No Tax Credit, No Problem. The New Math for Home Solar.
With the 30% residential solar tax credit gone, the effective cost of going solar has jumped dramatically and residential installations are already down roughly 20–25%. For installers that historically relied on cash sales, the drop can be even worse. But before we start writing solar’s obituary, there are a few important plot twists. Electricity rates are still climbing. Blackouts aren’t exactly going out of style. Battery prices continue to improve. And, most importantly, leases, PPAs and prepaid financing can still give homeowners access to the economics of the 30% commercial tax credit. In other words, financing has gone from being something that helps sell solar to something that may determine whether solar gets sold at all. The tail is officially wagging the dog. This week on The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon welcomes back solar finance expert Dan Javen, who correctly predicted many of the financing challenges now hitting the residential market. Episode Highlights: • Why residential solar is down 20–25% in 2026 • How leases, PPAs and prepaid leases can preserve the 30% tax-credit advantage • Which solar and battery companies may be best positioned to survive • Why standalone battery installations and Virtual Power Plants could become one of the industry's biggest opportunities •Why Dan believes the real solar-and-storage recovery may begin around 2028
