday , which was a synthetic Friday with US markets closed the next day. Oil prices continued to retreat and interest rates eased back from Wednesday’s Fed-induced spike. Big Tech/AI led a strong recovery with the NASDAQ setting a new all-time daily volume record and the US indexes finished the trading week nicely in the green . Some other things I’m thinking about .. * Trump sought to break Iran’s regime in weeks. Months later and at a cost of billions of taxpayer dollars and thousands of lives, he seems to have now settled for conditionally reopening the Strait of Hormuz (which was fully open on February 27th). Iranian officials quickly and easily figured out that Trump has no desire to extend the conflict that he started but which is seriously damaging him domestically and they negotiated accordingly. * The US president has been forced into agreeing to little more than a high value pause which has broken almost all of his supposed red lines and signed in Versailles of all places! It’s not even close to the victory that he will falsely but inevitably claim. * From Wall Street’s perspective, what matters is that oil prices head back towards where they were before the war and that the inflationary pressures brought about by the conflict ease, because if inflation metrics continue to heat up, fears of interest rate hikes will rise and that’s a potential threat to the three-and-a-half year rally in stocks. * US oil reserves are at their lowest levels since 1983. This means that the stakes are high when it comes to the upcoming negotiations between the US and Iran because if things unravel (and there were already plenty of signs of strain and backtracking just on day one, not to mention Israel going straight back to bombing Lebanon within hours of the MOU being signed), there is very little breathing room before US consumers and businesses really start to feel the pinch. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me. ARTICLE OF THE WEEK .. Whenever Barry Ritholtz tells us what he’s thinking about , we should all listen and learn. I know I do. .. AND I QUOTE .. “Almost uniquely in the field of investing, doing nothing can be incredibly powerful, not lazy or negligent. Far too much value is placed on being active and the industry perpetuates that for its own gain.” Morgan Housel, author and partner at Collaborative Fund LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS: Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com * SPY , a US Large Cap ETF , tracks the S&P 500 index , made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 0.9% last week, is higher by 15.1% over the last three months and is up 9.8% so far this year. * IWM , a US Small Cap ETF , tracks the Russell 2000 index , made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It rose 0.9% last week, is higher by 19.0% over the last three months and is up 22.3% so far this year. * VXUS , an International Non-US ETF , tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index , made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It rose 1.3% last week, is higher by 16.1% over the last three months and is up 15.1% so far this year. Data shown is total return (including dividends) INTEREST RATES: * FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago) * PRIME RATE ** 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago) * 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.83% (3.78% a week ago) * 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.19% (4.09% a week ago) * 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.23% (4.21% a week ago) * 10 YEAR TREASURY *** 4.46% (4.48% a week ago) * 20 YEAR TREASURY 4.91% (4.98% a week ago) * 30 YEAR TREASURY 4.90% (4.97% a week ago) Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close. * Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates. ** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates. AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE: * 6.47% One week ago: 6.52%, one month ago: 6.48%, one year ago: 6.81% Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS: Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on July 29th ? * 0.25% higher than now .. 38% probability (8% a week ago) * Unchanged from now .. 62% probability (90% a week ago) * 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (2% a week ago) With four more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026? * Two increases, 38% probability (a week ago: one increase, 42% probability) Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE: * 58% One week ago: 61%, one month ago: 51%, one year ago: 42% Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close. This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index . A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend. FEAR & GREED INDEX : “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett. Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close. The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand. Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment. Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point. WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes. The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors. Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place. Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein. Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post. Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here . If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

June 14, 20264 min

Back In The Driving Seat.

Alive and well, the US/Iran war, which we were told would last about four weeks, entered its 100th day over the weekend despite weeks of multiple fake reports of its demise and a Trump declaration back on April 17th that the Strait of Hormuz had re-opened (still waiting for that one). The odds of a swift resolution lengthened further as Iran and Israel exchanged fire on Sunday for the first time since early April and oil prices predictably spiked in response. Traders in Asia picked up where their Wall Street brethren had left off the previous Friday by furiously offloading tech stocks on Monday , but there was a solid bounce in New York as dip buyers swarmed in to scoop up bargains from the tech wreckage ahead of Wednesday’s final set of inflation data before the next Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting on June 17th. After hours, OpenAI joined Anthropic and SpaceX in confirming an imminent IPO , while at the same time reports began to emerge of the US government possibly taking a taxpayer-funded stake in the company. Stocks continued higher on Tuesday morning as oil prices and interest rates eased. The dip-buying frenzy quickly faded however as concerns re-emerged about the lofty valuations of some of the Big Tech/AI names, particularly those that had spiked over the last couple of weeks and sparked another orgy of tech selling, further fueled by news that Iran had downed a US military helicopter and also a sense that institutional investors were unloading some of their tech holdings in order to free up funds to buy SpaceX stock on Friday. But the dip-buyers stepped back in after lunch to stop the bleeding and the indexes eventually closed a wildly volatile day only moderately lower. The US launched fresh attacks on Iran in response to the helicopter incident and Trump’s increasingly rambling rhetoric got more threatening, but there is clearly headline fatigue on Wall Street right now. The main business of the day on Wednesday was the May CPI data which showed inflation soaring to 4.2%, up a full half a percent from the previous month. The last time CPI was above 4% was in 2023 when the Federal Reserve was in a cycle of raising the Fed Funds Rate up to 5.325%. It’s currently 3.625%. The idea of any upcoming rate cuts now looks highly fanciful. The spicy inflation print sent stocks nosediving again with tech names once more leading the charge lower. This time the dip-buyers were conspicuous by their absence. After hours, Oracle disappointed with an underwhelming earnings report and traders dumped the stock. Thursday was the final ever day of a stock market without SpaceX in it (see ARTICLE OF THE WEEK below). The European Central Bank (ECB) raised local interest rates and the May PPI report showed that wholesale inflation in the US rose by the most since the dark days of 2022 and is now running hot at 6.5%. The chaotic TACO rollercoaster kicked back in with Trump promising hellfire in the morning but by lunchtime had abruptly called off air strikes and told us for the umpteenth time that a peace deal is basically done and will be signed in days. Oil prices and interest rates fell and the bulls jumped back in the driving seat as traders chose to interpret all this rather positively. The biggest IPO in history by a factor of three landed on Friday with SpaceX’s initial price of $135 valuing the firm at ~$1.8 trillion which instantly made it one of the top ten largest companies in the world. The price ended the session at a little over $160 and the indexes made more gains to close the week in the green on a cautiously growing hope that maybe, just maybe, this time some kind of war resolution might possibly be for real. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me. ARTICLE(S) OF THE WEEK .. Lots of chatter last week about some (but not all) of the indexes changing their policies to accommodate swift inclusion of SpaceX stock and likely Anthropic and OpenAI as well and thereby impose often unwanted ownership upon retail investors in their investment and retirement accounts. Two insightful articles from Nick Maggiulli and Callie Cox of Ritholtz Wealth Management cut through the noise on where we stand on this and what it could really mean for your investments. .. AND I QUOTE .. “At $135 a share, you have to believe everything will work fantastically, things that have never, ever happened before … you’re betting that the business exists already.” Cory Johnson, Epistrophy Capital Research chief market strategist on the SpaceX IPO LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS: Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com * SPY , a US Large Cap ETF , tracks the S&P 500 index , made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 0.7% last week, is higher by 12.1% over the last three months and is up 9.1% so far this year. * IWM , a US Small Cap ETF , tracks the Russell 2000 index , made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It rose 2.7% last week, is higher by 19.0% over the last three months and is up 19.2% so far this year. * VXUS , an International Non-US ETF , tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index , made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It rose 4.7% last week, is higher by 11.8% over the last three months and is up 13.7% so far this year. Data shown is total return (including dividends) INTEREST RATES: * FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago) * PRIME RATE ** 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago) * 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.78% (3.78% a week ago) * 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.09% (4.17% a week ago) * 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.21% (4.29% a week ago) * 10 YEAR TREASURY *** 4.48% (4.55% a week ago) * 20 YEAR TREASURY 4.98% (5.03% a week ago) * 30 YEAR TREASURY 4.97% (5.01% a week ago) Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close. * Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates. ** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates. AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE: * 6.52% One week ago: 6.48%, one month ago: 6.37%, one year ago: 6.84% Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS: Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th ? * 0.25% higher than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago) * Unchanged from now .. 99% probability (96% a week ago) * 0.25% lower than now .. 1% probability (4% a week ago) With five more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026? * One increase, 42% probability (a week ago: one increase, 50% probability) Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE: * 61% One week ago: 58%, one month ago: 50%, one year ago: 42% Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close. This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index . A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend. FEAR & GREED INDEX : “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett. Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close. The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand. Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment. Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point. WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes. The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors. Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place. Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein. Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post. Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here . If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com