Episodes
157
Latest episode
Jun 2026
Language
EN-GB
The latest on the Scottish and UK economy from a leading independent economic research institute based in the University of Strathclyde.
Participants Dr Hannah Randolph (Economist, FAI) Prof Mairi Spowage (Director, FAI) Jack Evans (Senior Policy Advisor, JRF) Time stamps (0:22) Who wants to work across Scotland (3:24) Child poverty and supporting parents into work (8:09) Why focus on "people who want to work"? (13:29) How we talk about labour market status (19:26) Surveys and other sources of labour market information (26:55) What's next?
00:00:08 – 00:00:35 Introduction to podcast, guests, and research topic (community supervision & re-offending). 00:00:35 – 00:01:24 Overview of pressures on the criminal justice system: court backlogs and causes. 00:01:24 – 00:02:20 Prison overcrowding explained and current capacity issues. 00:02:20 – 00:03:14 Early release schemes and their limited long-term impact on prison population. 00:03:14 – 00:04:00 Future outlook and policy pressure (Institute for Government concerns). 00:03:36 – 00:04:27 New sentencing bill: shift toward community supervision and reduced prison time. 00:04:27 – 00:05:22 Lack of evidence on effectiveness of community supervision and motivation for study. 00:05:22 – 00:06:28 Data challenges and introduction to MoJ “Data First” initiative and linked datasets. 00:06:28 – 00:07:02 Scale and capability of the linked offender dataset. 00:07:02 – 00:08:25 Why older data is used and need for causal evidence (bias in simple comparisons). 00:08:25 – 00:10:20 Explanation of natural experiments vs randomized experiments. 00:10:20 – 00:11:13 Introduction to the 2015 Offender Rehabilitation Act (ORA). 00:11:13 – 00:13:02 Natural experiment setup: cutoff date creates comparable supervised vs unsupervised groups. 00:13:02 – 00:14:21 Method: comparing re-offending outcomes across groups using linked data. 00:14:21 – 00:15:46 What community supervision involves (probation, restrictions, rehabilitation focus). 00:16:02 – 00:17:09 Main findings: supervision reduces re-offending (short-term impact). 00:17:09 – 00:17:30 Long-term effects: persistent reduction in re-offending even after supervision ends. 00:17:30 – 00:18:44 Who benefits most: stronger effects for first-time prisoners. 00:18:44 – 00:19:27 Why effects fade over time and importance of supervision duration. 00:19:27 – 00:21:00 Effects for repeat/prolific offenders and role of recall to prison (incapacitation effect). 00:21:00 – 00:22:18 Behavioural mechanisms and role of recall threat. 00:22:18 – 00:23:34 Context: high baseline re-offending rates; supervision helps but isn’t a silver bullet. 00:23:34 – 00:25:37 Policy implications: supervision vs prison and impact on overcrowding. 00:25:37 – 00:26:05 Long-term benefits via preventing repeat offending among first-timers. 00:26:05 – 00:27:37 Where to find research outputs (ADR UK, blog, dashboard).
In the final episode of our election analysis series, Mairi Spowage and João Sousa of the Fraser of Allander Institute and Ed Poole and Guto Ifan of the Wales Governance Centre come together to discuss what the results of the elections in Wales and Scotland mean for governing arrangements, and what the next steps are in the Senedd and Scottish Parliament sessions. **This work is supported by the Nuffield Foundation. The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds and undertakes rigorous research, encourages innovation and supports the use of sound evidence to inform social and economic policy, and improve people’s lives. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. Find out more at: nuffieldfoundation.org. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.**
**Please note that this recording is in Welsh - check out our other podcast episodes and our websites for analysis in English.** This is a recording of the event held by the Wales Governance Centre in Bangor on 21 April, discussing the main talking points in the Senedd election. **This work is supported by the Nuffield Foundation. The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds and undertakes rigorous research, encourages innovation and supports the use of sound evidence to inform social and economic policy, and improve people’s lives. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. Find out more at: nuffieldfoundation.org. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.**
Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (1:14) Income tax proposals (6:21) Land transaction tax (9:12) Spending proposals on childcare (12:36) Costings of proposals (18:00) Crown Estate devolution (21:43) Social security devolution
Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (1:18) Rows about costings publications in Wales (6:06) Costings publications in Scotland (9:56) The effect of List PR on the manifesto contents (14:30) Current vs capital block grants (16:52) What we can expect in the coming week
Timestamps: (0:06) Introductions (1:57) Health's place in the Welsh Government's budget (5:48) Performance of the Welsh NHS (10:51) Productivity challenges (15:31) The challenges of moving to a prevention model
Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (0:46) The level of detail of the manifestos (9:47) Costings in the manifestos (16:44) The SNP's food price cap (18:39) Reform's plan to bring in half a million people into the labour market
Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (1:20) Reflections from the event in Bangor (2:49) Reflections from the event in Edinburgh (5:31) Mutual investment model and proposals in Wales (8:09) Fiscal framework (13:27) Appetite for further devolution of income tax in Wales (17:19) Council tax revaluation
Timestamps: (0:05) Introductions (1:55) Tuition fees and the higher education funding landscape in Scotland (11:59) The future sustainability of Scotland's universities (14:29) Further education funding in Scotland
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