The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest

Hosted by NatWest Corporates and Institutions

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Episodes

135

Latest episode

Jun 2026

Language

EN-GB

About the show

Keep up to date with the latest in FX markets with The Currency Exchange podcast. Each week, the NatWest Markets team of FX strategists – Eimear Daly, Brian Daingerfield, and Paul Robson – help investment professionals and corporate treasurers get to grips with the biggest themes & events moving global currency markets. Check back here regularly for new episodes and subscribe to The Currency Exchange wherever you get your podcasts so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available.

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60 recent

June 12, 202630 min

From dollar to yen: answering policy questions from around the world

In this week’s episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Dangerfield is joined by Paul Robson, to discuss the major themes driving foreign exchange markets. The conversation covers the ECB’s latest decision, upcoming meetings from the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, and the implications for the euro, pound, dollar and yen. Key topics: * FX markets remain remarkably calm despite an intense period of central bank and geopolitical risk.* The ECB remains cautious and highly dependent on developments in energy markets.* The Bank of England is unlikely to act next week but remains under pressure from persistent inflation concerns.* The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh could mark an important shift in communication strategy.* Dollar strength has been supported by better US data, but expectations may now be running ahead of reality.* The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates, but markets remain focused on whether policymakers are willing to defend the yen more aggressively. You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. This episode was recorded on 11 June 2026. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

May 29, 202613 min

Low conviction and high uncertainty: inside FX markets now

This week on Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield step back from the day-to-day market headlines to focus on what global FX clients are thinking about the US dollar, geopolitical risk and the broader macro outlook.Against a backdrop of rapidly shifting developments in the Middle East, the discussion explores why conviction across FX markets remains unusually low, how investors are positioning across G10 currencies, and what themes are emerging in China and broader emerging markets.Key themes discussedFX markets: Low conviction and headline-driven tradingBrian Dangerfield explains why fast-moving geopolitical developments are preventing investors from taking strong directional positions in FX, despite large moves in rates and commodities markets.Dollar outlook: Fed on hold versus global tighteningHow markets increasingly expect the Fed to remain sidelined while other central banks continue tightening policy, potentially weighing on the dollar over time.G10 FX: Sterling, yen and commodity currenciesSterling continues to outperform expectations, why intervention risk is dominating yen positioning, and why investors still favour the Australian dollar despite recent volatility.China and EM: The rise of high-value manufacturingChina’s economic transition toward AI and advanced manufacturing is reshaping profit growth, inflation dynamics and currency policy expectations. You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.This episode was recorded on 28 May 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

May 22, 202613 min

Xi, Putin and pressures on Asia FX

This week on The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Aditya Sharma explore the geopolitical and macroeconomic developments shaping global FX markets. The discussion focuses on Chinese diplomacy following President Xi Jinping’s meetings with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the implications for China-US relations, and the broader impact of energy market disruptions on Asian currencies.The episode also examines the prospect of Chinese stimulus, and the growing pressure across emerging Asian FX markets including the Indonesian rupiah, Korean won and Indian rupee. This episode was recorded on 21 May 2026. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

May 15, 202618 min

UK political uncertainty and geopolitical developments

In this episode, Eimear Daly, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield discuss the political and macroeconomic themes currently shaping FX markets, including:* Rising UK political uncertainty and implications for sterling* Why markets may be underestimating UK fiscal risks* Japan’s FX intervention strategy and US reaction* Structural challenges facing the Japanese yen* Key takeaways from the Trump–Xi summit in Beijing* The geopolitical implications for currencies and global marketsThis episode was recorded on 14 May 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

May 8, 202615 min

Sterling's resilience and China’s tactical game

This week Eimear Daly and Paul Robson explore the reasons behind sterling’s strength against uncertainty both politically in the UK and geopolitically in the Middle East. They also discuss Chinese-US relations ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, and the value of the yuan ahead of Donald Trump’s visit there. Key takeaways:- UK political risk may matter more to sterling later in 2026 than immediately.- The Trump–Xi summit could become a major catalyst for USD direction, and Asian currencies.- Markets are increasingly focused on capital flows, reserve diversification and long-term exposure to US assets. You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. This episode was recorded on 7 May 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

May 1, 202627 min

On hold, and holding off

This week Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson explore the FX implications of central bank rate holds in the US, the euro area and the UK. They also discuss Japan, where it appears as though policymaker intervention is boosting the value of the yen as oil prices hit new highs. But can such a move work in the long run? This episode was recorded on 30 April 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

April 24, 202626 min

A fall in FX market volatility, but what next?

This week Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson explore further market developments amid geopolitical tensions around Iran, including central bank policies and wider macroeconomic developments.Key topics covered:1. Impact of Iran-US tensions on FX markets2. Central bank reaction functions and monetary policy outlooks3. US dollar and yen outlook, alongside market expectations for Fed and Bank of Japan actionsThis episode was recorded on 23 April 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

April 17, 202624 min

Ceasefires, central banks, and currency crosswinds

FX markets are caught between relief and reality. This week on The Currency Exchange, Paul Robson, Brian Daingerfield, and Eimear Daly unpack how a fragile Middle East ceasefire is reshaping the dollar narrative – unwinding war-driven gains, but leaving behind stubbornly higher energy prices and hawkish rate expectations. With positioning reset and the dollar stuck mid-range, the team debates what parts of the pre-war playbook – and what’s changed for good.In Europe, attention turns to capital flows and whether structural pressures on the dollar could finally push EUR/USD higher. Meanwhile, in the UK, a sharp repricing of Bank of England expectations is already reversing as policymakers signal patience in the face of an energy shock.Looking ahead, all eyes are on Fed nominee Warsh: will he accelerate the pivot to rate cuts, or reinforce the market’s wait-and-see stance?Finally, we take a closer look at how a political shake-up in Hungary sparked a rally in the forint, and raises the prospect of deeper EU integration.This episode was recorded on 16 April 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

March 27, 202619 min

Calmed by uncertainty

This week, Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss sources of heightened market uncertainty and puzzle over the calm that has beset currency volatility.Key topics covered:1. Market reactions to the Middle East conflict2. The US dollar and market positioning3. Sterling’s surprising resilience4. The Yen and fiscal considerations5. Lasting themes for currency markets This episode was recorded on 26 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

March 20, 202620 min

More energy market shocks, and the knock-on for FX

This week, Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist) is joined by Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to talk about the ongoing situation in the Middle East. They explore how threats to energy infrastructure might affect central bank policies, even if interest rates are still on hold in major economies. They also delve into what the crisis means for emerging markets. This episode was recorded on 19 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html