UPTHINKING FINANCE

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Jul 2026

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A Podcast that offers a unique and discerning view of economics and financial planning Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.

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July 31, 202646 min

Navigating Markets as a Thoughtful Investor, Ep #084

Upthinking Finance™ is now trademarked On the show this week, I’m joined by Larry Reddell, Partner at St. James Investment Company, to discuss the changing landscape of investing and financial stewardship. We explore the enduring principles of long-term, value-oriented investing in a market that can feel saturated with speculation and passive strategies. Larry shares his experience on the importance of independent thinking and a commitment to client trust, and digs into the lessons learned from market bubbles and the implications of global economic shifts. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... [01:57] Larry’s early career: partnership culture, training, responsibilities [03:22] Contrast between long-term business building vs. short-term gains/acquisition strategies [07:02] Core relationships with original investors and philosophy of stewardship [10:17] Preference for risk management over short-term performance chasing [18:39] Rationale for a highly concentrated portfolio [21:16] Dangers and distortions from passive investing and style boxes [26:13] Prevalence of behavioral biases after bear markets/booms [35:06] Consistency of investment process through cycles [40:02] Shift from globalization to deglobalization and its implications Speculation vs. Investing Larry and I discuss the difference between speculation and true investing, and Larry paints a picture of markets flooded since 2008 by liquidity and risk-taking, with double and triple-leveraged ETFs and story-driven euphoria replacing careful analysis. He firmly believes that enduring returns come from thoughtful investing, rooted in identifying businesses with clear value and resilient fundamentals. Rethinking Risk and Reward Institutional orthodoxy often dictates that managers chase benchmarks or style boxes, regardless of underlying value. This can lead to unhealthy short-termism and a misunderstanding of risk. Larry discusses why his firm intentionally avoids the pressure to keep up with benchmarks, preferring to communicate clearly that they “lag” in euphoric up markets but provide crucial downside protection when turbulence strikes. Concentrated Portfolios: Fewer Bets, Better Outcomes Challenging the school of thought that more diversification automatically equals less risk, Larry describes why St. James Investment Company maintains a highly concentrated portfolio—currently only 23 positions. He describes how they seek out durable, proven business models with strong balance sheets and allocate in size only to those ideas with genuine margin of safety. Concentration, when paired with strict criteria and deep research, tends to produce stronger risk-adjusted results than the passive, index-heavy structures currently dominating markets. Passive Investing and Structural Vulnerabilities As more dollars are funneled automatically into the biggest index constituents, valuation discipline falls by the wayside, creating a top-heavy market where price no longer reflects fundamental value. The lack of active price discovery, originally intended as the ballast for indexing, flips the system on its head, potentially laying the groundwork for future instability. Preparing, Not Predicting Risk management in the current environment means preparing for a wide range of outcomes rather than making predictions. You cannot predict; you can only prepare, which for Larry translates into sticking to a flexible, value-focused approach, resisting crowded trades, and always remembering that capital stewardship requires humility. The broader macroeconomic landscape has profound implications for investors, which is why there is an increasing preference for hard assets, including selective exposure to precious metals and industrials poised to benefit from structural realignments. That ability to reposition away from overvalued consensus trades is more important than ever. Larry Redell is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People Mentioned The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing by Benjamin Graham The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-term Investing in a Short-term World US Markets, Company Earnings, Stock Market Trends, Market News | Morningstar Connect With Larry Redell St. James Investment Company Connect with Emerson Fersch Capital Investment Advisers On LinkedIn Subscribe to Upthinking Finance Audio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

June 26, 202649 min

The Art and Science of Return Stacking, Ep #83

Upthinking Finance™ is now trademarked The enduring wisdom of financial planning often revolves around diversification(1). Yet, as highlighted in this episode of Upthinking Finance™, the ways we balance portfolios—and the very assumptions underpinning traditional advice—may be overdue for review. We’re focusing on the critical importance of risk management for investors, especially in the years leading up to retirement, and on how past market conditions may not reflect what lies ahead. My guest, Mike Philbrick, shares his thoughts on the shift from decades of falling interest rates and stable inflation to a more volatile environment marked by rising rates, inflation shocks, and evolving global dynamics. He believes that investors should move beyond traditional stock and bond portfolios by embracing greater diversification—including exposure to commodities (2), global assets, and alternative strategies like trend following and return stacking. (1) There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk. (2) The fast price swings in commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. Commodities include increased risks, such as political, economic, and currency instability, and may not be suitable for all investors. The End of a 40-Year Tailwind The last four decades have been a period largely defined by falling interest rates, disinflation, and economic globalization. These conditions created a supportive backdrop for the classic 60/40 stock-bond portfolio. When stocks faltered, bonds often thrived, offering consistent dampening of volatility. This yin-yang dynamic established a pattern of reliable returns and relatively muted drawdowns for balanced portfolios. However, the recent shift—marked by rising interest rates, surges in inflation, and increasing geopolitical fragmentation—has upended this familiar regime. Not only have stocks and bonds begun to move more closely together, but bond investors have faced a five-year bear market. For anyone banking on the playbook from the last 30 or 40 years, the past few years have been a wake-up call. Recognizing and Addressing Portfolio Blind Spots One concept we discuss is the implicit risk of overreliance on market-capitalization-weighted indices such as the S&P 500. Historically, dominant sectors and companies shift dramatically within these indices. In 2008, Exxon was the largest S&P component, only to be eclipsed by technology firms in recent years. Today, the S&P 500 has minimal exposure to commodities and natural resources, even though these sectors can play a crucial role during certain economic cycles. A key theme that emerges from our discussion is the importance of true diversification—not just across stocks and bonds, but also across economic regimes (rising vs. falling growth and inflation), sectors, geographies, and alternative return streams. Index funds do not provide equal sector exposure, and investors holding only S&P 500 funds may be exposed to major blind spots, especially if the tech-heavy US market falters or if global commodity cycles become more pronounced. The Power of Return Stacking The discussion explored the concept of “return stacking”—layering alternative investment strategies, such as managed futures or trend-following funds, on top of traditional portfolios without the need to sell core holdings. Traditional diversification often means “diversification by subtraction”; selling some equities or bonds to buy alternatives. However, this approach can feel like a drag in bull markets when those alternatives underperform. Return stacking, however, enables investors to keep their core portfolio intact while adding diversifiers—achieving additive, rather than subtractive, diversification. Even when these strategies lag, the core portfolio continues to deliver, and in times of crisis, the diversifiers can shine. For example, trend-following and managed futures strategies have historically delivered significant positive returns during events such as the 2000 tech crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and the inflation-driven declines of 2021-2022. Embracing Flexibility, Facing Uncertainty Embracing new strategies, acknowledging the limitations of prediction, and preparing for multiple possible futures isn’t just smart—it’s necessary. The era of relying solely on what’s worked before is over. By recognizing blind spots, embracing innovative methods like return stacking, and acknowledging the behavioral realities of investing, both advisors and investors can build portfolios capable of withstanding whatever the next decade may bring. Mike Philbrick is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People Mentioned Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times - and Bad (3) (3) Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Connect With Mike Philbrick ReSolve Asset Management Connect with Emerson Fersch Capital Investment Advisers On LinkedIn Subscribe to Upthinking Finance Audio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

May 29, 202657 min

Balancing Human Intuition and Machine Intelligence, Ep #82

As AI tools continue to develop, prompting equal measures of optimism and apprehension, we explore their profound impact on our lives—from the opportunities it creates to the risks it poses. Global Futurist and Foresight Consultant John Smart joins us to examine how AI is not just a technological leap but an extension of humanity’s collective wisdom and decision-making. We discuss practical uses of AI in everyday life, its potential to enhance or erode critical thinking skills, and the ethical and personal boundaries we have to navigate as individuals and professionals. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... [05:23] Engaging with AI technology [15:16] Computer adaptive learning tools [18:24] AI's Role in Future Work [23:19] Using AI for everyday tasks [31:34] Future of personal AI privacy [36:33] Embracing cognitive diversity [42:14] AI content filtering issues [44:07] Balancing automation with personal touch [52:55] Is AI a Magic 8 Ball? Strategic Optimism and Defensive Pessimism: Two Lenses on the Future The conversation begins by highlighting the fundamental roles of “strategic optimism” and “defensive pessimism” in shaping our reactions to new technologies. Strategic optimists are inclined to seek opportunities and set ambitious goals with new tools, while defensive pessimists naturally focus on potential risks and safeguards. Both mindsets are essential, especially in the context of AI, which has unleashed unprecedented possibilities alongside complex challenges. AI as Cognitive Extender AI, at its best, acts as a cognitive extender—an assistant that summarizes vast amounts of data, explains concepts, and helps individuals make more informed decisions. AI excels when kept in the “assistant” role, supporting human judgment rather than supplanting it. Technology becomes a force multiplier—freeing up time for more meaningful human pursuits. Concerns arise when AI oversteps into decision-making, especially in high-stakes areas like personal finance or health guidance. The Decentralization Imperative and the Need for Discernment A promising counterweight to the risks of centralized, top-down AI is a movement toward decentralization. Here, the power to model, store, and protect sensitive data lies more with individuals and small organizations than with monolithic tech giants. This could democratize the benefits of AI and bolster privacy, provided that users engage thoughtfully and critically with their personal AI tools. Central to safe and fruitful AI adoption is discernment and the ongoing process of evaluating how, when, and why to use these systems. Using human discernment ensures AI remains a tool, not a crutch for passivity or a gateway to manipulation. No matter how sophisticated AI becomes, it cannot replace authentic human connection, emotional intuition, or spiritual meaning. The challenge is to harness AI’s power to offload mundane tasks and support discovery, while preserving the uniquely human qualities that make our personal and professional lives rich and rewarding. John Smart is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People Mentioned Khan Academy Khanmigo Brave New Words: How AI Will Revolutionize Education and Why That's a Good Thing – by Sal Khan Reweaving the Web – by Richard Whitt Who Can You Trust? – by Rachel Botsman The Difference – by Scott Page AI Chatbots: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO) Bicentennial Man Epoch AI JioBharat 4G Button Phones Connect With John Smart John Smart The Foresight Guide Connect with Emerson Fersch Capital Investment Advisers On LinkedIn Subscribe to Upthinking Finance Audio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

May 1, 202623 min

New Beginnings: A Triple Threat Guide, Ep #81

Upthinking Finance™ is now trademarked For many young people today, money feels confusing, stressful, and often out of reach. Between rising living costs, debt, and uncertainty about the future, it’s no surprise that financial planning can feel overwhelming. In this episode of UpThinking Finance, we cut through the noise with a refreshingly simple approach: a three-step framework designed to help you feel more in control of your money—without sacrificing your present lifestyle. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... [00:45] Why young people feel left out of financial planning [03:15] How much savings is enough (and flexibility within it) [04:00] Balancing savings vs retirement contributions (401k insight) [07:02] Tackling debt with the right mindset [12:23] How to invest based on age, goals, and time horizon, plus the importance of starting early [15:28] The importance of letting long-term investments grow and using savings (not investments) as your safety net. [16:26] Roth IRA vs Traditional IRA explained simply [19:08] Why starting early matters more than how much you invest Why Young People Feel Stuck Financially Before diving into strategy, it’s important to acknowledge the reality that many people face. A growing number of young adults are: Living paycheck to paycheck Managing debt alongside daily expenses Working multiple jobs just to stay afloat Feeling unsure where to even begin with saving or investing On top of this, wider economic and geopolitical uncertainty has created a sense of instability that makes long-term planning feel almost pointless. But you can plan for the future while still living comfortably today—you just need to have a game plan and understand the steps you need to take and in which order. Step 1: Build Emergency Savings First The foundation of any financial plan isn’t investing, it’s stability. Before anything else, the goal is to build 3–6 months of essential expenses in savings. This acts as your financial safety net for unexpected events like medical bills, job loss, or urgent repairs. This matters because it prevents you from falling into debt when emergencies happen, reduces financial stress and improves day-to-day confidence, and gives you flexibility and breathing room. A practical tip highlighted in the episode is rebalancing priorities. For example, if you’re contributing heavily to a pension or 401(k) but struggling month-to-month, it may make sense to temporarily reduce contributions (while still getting employer match) to build up accessible savings first. The key thing is to plan for the present before you plan for the future. Step 2: Tackle Debt with the Right Mindset Once your emergency fund is in place, the next step is addressing debt, but with a shift in how you think about money. One of the most powerful reframes shared in the episode is this: Money owed is not your money. This mindset helps prioritize paying down debt before spending on non-essentials or investing prematurely. Not all debt is equal: Good debt (potentially beneficial): Student loans that increase earning potential Mortgages that build long-term wealth Business loans for income generation Bad debt (typically harmful): High-interest credit cards Spending on non-essential, short-term purchases Debt that exceeds what you can realistically afford The biggest factor is affordability. Even “good” debt becomes problematic if repayments strain your finances. But more importantly, the order matters. You need to first build savings, then tackle debt, and avoid draining your emergency fund to pay everything off at once. This prevents the cycle of paying off debt—only to fall back into it when life happens. Step 3: Start Investing Based on Your Life Stage Once your savings are secure and debt is under control, your money finally becomes your money, and that’s when investing begins. But investing isn’t one-size-fits-all, three key factors should guide it: Your age Your financial goals Your time horizon (when you’ll need the money) In your 20s, you need to focus on growth (long-term investing), then in your 30s–40s, you should be balancing growth with life goals (e.g., buying a home), then near retirement, you can shift toward more conservative investments. One common mistake is being too cautious too early. If you have decades ahead of you, avoiding growth investments can limit your long-term potential. Why Starting Early Matters More Than Anything One of the most powerful insights from the episode is the impact of time and consistency. Even small contributions, started early, can outperform larger contributions started later—thanks to compound growth. It’s not necessarily about investing huge amounts. It’s about starting as early as possible and staying consistent. Financial success isn’t about quick wins or “home runs”—it’s about steady, disciplined progress. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People Mentioned Rocket Money Mapped: U.S. States Where Americans Can Save Easily—And Where They Can’t - Voronoi Connect with Emerson Fersch & Amy LeNoble Capital Investment Advisers Emerson Fersch on LinkedIn Amy LeNoble on LinkedIn Subscribe to Upthinking Finance Audio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

March 20, 202646 min

Metal Mania, Ep #80

In this episode, we’re joined by metals market experts from Aberdeen Investments, Bob Minter, Director of Investment Strategy, and Dan Magnusson, Senior Director of Mutual Fund Operations, to break down the dramatic movements in the precious and industrial metals markets over the past year. They take you through the cyclical history of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper, exploring what’s behind their recent surges, shifting correlations, and the complex global forces at play. Bob and Dan demystify how rising geopolitical tensions, evolving central bank policies, and the global race for electrification are rewriting old market rules and opening new opportunities. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... 05:38 Palladium's role in auto standards 11:36 What has changed in correlations? 15:19 Gold bull market's key drivers 18:02 Silver supply struggles persist 21:06 China's electrification and infrastructure boom 24:38 Geopolitical shifts and market impact 29:36 Rethinking traditional portfolio strategies 36:18 Commodity cycles and inflation trends 40:24 Diversifying commodity investments From Stagnation to Sudden Growth The years 2011 to 2020 are sometimes dubbed the “lost decade” for precious metals, especially gold and platinum, as prices remained flat while the stock market soared. Historical price movements in gold were typically tied inversely to real interest rates. When interest rates rose (after adjusting for inflation), gold, which generates no income, tended to fall due to opportunity costs. However, this relationship broke down sharply in 2022 as gold rallied even as many ETF investors were selling, missing the underlying market shift. The drivers for “industrial” versus “precious” metals diverged as well. Silver, for instance, gets around 60% of its demand from industrial uses, most notably in solar panels, unlike gold, which serves mostly as a store of value and a central bank reserve. Platinum and palladium are heavily linked to catalytic converters in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, and swings in global EV adoption ripple through their prices. Electrification, Supply Deficits, and Geopolitical Shifts The infrastructure boom of the 21st century, following on the heels of the 20th, will require massive inputs of copper, aluminum, platinum, palladium, and silver. American electricity demand, flat for two decades, began rising again and is expected to accelerate, driven by data centers and AI. Meanwhile, supply deficits are becoming more acute. Silver, for example, has been in deficit since 2019, as high-quality ore bodies are exhausted and miners struggle to open new sites, sometimes limited by environmental concerns or indigenous land rights. Companies like Samsung are directly securing metal supply by funding reopening of mines, demonstrating the seriousness of these shortages. The Evolving Role of Commodities Given these shifting dynamics, what place do metals and commodities play in a modern portfolio? Bob and Dan agree that the traditional 60/40 stocks-to-bonds portfolio construction is outdated, especially as historical correlations weaken and new macro forces take hold. The sweet spot for commodity exposure, particularly using benchmarks like the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), is around 6.5–7.5%. Allocating less does little to move the needle, while more may not add incremental benefit. It's also vital to focus on broad commodity exposure to ensure diversification and account for changing correlations over time. Commodities should be a strategic, long-term allocation—one spanning decades, not years—reflecting the enduring demand from electrification, AI-driven data centers, and shifting geopolitical alliances. The market’s fundamental drivers have changed, making metals and commodities more than just a tactical play, they’re now essential portfolio mainstays. Investors who understand these new dynamics, diversify intelligently, and look forward rather than just backward, will be best positioned to navigate the evolving world of global finance. Bob Minter and Dan Magnusson are not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People Mentioned Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) Connect with Bob Minter and Dan Magnusson Dan Magnusson on LinkedIn Bob Minter on LinkedIn Connect with Emerson Fersch Capital Investment Advisers On LinkedIn Subscribe to Upthinking Finance Audio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

February 26, 202645 min

The End of the Line, Ep #079

I welcome back market analyst, former hedge fund manager, and author Alex Krainer to discuss the intersection of global finance, organized crime, and geopolitical intrigue. We explore headline-grabbing scandals like the Epstein list and their far-reaching implications on economic and political systems in the UK, Europe, and beyond. Alex breaks down the hidden machinations of money laundering, offshore banking, and the underbelly of globalized crime networks, connecting the dots between historical cover-ups, bank settlements, and power players in government and finance. The conversation also includes the collapse of public trust in institutions, the emergence of alternative power structures, and the underlying volatility in today’s markets. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... [00:00] The Epstein list's economic implications [04:18] Recent collapse of institutional credibility [14:07] Recent revelations led to high-profile downfalls [18:12] Money laundering, noise, and patterns [23:55] Organized crime's global impact [30:27] The American system vs. free trade [33:42] Markets signal instability amidst geopolitical turmoil [38:02] Stay grounded and rely on objective strategies [41:25] Keep an open mind, challenge assumptions The Epstein List Sends Shockwaves Through the Establishment The Epstein list has dropped like a stone into the still water of public consciousness, sending ripples through the political, financial, and media classes. Alex discusses the direct connections between power players like Lord Peter Mandelson, the Rothschild family, and Jeffrey Epstein, framing this scandal as “a massive blow” to the legitimacy of Western governance, particularly in the UK and by extension, Europe. The unraveling of these connections is not just a matter of personal or political scandal—it strikes at the economic root, and could lead to total loss of credibility for the British ruling class, a phenomenon without real precedent in the age of instant, uncensored communication enabled by the internet and social media. Is Globalism Dead? The Davos conference earlier this year, according to Alex, may have marked a turning point. For decades, the British model of free trade—open markets, global flows of capital, labor, and goods—has reigned. The alternative, the so-called American system, is founded on tariffs, domestic market protection, and intentional reinvestment in national infrastructure and industry. Alex points out the historic resistance to this approach—most notably, how U.S. leaders promoting this system have met violent ends. The geopolitical reverberations are profound: if the legitimacy of Western financial and political systems collapses under the weight of scandal and crime, and the U.S. pivots inward, the world may be witnessing the death knell of globalism as we know it. Markets in the Eye of the Storm: How Should We Invest? So what are investors supposed to do in this environment? Alex stresses the importance of trend following as an investing philosophy—trusting in the wisdom of collective market movement, devoid of emotion or agenda. He suggests that the current environment, characterized by emotional, rapidly spiking (and suddenly crashing) markets, is not a time for prediction but for resilience and strategic positioning. The best anchors are clear personal goals and a strong spiritual foundation, which help investors weather storms no algorithm can forecast. The old narratives are crumbling, new challenges and opportunities are emerging, and the only certainty is that adaptability will be essential—in finance, in politics, and in life. Alex Krainer is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People Mentioned Promethean Updates - YouTube Connect With Alex Krainer Krainer Analytics Alex Krainer on Substack Alex Kranier on X Connect with Emerson Fersch Capital Investment Advisers On LinkedIn Subscribe to Upthinking Finance Audio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

January 30, 202642 min

2026 Economic Forecast, Ep #078

Upthinking Finance™ is now trademarked We welcome back Julia C. Hermann, Global Market Strategist at New York Life Investments, for a wide-ranging conversation on the 2026 economic outlook. We’re discussing the key macro trends shaping the future, from the ongoing AI boom and its comparison to the dot-com era, to the Federal Reserve's policy moves, the impact of tariffs and inflation, and the fast-evolving global geopolitical landscape. Julia offers a balanced perspective, exploring why the current environment may feel at odds with headlines about global chaos, and how investors can think about risk, portfolio construction, and opportunities in this unique moment. The discussion covers everything from the intricacies of bond-market risks and Fed independence to energy markets, Japan’s financial experiment, and the emerging role of China on the world stage. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... 03:34 Navigating global economic uncertainty. 07:35 AI investment and tax incentives. 11:17 Fed independence and Powell's influence. 18:30 Inflation driven by housing costs. 26:09 Global economies wrestle with debt. 27:59 Japan's tenuous reflation experiment. 33:01 Fed influence vs market rates. 35:52 AI and US-China dynamics. 38:12 Focus on diversification and quality. Is the AI Boom Hype or Here to Stay? Many are quick to compare today’s AI surge to the dot-com bubble of the late ‘90s. However, Julia draws a firm line between the two. In the dot-com era, overvaluation was driven by hope in unproven business models. This time, it’s established tech giants, think Magnificent Seven, NVIDIA, etc., that are at the forefront. The current rally is grounded in real earnings, not just speculative future growth. These companies are reinvesting 50-60% of operating cash flow into capital expenditures, especially in AI infrastructure. Plus, recent fiscal legislation, like the One Big Beautiful Bill, supercharges this by reintroducing immediate expensing of capital investment, encouraging more spending and innovation. That depth and durability make a near-term AI bubble burst unlikely. Inflation, Bond Markets, and the Limits of Prediction Inflation fears remain front and center for many investors. Despite headlines and some price increases from tariffs and supply disruptions, the full picture is more complicated. Inflation is broader than goods alone, with shelter costs making up about 45% of the inflation basket and being the major story over the past year. Energy prices have actually provided relief, with increases in some goods more than offset elsewhere. When it comes to fixed income, Julia n remains cautious about “adding duration”, a stance held even as long-term rates surprised many by coming down during 2025. The Fed’s Role, Policy Independence, and Market Communication A change in Federal Reserve leadership doesn’t necessarily mean the end of balanced monetary policy. The Fed chair is influential, but decisions require consensus from the Federal Open Market Committee. What the chair does control, however, is messaging. Ever since Greenspan’s celebrity status and Bernanke's implementation of greater transparency, communication has become monetary policy’s second lever. Markets obsess over every word, precisely because perception is reality. As long as the Fed maintains credibility and independence, the machinery keeps humming even amidst leadership changes. Global Geopolitics From Venezuela’s oil politics to Japan’s bond market dynamics, the global picture is far from simple. While headlines speculate about the impact of repatriating assets or local institutions being forced to buy domestic bonds (what’s known as “financial repression”), Julia provides some context: no single country, including major players like Japan or China, can destabilize U.S. Treasuries thanks to the depth and liquidity of American markets. While risks exist, global investors still see the U.S. market as the safest and most attractive port in any storm. Back to Basics for Portfolio Construction In an age where hot trends often trump fundamentals, the long-neglected virtues of diversification and quality are back in style, a shift driven by the realities of a later-stage economic and credit cycle. As the world grows more complex, holistic, risk-managed approaches are once again proving their worth. Noise will always exist, and risk never disappears. But with a disciplined framework, an awareness of historical analogues, and a focus on fundamentals, investors can look toward 2026 with confidence and clarity. Julia Hermann is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources Mentioned Julia’s Podcast Connect With Julia Hermann Julia C. Hermann on LinkedIn Connect with Emerson Fersch Capital Investment Advisers On LinkedIn Subscribe to Upthinking Finance Audio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

December 12, 202523 min

Life Transitions: A Testimonial of Choice, Ep #077

Upthinking Finance™ is now trademarked On the show this week, we’re exploring the real-life transitions and perspectives around retirement and life after work. In this episode, we’re joined by a diverse panel, Vicki Goodman, Darci Fersch, Cookie Talmage, Howard Lenoble, Joy Lunt, and Con Haffmans, who open up about their own journeys, challenges, and share their words of wisdom surrounding retirement. You’ll hear a spectrum of views: some embrace the idea of retirement, while others challenge its very concept, redefining it as a time for pursuing passions, creativity, or simply maintaining purpose. Whether it’s rediscovering music, running small businesses, volunteering, or savoring newfound freedom from alarm clocks, our guests share what brings meaning to their lives beyond careers. The conversation reflects on the emotional and practical sides of transition, highlighting the importance of financial planning, a supportive advisor, and, most importantly, a personal sense of fulfillment. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... [00:00] Embracing retirement your way. [03:59] Favorite things about retirement. [07:17] What our guests loved the most about their working life. [09:15] The motive to continue to work as you get older. [11:56] Struggles in downshifting routine and redefining achievement. [13:56] Advice for planning and thriving in retirement. When Endings Become New Beginnings As Mr Rogers said, “Often when you think you’re at the end of something, you’re at the beginning of something else.” For many, retirement is seen as an “ending,” but for the guests on this episode, it’s just another beginning—one filled with self-discovery, purpose, and, most importantly, possibilities far beyond simply not working. Challenging the Traditional Narrative of Retirement The discussion opens with candid admissions: Vicki Goodman always expected retirement, but didn’t plan to do it so early; Darci Fersch isn’t a fan of the concept or even the word “retirement”; and Cookie Talmage asks, “Why do I need to retire?” These initial reactions highlight a universal truth: the transition away from a traditional career is deeply personal and often full of mixed emotions. Instead of following a prescribed blueprint, the guests reveal the diverse ways in which they approach this transition. Howard Lenoble anticipated retirement as a goal, but also questioned whether it was truly attainable or even desirable. Con Haffmans, still not fully retired, laughs about working harder now than ever before, caring for horses, but finds his joy in this hard work rather than escaping from it. Purpose Over Passivity Several guests stress that retirement isn’t about abandoning productivity. Vicki Goodman delights in the absence of an alarm clock and the freedom of mornings spent with coffee and Wordle, while Howard Lenoble revisits old passions like playing in bands, enriching his life, and even generating new income streams. Both emphasize a shift from obligation-driven schedules to self-defined, passion-fueled days. Darci Fersch reflects that control over your own time—the ability to choose where and how to spend it—is the most cherished part of post-career life. Even though she left her job at the top of her game, her move was driven by a desire to be more present with her family and more engaged in her personal interests. The Rewards of Staying Engaged Retirement, the guests agree, is more fulfilling when you pursue what you love. For Con Haffmans, that means life around horses, not financial investments. Even though his cowboy chapter was the worst financial choice, it was the happiest period of his life. Joy Lunt and Cookie Talmage see their ongoing work as a source of purpose, joy, and meaningful relationships; they aren’t ready to put away the satisfaction they get from helping others or mentoring younger colleagues. Rather than becoming “professional spectators,” as Con Haffmans warns, staying engaged—whether through hobbies, side businesses, volunteerism, or creative pursuits—enriches retirement far more than endless leisure. Not Just Financial Planning While financial readiness is crucial, most guests mention the need for a life plan. Cookie Talmage advises considering where and how you want to live, while Howard Lenoble recommends thinking about passions you want to pursue. Vicki Goodman discusses why those without outside interests may struggle most with the transition and the sudden abundance of unstructured time. Con Haffmans cautions against drifting into inactivity and just sitting down and watching other people live life, he firmly advocates for staying curious, involved, and committed to personal growth, regardless of age. The collective wisdom is simple but powerful: There’s no single path through retirement. Whether driven by passion, the desire for flexibility, or a yearning to give back, the most rewarding retirements are those lived intentionally and authentically. As Darci Fersch puts it, “Pick your own path and live the life that you want. Don’t wait.” Retirement isn’t just the end of work—it’s the beginning of living on your terms. Guests are not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People Mentioned Darci Fersch Vicki Goodman Con Haffmans Howard LeNoble Cookie Talmage Connect with Emerson Fersch Capital Investment Advisers On LinkedIn Subscribe to Upthinking Finance Audio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

November 28, 202549 min

An update on Energy Infrastructure, Ep #76

Upthinking Finance™ is now trademarked Is the energy transition really leaving oil and gas behind, or is the story more complicated? In this episode, Emerson sits down with Simon Lack, CFA, Managing Partner at SL Advisors and veteran of more than four decades in investment management, to unpack what is actually happening inside the midstream energy space. Simon draws on his experience as an investor, author, and board member of the CFA Society in Naples, Florida to walk through the history of MLPs, the painful reset after 2014, and why he believes natural gas and energy infrastructure are positioned to be long term winners in a world hungry for power, data, and reliability. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Why energy infrastructure still matters for retirement income (00:00) The shale revolution, overbuilding, stranded assets, and the downturn into 2015 (05:00) Three major headwinds, energy transition fears, overbuild, and the pandemic washout (11:30) Why Simon prefers natural gas over oil and why coal to gas was the real emissions win (15:00) LNG exports, global gas price gaps, and America’s edge in cheap energy (19:00) AI, data centers, and why 24/7 power demand points straight back to natural gas (23:00) Pipelines as toll roads, inflation linkage through regulated tariffs, and protecting purchasing power (34:00) The limits of solar and wind, the case for nuclear, and the reality of global energy demand (39:00) EVs, range anxiety, and why the United States is a tough market for full electrification (43:00) Simon’s philosophy for owning midstream as a long term income and value play (46:00) How an FX and hedge fund background led Simon into the midstream energy niche (47:30) From Rollercoaster To Reset: What Really Happened In Midstream Simon walks through the origin story of MLPs in the late 1980s, explaining how tax advantaged structures attracted high net worth investors who were comfortable with K-1s in exchange for deferred income. That calm income story changed with the shale revolution. Rapid investment, overbuilding, and the emergence of stranded or underutilized assets pushed the sector into an extended downturn starting around 2014. Kinder Morgan’s decision to cut distributions and then restructure its GP and MLP entities became a turning point. Many long time income investors faced both reduced cash flow and unexpected tax bills, leaving them frustrated and reluctant to come back. Over time, many MLPs converted to corporations, widened their investor base, and rethought how growth should be funded. Simon also highlights one underappreciated culprit in the 2020 crash, heavily leveraged closed end MLP funds that were forced to liquidate in March 2020, pushing prices far below what underlying cash flows justified. The upside, in his view, is that the weakest hands and structures have already been washed out of the system. Why Natural Gas, LNG, And AI Make Midstream So Interesting Looking forward, Simon makes a clear distinction between oil and natural gas. Oil, he notes, is mainly a transportation fuel and subject to policy swings. Gas is different. It is difficult and expensive to move, which means infrastructure assets that move it are often backed by long term, take-or-pay style contracts and relatively visible cash flows. He points out that the biggest real “energy transition” in the United States has already happened quietly. Shifting from coal to natural gas has reduced emissions meaningfully while keeping power reliable and affordable. At the same time, America’s gas is far cheaper than in Europe or Asia, which sets the stage for robust LNG exports for years to come. Layered on top of LNG is the AI and data center build out. Data centers need power nearly 100 percent of the time, not 20 to 35 percent of the time like wind and solar. In Simon’s view, that reliability requirement makes gas fired generation a natural partner for AI growth. For midstream companies that move and process gas, that means decades of potential volume growth tied to two powerful drivers, export demand and compute demand. He also reminds listeners that much of midstream EBITDA is explicitly linked to the Producer Price Index through FERC regulated tariffs. That gives many pipelines built in inflation protection and can help long term investors protect purchasing power when inflation runs structurally above the old 2 percent target. A Cleaner Balance Sheet And A Simpler Investment Case One of Simon’s key messages is that the sector today is not the same as it was a decade ago. Leverage has come down from four to five times debt to EBITDA to closer to three to three and a half times. Growth projects are more disciplined and are often funded internally rather than through constant equity issuance. Many companies now combine attractive distributions with share buybacks and a self financing capital model. He also emphasizes that midstream has finally broken its unhealthy day to day correlation with crude oil prices. Pipelines are paid on volumes and contracts, not commodity prices, and recent years have shown that performance can be strong even when oil prices are weak. For investors, Simon frames midstream as a way to get paid to wait. You own real assets that help keep the modern economy running, you collect a meaningful income stream, and you participate in long term growth driven by LNG and data centers. His own approach is deliberately straightforward, no leverage, no trading, no derivatives, simply owning what he believes are durable businesses for a long time. Connect With Simon Lack Simon Lack Connect with Emerson Fersch Capital Investment Advisers On LinkedIn Subscribe to Upthinking Finance Audio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

October 9, 202550 min

State of the World, Ep #75

Upthinking Finance™ is now trademarked In this episode of Upthinking Finance, we’re joined by returning guest Alex Krainer, a former hedge fund manager, market analyst, and outspoken commentator on global affairs, who shares candid perspectives on looming global tensions and his personal mission to help others understand the forces shaping our economic and political landscape. We discuss the fragility of current international alliances, the unraveling of the European Union, the global “darkness before the dawn”, from the U.S.-Russia relationship to the mechanics of debt-driven economies, and the importance of grassroots businesses in restoring prosperity. This episode isn’t just about finance; it’s about the real human impact of policy, war, and change. Tune in for a candid, global view that connects the dots between the news, the markets, and everyday life. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Embracing humility in trend following (03:38) Is the EU on life support? (08:19) Socio-political unrest in Europe with real-world examples (16:22) Europe vs. United States political dynamics (20:11) Trump's global vs. domestic stance (27:07) Central Bank's impact on stocks (35:50) How to revive American industry (42:32) Europe’s Unraveling: The End of an Era? One of the most provocative ideas explored is the potential collapse of the European Union. Alex characterizes the EU’s current condition as “the dying phase,” likening its centralized, unaccountable bureaucracy to a modern-day Soviet Union. The EU’s decision-making, he argues, has become increasingly detached from the will of European citizens; key policies are often dictated by unelected officials, who frequently prioritize the interests of corporate lobbyists over those of the public. He points to rising grassroots movements across the continent, sovereignist parties, mass marches, and political crises as evidence that Europeans are waking up to policies they view as anti-human and destructive to communities. From controversial migration policies in Croatia to aggressive agricultural reforms that harm local farmers, the sense of crisis is palpable. Craner is blunt: if institutional avenues for change are blocked, social upheaval and even violence become a real risk, drawing a direct historical parallel to the French Revolution. Despite this bleak outlook, he believes that this time, there is an alternative: stronger ties with Russia and China and potential participation in new economic and security alliances (like BRICS and the Belt and Road Initiative). This eastward shift could, in theory, offer Europe a lifeline beyond its current structures. U.S. - Russia Rapprochement There is a bright spot in Alex’s analysis. He sees the recent normalization of relations between the United States and Russia, under a renewed Trump administration, in his view, as one of the most hopeful developments in recent years. Given the nuclear capabilities of both countries, dialogue is essential, and Alex credits Trump with taking a decisive step back from the brink of large-scale conflict. While European prospects are fraught, Alex sees the United States’ federal structure, armed citizenry, and local systems of accountability as reasons to believe America might weather the coming turbulence with more resilience, possibly achieving a “soft landing” as opposed to the “depression” he fears for Europe. Debt, Markets, and Monetary Reform Alex argues that central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, are the primary force moving markets. As long as they continue quantitative easing and inject liquidity, assets will inflate. However, this “solution” risks runaway price inflation, eating away at real wealth even as markets hit record highs. The sheer scale of public and private debt makes eventual systemic reform unavoidable. No tweak to central bank policy will solve problems rooted in a credit market debt approaching $110 trillion in the U.S. alone. Alex foresees the need for a complete overhaul: a return to a banking system that supports local businesses, entrepreneurs, and the middle class, restoring genuine economic dynamism. While the road ahead is undeniably fraught, Alex believes that deep systemic change, both political and financial, is necessary. Whether that change comes peacefully or through upheaval remains to be seen. But as both Europe and the U.S. stand at historic crossroads, the seeds of renewal may yet be sown in these turbulent times. Alex Krainer is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People Mentioned Nick Murray Connect With Alex Krainer Alex Krainer on LinkedIn Connect with Emerson Fersch Capital Investment Advisers On LinkedIn Subscribe to Upthinking Finance Audio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK