Kansas Wheat: Lessons From a Brutal 2026 Crop
The 2026 wheat season showed just how quickly a promising crop can become a test of every management decision a producer makes. Host Aaron Harries sits down with K-State wheat and forages specialist Romulo Lollato Ph.D., CSIRO farming systems agronomist John Kirkegaard Ph.D. and Dave Deken for a roundtable on the 2026 Kansas and Oklahoma wheat crop. They trace the season from strong fall establishment through drought, unusual heat, freeze damage, hail and harvest rain, then look at the management lessons producers can carry into the next crop. The conversation covers rainfall timing, planting date, grazing, variety selection, wheat genetics, nitrogen management and the value of building more flexibility into wheat systems. Key takeaways: Warm fall conditions built strong stands but also contributed to greater water use before spring. In a water-limited wheat crop, a small amount of rain at the right growth stage can have an outsized impact on yield potential. Early planting and dual-purpose wheat can create additional grazing and management options when grain production becomes less attractive. Modern wheat genetics helped damaged plants compensate through secondary tillers and maintain usable grain quality. Nitrogen, variety and other input decisions should reflect changing yield potential instead of assuming the crop established in fall is the crop that will reach harvest. Detailed timestamped rundown 00:00 – Cold open — Lollato, Kirkegaard and Deken preview the episode’s central question: what management choices still work when weather pushes a wheat crop to its limits? 00:26 – The 2026 wheat roundtable begins — Aaron Harries introduces the guests and frames the season as an unusually widespread disaster for hard red winter wheat across the Central and Southern Plains. 03:03 – Kansas starts with “hope and despair” — Lollato describes excellent fall establishment, favorable moisture and warm temperatures that created large, well-tillered plants heading into winter. 04:32 – Warm weather becomes a liability — Winter turns dry while temperatures remain above normal. Wheat continues growing and consuming water that will be badly needed later in the spring. 06:00 – Drought and freeze damage stack up — March and April bring dry conditions, rapid crop development and damaging freezes. Later hail adds another layer of yield loss. 08:00 – Rain finally arrives—at harvest — May rainfall comes too late to rescue much of the crop, and subsequent wet conditions prolong harvest in parts of Kansas. 09:22 – Oklahoma’s highly variable crop — Deken describes enormous field-to-field and county-to-county variation, with some producers choosing to keep cattle grazing poor-looking wheat. 11:29 – Heat, low yields and an early harvest — Oklahoma experiences February heat, disappointing yields in several regions and a harvest roughly two weeks ahead of normal. 13:03 – An Australian view of Kansas wheat — Kirkegaard recounts seeing drought and freeze damage firsthand during the Wheat Quality Tour and compares Great Plains conditions with Australian production. 16:25 – Livestock as an “exit option” — Australia’s wheat-sheep systems illustrate how grazing, hay and dual-purpose wheat can create alternatives when grain yield potential deteriorates. 17:35 – Managing risk without the same insurance system — Kirkegaard explains how Australian growers rely more heavily on management flexibility, stored moisture, early sowing and alternative crop uses. 20:08 – Moisture, planting date and variety — Deken shares an Oklahoma perspective that moisture is the first limitation, followed by planting date and then variety selection. 21:24 – Breeding for system resilience — Kirkegaard discusses wheat designed around flexibility: long coleoptiles for deep planting, awnless wheat suited for hay and vigorous short-season wheat. 23:09 – Modern genetics show their value — Harries and Lollato discuss plants recovering from primary-tiller freeze damage and the remarkable ability of wheat to compensate. 23:58 – What could two inches of rain do? — Lollato explains how strategically timed rainfall can dramatically raise yield potential in a water-limited environment. 25:15 – Turning a bad year into better decisions — Research plots allow scientists to study which management practices performed best under the same stresses producers experienced. 26:00 – Smarter nitrogen decisions — Lollato describes research using current conditions and historical weather outcomes to estimate yield potential before major nitrogen investments are made. 27:35 – One more weather threat: tornadoes — The group adds some humor to a season that seemingly delivered every possible weather hazard. 29:02 – El Niño and global weather risk — The discussion shifts to seasonal forecasting, Australia’s El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole signals, and how forecasts can affect fertilizer purchasing and crop decisions. 32:19 – Are Oklahoma growers coming back? — Deken says most producers he spoke with planned to plant wheat again despite the difficult crop. 33:49 – Why wheat remains in Kansas rotations — Lollato explains wheat’s value beyond grain, including residue, soil-moisture conservation, weed management, rotational diversity and grazing flexibility. 35:29 – Closing thoughts — The panel finishes its post-mortem on 2026 and looks ahead to another wheat season. Kansas Wheat WheatsOnYorMind.com
