Zero Days To Expiration

Hosted by Ernie Varitimos

Business Education

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155

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Jun 2026

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About the show

Coach Ernie spent 40 years in institutional trading, hedge fund management, and FinTech. Now he teaches retail traders how to flip the script on risk — using zero DTE butterfly strategies that risk small and aim big. Every episode covers volatility, volume profile, market structure, and the daily routine that separates professionals from everyone else. Live every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

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June 15, 2026Episode 5140 min

Keep What You Make with a Dynamic Trail

In the **final episode** of this powerful 3-part series, Coach Ernie reveals exactly **how professional 0DTE traders lock in and protect profits** using a sophisticated **Dynamic Trailing Stop** — the missing piece that turns good entries into consistent, compounding gains. This is where the rubber meets the road: once you're in a winning position, how do you **keep** what the market gives you instead of watching it evaporate? **🔑 What You'll Learn in This Episode** - When to activate profit management (the 75% unrealized gain rule) - How the **Dynamic Trail** tightens throughout the day: 75% → 50% → 30-40% → profit tent edges - Why the trail must adapt to **VIX regime** (low-vol vs high-vol behavior & Goldilocks Zone) - The rookie mistake that destroys 300-400% winners (holding for the rare profit-tent home run) - The "**Roundabout**" — why your equity curve goes sideways for 20–50 trades… then explodes higher - Real performance proof: stair-step compounding with tiny drawdowns - Practical psychology: handling distractions, emotions, and staying disciplined when you're up big - Advanced nuances (market structure, gamma walls, etc.) — and why beginners should **ignore them** at first Coach Ernie walks through the complete hold-or-fold decision framework, shows live examples, and explains how this system turns a ~50% win rate into a high-Sharpe, anxiety-free trading business. **📅 Complete 3-Part Series (All Slides Available)** - **Monday** – We Define Risk & Manage Profits (not risk) - **Tuesday** – Convexity Hunting Mastery + Heatmap Tool - **Wednesday** – Keep What You Make with a Dynamic Trail ← **You are here** 💾 **Full presentation slides linked in the description** — download and keep forever. 👉 Ready to complete your transformation and trade like a pro? Start your **4-week Observer coaching trial** for the price of a sandwich → **[https://fattail.ai/try](https://fattail.ai/try)** ❤️ Like • 🔔 Subscribe • 🔗 Share with a trader who gives back profits too often #0DTE #OptionsTrading #ButterflyOptions #ProfitManagement #DynamicTrail #TradingPsychology #FatTailStrategy #Convexity

June 14, 2026Episode 5030 min

Become a 0DTE Convexity Hunter

In **Part 2** of this must-watch 3-part series, Coach Ernie reveals the single biggest edge multiplier in our entire 0DTE strategy: **Convexity Hunting**. This is the professional secret that turns an already powerful asymmetric butterfly setup into an absolute monster — often 25–50% (sometimes 100%) cheaper for the same or better payoff. **🔑 What You'll Discover in This Episode** - What **convexity** really is (the "hockey stick" rapid rate-of-change in option pricing) - Why the **5–10% Debit Rule** (max 10% of butterfly width) is only the starting point — and how to push one or two strikes further out for massive savings - How shifting just 1–2 strikes can cut your debit **30–50%** with almost zero change to the payoff curve - Why **wider flies at constant risk-to-reward** (9:1 to 18:1) often outperform narrow ones - The critical role of **Gamma** and how volatility dictates fly width each morning - Live demo of the **Convexity Heatmap** tool — watch Coach find perfect high-convexity setups in seconds and copy them straight to Thinkorswim - Side-by-side payoff comparison: standard 10% debit fly vs convexity-optimized fly (same 10–12 point move → nearly identical profit… at half the cost) - How consistently hunting convexity creates a **widening gap** in your equity curve over time (gray line vs boosted green line) - Why chasing win rate is a loser's game — and how solving for payoff geometry + convexity wins long-term Coach also answers live viewer questions, explains morning vs all-day trading windows, directionality (you don't need to be good at it), and why this one skill separates retail traders from pros. **📅 Complete 3-Part Series (All Slides Linked)** - **Monday** – We Define Risk & Manage Profits - **Tuesday** – Become a 0DTE Convexity Hunter ← **You are here** - **Wednesday** – Keep What You Make with a Dynamic Trail 💾 **Full presentation slides available in the description** — download and build your personal 0DTE masterclass library. 👉 Want to master convexity hunting and trade like the pros in just 4 weeks? Start your **Observer coaching trial** today (price of a sandwich per week) → **[https://fattail.ai/try](https://fattail.ai/try)** 👍 Like • 🔔 Subscribe • 🔗 Share with traders still grinding tiny wins and big drawdowns #0DTE #Convexity #OptionsTrading #ButterflyOptions #FatTailStrategy #OptionsEdge #DayTrading

June 13, 2026Episode 4934 min

We Define Risk and Manage Profits

In this powerful opening episode of the Zero Days to Expiration Show, **Coach Ernie delivers one of the most important mental shifts you will ever make as a trader:** > "We don't manage risk after entry — we **define it completely at entry**… and then we spend 100% of our energy **managing profits**." This single mindset change is what separates consistently profitable professional 0DTE traders from the retail crowd that stays stuck in anxiety and drawdowns. **🔑 What You'll Learn in This Episode** - Why traditional "cut your losers / protect your downside" advice actually destroys asymmetric strategies - How long OTM call & put butterflies with the **5–10% Debit Rule** create true defined risk (you can never lose more than the small debit paid) and deliver **9:1 to 18:1 risk-to-reward** setups - The **MAD (Maximum Allowable Drawdown)** position-sizing system that caps session risk and keeps lifetime max drawdown under **6%** (usually 0–2.5%) - Why we hunt **convexity** instead of trading the expected move — and how the Convexity Heatmap tool finds these high-edge setups in seconds - The math and psychology behind a **right-skewed equity curve**, ~50–52% win rate, 1.6+ average reward-to-risk, and Sharpe ratios routinely above **3.0** (some accounts reaching 5.5) - Real 4-year performance proof and the stair-step equity curve that lets you compound with almost zero anxiety Coach also walks through the live Convexity Heatmap, shows exactly how the strategy works in both small moves and fat-tail explosions, and explains why this approach lets you "play for ties" while staying perfectly positioned for the big winners that actually move the account. **📅 This Week's Special 3-Part Series** - **Today (Monday)** – We Define Risk - **Tomorrow (Tuesday)** – Convexity Hunting Mastery + Heatmap Deep Dive - **Wednesday** – The Dynamic Trail: How We Actually Manage Profits 💾 **Full presentation slides are available in the description** — download them and keep them forever. 👉 Ready to trade like a pro with tiny defined risk and massive asymmetric upside? Start your **Observer coaching access** today for the price of a sandwich → **[https://fattail.ai/try](https://fattail.ai/try)** 👍 Smash the Like button • 🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications • 🔗 Share this with one trader who needs to hear it #0DTE #OptionsTrading #ButterflyOptions #Convexity #FatTailStrategy #TradingPsychology #DayTrading

May 29, 2026Episode 4539 min

The Best Way to Trade 0DTE

There are a dozen ways to trade zero-day options. Most of them will eat your account. One of them has the math on its side. Part 2 of the 28-Day series — the method behind the promise. Presentation https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/wcg3qs24dxkhmdtmv44ap/Best_Way_To_Trade_0DTE.pptx?rlkey=2183yer75ycjb6y4j1y68v696&dl=0 In this episode: The field: lotto calls, credit spreads, iron condors, naked options, gamma scalping The five criteria that define "best": defined risk, asymmetric payoff, rules-executable, repeatable, scalable Why the OTM butterfly clears all five — and why the alternatives each fail at least one What the alternatives sacrifice — and why those sacrifices compound against you over time The structural reason "best" is a math question, not a style question Best isn't an opinion. It's what the math forces you to. → Test it for 28 days as an Observer: https://flyonthewall.ai/try 4-week paid trial. Daily livestream, Friday coaching call, Discord community, and the full 0DTE framework. Stay through month-end and the Navigator annual plan unlocks at 35% off. Our goal is to make you Consistently Profitable, become an Independent Trader, and Trade at a Pro-level.

May 28, 2026Episode 4455 min

28 Days to Become a Profitable 0DTE Trader

Twenty-eight days isn't long enough to make you a master. It's exactly long enough to make you a trader who knows — knows the framework, knows whether the rules pay, and knows whether they can execute. Part 1 of a three-part series this week on the path from skeptic to consistently profitable 0DTE trader. In this episode: What "profitable" actually means at Day 28 — and why it's not what most traders think it means Why 28 days is the right diagnostic window — not 28 minutes, not 28 months The four things you'll have on Day 28 if you commit What separates the traders who get there from the ones who quit on Day 19 Presentation Link: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mhr1xgg8rguby0d7w8ubq/28-Days-to-Expert-v2_4.pptx?rlkey=twdxdgrwt61kszl7jk4603cv9&dl=0 The clock starts when you do. → Start your 28 days as an Observer: https://flyonthewall.ai/try 4-week paid trial. Daily livestream, Friday coaching call, Discord community, and the full 0DTE framework. Stay through month-end and the Navigator annual plan unlocks at 35% off. Our goal is to make you Consistently Profitable, become an Independent Trader, and Trade at a Pro-level.

May 20, 2026Episode 3853 min

Getting Closer to the Money Gonna Cost You

_*]:min-w-0 gap-3 font-claude-response"> You think moving your butterfly closer to the money gives you a better shot — but what if it's actually bleeding your account dry? In this episode, Coach Ernie breaks down the math behind why paying less for a better risk-to-reward is the real edge in 0-DTE trading. He walks through how to spot convexity in butterfly pricing — that moment when the cost drops off a cliff between strikes — and why chasing that drop instead of chasing proximity to the money is what separates consistent traders from the ones grinding sideways. What you'll learn: The 10% debit rule: why your butterfly should never cost more than 10% of the width — and why that's a ceiling, not a target How to read the price curve between strikes and find the "kink" where convexity lives Why a cheaper fly further out can pay the same or more than an expensive one closer in — for 40% less capital The expected move trap: why trading inside the expected move limits your upside while exposing you to the same losses Real examples from live 0-DTE SPX chains showing exactly how Coach filters and selects positions How this approach produces a Sharpe ratio of 4 with max drawdown under 6% and a 50/50 win rate Coach also shares takeaways from his recent keynote at TraderFest, hosted by Tradier and sponsored by Cboe, where he presented this exact framework to a room full of professional traders. Ready to see how this works in real time? Join Coach Ernie's live trade room at flyonthewall.ai — watch every trade, every receipt, every decision as it happens. Start with a no-commitment 4-week trial, cancel anytime week by week. Your first look at how convexity trading actually works is just one click away.

May 6, 2026Episode 3535 min

Your 0DTE Strategy Only Covers 25% of the Day

Most 0DTE traders don't realize they're only participating in 25% of the actual trading day — and in a low-VIX regime like this one, that's exactly where the wheels come off. When volatility drops, premium gets pulled out of your contracts the day before you ever place the trade, and the real moves happen overnight while the market is closed to you. So you wake up to a gap, watch a session of dojis, and wonder why your usual setup keeps grinding nickels. Presentation Link This week's series breaks down the fix: the Batman 1DTE — a strategy Coach Ernie and the Fly On The Wall traders developed in late 2023 specifically for low-VIX, gap-and-doji conditions. In this episode: Why low volatility is the worst regime for credit spreads (and why "high win rate" is a canard) The 25% problem: the real trading day is 24 hours, not 6.5 Gaps and dojis — what they tell you about where the premium actually went The Batman setup: long call fly above + long put fly below, placed the night before How a six-month member-run experiment turned this into a permanent fixture in the VIX Playbook When to switch from 0DTE to 1DTE — and how the Zombieland regime tells you to push DTE even further out Q&A: ES futures vs. SPX cost math, capital allocation per Batman, and PDT considerations This is Day 1 of a three-part series. Tomorrow: the trade mechanics — entry, sizing, and profit management. Wednesday: the results. Want to trade the Batman alongside Coach and the Navigator group? Start your 4-week free trial at https://flyonthewall.ai/try Our goal is to make you Consistently Profitable, become an Independent Trader, and Trade at a Pro-level.

May 4, 2026Episode 3543 min

Why High Win Rate Strategies Destroy Accounts

In this episode of Zero Days to Expiration, Coach Ernie unpacks why high win rate strategies quietly destroy retail trading accounts — and why the inverse approach (low win rate, asymmetric risk-to-reward) is how professionals actually trade 0DTE options. Why 75% of your profit comes from extrinsic value — and why that changes everything about where you place your butterflies The "loser distribution" that creates rollercoaster equity curves, and the right-skewed long-tail distribution that produces a stair-step account instead The 10% debit rule for wide butterflies and why pushing further out of the money is counterintuitive but mathematically correct The probability breakdown nobody talks about: you only land inside the profit tent ~12.5% of the time — and that's a feature, not a bug Why volume profile, node edges, and market memory are real structure — while trend lines, fair value gaps, and moving averages are not How GEX and gamma exposure tell you when price is in compression vs expansion mode Join Fly on the Wall https://flyonthewall.ai/try

May 3, 2026Episode 3453 min

Mastering Volume Profile for 0DTE Entries

Return to the foundational tool that powers every high-probability 0DTE butterfly: Volume Profile done right. Coach Ernie shows why raw POC often misleads, how to read true structure (high-volume nodes, valleys, market memory), and how to combine it with convexity and GEX for precise entries that fit the 10% debit rule. Step-by-step TradingView + FlyOnTheWall.ai walkthrough using today's developing market. Build the skill that makes your pre-trade checklist bulletproof. Presentation: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/85x7ridm1nov6nw99v3d0/Mastering-Volume-Profile-for-0DTE-Entries.pptx?rlkey=tiy7n66rcivsbcyz33j3pmbta&dl=0 Join Fly on the Wall https://flyonthewall.ai/try

May 2, 2026Episode 3339 min

How Cheaper Flies Make More Money

Master the single most important pre-trade rule in 0DTE butterfly trading: never pay more than 10% of the fly width. Coach Ernie explains where the rule comes from, the math behind why lower-debit flies deliver higher percentage returns on your defined risk, and exactly how to scan for and build these asymmetric setups. See real examples of wide vs narrow, expensive vs cheap flies and why this discipline alone separates professional results from random outcomes. Perfect routine reinforcement with today's platform demo. Presentation https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/tlahu0m6qlkrogsgpzaho/10-percent-debit-rule.pptx?rlkey=tiw729gqw4fjiapf8kk0j32xo&dl=0 Join Fly on the Wall https://flyonthewall.ai/try