Deterrence Matters

Hosted by The National Institute for Deterrence Studies

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198

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Oct 2026

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About the show

Deterrence Matters is where timely national security issues meet candid conversation and we come together to explore the deterrence challenges making headlines and shaping the future. From emerging threats and strategic competition to nuclear policy and the changing security environment, each episode offers fresh perspectives, informed debate, and sometimes a little humor along the way. Our goal is simple: build greater understanding of deterrence, develop the next generation of deterrence professionals, and strengthen the workforce entrusted with preserving peace, security, and stability.

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October 28, 202642 min

199 - News in Review October 2026: Drones, Nuclear Forces & the Future of Deterrence

In this episode of Deterrence Matters, Jim and Curtis examine several developments shaping today’s deterrence and national security environment. From the growing threat that inexpensive drones pose to military aircraft and infrastructure to political uncertainty in France and Russia’s continuing nuclear modernization, they explore what these developments could mean for strategic stability and defense planning. The discussion looks beyond weapons and force structure to consider the increasingly important role of perception, information, and narrative in deterrence. They also examine the case for hardened infrastructure and passive defenses, the challenge of protecting high-value assets against comparatively low-cost threats, and how emerging technologies are changing the security environment. www.thinkdeterrence.com

October 21, 202648 min

198 - The Nuclear Paradox: Can Deterrence and Disarmament Coexist?

In this episode of Deterrence Matters , host Jim Petrosky sits down with NIDS Senior Fellow Kirk Fansher to examine one of national security’s most enduring debates: the tension between nuclear deterrence and disarmament. Using the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists article, “The Nuclear Paradox: Why the World Wants Both Deterrence and Disarmament,” as a starting point, Jim and Kirk challenge assumptions about disarmament, minimum deterrence, and whether a world without nuclear weapons would necessarily be more stable. They explore the risks of both minimum and maximum deterrence, the strategic roles of ICBMs, submarines, and bombers, counterforce versus countervalue targeting, and how emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, drones, and precision strike could affect strategic stability. At its core, this conversation asks a critical question: How do we preserve peace without creating the very instability that makes war more likely? For anyone interested in nuclear strategy, arms control, great-power competition, and the future of deterrence, this is a conversation worth hearing.

October 14, 202645 min

197 - Is Putin’s Kaliningrad Threat Real or Merely Scary Messaging?

Russia’s nuclear threats are back in the spotlight—but are they a strategic bluff or a signal designed to shape NATO’s next move? Jim and Curtis unpack the Kremlin’s rhetoric around Kaliningrad, the Baltic Sea, and Lithuania’s shift in policy on nuclear-capable NATO access, exploring why this small enclave has become a volatile pressure point in European security. The hosts examine Kaliningrad’s strategic geography, Russia’s concerns about blockade and isolation, and the risks of escalation and miscalculation. Curtis considers how Putin’s “all weapons in our arsenal” language may function as brinkmanship and deterrence messaging, while Jim asks whether repeated nuclear warnings risk losing their credibility—and whether NATO’s response is strong enough to influence Russian behavior. Connecting the current standoff to Cold War lessons that highlight the importance of clear communication, credible deterrence, and understanding how each side perceives the threat. The conversation closes with a reminder that deterrence is ultimately about preventing war—not fighting one. www.thinkdeterrence.com

October 7, 202642 min

196 - Russia’s Dead Hand Is Back - And It Changes Deterrence

Russia is pouring steel, concrete, and cable into a buried command complex in the Urals - and the move may reveal exactly how deterrence is changing in real time. Jim and Curtis unpack the reported expansion of Facility 1335, the so-called Perimeter or "dead hand" system, and what it means for second-strike credibility, first-strike fears, and the future of nuclear command and control. The conversation starts with a major announcement: The NIDS View is now the Deterrence Matters podcast. Jim explains why the name change is meant to sharpen the mission and reach a wider audience. The hosts break down the reporting behind Russia's bunker expansion, including procurement evidence, satellite imagery, and the scale of the buildout - tens of thousands of tons of steel and cement, hundreds of kilometers of cable, new entrances, and extensive excavation. They also explore a modern twist: as Russia reportedly modernizes Perimeter to connect with space-based and mobile assets, the strategic equation gets even more complex. If one side believes it is invulnerable, how does the other side restore deterrence without escalating the risk? That question sits at the heart of this episode. www.thinkdeterrence.com

September 29, 202649 min

195 - News in Review September 2026

Nuclear testing, Russian strategic messaging, North Korea, China, and the race for technological advantage are all shaping an increasingly complex security environment. Jim and Curtis unpack what these developments mean for deterrence, national security, and future U.S. strategy. From the growing strategic importance of Russia-North Korea ties to the role of science, technology, and workforce development, this episode connects the month’s headlines to the larger challenges facing policymakers and national security leaders. www.thinkdeterrence.com

September 23, 202645 min

194 - Space Weapons, Deterrence and Messaging

Chris Stone joins The NIDS View to unpack the U.S. announcement on space control weapons and what it portends for the future of national security. From lasers and high-powered microwaves to orbital threats and competing Chinese and Russian capabilities, the conversation examines what it takes to protect vital space assets in an increasingly contested environment. The discussion also addresses fundamental deterrence questions in the space domain, such as how to convince an adversary they cannot deny American space access. With space deeply connected to military operations, communications, and the broader economy, the stakes extend far beyond orbit. www.thinkdeterrence.com

September 16, 202643 min

193 - Nuclear Deterrence Isn't Broken - It's Misunderstood and Misapplied

Nuclear deterrence is not failing in Ukraine and Iran - it is being misread. Retired Colonel Kirk Fansher breaks down why some of the loudest anti-nuclear arguments confuse deterrence with total war, and why that distinction changes everything. The conversation starts with a provocative opinion piece claiming the wars in Ukraine and Iran expose the "flaws" in nuclear deterrence. Curtis and Kirk push back hard, showing how Russia's arsenal has done exactly what deterrence is supposed to do: keep NATO out of the trenches and shape escalation without triggering a nuclear exchange. They also unpack why attacks on strategic bombers, missile launches aimed at distant bases, and repeated regional strikes do not automatically prove nuclear weapons are useless. www.thinkdeterrence.com

September 9, 202649 min

192 - News in Review August 2026: Missiles, Manning, Megawatts, and the Middle East

In this News in Review episode for July, Curtis and Jim examine a series of significant developments shaping the global security environment, from Russia's latest ICBM test launch to evolving geopolitical alliances in the Middle East and the growing strategic importance of energy infrastructure. The discussion explores how Russia and the United States continue to signal nuclear capabilities in an increasingly complex deterrence landscape, while also highlighting encouraging trends in U.S. military recruitment and the challenges of developing the workforce needed to sustain national defense. The conversation then shifts to China's expanding influence in the Middle East, the emergence of the proposed "Mecca Alliance," and the broader implications for regional stability and international partnerships. Our hosts take a closer look at the intersection of technology, energy, and security, examining how the rapid growth of AI-driven data centers is increasing electricity demand and creating new strategic considerations for policymakers. Throughout the discussion, they emphasize the importance of credible deterrence, alliance cohesion, and strategic stability in a world marked by intensifying competition among major powers. Whether discussing nuclear modernization, military readiness, shifting regional alignments, or the future of critical infrastructure, this episode offers timely insights into the challenges and opportunities shaping deterrence in the 21st century. https://thedefencenews.com/anduril-starts-building-cca-prototypes-in-ohio/ https://www.kyivpost.com/post/83349 https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-906537 www.thinkdeterrence.com

September 2, 202640 min

191 - The Summer of Symposiums: Deterrence Thinkers Unite

In this episode of The NIDS View, Curtis and special guest Col (Ret) Kirk Fansher discuss key insights from summer's two biggest deterrence symposiums and explore the challenges shaping today's strategic environment. From the complexities of submarine manufacturing and the limitations of the defense industrial base to the evolving role of nuclear deterrence, they examine the issues influencing U.S. national security policy. The conversation highlights the importance of deterrence by denial, innovation in military technology, acquisition reform, and maintaining a resilient nuclear triad. Curtis and Kirk also reflect on Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby's recent comments on nuclear strategy, the future of deterrence, and the critical role NATO and allied cooperation play in ensuring global stability. Whether you're interested in defense policy, modernization, or the future of strategic deterrence, this episode provides timely reflection on the challenges and opportunities facing the United States and its allies. www.thinkdeterrence.com

August 26, 202644 min

190 - Cold War Attitudes Mimic Modern NATO Perspective

What can today's NATO leaders learn from the Cold War? In this episode of The NIDS View, Curtis and Jim compare the enduring issues of deterrence, alliance cohesion, and military credibility that helped preserve peace in 1988 and 2026. The discussion explores how the USA's attitudes toward NATO's defense posture have evolved- and not evolved--to include the issues of burden sharing, which remain a central challenge for the Alliance. The conversation compares Cold War-era defense spending, force readiness, and public support for NATO with today's security environment, offering important insights into the future of European defense. As regional tensions grow and questions arise about NATO's credibility, this episode highlights that US commitments to the alliance have been questioned since its inception and the risks of strategic complacency. Frontline: The Defense of Europe (1988) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLjnT01ECO8

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