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Every Sunday, Anglia Advisors founder Simon Brady CFP® CETF® recaps the week in financial markets. simonbrady.substack.com

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June 14, 20264 min

Back In The Driving Seat.

Alive and well, the US/Iran war, which we were told would last about four weeks, entered its 100th day over the weekend despite weeks of multiple fake reports of its demise and a Trump declaration back on April 17th that the Strait of Hormuz had re-opened (still waiting for that one). The odds of a swift resolution lengthened further as Iran and Israel exchanged fire on Sunday for the first time since early April and oil prices predictably spiked in response. Traders in Asia picked up where their Wall Street brethren had left off the previous Friday by furiously offloading tech stocks on Monday, but there was a solid bounce in New York as dip buyers swarmed in to scoop up bargains from the tech wreckage ahead of Wednesday’s final set of inflation data before the next Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting on June 17th. After hours, OpenAI joined Anthropic and SpaceX in confirming an imminent IPO, while at the same time reports began to emerge of the US government possibly taking a taxpayer-funded stake in the company. Stocks continued higher on Tuesday morning as oil prices and interest rates eased. The dip-buying frenzy quickly faded however as concerns re-emerged about the lofty valuations of some of the Big Tech/AI names, particularly those that had spiked over the last couple of weeks and sparked another orgy of tech selling, further fueled by news that Iran had downed a US military helicopter and also a sense that institutional investors were unloading some of their tech holdings in order to free up funds to buy SpaceX stock on Friday. But the dip-buyers stepped back in after lunch to stop the bleeding and the indexes eventually closed a wildly volatile day only moderately lower. The US launched fresh attacks on Iran in response to the helicopter incident and Trump’s increasingly rambling rhetoric got more threatening, but there is clearly headline fatigue on Wall Street right now. The main business of the day on Wednesday was the May CPI data which showed inflation soaring to 4.2%, up a full half a percent from the previous month. The last time CPI was above 4% was in 2023 when the Federal Reserve was in a cycle of raising the Fed Funds Rate up to 5.325%. It’s currently 3.625%. The idea of any upcoming rate cuts now looks highly fanciful. The spicy inflation print sent stocks nosediving again with tech names once more leading the charge lower. This time the dip-buyers were conspicuous by their absence. After hours, Oracle disappointed with an underwhelming earnings report and traders dumped the stock. Thursday was the final ever day of a stock market without SpaceX in it (see ARTICLE OF THE WEEK below). The European Central Bank (ECB) raised local interest rates and the May PPI report showed that wholesale inflation in the US rose by the most since the dark days of 2022 and is now running hot at 6.5%. The chaotic TACO rollercoaster kicked back in with Trump promising hellfire in the morning but by lunchtime had abruptly called off air strikes and told us for the umpteenth time that a peace deal is basically done and will be signed in days. Oil prices and interest rates fell and the bulls jumped back in the driving seat as traders chose to interpret all this rather positively. The biggest IPO in history by a factor of three landed on Friday with SpaceX’s initial price of $135 valuing the firm at ~$1.8 trillion which instantly made it one of the top ten largest companies in the world. The price ended the session at a little over $160 and the indexes made more gains to close the week in the green on a cautiously growing hope that maybe, just maybe, this time some kind of war resolution might possibly be for real. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.ARTICLE(S) OF THE WEEK ..Lots of chatter last week about some (but not all) of the indexes changing their policies to accommodate swift inclusion of SpaceX stock and likely Anthropic and OpenAI as well and thereby impose often unwanted ownership upon retail investors in their investment and retirement accounts. Two insightful articles from Nick Maggiulli and Callie Cox of Ritholtz Wealth Management cut through the noise on where we stand on this and what it could really mean for your investments. .. AND I QUOTE ..“At $135 a share, you have to believe everything will work fantastically, things that have never, ever happened before … you’re betting that the business exists already.”Cory Johnson, Epistrophy Capital Research chief market strategist on the SpaceX IPOLAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 0.7% last week, is higher by 12.1% over the last three months and is up 9.1% so far this year. * IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It rose 2.7% last week, is higher by 19.0% over the last three months and is up 19.2% so far this year.* VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It rose 4.7% last week, is higher by 11.8% over the last three months and is up 13.7% so far this year. Data shown is total return (including dividends)INTEREST RATES:* FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)* PRIME RATE ** 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)* 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.78% (3.78% a week ago)* 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.09% (4.17% a week ago)* 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.21% (4.29% a week ago)* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** 4.48% (4.55% a week ago)* 20 YEAR TREASURY 4.98% (5.03% a week ago)* 30 YEAR TREASURY 4.97% (5.01% a week ago)Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:* 6.52%One week ago: 6.48%, one month ago: 6.37%, one year ago: 6.84%Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?* 0.25% higher than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago)* Unchanged from now .. 99% probability (96% a week ago)* 0.25% lower than now .. 1% probability (4% a week ago)With five more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?* One increase, 42% probability (a week ago: one increase, 50% probability)Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:* 61%One week ago: 58%, one month ago: 50%, one year ago: 42%Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index. A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.FEAR & GREED INDEX:“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAMThis material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

June 7, 20266 min

Sit Back And Relax.

Following another weekend of zero trustworthy information on the war and peace front, financial markets were hoping to be able to focus their attention for a few days on the more tangible reality of earnings, economic data and evolving narratives surrounding interest rates and AI etc. as a banger of a month of May for stocks gave way to the final month of Q2 on Monday. Energy traders ignored Trump’s advice to just“sit back and relax” and pushed the oil price back up above $90 after Iran announced that it was breaking off ceasefire negotiations with the US until Israel halted its deadly attacks in Gaza and Lebanon. This created something of a speed-bump to the recent furious stock rally and the indexes closed barely changed but still fractionally higher enough for an eighth straight day in the green. On Tuesday, Marvell (on a deal with Nvidia) and Hewlett Packard (on impressive earnings) became the latest tech stocks to explode higher. The indexes only inched up a little but still enough for new all-time highs for a fifth session running. For the S&P 500 index, it was the 14th record high of the year and the 20th for the NASDAQ. Overnight into Wednesday, Trump declared negotiations with Iran to be “very boring” and implied that the Strait of Hormuz might not open before Labor Day which, along with more exchanges of fire in the region, kept the upward pressure on oil prices. Trump also decided that this would be a good time to revisit his dormant tariff policy, claiming to somehow suddenly care about international child labor laws as a pretext. Stocks at last succumbed to the negativity and the indexes’ nine-day winning streak finally came to an end as stocks pulled back from their record levels early on and this time never recovered. Wall Street’s worries spilled into Asian and European markets overnight with increasing concern about the consequences of Trump’s continued inability to bring to an end the war he started and his apparent loss of control and influence over Israel and Russia, third-party geopolitical actors who have both been intensifying their attacks on civilians. Index heavyweight Broadcom bucked the trend with a poor earnings report and the stock (which had risen 38% since early April) was brutally punished when New York opened on Thursday. Since Broadcom is the fifth highest constituent of the S&P 500 index and the fourth biggest in the NASDAQ, this put a lid on a broad market advance and the indexes closed little changed with signs of an investor rotation out of the Big Tech/AI stocks and into more old school names, as evidenced by the stupid dinosaur Dow Jones Industrial Average index reaching a new all-time record high while the NASDAQ tumbled. The May Jobs Report dropped on Friday morning and showed a massive upside surprise in new payrolls although the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%. Average wages continue to fail to keep up with inflation. Interest rates soared and stocks dumped in response as financial markets reacted by fully pricing in a 0.25% Fed Funds Rate increase before year-end (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below). Things quickly snowballed into a full-blown tech wreck with a rush to the exits on fears of over-valuation in certain names, resulting in the indexes’ first weekly losses since March. Interestingly, although the S&P 500 index plummeted by 2.7% on the day, less than half the stocks in the index moved lower at all, emphasizing the highly selective nature of the aggressive selling, which was heavily concentrated in large tech and AI stocks. Some other things I’m thinking about ..* There has been a subtle shift in Wall Street’s approach to the war. Fed up with having its chain yanked by endless gaslighting nonsense and confused false messaging about an imaginary peace deal that quite obviously doesn’t exist and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve on pace to hit its lowest level since the early 1980s later this month, traders are now focusing on “Tank Bottom”. This is actual inventory data which suggests that, absent a deal to properly open the Strait of Hormuz soon, severe shortages of energy supplies (especially diesel) will start to noticeably hit US consumers and businesses hard as early as August. * Crypto has utterly failed to participate in the recent risk-on environment, to put it mildly. Indeed, the price of Bitcoin plunged yet again last week to its lowest level since 2024. Over the last year as of Friday’s close, Bitcoin has fallen by 42% while the S&P 500 index has risen 26%, largely driven by AI. That’s a massive discrepancy for investors to handle and there has been some very significant institutional liquidation of crypto holdings and meaningful net outflows from crypto ETFs, demonstrating a clear shift in sentiment. There’s a certain irony in the fact that crypto is essentially being kept in its box by AI.* All of the gains in the gold price since the end of last year have now been erased as it went negative for 2026 last week. The many investors who hopped on the bandwagon in late 2025 after falling for the media hype and the pervasive but false myth that precious metals are a good inflation hedge are now most likely nursing losses on their gold position and also missed out on stock market gains as an additional opportunity cost. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..Misunderstanding the increasingly blurred line between investing and gambling can severely endanger your financial security. An important article from the wonderful Liz Ann Sonders. .. AND I QUOTE ..“Being force-fed shares of SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI [in their investment and retirement accounts] may be a bitter pill to swallow for the many, many Americans who are not at all excited about artificial intelligence. In April, a Gallup poll showed just 18% of people ages 14 to 29 feel hopeful about AI, down from 27% in 2025.”Bess Levin, New York MagazineLAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It fell 2.7% last week, is higher by 10.0% over the last three months and is up 8.6% so far this year. * IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It fell 3.6% last week, is higher by 11.3% over the last three months and is up 12.5% so far this year.* VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It fell 3.6% last week, is higher by 6.6% over the last three months and is up 10.2% so far this year. Data shown is total return (including dividends)INTEREST RATES:* FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)* PRIME RATE ** 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)* 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.78% (3.69% a week ago)* 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.17% (3.98% a week ago)* 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.29% (4.13% a week ago)* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** 4.55% (4.45% a week ago)* 20 YEAR TREASURY 5.03% (4.98% a week ago)* 30 YEAR TREASURY 5.01% (4.99% a week ago)Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:* 6.48%One week ago: 6.53%, one month ago: 6.37%, one year ago: 6.85%Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?* 0.25% higher than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago)* Unchanged from now .. 96% probability (99% a week ago)* 0.25% lower than now .. 4% probability (1% a week ago)With five more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?* One increase, 50% probability (a week ago: no change in rates, 54% probability)Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:* 58%One week ago: 55%, one month ago: 50%, one year ago: 42%Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index. A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.FEAR & GREED INDEX:“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAMThis material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

May 31, 20265 min

Half Full.

Trump and Rubio spent last Saturday teasing that a US/Iran agreement including a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz was “95% done” and was hours away from being finally announced. Iran quickly denied that anything was imminent and indeed there was nothing substantial to report by the time Asian and European markets opened on Monday, which was a holiday in the US and a number of other countries. Nevertheless, oil prices tumbled and overseas stocks moved higher on the prospect of an end to the conflict. There was still nothing to report by the time US traders returned to their posts on Tuesday morning. Indeed, Trump had actually ordered renewed air strikes overnight and Israel resumed its assault on civilian targets in both Gaza and Lebanon, all of which stalled gains in Asian and European stock markets. US stocks initially surged with Big Tech and small caps once again leading the charge and interest rates dived as Wall Street got its first chance to react to the possible progress, taking its cues from still-falling energy prices. Enthusiasm waned as the session wore on, however, with more non-stop war blather but precious little evidence of any deal. The indexes still managed to finish in the green, though. There were yet more claims and counter-claims of an accord as well as a fountain of confusing rhetoric on Wednesday (including a head-scratching threat from Trump to “blow up” US ally Oman), but jaded traders were tuning it out, viewing the US administration as a bit like the teacher in a Charlie Brown cartoon and finally appear to be stubbornly refusing to engage with all the nonsense in the absence of anything tangible or even vaguely accurate to digest. Stocks inched just a little higher but by enough (you guessed it) to set new all-time records for the major indexes. The US launched more air strikes overnight into Thursday sending energy prices spinning higher again. Premarket data drops included the latest GDP estimate showing a slightly disappointing 1.6% growth rate and PCE annualized inflation holding steady as expected at 3.8%. Solid earnings from Best Buy and Dollar Tree indicated that, while Americans are extremely pissed off right now according to record low consumer sentiment data, they just can’t stop spending money. Mostly due to simply following the path of least resistance, stocks drifted higher without too much conviction to complete a sixth straight day of gains and move deeper into record high territory. The party continued into the last trading day of the month on Friday, fueled in part by Dell whose stock price exploded higher by 33% at the open after blowout earnings and outlook. Despite some late profit-taking, the winning streak for the major indexes remained intact to get to seven straight days with three sessions in a row each resulting in new all-time record highs. The S&P 500 closed up 6.2% for the month of May and scored its ninth straight week of gains while the NASDAQ completed its best-performing two-month spell since the original Tobey Maguire Spiderman movie was in cinemas back in 2002. Some other things I’m thinking about ..* The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for three months now. Over that time the S&P 500 is up ~10% and the NASDAQ by ~20%. Stocks are being driven by a tug-of-war between geopolitics, oil prices, interest rates and a powerful earnings and AI narrative, but all with a highly asymmetric “glass is half full” bias, leading to a current market environment where good news is great news, no news is good news and even bad news is kind of okay. * The face-ripping run of Micron, with the stock price up over 850% in the last year and doubling in value in just 48 days to above a trillion dollar valuation, is helping to pull the tech sector back to a position of dominance. Of the eleven sectors in the S&P 500, Technology is the only one outperforming the index since the recovery from the lows of early April. This lack of breadth to the most recent rally can be looked at in two ways: * With concern - as the gains are highly concentrated and a nasty turn in the sector or even in just a few names would badly impact the indexes * With relish - at the prospect of the rest of the sectors catching up with the index’s spectacular tech leadership. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..Homeowners’ insurance premiums and deductibles are soaring all over the country. The insurance companies tell us that their policies provide financial peace of mind, but almost half the time they will refuse to pay out on your claim. .. AND I QUOTE ..“Stocks are priced for perfection in an imperfect world.”Emily Roland, JH Investment Management co-chief investment strategistLAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 0.7% last week, is higher by 10.6% over the last three months and is up 11.2% so far this year. * IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 0.6% last week, is higher by 11.3% over the last three months and is up 18.2% so far this year.* VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 0.5% last week, is higher by 2.8% over the last three months and is up 14.2% so far this year. Data shown is total return (including dividends)INTEREST RATES:* FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)* PRIME RATE ** 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)* 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.69% (3.68% a week ago)* 2 YEAR TREASURY 3.98% (4.13% a week ago)* 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.13% (4.27% a week ago)* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** 4.45% (4.56% a week ago)* 20 YEAR TREASURY 4.98% (5.06% a week ago)* 30 YEAR TREASURY 4.99% (5.07% a week ago)Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:* 6.53%One week ago: 6.51%, one month ago: 6.29%, one year ago: 6.89%Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?* 0.25% higher than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago)* Unchanged from now .. 99% probability (99% a week ago)* 0.25% lower than now .. 1% probability (1% a week ago)With five more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?* No change (a week ago: one raise)Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:* 55%One week ago: 57%, one month ago: 50%, one year ago: 42%Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index. A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.FEAR & GREED INDEX:“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAMThis material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

May 24, 20265 min

TACO or NACHO?

Another weekend, another complete lack of progress or even any useful information related to the Iran war as the paralysis continued with both sides wasting everybody’s time and effort by offering up proposals that are clearly non-starters since they know full well the other side won’t accept them. Wall Street loves itself a corny acronym and while bulls are tending to still hold on to the long-standing principle of TACO, many of the bears are adopting NACHO (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens). All we really got was Trump barking that “the clock is ticking”. No s**t, thought Wall Street traders who had been promised an end to all this uncertainty weeks ago. With inflation fire alarms starting to go off all over the world, markets made a cautious start to the week on Monday. After Japanese interest rates were driven to the highest levels in history overnight, stock prices dipped in New York, led lower by recently-buoyant Big Tech names, with energy prices and US interest rates continuing to head north on slowly evaporating confidence in an imminent workable US/Iran pact. Oil prices eased slightly late on as Trump implausibly announced that he had been talked out of resuming military strikes on Iran by Gulf allies pending some kind of unspecified deal, but Wall Street shrugged this off on Tuesday as just another tiresome and transparent negotiating ploy. The first of the week’s impactful earnings reports came out with Home Depot disappointing. The indexes retreated further, again tech-fueled, with stock traders nervously eyeing the one-way traffic in bond markets that was sending longer term interest rates to highs not seen since Soulja Boy topped the Billboard charts. Wall Street got another read on the American consumer with Target, TJ Maxx and Lowe’s earnings on Wednesday morning all beating estimates. There was nothing in the released minutes from the latest Fed meeting that indicated an imminent Fed Funds Rate cut, but they don’t seem to be overtly plotting a hike either, although the most commonly-expected next Fed move in 2026 has now flipped over from doing nothing to actually raising rates (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below). Stocks chose to take encouragement from the continued positive earnings environment and the indexes moved nicely higher, erasing the losses of the previous two days as oil prices drifted lower. Bonds had a much better session as interest rates pulled back from their recent highs. Nvidia’s earnings after the bell were perfectly good but lacked a wow factor and the stock did little in the after-market. On Thursday, Walmart’s pre-market earnings, considered a good barometer of the state of lower-and-middle income consumers and the K-shaped economy, showed significant profit margin compression and the stock sank. Combined with a muted reaction to Nvidia’s numbers and the continued endless foot-dragging and more unruly rhetoric from both sides of the Iran war spiking energy prices again, this sent the indexes slipping back into the red early on, but a late bout of dip-buying dragged them back up to close lightly in the green. Stocks completed their eighth consecutive week of gains on Friday, the longest such streak for three years, as longer term interest rates and energy prices continued to recede on the hopes of some kind of a US/Iran settlement ticked a little higher based on still-hazy but slightly more upbeat pronouncements from both sides. Some other things I’m thinking about ..* For AI-driven stock market growth to be sustainable the biggest tech companies will need to see a positive return on their colossal data center spending. If this fails to materialize because people and companies don’t use AI as much as expected or pay for its use, then the so-called hyper-scalers (Meta, Amazon, Oracle, Microsoft, Google etc.) will have to cut spending on them and that could badly damage the rest of the tech sector and thereby the tech-heavy US indexes. We won’t find out that out in the near term, but stock markets are currently acting like the answer can only be “yes, the spending will continue come what may,” and I’m not yet 100% convinced that’s definitely true beyond the next few quarters.* Trump’s job approval rating is cratering, consumer sentiment is at a horrendous multi-decade record low (even Republican voters are fuming) and inflation expectations are through the roof, just a few months before the midterms as Americans go into the Memorial Day long weekend with average gas prices above $4.50 a gallon, having spent an extra $20 billion at the pump in the last twelve weeks as a direct result of the Iran war. It is all this as much as anything else that might bring the conflict to some kind of a resolution relatively soon. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..“Evidence of a ferocious backlash against AI, especially among young people, is everywhere”. College grads just aren’t having it... AND I QUOTE ..“It’s not cost cutting; it’s replacing in some cases lower-value human capital with the financial capital and the investment capital we’re putting in.”Bill Winters, CEO of Standard Chartered Bank, was widely slammed for this clumsy quote last week, describing the bank’s employees as “lower-value human capital”. LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 1.0% last week, is higher by 4.2% over the last three months and is up 5.7% so far this year. * IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 2.9% last week, is higher by 7.4% over the last three months and is up 13.2% so far this year.* VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 1.4% last week, is higher by 4.1% over the last three months and is up 10.1% so far this year. INTEREST RATES:* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.68% (3.69% a week ago)* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.13% (4.09% a week ago)* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.27% (4.26% a week ago)* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬇︎ 4.56% (4.59% a week ago)* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 5.06% (5.14% a week ago)* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 5.07% (5.12% a week ago)Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:* ⬆︎ 6.51%One week ago: 6.36%, one month ago: 6.24%, one year ago: 6.86%Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?* 0.25% higher than now .. ⬌ 0% probability (0% a week ago)* Unchanged from now .. ⬌ 99% probability (99% a week ago)* 0.25% lower than now .. ⬌ 1% probability (1% a week ago)With five more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?* One raise (Changed from “No changes” a week ago)Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:* ⬆︎ 57%One week ago: 51%, one month ago: 50%, one year ago: 42%Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index. A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.FEAR & GREED INDEX:“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAMThis material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

May 17, 20266 min

Meaningless Drivel.

Trump decided over the weekend that he“didn’t like” Iran’s response to the US proposal to end the conflict but yet again there was little of substance regarding the war for Wall Street to focus on, with markets continuing to view the situation as slowly trending towards some kind of ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for ten weeks now with no prospect of reopening, a once-unthinkable shock to the world economy and yet the oil price came into the week still well below the high of $140 seen in 2022 (Russia/Ukraine) and global stocks at all-time highs. US stocks hovered around those highs at the open on Monday with Trump describing the current pause in Middle East hostilities as being “on life support” and continued rising energy prices keeping a lid on the recent melt-up, but the indexes still managed to inch forward a touch. Hence, more new all-time record levels. The latest CPI report on Tuesday morning was the first to fully include higher fuel costs brought about by the war and inevitably showed another big leap in retail inflation to 3.8% annualized, closing in on double the Fed’s 2% target (which it hasn’t met for five years now). Gas prices are up by 28% from a year ago and airfares by 21%. Notably, retail prices are now rising at a faster rate than wages. Interest rates shifted upwards on the vanishing prospect of any rate cuts at all in 2026 or early 2027. Indeed, an increase in the Fed Funds Rate this year is now priced as being more likely than a rate cut. Wall Street winced at the data and the indexes pulled back and interest rates jumped. Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday morning for a meeting with Chinese premier Xi after bizarrely telling journalists; “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situations”. Kevin Warsh was waived through Congress as the next Fed chairman and was immediately confronted with a big problem. CPI’s baby brother, PPI, was released pre-market and came in red hot, indicating a jaw-dropping jump from 4.3% to 6.0% in the annualized wholesale rate of inflation. The bond market was shocked and drove up medium and longer term interest rates. The 30-year Treasury rate blasted through 5.00% to its highest level since 2007, before the Great Financial Crisis. Stocks, however, took things in stride and tech stock traders in particular stepped in to buy Tuesday’s dip, pushing the indexes into the green and back to yet more record highs. By the time markets opened on Thursday, all that had come out of China was meaningless drivel about partnership and obscure references to Confucius and Abraham Lincoln. Of far more interest was the latest Retail Sales data which showed continued steady, if not profligate, spending by the US consumer. Despite the continued lack of anything interesting emanating from Beijing, stocks continued to move relentlessly higher, helped by a spectacular earnings report from Cisco. The major indexes reached their third set of all-time record highs of the week with the S&P 500 closing above 7500 for the first time ever and even the silly old dinosaur index that is inexplicably still followed by some people, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, broke through 50,000. The complete nothing-burger that was the Trump/Xi summit came to an end on Friday with muddled messaging from the US delegation and no apparent progress on Iran or tariffs. After a horror-show of a trading session in Europe with stocks and bonds plunging as local interest rates reached multi-decade highs and continued rising energy prices, US equity indexes cooled off as stock traders finally joined bond traders in fretting about inflation risk and took a lot of money off the table. Some other things I’m thinking about ..* I think it’s important to identify and recognize what could go wrong here for stock markets. To be clear, these are possible scenarios, not predictions .. * Fed hikes interest rates: For the first time in years, the market-driven probability of a Fed Fund Rate increase by year-end is now higher than that of a cut as inflation continues to be a major and growing problem, fueled by tariffs and the oil price shock. A forced rate-hiking campaign could cause a major economic slowdown. The last time the Fed had to raise rates to control inflation in 2022, stocks dumped by more than 20%.* Stagflation materializes: It is the expected duration rather than the intensity of high inflation that matters. The longer energy prices stay high, the more entrenched elevated inflation will become, fueling possible stagflation and unlike in COVID-times, there will be no stimulus checks this time to help offset it. * The AI boom goes bust: Earnings reports have indicated colossal AI spending from a narrow group of tech companies that is potentially driving wider economic and corporate growth. If that expenditure were to be forcibly slowed due to poor investment returns, then the platform upon which a three-and-a-half year rally has been built could begin to crumble and many other sectors might be adversely impacted. * None of these three risks are imminent and the market is fundamentally strong. But stocks can go down, sometimes sustainably and I don’t want clients to be blindsided if it happens. Absent some kind of exogenous shock, any major decline is likely to be the result of one or more of these factors. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..“Your ability to take risk throughout your financial life will be influenced by three primary factors—your age, your liabilities and your level of wealth. As each increases, you should naturally want to take less risk.”Maybe counterintuitive? Yes. Very sensible? Also yes. Important advice from Ritholtz’s Nick Maggiulli... AND I QUOTE ..“Risk management is less about how you respond to risk and more about recognizing how many things can go wrong before they actually do.”Morgan Housel, partner at The Collaborative Fund. LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com* SPYM, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 0.2% last week, is up 8.4% so far this year and ended the week 1.4% below its all-time record closing high (05/14/2026). * IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 2.3% last week, is up 12.8% so far this year and ended the week 3.5% below its all-time record closing high (05/06/2026).* VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price fell 2.7% last week, is up 10.2% so far this year and ended the week 3.1% below its all-time record closing high (05/06/2026). INTEREST RATES:* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬌ 3.69% (3.69% a week ago)* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.09% (3.90% a week ago)* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.26% (4.02% a week ago)* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬆︎ 4.59% (4.38% a week ago)* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 5.14% (4.93% a week ago)* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 5.12% (4.95% a week ago)Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:* ⬇︎ 6.36%One week ago: 6.37%, one month ago: 6.32%, one year ago: 6.81%Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?* 0.25% higher than now .. ⬌ 0% probability (0% a week ago)* Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 99% probability (93% a week ago)* 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎ 1% probability (7% a week ago)With five more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?* ⬌ No changes (unchanged from a week ago)Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:* ⬇︎ 51%One week ago: 53%, one month ago: 50%, one year ago: 42%Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index. A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.FEAR & GREED INDEX:“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAMThis material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

May 10, 20265 min

Vertical.

It was yet another weekend of nothing of substance war-wise for markets to chew on, apart from both sides ramping up the rhetoric and Trump posting some kind of characteristically detail-free vague promise called “Project Freedom” to somehow help guide tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets were unimpressed. Oil prices and interest rates spiked higher on Monday and stocks fell back from their record highs following exchanges of fire for the first time in weeks as we all got an unwelcome reminder that this war was not over. Cracks in the fragile ceasefire continued to appear on Tuesday but neither side seems to yet to have reached the pain level required to be willing to announce its demise. For the US, that pain level probably stands at around $160 oil, a 4.75% 10 year Treasury rate and even deeper midterm woes for Republicans. A buoyant risk-on stock market quickly recovered all of Monday’s losses, bolstered by Intel’s announcement of a deal with Apple. The indexes reached another new set of all-time highs. After the close, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) released sensational earnings, Trump shut down Project Freedom after less than two days and the average price per gallon at US pumps reached $4.56, its highest level since the summer of 2022. Reports on Wednesday morning that the US and Iran were closing in on a one-page, 14-point Memorandum of Understanding and Secretary of State Rubio straight up telling Congress that the war was over sent oil prices and interest rates tumbling. Stocks went vertical with Wall Street traders keen to consign the conflict to the history books and finally get back to their happy place where they could focus on corporate earnings, interest rate projections and economic data rather than constantly having to try and interpret grammatically-challenged social media posts. The soaring rally spilled into Asia on Thursday with Japanese stocks in particular ripping higher, but wavered when markets opened in New York. Perhaps with one eye on the following day’s crucial employment numbers and in response to oil prices and interest rates slowing their declines from the previous day, Wall Street took its foot off the gas and the indexes closed in the red. After the close, the US Court of International Trade ruled Trump’s imposition of 10% across-the-board Section 122 tariffs to be illegal, just weeks after the Supreme Court tossed out his IEEPA tariffs. Further exchange of fire between the US and Iran overnight was dismissed by Trump as a “love tap” . But it did cast some doubt on the prospects of a deal and sent oil prices briefly higher again on Friday ahead of the pre-market Jobs Report which showed a significantly greater-than-expected number of new payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%. This Goldilocks data confirmed a stable labor market and pushed back against fears of stagflation. Interest rates shifted lower and the stock indexes, boosted by another big day for Intel and several other semiconductor names, jumped again to wipe out Thursday’s losses and complete a sixth straight week of gains. The S&P 500 index notched its 15th new record high of the year (after almost 40 of them in 2025) and the NASDAQ scored its 11th. Some other things I’m thinking about ..* Market valuations are clearly stretched in the short term and there are still risks to monitor. But there are genuinely legitimate reasons for the new highs. So, while this market remains vulnerable to temporary downside air pockets on any US/ Iran disappointment, there are fundamentally solid financial positives to be found in the best earnings in over twenty years and a resilient US consumer that are supporting stock prices. While these factors remain in place, the risk of a major fall in the indexes is probably limited. But if they deteriorate, the drop from these levels has the capability to be dramatic. * Prediction betting markets at Polymarket, PredictIt and Kalshi are being pitched on social media as a lucrative side hustle for young Americans squeezed by rent and student debt. However, the reality is that almost all of them are losing money, with over 100,000 accounts on Polymarket down by at least $1,000. Trade records show that the bulk of profits were raked in by a tiny group of what appear to be automated bots while everyone else on the platform, in aggregate, lost $131 million. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..Various AI platforms were asked to create and manage a stock portfolio. It didn’t go well... AND I QUOTE ..“They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month.”Steve Cahillane, CEO of Kraft Heinz, referring to low-income US consumers facing tariffs, rising gas prices and stubborn inflationLAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com* SPYM, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 2.4% last week, is up 8.2% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (05/08/2026).* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 1.8% last week, is up 15.4% so far this year and ended the week 1.2% below its all-time record closing high (05/06/2026).* VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 3.0% last week, is up 13.2% so far this year and ended the week 0.4% below its all-time record closing high (05/06/2026). INTEREST RATES:* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.69% (3.68% a week ago)* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.90% (3.88% a week ago)* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬌ 4.02% (4.02% a week ago)* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬇︎ 4.38% (4.39% a week ago)* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.93% (4.96% a week ago)* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.95% (4.97% a week ago)Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:* ⬆︎ 6.37%One week ago: 6.30%, one month ago: 6.39%, one year ago: 6.76%Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?* 0.25% higher than now .. ⬌ 0% probability (0% a week ago)* Unchanged from now .. ⬌ 93% probability (93% a week ago)* 0.25% lower than now .. ⬌ 7% probability (7% a week ago)With five more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?* ⬌ Zero (unchanged from a week ago)Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:* ⬇︎ 53%One week ago: 57%, one month ago: 52%, one year ago: 42%Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index. A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.FEAR & GREED INDEX:“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAMThis material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

May 3, 20266 min

Shooting Back.

A potentially blockbuster week laced with pivotal earnings reports from almost $30 trillion-worth of S&P 500 names including five of the Magnificent Seven, key economic data and central bank interest rate decisions at home and abroad began following a weekend of no discernible progress on the Iran War. With limited credible conflict newsflow, Wall Street eased gently into the first half of the week on Monday, conserving its energy perhaps for a possibly more volatile second half. After solid sessions in Asia and Europe, US stocks essentially flatlined for the session but squeaked out just enough to notch more new all-time record highs for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes. The Bank of Japan left local interest rates unchanged on Tuesday. Energy prices continued to climb with Strait of Hormuz traffic remaining at a standstill and the United Arab Emirates’ shock withdrawal from Saudi-dominated OPEC, raising the average price of a gallon of gas at US pumps to $4.30 and over $6.00 in California. Trump posting a picture of himself with a machine gun and the caption: “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!” didn’t help. US stocks faltered, pulling back from their record levels with the NASDAQ reversing hardest on a Wall Street Journal report of trouble at OpenAI which sent tremors through some of the firm’s many tech partners and acted as a sharp reminder to investors to maintain portfolios that are balanced across sectors. Big Wednesday arrived with a Fed Funds Rate-setting announcement on tap followed by Jerome Powell’s final press conference as chairman and a tsunami of monster earnings after the closing bell. The Fed obviously did nothing with interest rates but a split is clearly emerging on the committee between those looking to maintain a bias towards only focusing on cutting rates in the near future and other members looking for more symmetrical and flexible language that at least leaves the door open for possible interest rate hikes in response to the increasing inflation pressure brought about by tariffs and war. In a lively press conference, Powell confirmed that he would stay on as a Fed governor once his chairmanship expires later this month, infuriating Trump. The indexes ended the session a little lower. Broadly speaking, the earnings reports were graded by Wall Street as follows: * Alphabet/Google: Excellent job all round. A gold star for the teacher’s pet.* Microsoft: Could do better on AI service offerings. We aren’t angry, just a bit disappointed.* Meta: Overspending yet again on unproven, kinda strange stuff. You have to rein it in and we likely won’t be happy until you do.* Amazon: Revenues growing nicely, good work. But we do need to keep one eye on that spending of yours. Long term US interest rates joined oil prices in touching wartime highs (5.00% on the 20-year and $126 respectively) on the last day of the month on Thursday before pulling back a little, continuing their non-confirmation of recent stock market exuberance (see below). Central banks in Europe and the UK held local interest rates unchanged. Q1 US GDP estimates came in stronger than expected, sending the indexes shooting back to new record highs again despite the mixed tech earnings and the PCE index showing inflation continuing to run hot, soaring from 2.8% to 3.5% annualized, the biggest month-on-month increase for years. The S&P 500 scored a 10% jump for the month of April, its best monthly performance since 2020. The Small Cap index and the NASDAQ did even better; up 12% and 16% respectively. Apple reported after the close, beating expectations on most metrics but didn’t blow the doors off and the stock price shifted moderately higher on Friday as stocks began May as they had ended April by marching deeper into record territory with the S&P 500 index now on a five-week winning streak. Some other things I’m thinking about ..* I talked in last week’s report about the divergence between stock market performance and consumer sentiment. Another notable divergence is the one between stock market performance and that of other financial markets. Put simply, compared to the day the ceasefire was declared on April 7th, energy prices are now much higher, as is the 10-year Treasury yield. The S&P 500 index, meanwhile, has surged 9% over the same time frame. * To be clear, this lack of confirmation by oil and interest rate markets doesn’t mean that the rally in stocks is illegitimate. The strong earnings and solid economic data upon which it is based are real. Stock markets are assuming that the war has passed peak intensity and we are at least on a road to some kind of resolution. But neither oil nor interest rates are signaling that and this non-confirmation can be spun one of two ways. * Positively, it could mean that good earnings and economic data are so strong that they are swamping geopolitical concerns, providing an effective offset to event risk. Negatively, it could mean that the stock rally has simply been fueled by “fast money chasing” that has sent mega-cap tech stocks spinning higher on little more than general hope of a resolution and that there is a non-trivial risk that this could all reverse quickly and nastily. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..“Just three months stand between the average American household and bankruptcy.” The death of the American Dream is now official... AND I QUOTE ..“The stock market isn’t always right, but it’s right far more often than any of us trying to predict what will happen next.”Ben Carlson, Ritholtz Wealth ManagementLAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com* SPYM, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 1.0% last week, is up 5.7% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (05/01/2026).* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 1.0% last week, is up 13.5% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (05/01/2026).* VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 0.6% last week, is up 10.0% so far this year and ended the week 1.8% below its all-time record closing high (04/17/2026). INTEREST RATES:* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.68% (3.69% a week ago)* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.88% (3.78% a week ago)* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.02% (3.92% a week ago)* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬆︎ 4.39% (4.31% a week ago)* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.96% (4.88% a week ago)* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.97% (4.91% a week ago)Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:* ⬆︎ 6.30%One week ago: 6.23%, one month ago: 6.43%, one year ago: 6.76%Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?* 0.25% higher than now .. ⬇︎ 0% probability (1% a week ago)* Unchanged from now .. ⬇︎ 93% probability (94% a week ago)* 0.25% lower than now .. ⬆︎ 7% probability (5% a week ago)With five more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?* ⬌ Zero (unchanged from a week ago)Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:* ⬆︎ 57%One week ago: 55%, one month ago: 45%, one year ago: 37%Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index. A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.FEAR & GREED INDEX:“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAMThis material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

April 26, 20267 min

Limbo.

The cozy feeling of optimism that had carried stock markets to new all-time highs the previous week began to unravel over the weekend. Within hours of Trump boasting that "Iran has agreed to never again close the Strait of Hormuz”, Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz, in response to the US refusal to lift its blockade.The oil price jumped but stocks remained steady in Asia and Europe on Monday. The previously-buoyant mood on Wall Street soured as Trump assured us all that he was not going to extend the ceasefire. Iran cast doubt on its attendance at proposed negotiations in Pakistan. Markets flinched a little and the rally stalled with the indexes all slipping a touch lower. Retail sales data was better than expected on Tuesday morning and stocks rose cautiously when markets opened on ongoing low trading volume before falling back as lingering hopes of imminent US/Iran negotiations evaporated and drove oil prices back into triple figures. The indexes all closed in the red again for their first back-to-back down-days of the month.Just moments after the closing bell, Trump completely reversed course yet again, posting that he was indefinitely extending his ceasefire deadline “until discussions are concluded” while maintaining the naval blockade. Stocks recovered solidly on Wednesday with tech taking the lead but a confused sense of limbo persisted in a vacuum of meaningful war news beyond Trump barking threats on social media, even as more mostly positive earnings reports continued to come out. The indexes defiantly held onto their gains throughout the session and both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes reclaimed new all-time record highs. Earnings from Tesla, IBM and Amex underwhelmed and brutal levels of mass layoffs and voluntary buyouts were announced by both Microsoft and Meta on Thursday. Stocks stagnated, albeit still hovering around record highs and then sank moderately with zero signs of any resolution of the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides seem equally desperate to declare victory, but each are terrified of appearing to their domestic audiences to be making any kind of compromise. Energy prices rose for a fifth straight day. A sensational earnings report from Intel, which screamed up by almost 30% at the open to break its record high from 2000 before cooling off a touch, pushed tech stocks sharply higher again on Friday morning. The indexes were then boosted further by the US announcement (notably unconfirmed by Iran) of a possible sequel to the failed high level face-to-face negotiations in Pakistan at the weekend to complete a fourth straight week of gains following four weeks of losses and, of course, at new all-time record highs.I am losing count of the number of times I have been asked recently a version of the question; “How can we possibly be at new all-time highs, given what is going on?” I see a number of reasons:* Financial markets are always forward-looking and anticipatory. A common investor mistake is to conflate events happening right now directly with the real-time daily direction of stock and bond prices. We are probably past peak uncertainty in the war. While the timeline is unclear to say the least, some kind of eventual diplomatic solution is still the most likely outcome.* The biggest market fear has always been that the conflict would send the price of oil spinning above $150 and towards $200 a barrel (at which point we will probably get massive demand destruction that will inevitably cap the price), not about whether its $75, $85 or $95. That $200 scenario remains unlikely, and as long as it stays that way, traders will give the diplomatic process the benefit of the doubt. * The Q1 earnings season is proving to be extremely robust. 80% of companies reporting so far have beaten estimates, some by a lot. At the end of the day, earnings are the prime driver of stock prices.* A strong dip-buying mindset remains alive and well and becomes self-fulfilling as investor reluctance to stay bearish for too long becomes reinforced time and time again by swift bounce-backs in price following any substantial declines.* AI is back, baby! Tech and AI-related names, which are for the most part less impacted by the conflict, are soaring again. Concerns over AI capital expenditure that were rampant earlier in the year have eased and many of these names comprise massive chunks of the weightings of the major indexes.Some other things I’m thinking about ..* This coming week is a highly consequential one. Beyond continued war developments, there’s a Big Wednesday that includes earnings from Alphabet/Google, Microsoft and Meta and a Fed Funds Rate decision (to likely do nothing - see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below). Amazon and Apple also report during the week. * Fed chairman nominee Kevin Warsh faced a grilling at his Senate confirmation hearing last week, including the accusation that he was simply Trump’s“glove puppet”. Despite his pledge to maintain central bank independence, the troubling signs were there as he declined to say who won the 2020 election and was unable to come up with a single Trump economic policy that he disagreed with. He also refused to come to the defense of Fed colleagues Lisa Cook and chairman Jerome Powell who were at the time both facing vindictive and obviously spurious legal proceedings at the behest of the president (the case against Powell was actually dropped later in the week), choosing instead to fire barbs at the current Fed chairman over recent policy that sounded remarkably like a Trump social media post. Warsh is all but certain to be confirmed by the Senate. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..“Stocks don’t always obey the fundamentals of the backdrop. Because they are owned by people, traded by algorithms created by people and perceptions change as quickly as human emotions.” Ritholtz’s Josh Brown chimes in on the “AI is a bubble” theory... AND I QUOTE ..“They don’t care about gas prices.”American Express CEO Stephen Squeri, on the company’s customers.LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com* SPYM, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 0.5% last week, is up 4.8% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (04/24/2026).* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 0.3% last week, is up 12.4% so far this year and ended the week 1.1% below its all-time record closing high (04/20/2026).* VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price fell 1.5% last week, is up 9.4% so far this year and ended the week 2.4% below its all-time record closing high (04/17/2026). INTEREST RATES:* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.69% (3.70% a week ago)* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.78% (3.71% a week ago)* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.92% (3.84% a week ago)* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬆︎ 4.31% (4.26% a week ago)* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.88% (4.89% a week ago)* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬌ 4.91% (4.91% a week ago)Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:* ⬇︎ 6.23%One week ago: 6.30%, one month ago: 6.30%, one year ago: 6.81%Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on April 29th?* 0.25% higher than now .. ⬌ 1% probability (1% a week ago)* Unchanged from now .. ⬌ 99% probability (99% a week ago)* 0.25% lower than now .. ⬌ 0% probability (0% a week ago)With six more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?* ⬌ Zero (unchanged from a week ago)Data is derived from futures market pricing based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. Courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool as of Friday’s market close. PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:* ⬇︎ 55%One week ago: 60%, one month ago: 42%, one year ago: 31%Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index. A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.FEAR & GREED INDEX:“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAMThis material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

April 19, 20265 min

Happy Clappy.

To the surprise of almost no-one, the fleeting US/Iran talks in Pakistan over the weekend were a dismal failure. Sometime in between attending UFC fights, unsuccessfully interfering in Hungary’s election, posting an AI image of himself as a messiah and picking fights with the pope, Trump still found time to announce a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in a move designed to cripple Iran financially. The main effect of such a move, of course, is to further deepen the world’s chronic energy supply shock (contemptuously dismissed last week by Treasury Secretary Bessent, net worth around $600 million, as "a small bit of economic pain") that is now resulting in soaring gas prices at the pump for Americans as well as thousands of flight cancelations, fuel rationing, commuting bans and power cuts in other parts of the world. Entirely predictably, the oil price exploded back into triple digits and both stocks and bonds fell in Asia and Europe on Monday. US stocks also initially pulled back but in a relatively orderly fashion and on low trading volume. Trump then claimed that Iran had reached back out that morning to “make a deal” . Oil prices swiftly retreated below $100 and the indexes pushed back into the green, with the S&P 500 index wiping out its losses for 2026 and even closing above where it finished on February 27th, the day before the bombing began, when a barrel of oil cost a mere $67. Q1 earnings season got properly under way on Tuesday morning with decent reports from some of the big banks. We also got another inflation indicator with PPI data proving to be sticky but stable. Stocks continued to march steadily higher throughout the session as energy prices continued to tumble to their lowest levels in three weeks, more on a lack of bad news rather than the presence of anything concrete or credible.An extension of the ceasefire was strongly rumored on Wednesday morning and Trump called the conflict “very close to over”, although Iran pushed back heavily on that claim. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reported very solid earnings. The indexes drifted gently higher all day and interest rates eased, but it was enough to propel both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ to new all-time record highs with the former closing above 7000 for the first time ever. This is absolutely astounding six weeks into a deadly oil-impacting war, despite Trump’s bizarre characterization of it last week as just “a minor skirmish”. Wall Street’s happy clappy mood was initially bolstered on Thursday by more pre-market expectation-busting earnings reports from the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor, Bank of New York and Pepsi. Gains were later pared, however, on reliable independent reports of a likely much longer timeline for any US/Iran agreement than the Trump administration is claiming which sent oil prices higher, but the indexes still managed to push deeper into record territory.Netflix reported earnings after the close, providing the season’s first major disappointment relative to expectations but Wall Street’s voracious risk appetite continued on Friday, especially after oil prices plunged following Iran’s initial announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would now be fully open to all traffic (subsequently qualified to exclude ships and cargoes linked to “hostile” countries) for as long as a ceasefire was in place. The indexes extended their upward charge. The S&P 500 completed its third consecutive week of 3%+ gains on a three day record-breaking streak and the NASDAQ also closed at record highs again after scoring its thirteenth straight session in the green, something it hasn’t done since 2013. Some other things I’m thinking about ..* Wall Street is done with the Iran war and ready to move on (see .. AND I QUOTE .. below). We’ve seen this movie many times before where geopolitical crises turn out in retrospect to have been great buying opportunities. The playbook of not freaking out and fading any geopolitical disruption which has essentially worked since the Second World War seems to have played out yet again. US and global indexes fully round-tripped their conflict-related losses and broke to new all-time highs again just a month and a half after hostilities began, marking the third speedy April V-shaped recovery in six years after 2020 and 2025. * Trump went back to taking potshots at Fed chairman Jerome Powell last week, vowing to fire him if he does not give up his governorship position next month, something he is not required to do until 2028. However, as recently affirmed by the Supreme Court, the president has zero legal authority to do this and so Wall Street just rolled its eyes and shrugged it off as a non-story. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..Coast FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) has always been the most sensible diluted version of the somewhat dubious FIRE strategy of aggressive saving, investing and massive cost-cutting to build liquid assets to roughly 25-30X annual expenses and then switching to full spending mode well before traditional retirement age. AI could be causing a rethink. .. AND I QUOTE .."So as far as the stock market is concerned, the war is over until further notice”. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni ResearchLAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of stockanalysis.comS&P 500 sector data courtesy of State Street Investment Management * SPYM, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 4.5% in the last five days, is up 4.2% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (04/17/2026).* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 5.5% in the last five days, is up 12.0% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (04/17/2026).* VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 3.0% in the last five days, is up 11.0% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (04/17/2026). INTEREST RATES:* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.70% (3.69% a week ago)* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.71% (3.81% a week ago)* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.84% (3.94% a week ago)* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬇︎ 4.26% (4.31% a week ago)* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.85% (4.89% a week ago)* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.88% (4.91% a week ago)Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:* ⬇︎ 6.30%One week ago: 6.37%, one month ago: 6.15%, one year ago: 6.83%Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on April 29th?* 0.25% higher than now .. ⬇︎ 1% probability (2% a week ago)* Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 99% probability (98% a week ago)* 0.25% lower than now .. ⬌ 0% probability (0% a week ago)With six more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?* ⬌ Zero (unchanged from a week ago)Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool as of Friday’s market close. All data based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:* ⬆︎ 60%One week ago: 53%, one month ago: 50%, one year ago: 30%Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close.This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index. A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.FEAR & GREED INDEX:“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAMThis material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

April 12, 20266 min

Scrambled.

A clearly exasperated Trump put out a series of unhinged expletive-ridden social media posts over the weekend threatening the destruction of civilian infrastructure in Iran starting on Tuesday evening which pushed oil prices deeper into triple digits, but there was very little in terms of credible clarity for traders to chew on at the weekend. A week including some key economic data and the start of Q1 2026 earnings season kicked off quietly on a low-volume Monday session with a temporary pause in the headline roulette and stocks tentatively built on the previous week’s gains in a state of confused optimism ahead of potentially violent two-way volatility from either a brutal US/Israel onslaught or another TACO Tuesday. In fact, Israel seemingly couldn’t wait to start hitting civilian targets in Iran and jumped the gun on Tuesday morning which pushed up energy prices. Trump, who appears to be treating this whole situation like some tawdry New York real estate transaction characterized by shameless brinkmanship and nasty threats, posted that “a whole civilization will die tonight”. A sense of unease settled on Wall Street. Stock prices sank and interest rates drifted higher as the deadline grew closer. However, there was a late-session recovery on the back of rumors of some kind of diplomatic breakthrough brokered by Pakistan and the indexes closed unchanged on the day. After the close, Trump capitulated, announcing a two-week suspension of all strikes on Iran, improbably claiming that the US had “already met and exceeded all military objectives”. In return, Iran agreed to conditionally re-open the Strait of Hormuz for the two-week period (but still charging crypto tolls to any traffic) and bilateral talks were set for the weekend in Pakistan. As both sides desperately tried to spin the narrative as a win including undisguised victory laps with “mission accomplished” rhetoric from both Trump and Hegseth, traders scrambled frantically to re-price risk assets in the wake of the announcement. Oil prices crashed by the most since early COVID, interest rates tumbled and stock markets around the world absolutely skyrocketed in Asia and Europe for their biggest one-day gains in years. When Wall Street opened on Wednesday, its comeback was a little less spectacular, but it was still a very strong day for the stock indexes. While it was unclear how long it would last, traders treated themselves to at least a day of euphoric relief. Some Q1 earnings began to trickle in and were mostly positive ahead of the banks kicking off the season in earnest this week. After Wednesday’s massive dopamine hit, the jubilation subsided across global markets on Thursday with accusations already flying that terms were being violated and the Strait of Hormuz still basically closed.Oil prices and interest rates bounced back higher overnight and international stocks fell. The latest PCE numbers and the most recent Q1 GDP estimate were published ahead of the US opening bell, showing sticky inflation, consumer spending stalling and a declining rate of economic growth. However, reports that Israel and Lebanon were planning direct ceasefire talks helped to reverse early losses on Wall Street and the indexes closed with light gains. The late rebound followed through into Asian and European markets on Friday. Wall Street got to see the latest CPI data which saw inflation shoot up to an annualized rate of 3.3%. The month-to-month jump was the biggest since 2022, but over three-quarters of it was down to war-related energy price increases. Wall Street chose to look through the hopefully-transitory oil price effect and stocks made further incremental gains when markets opened as traders marginally added to bets that the Fed may still cut the Fed Funds Rate at least once this year. This was despite the fact that Americans are feeling miserable right now with the monthly measure of Consumer Sentiment collapsing to the lowest level in history. Trader reluctance to go into yet another highly unpredictable high stakes weekend with meaningful long positions caused prices to ease back to unchanged by the close and the indexes’ best week for months came to a relatively quiet end.Markets are quite heavily banking on the war being in the rear view mirror relatively soon with a noticeable improvement in Strait of Hormuz traffic, even if not back to pre-conflict levels for a while. Whether tolls are going to be charged and exactly to whom they will be paid doesn’t matter much to traders who feel they can probably live with $80-$90 oil for a while. Confirmation of this scenario will likely see a continuation of last week’s solid rally but in the case that everything goes to s**t (possibly as early as this weekend), this rather asymmetric view of things means that renewed significant falls in stock prices are far from off the table if oil prices get back into the $110-$150 range or higher. If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..Your brain is buggy software, badly infected with recency bias when it comes investing. Learn to zoom out... AND I QUOTE ..“We won’t applaud those who set the world on fire just because they turn up with a bucket.”Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez refuses to fully endorse the ceasefire.LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.comLast week’s best performing US sector: Technology (two biggest holdings: Welltower, Prologis) ⬆︎ 4.9% for the weekLast week’s worst performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) for the second week in a row ⬇︎ 3.9% for the week* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 3.6% last week, is down 0.4% so far this year and ended the week 2.6% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 4.0% last week, is up 6.2% so far this year and ended the week 3.8% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).* VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 4.9% last week, is up 5.7% so far this year and ended the week 3.6% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026). INTEREST RATES:* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.69% (3.70% a week ago)* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.81% (3.79% a week ago)* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬌ 3.94% (3.94% a week ago)* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬌ 4.31% (4.31% a week ago)* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.89% (4.88% a week ago)* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.91% (4.88% a week ago)Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending. *** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:* ⬇︎ 6.37%One week ago: 6.46%, one month ago: 6.07%, one year ago: 6.62%Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market SurveyINTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on April 29th?* 0.25% higher than now .. ⬆︎ 2% probability (0% a week ago)* Unchanged from now .. ⬇︎ 98% probability (99% a week ago)* 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎ 0% probability (1% a week ago)With six more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?* ⬌ Zero (unchanged from a week ago)Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool as of the market close on Friday. All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%). PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:* ⬆︎ 53%One week ago: 48%, one month ago: 53%, one year ago: 39%Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market closeThis widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index. A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.FEAR & GREED INDEX:“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market closeThe Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAMThis material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com