AIB Market Talk

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314

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May 2026

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About the show

AIB Market Talk features a bi-weekly discussion including our Economists and Treasury experts, providing you with specialist insight into the prevailing topics impacting Financial Markets. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. You can subscribe to the series or download individual episodes via iTunes, Android and Soundcloud.

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May 14, 202617 min

The Irish Economic Outlook: Resilience in Uncertain Times

Join Jane Kavanagh from AIB's Corporate Treasury desk alongside David McNamara, Chief Economist, for this latest edition of AIB Market Talk. Using AIB's latest Irish Economic Outlook as the foundation, Jane and David unpack the key insights, exploring the global backdrop and the risks shaping growth, inflation and consumer behaviour in the year ahead.In this episode the panel discusses:Global resilience entering 2026, supported by strong performance, modest tariffs, and on-going AI-led investmentShifts in the outlook driven by geopolitical tension, particularly in the Middle East, and implications for oil and inflationIreland's performance, with volatile GDP driven by exports and stronger focus on underlying domestic demandGrowth outlook moderating but remaining resilient, supported by a still-strong labour marketInflation expected to rise to 4%, driven by energy costs but well below 2022 peaksHigh exposure to energy shocks due to reliance on imported fossil fuels, highlighting need for long-term resilienceConsumer spending still growing, but with increasing caution as inflation impacts disposable incomeLabour market remaining robust, with slower job growth and emerging signs of AI-related shiftsHousing and investment outlook improving, supported by government policy, though supply remains below demandOverall outlook remains resilient, with strong public finances and economic fundamentals despite uncertaintyRead the AIB Irish Economic Outlook here: Irish Economic Outlook May 2026Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of IrelandAIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

April 28, 202629 min

Markets, Housing and Construction in Focus

Join Jane Kavanagh from AIB’s Corporate Treasury desk, alongside John Fahey, Senior Economist, and Pat O’Sullivan, Head of Real Estate Research, for this edition of AIB Market Talk. The discussion explores recent global market developments and what they mean for Ireland’s construction, housing and real estate sectors.In this episode, the panel discusses:The impact of geopolitical tensions on global markets, including energy prices, inflation expectations, interest rates and currency movements Diverging signals across financial markets, with equity markets showing resilience while interest rate markets continue to price inflation risks What the latest Irish Construction PMIs reveal about activity levels, new orders, employment trends and sector confidence Developments in the Irish housing market, including price trends, regional differences, supply constraints and affordability pressures Progress on housing supply, with a focus on apartment construction, government policy interventions and planning reforms The role of the National Development Plan and infrastructure investment in supporting future housing delivery Supports available to first-time buyers and what the medium-term outlook looks like for housing supply and demandRead the AIB Ireland Construction PMI® here. Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of IrelandAIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

March 31, 202627 min

Risks, Resilience and the Road Ahead in the Agriculture & Food Manufacturing sector

Join Jane Kavanagh from AIB’s Corporate Treasury desk, AIB Chief Economist David McNamara, Donal Whelton, Head of Agriculture & Food Manufacturing with AIB Business Banking, and Patrick Higgins, Head of Consumer Research, Food & Beverage at Goodbody, for this edition of AIB Market Talk focusing on Ireland’s agriculture and food manufacturing sector.In this episode, the panel discusses:How the agriculture and food manufacturing sector entered 2026 from a position of financial strength following a robust 2025The impact of global geopolitical developments on energy, commodity prices, inflation, and interest rate expectationsRising input costs, fertiliser availability, and energy price volatility, and what this means for farmers and food manufacturersFinancial resilience across the sector, including liquidity levels, balance sheet strength, and cash flow considerationsEvolving consumer behaviour and demand trends, including health, nutrition, and protein consumptionSustainability and climate transition challenges facing the sector, including emissions reduction targets, and changing farming practicesKey risks and opportunities for Irish agri‑food producers and manufacturers in 2026, including regulatory uncertainty and longer‑term competitivenessVisit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of IrelandAIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

February 27, 202630 min

Ireland’s Economic Outlook 2026: Markets, Tourism and Consumer Trends

Join Jane Kavanagh from AIB’s Corporate Treasury desk, AIB Chief Economist David McNamara, and Jonathan Clarke, Head of Hospitality, Tourism & Leisure with AIB Business Banking, for the first Market Talk podcast of 2026.In this wide‑ranging episode, the panel reflects on how the Irish economy and key sectors performed through a challenging 2025 and shares their outlook for 2026 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and shifting market dynamics. Tune in for:A deep dive into Ireland’s hospitality and tourism sector, including a slow start to 2025 followed by a strong rebound in visitor numbers and consumer spendingInsights into changing consumer behaviour, premiumisation trends, and the challenges facing pubs, restaurants, and rural hospitality businessesAn overview of Ireland’s domestic economic resilience, labour market strength, and how Ireland compares with global peersGlobal market perspectives covering the US, Eurozone, UK, and Asia, with a focus on growth trends, equity markets, and investor sentimentCentral bank outlooks for the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve, including expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026Currency market analysis, including euro/dollar and euro/sterling forecasts and what exporters should watchDiscussion on US trade policy, tariffs, and what recent developments mean for Ireland and European tradeA forward-looking view on tourism demand, hotel supply, cost pressures, and why the sector remains cautiously optimistic for the year aheadStay informed with expert analysis and practical outlooks for the new year. Subscribe to AIB Market Talk for ongoing financial market insights.AIB Economic Analysis - https://aib.ie/fxcentreAIB Business Banking Hospitality - https://aib.ie/business/sector-expertise/hospitalityVisit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of IrelandAIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

December 23, 202521 min

Year in Review: Markets, Central Banks & Currencies – AIB Market Talk 2025 Finale

Join Jane Kavanagh from AIB’s Corporate Treasury desk and AIB Senior Economist John Fahey for the final Market Talk podcast of 2025. In this special year-end episode, they reflect on a year dominated by uncertainty, trade tensions, and shifting central bank policies. Tune in for:A recap of 2025’s biggest market themes, including the impact of US tariffs and global trade agreements.Insights into central bank decisions: Fed, ECB, and Bank of England rate moves and what’s next for 2026.Currency market highlights: Dollar weakness, euro resilience, and sterling’s rollercoaster year.Forward-looking views on economic growth, inflation, and what could shape the markets in the year ahead.Quick-fire predictions for euro/dollar and euro/sterling pairs.Stay informed with expert analysis and practical outlooks for the new year. Subscribe to AIB Market Talk for ongoing financial market insights.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of IrelandAIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

December 9, 202517 min

From Slump to Surge? The Construction Sector’s Big Question

Join host Jason Rehill from the AIB Treasury Services team, alongside AIB Senior Economist John Fahey, and special guest Pat O’Sullivan, Head of AIB Real Estate Finance Research, as they discuss the final Construction PMI survey reports for 2025 in this special episode of AIB Market Talk.Tune in as they discuss: The key aspects of the construction index number with commercial and residential construction falling below 50 in November with activity losing momentum. The Irish CRE market which has fallen by both 30 - 40% giving a significant decline seen since the 1970s.Employment growth and firms pushing to return to high-quality office space are supporting selective demand, particularly for prime assets. However, vacancy rates remain elevated, and financing conditions are still tight.Ireland’s commercial property offering some of the highest yields in Europe, attracting renewed investor interest after recent value corrections.A review into what the construction sector should look like in 2026.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of IrelandAIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

December 3, 2025Episode 2712 min

Back in Business: Irish Manufacturing & Services on the Rise

Join host Jonathan Weir from AIB Treasury and AIB Chief Economist Dave McNamara for the latest PMIs edition of AIB Market Talk. In this episode, they delve into the November AIB Ireland Manufacturing and Services PMI data, exploring:How both sectors bounced back, with manufacturing and services posting robust growth after a softer patch earlier in the year.The key drivers behind the manufacturing recovery, including renewed export orders and the easing of tariff uncertainty.What’s fuelling the fastest expansion in services sector activity since April 2022 and why employment trends are diverging between sectors.The first rise in transport, tourism, and leisure in 10 months, and the evolving impact of AI on technology, media, and telecom employment.Insights into inflation pressures, input costs, and what the latest PMI figures signal for Ireland’s economic outlook as we head into 2026. Tune in for expert analysis, forward-looking business sentiment, and all the latest market insights, only on AIB Market Talk.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of IrelandAIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

November 17, 2025Episode 2611 min

AI has rapidly reshaped markets, is the economy next? - A Special Episode on the Economic Outlook Report

Join host Cormac Cunnane from the AIB Treasury team and AIB Chief Economist David McNamara as they break down the latest Economic Outlook report:Ireland’s growth forecast is revised up, with strong domestic demand and resilient multinationals.Tariff risks have eased, with effective rates lower than expected and key sectors shielded.Labour market growth is slowing, but wage growth remains solid.Risks are more balanced, with inflation and global events still in focus.This edition’s theme: AI’s early impact on growth, jobs, and productivity. Stay informed and subscribe for more expert insights on Ireland’s economy and financial markets.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of IrelandAIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

November 12, 2025Episode 2520 min

Dovish or Not? Central Banks Set the Tone for Year-End

In this episode of AIB Market Talk, host Joanne McCabe from AIB’s Customer Treasury Services team is joined by Senior Economist John Fahey to unpack the latest developments in global financial markets.Tune in as they discuss:The outcomes of recent ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve meetings, including policy decisions and market surprises.Why the ECB remains steady, the Fed delivered a rate cut but with less dovish guidance, and the Bank of England signals a possible cut in December.The impact of the US government shutdown on monetary policy and market data, and how its resolution could influence the Fed’s next move.Currency market trends, with a focus on the US dollar’s renewed momentum, euro-dollar forecasts, and the factors shaping sterling’s outlook ahead of the UK budget.Insights into interest rate expectations for the eurozone, US, UK, and Japan, and what these mean for investors and businesses as we approach year-end.Whether you’re a business leader, investor, or simply keen to stay informed, this episode delivers expert analysis on the forces driving today’s markets. Subscribe to AIB Market Talk for regular updates and insights from AIB’s team of specialists.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of IrelandAIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

November 5, 2025Episode 247 min

Ireland’s Services Surge as Manufacturing Stalls

Join host Sarah McGinley from AIB Treasury and AIB Chief Economist David McNamara for the latest PMIs edition of AIB Market Talk. In this episode, they unpack the latest AIB Ireland Manufacturing and Services PMI data for October, exploring:Why services sector activity has rebounded to its strongest level this year, and what’s driving the surgeThe shift in manufacturing trends, with growth easing after a strong start to 2025Insights into export markets, including the impact of weaker demand in Europe and ongoing tariff uncertaintiesSector highlights: robust growth in business, financial, and technology services, and the evolving role of AI in employment trendsForward-looking business sentiment and what the latest PMI figures signal for Ireland’s economic outlookVisit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of IrelandAIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2