Total Money Management

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165

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Aug 2026

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About the show

Signals and Noise with Steve, Tom, and Jacob Most people invest like everyone else and wonder why they get everyone else's results. Every week Steve, Tom, and Jacob cut through the financial noise: stocks, property, bonds, the global economy, all the big ideas made simple, with straight talk and a bit of humour. But first, find out what kind of investor you actually are. Our free 2 minute assessment shows you your investor type, the blind spots that quietly cost you money, and the strategy that fits how you are wired. → Take the free quiz: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Quiz

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60 recent

September 6, 202649 min

Episode 151: Cash Equals Options

FREE WEBINAR LINK: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Webinar-Anti-Fragile?cid=7c7b1153-bccd-4fad-aef2-c3812804fe4a This week Steve, Tom and Jacob open with three headlines that are more connected than they look: Iran calling for resolution under the weight of sanctions and inflation, the link between immigration and wage suppression in Australia, and house prices falling across every capital city except Darwin. The CoreLogic numbers for August tell the story. Sydney down 4.7% for the quarter, Melbourne down 3.9%, and commentators now calling for falls of 10%. The quarterly picture is negative almost everywhere, and the annual gains in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide are shrinking fast. From there the conversation turns to one of the most misunderstood positions in investing: holding cash. Most investors feel like they are losing by sitting in cash, but it is the opposite. Cash equals options. It is exactly how Warren Buffett was able to extract a 10% preferred dividend and warrants at $8 from Bank of America during the GFC. That deal was only available to the person with the money when nobody else had any. Buffett made $500 million on the dividends alone. We also walk through why buy and hold fails when you measure returns across a full market cycle, from low point to low point. The secular bull from 1982 to 2000 delivered 666%. The bear market that followed wiped out 59% of it. Once you add fees, inflation and tax, the full cycle return was close to zero. And then the part that changes how most people think about property versus stocks: rebalancing. You cannot rebalance a house. If it falls 20%, you sit and hope. With a diversified stock portfolio you can harvest winners and add to losers, and the maths show that rebalancing turns a flat market into a positive return. We walk through the example with two assets, one up 25% and one down 20%, and show how the rebalanced portfolio gains over 5% while the buy-and-hold portfolio gains nothing. This is why we think stocks are a better long-term investment. Property will have its day, but over time the ability to rebalance between uncorrelated assets leads to higher compound returns. New episode out every Monday. If you are finding these useful, a follow on Spotify or a subscribe on YouTube genuinely helps us grow. Signals and Noise Premium: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/PrbobKT9/checkout Free investor personality test: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types Follow on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0Sr60kq3V3q1mqiQPxiQ0l?si=d60ee47ccec54b81 More from TMM: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au Steve, Tom and Jacob Total Money Management This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642

August 30, 202647 min

Episode 150: Sanctions, Oil and Three Years On

150 episodes. Over three years of cutting through the noise together. To mark it, Steve, Tom and Jacob run through this week's biggest stories: new US sanctions on Iran and what they mean for oil, why Australia's fuel security is more fragile than the export numbers suggest, the real story behind US bond yields, and the US-Canada tariff standoff. They also dig into why private credit keeps making headlines and what a major builder collapse says about the sector. Then it's Watch Your Edge: why the stock market is such an expensive place to find out about yourself, how the Enneagram helps TMM coach clients through volatility, and why "trying harder" is often the worst response to a market that's moved against you. Thanks for three years of listening. Here's to the next 150. Join Premium here: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/PrbobKT9/checkout This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

August 23, 202648 min

Ep 149: The World Order Is Breaking, and Why Australian Property Isn't Coming Back

This week Steve, Jacob and Tom cover the shifting global order, why America is pulling back from being the world's policeman, and what that means for trade, tariffs and geopolitics. They also break down new bank lending data out of China, the risks building up in private credit and AI infrastructure financing, and why they remain cautious on the sector despite the hype. Closer to home, the guys dig into the Australian property market: why investor loans have dried up, what the end of negative gearing incentives on new builds really means, and why immigration is a lazy explanation for price growth. They finish with a reminder on why blanket statements about "average returns" in property and super are misleading, and why understanding the assumptions behind a forecast matters more than the number itself. Topics covered: The renegotiation of the global order and what it means for investors China's new bank loans and the state capitalism model Private credit, AI infrastructure debt and where the risk is building Australian property: investor loans, negative gearing and interest rates Why "average return" statistics can be misleading This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

August 16, 202641 min

Episode 148: The Anti-Fragile Investor Part 2

Part 2 of the Anti-Fragile Investor. Steve Moriarty and Jacob Senior move from theory to practice, walking through Taleb's six operational principles, the barbell strategy, and why volatility drag makes one bad year worse than most investors realise. With CAPE at 42.5, the goal isn't to predict the next crash, it's to build a portfolio that benefits when one arrives. Companion paper: Join Signals & Noise (free weekly newsletter): totalmoneymanagement.com.au Take the investor personality assessment: totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types Join the S&N Premium community: totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/PrbobKT9 This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

August 9, 202641 min

Episode 147: Oil Wars, Crypto Chaos and a $20 Billion Leverage Lesson

Oil is swinging wildly as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate and Trump pushes for a deal. A $116 million crypto hack just hit cold storage wallets across 5,200 addresses. And a 25 year old "genius" fund manager just got wiped out after leveraging 40x into AI stocks, a case study in exactly what Buffett warned about decades ago. This week Steve, Tom and Jacob break down what's actually moving markets, why leverage is the fastest way to turn a good thesis into a bad outcome, and the real maths behind compounding your money (spoiler: it's slower than you think). Want the charts, the numbers and the full breakdown behind everything we cover on the show? Join the free Signals & Noise newsletter at totalmoneymanagement.com.au and get it straight to your inbox every week. If this episode was useful, the biggest favour you can do us is leaving a quick review. It genuinely helps more people find the show. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

August 2, 202639 min

Episode 146: The Antifragile Investor (Part 1)

Markets can go sideways for ten or fifteen years. The CAPE ratio sits at 42. Global debt is stretched, and retail investors are piling into property, Bitcoin, and leveraged ETFs. So what happens next, and how do you position for it? In this special two-part episode, Steve Moriarty and Jacob Senior lay out an investment philosophy built to work through the entire market cycle, not just the good years. Drawing on Nassim Taleb's Incerto, the Kelly Criterion, and the risk-first thinking of investors like Ed Thorpe, Steve explains what separates fragile portfolios from robust ones, and robust ones from truly antifragile ones. You'll hear why the "time the market versus time in the market" debate is a false choice, the two scenarios Steve thinks are most likely from here (a GFC-style crash, or a Japan-style deleveraging that grinds asset prices lower over ten to twenty years), and how Taleb's three categories, coffee cups, weights, and everything in between, apply to the assets sitting in your portfolio right now. Part 2 will cover how to actually build the portfolio. If you want to think differently about your money, learn more about our approach at totalmoneymanagement.com.au, or take our free investor personality assessment at totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types to find out what kind of investor you are. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

July 26, 202645 min

Episode 145: The Property Game Is Over

Oil just jumped 20% in a fortnight, the US market is priced for perfection, and Australian property looks like it has finally rolled over. Red flags are everywhere. Steve, Tom and Jacob run through the week that was: the broken ceasefire and the race toward nuclear, a market sitting 200% above trend with Buffett quietly selling, the private credit boom regulators are now worried about, and why 25 years of property gains may be ending. Then the part most people skip: how to keep your head when markets turn, using System 1 and System 2 thinking, a written plan, and a longer time frame. Free newsletter: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au Full show notes: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Episode145 Follow and leave a review to help us grow. General information and education only, not financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642

July 19, 202644 min

Episide 144: Everybody's Knackered: Oil, Chips and Chokepoints

Steve, Tom and Jacob are back (with working microphones this time) to unpack a week where the cracks got harder to ignore. The Iran ceasefire has collapsed, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running at a third of normal, and shipping insurance costs have jumped sevenfold. The lads explain why "oil" isn't one thing, why China's demand drop saved us last time, and why a genuine supply shock may still be creeping up on us. Then it's over to Korea, where the stock market swung wildly all week and the CAPE ratio has bolted from 17 to 44 in twelve months. Compare that with Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey sitting near 10, and the case for emerging markets and commodities starts to write itself. Plus: the AI earnings problem nobody wants to talk about, semiconductors now making up 20% of the S&P 500, what Buffett's IBM exit really tells us, and why margin debt at $1.5 trillion should have your attention. The title says it all: every country holds a chokepoint, and everybody's knackered. Watch Your Edge: markets can go sideways for 15 years or more. The era of quick capital gains is over, and the game is shifting to income and yield. Subscribe to the free Signals & Noise newsletter: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/ Want to go deeper? Join Signals & Noise Premium for weekly analysis, Stock Thoughts, and our monthly live coaching call. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

July 15, 202616 min

Episode 143: A TMM Monologue

Episode 143: A TMM Monologue The ceasefire didn't hold, and neither did the calm. This week Steve flies solo (audio only) with a look at what the renewed Iran-US conflict means for oil, helium and fertiliser supply, and why the uncertainty premium is back in commodity markets. Also in this episode: Debt is piling up on both sides of the ledger: margin lending, leveraged ETFs and an options boom, all while the CAPE sits at 42, four and a half standard deviations above trend. Steve explains why that combination calls for caution, not prediction. Military spending is booming across the US, Europe, Japan and Australia, and governments competing for copper, iron ore and aluminium is one more reason we like commodities, and especially energy, over the long term. The OECD says the Australian economy is in trouble. Steve pushes back on the doom narrative, looks at the productivity debate, and unpacks what falling house prices might really signal. Plus, in Watch Your Edge: buy and hold wasn't always gospel. When strawberries are $15 a punnet, you skip the strawberries. The same logic applies to overpriced markets, and holding cash while you wait is not missing out. Subscribe to the free Signals & Noise newsletter: totalmoneymanagement.com.au Want the charts, data and full analysis behind this episode? Join Signals & Noise Premium: totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/UoT6mohZ/checkout Not sure what kind of investor you are? Take the TMM investor personality assessment: totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642

July 5, 202638 min

Episode 142: Mastering the Markets Special

Buffett said if you can't manage your emotions, you can't manage your money. This week we prove him right. Steve, Tom and Jacob break down Howard Marks' Mastering the Market Cycle: the three stages of every boom and bust, why the CAPE at 42 stacks the odds against US stocks, and why you never need to pick the bottom. 🧠 What type of investor are you? Take the 2-minute quiz 👉 https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Quiz 📰 Free newsletter 👉 https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/ 📊 Signals & Noise Premium 👉 https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/PrbobKT9/checkout General information only, not personal advice. Total Money Management, AFSL 568642.