
MCD Deep Dive: The Cash Flow Story Disguised as Hamburgers
This morning, a small kitchen-and-bath supplier nobody's ever heard of went up 200% before lunch. By the afternoon, it was already sliding back down. Meanwhile, one of the most boring yet beloved businesses in America just got cheaper than it's been in five years. In today’s market, it's easy to miss which one is the actual opportunity. This month, Greg starts with FGI Industries ($FGI), a $9 million company that briefly saw a day's worth of trading change hands worth $1.5 billion. He walks through how a thin float and a wave of momentum trading turned an unremarkable quarter into a day trader's dream. He also gets into why chasing the inevitable crash back down, especially by shorting it, can be far riskier than it looks. It's a story with zero connection to cash flow. From there, he makes the case that all assets and investments are built on cash flow, which sets the stage for a deep dive on the McDonald’s ($MCD) story. It's not a hamburger story. It's a royalty and rent story, with 95% of restaurants franchised, over 60% of revenue recurring, and returns on invested capital that have sat in the high teens since 2009. Greg breaks down the 10-year dividend model, why the stock is about as cheap as it's been in half a decade, and what would actually have to go wrong for the thesis to break. Two companies, two completely different definitions of opportunity. One's a lottery ticket. The other's a cash flow machine that's been quietly compounding for decades. TOPICS COVERED [00:41] Introduction: flash money vs. slow and steady [03:31] FGI Industries ($FGI): how a small-cap stock spiked 200% in a morning [09:36] The hidden danger of shorting a low-float speculative stock [13:03] Dividend yields are falling — is the strategy still viable? [17:16] Why every asset ultimately depends on cash flow [20:32] Introducing McDonald's ($MCD): not the story you think it is [21:53] Franchise economics: royalties, rent, and McDonald's scale advantage [30:39] Return on invested capital and 20 years of consistent dividend growth [32:21] The 10-year dividend model: mapping out a potential double [34:45] What could go wrong: GLP-1 drugs, shifting habits, rising input costs [41:04] Valuation today and where we would start buying [43:20] Final takeaway: discipline beats the illusion of easy money ________ 📖 Free Book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth —a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here . 📰 Monthly Newsletter: Observations on the Market 📧 Questions or comments: dcm.team@growmydollar.com Send us Fan Mail ________ Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________ Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.














