The Annex Wealth Management SWOT Podcast

Hosted by Annex Wealth Management

Business Investing EducationInterviews guests

RSS feed

Episodes

230

Latest episode

Oct 2026

Language

About the show

Join the members of the Annex Wealth Management Investment Team as they discuss the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats in the markets and economy.

Listen to episodes

60 recent

October 26, 2026Episode 23110 min

Monday, October 26th. The Labor Market Refuses to Crack

Featuring Assistant Research Analyst, Jacob Johnson.

October 19, 2026Episode 2306 min

Monday, October 19th. Inflation Not Going On Vacation.

Featuring Annex Investment Team's Nick Hillstrom. Strengths Energy sector leadership: Energy has been the best-performing sector year-to-date, supported by the sharp rise in oil prices and strong results from energy companies. Solid bank earnings overall: Major banks largely reported strong results. Goldman Sachs delivered a historic beat (especially in equities trading), and Morgan Stanley also showed strength in equities trading. Bond maturity mechanics: Bonds generally mature at par value. Holding to maturity allows investors to receive full principal back while reinvesting coupons (and eventually principal) at today’s higher yields. Weaknesses Elevated oil prices and inflation: Oil has climbed back to ~$100/barrel (Brent around $106), up roughly 70% year-over-year. This is pushing headline CPI higher (August CPI at 3.4%; September also hotter than expected). Negative bond price action: The 10-year Treasury yield hit ~5.35% (highest in over two decades, since April 2022) before easing toward ~5.1%. Rising yields have driven bond prices lower and increased volatility. Mixed bank stock reactions and fixed-income trading: Despite mostly strong earnings, many bank stocks fell over the week. JPMorgan reported a slight miss (slower fixed-income trading) — its first in nearly three years. Fixed-income trading weakness was noted across banks, consistent with the rate environment. Fed rate hike: The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 in response to the hotter inflation data. Opportunities Higher reinvestment rates in fixed income: The higher-yield environment allows coupon payments and maturing principal to be reinvested at more attractive rates than earlier in the year. Differentiated bank outcomes: Banks are not a single trade. Institutions with stronger deposit franchises can benefit from wider spreads (paying depositors less relative to the higher yields they earn on assets). Capital markets and wealth management exposure also create differentiation. Energy sector momentum: Continued strength in energy provides a bright spot amid broader market crosscurrents. Portfolio clarity: Understanding specific holdings (sector exposure, duration, bank business mix, etc.) helps investors navigate the current rate and inflation backdrop more effectively. Threats Oil-driven spillover effects: Higher oil prices can pressure airlines, freight, manufacturing, hotels, and retail costs — potentially weighing on holiday travel and the holiday shopping season. Persistent inflation and further rate pressure: Hotter CPI readings keep the door open for additional Fed tightening, which can weigh on bond prices and rate-sensitive parts of the economy. Rate sensitivity in banking: Higher rates can reduce loan demand and hurt banks more exposed to lending, while fixed-income trading remains pressured. Bond market volatility: Elevated and volatile Treasury yields continue to create price swings in fixed-income portfolios.

October 12, 2026Episode 2298 min

Monday, October 12th. The Meaningful Differences with Treasury Yields

The episode reviews current market and economic conditions through the SWOT lens, focusing on recent S&P 500 records, the job market, earnings season, yields, and the Fed outlook. Strengths The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,819 on Tuesday, October 6 (with intraday peaks above 7,844), reflecting genuine profit growth concentrated in technology, communication services, and energy. ⁠ Early Q3 earnings reports have been solid. PepsiCo shares rose 4% after beating on organic revenue, net revenue, and EPS, with few broad signals of weakness heading into the full season. Layoffs remain low: Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 (beating forecasts of 200,000) for the week ending October 3. Claims have stayed under 200,000 for four straight weeks; the four-week average of 198,000 is the lowest since October 2022. This supports the income base for consumer spending and GDP. Weaknesses Hiring has stalled even as layoffs stay low. September added only about 29,000 jobs (versus expectations near 90,000). Unemployment rose to 4.2%, July/August were revised down by a combined ~60,000, and wage growth slowed to roughly 3% year-over-year. This points to a slowing economy, though not a recession on its own. Market leadership is highly concentrated in a few mega-cap tech names. The cap-weighted S&P 500 has diverged sharply from the equal-weight version over the past six months. The Russell 2000 is down about 4.35% in the last month. Narrow leadership makes the index more sensitive to news on a handful of companies (e.g., one private AI firm’s revenue report recently moved the Nasdaq more than 1%). Opportunities Q3 earnings season is underway, starting with major banks this week (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley on Wednesday). Results will show how businesses and consumers are managing higher borrowing costs. Midterm elections are set for November 3. Historically, stocks have often performed well into year-end during midterm periods (though past trends are not guarantees). Treasury yields have risen to multi-decade highs for income investors: the 10-year is in the 5.2–5.3% range (highest in nearly 25 years) and the 30-year is above 5.6%. Nuveen noted that recent credit-spread widening looks more like rate volatility than genuine credit deterioration. High yields also raise the bar for equities; if stocks do not deliver a sufficient premium over bonds, fixed income can offer better risk-adjusted returns. Threats Elevated yields increase borrowing costs for companies, consumers, and the government, which can constrain capital expenditures and expansion (watch for signs of this in Q3 earnings and capital allocation). With the S&P 500 near records and leadership narrow, there is less cushion if yields keep rising. The Fed remains hawkish. Minutes indicated most participants viewed another rate hike as likely appropriate by year-end. Officials also flagged AI-driven demand and oil prices above $100/barrel as inflation risks. September CPI (due Wednesday) could be decisive for an October hike. Mortgage rates have climbed above 7%. Bottom line from the discussion: Profit growth and resilient consumer income support the current highs, but the job market is bifurcated, leadership is concentrated, and high yields plus potential further Fed tightening create valuation and growth headwinds. Earnings reports and inflation data this week will be key watchpoints.

October 5, 2026Episode 22810 min

Monday, October 5th. Have You Seen Mortgage Rates?

Annex Wealth Management SWOT podcast for Monday, October 6, with chief economic strategist Brian Jacobson on fourth-quarter strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Strengths: a soft payroll print that the Fed is treating as fine. Nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000, which would have looked weak in past cycles, but it drew little reaction. The Fed is between meetings and has already said the cumulative improvement in the labor market is enough; its focus is inflation. The old rule of thumb that the economy needed roughly 100,000–125,000 jobs a month to hold unemployment steady is outdated. With slower immigration and an aging workforce, the breakeven pace is closer to zero. Unemployment edged from 4.1% to 4.2% and is still bouncing in a narrow range—nothing the committee treated as a break in the story. Weaknesses: higher mortgage rates and stuck housing. Yields have moved up for reasons other than inflation fears. Five- to thirty-year breakeven inflation rates have been fairly stable. The drivers Jacobson cites are heavy issuance (a federal deficit around 6% of GDP, plus corporate bonds to fund data centers), markets repricing a Federal Reserve that is signaling further hikes, and decent growth that itself pulls rates up. Borrowers—homebuyers, car loans, credit cards—are competing with that supply of debt, so housing affordability is worse. People who took higher rates a few years ago expecting to refinance are still waiting. The 3% “golden handcuffs” still lock many owners in place, but job changes, another child, divorce, downsizing, or health issues are forcing some moves anyway, and fewer households still have those 3% loans. Opportunities: yields that make fixed income useful again. The same higher rates that hurt borrowers pay savers. Jacobson frames it as a transfer from net debtors to investors. For many clients, current yields are high enough to raise the fixed-income allocation. Yields can still rise, but holding an individual bond to maturity maps out the coupon and the return of face value, assuming no default. Mutual funds diversify with less capital and a hired manager; building a portfolio of individual bonds usually takes a larger amount. Practical places to buy: bank CDs (bond-like), TreasuryDirect, or the fixed-income inventory inside a brokerage account. Bonds, he repeats, are not boring anymore. Threats: stress in French government bonds. French yields rose after a budget whose growth assumptions did not look credible. Debt-to-GDP is roughly in line with the United States, maybe a bit lower, but France does not issue its own currency. It is inside the eurozone, has long broken the bloc’s deficit and debt rules, and its plan to get the deficit back toward the required path was not taken as credible. Spending cuts are meeting student protests and riots, and room to raise taxes is limited. The France–Germany yield spread has widened to levels not seen in a long time. Markets are starting to price a bit of “Frexit” risk. Jacobson does not put it on the scale of the old Greek crisis, but he flags it as something to watch.

September 28, 2026Episode 2277 min

Monday, September 28th. The Mega-IPO Wave for AI.

Associate research analyst Mark Schaefer joined the episode to walk through strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Strengths Corporate earnings are very strong. About 86% of S&P 500 companies beat Q2 estimates — the highest share since Q2 2021 — and analysts expect roughly 30% full-year 2026 earnings growth (FactSet). Higher profits support stock prices and mechanically pull P/E multiples down because earnings sit in the denominator. The job market is also holding up, with unemployment forecasts steady around 4.1%. That stability supports consumer confidence and spending, which remains a core driver of the economy. Weaknesses Valuations remain elevated. The S&P 500 trailing twelve-month P/E is about 25.6, down from earlier highs near 28.9 but still well above the five-year average of ~19. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, its highest level since July 2007, even after the Fed’s latest hike. Stocks therefore need stronger earnings just to justify current prices. Market breadth is poor. AI-related names (AMD is cited as an example) have hit all-time highs, while banks such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley and utilities have been sluggish or near multi-month/yearly lows. Headline index strength therefore overstates how broadly the market is participating. If the leaders fade, there is limited ballast underneath. Opportunities A U.S.–China trade deal (now delayed until January) would ease tariff costs for businesses and consumers. Polymarket odds were cited at 93% that a deal eventually happens. That would be particularly constructive for trade-exposed areas such as semiconductors and manufacturing.A large AI IPO wave is another theme. SpaceX listed in June; Anthropic and OpenAI are expected next. Listings would give investors more direct AI exposure and generate underwriting fees that have already helped banks such as Morgan Stanley post strong revenue. Threats Another Fed hike is possible. The next meeting is October 28, and some discussion points to a further 25 basis points. Higher rates raise costs for businesses and households and increase the discount rate applied to future earnings, which makes already-high valuations harder to sustain. New Fed Chair Warsh was described as keeping his views close. The consistent recommendation was a diversified portfolio built to withstand short-term volatility so that long-term outcomes remain favorable.

September 21, 2026Episode 22612 min

Monday, September 21st. Who's the Real Winner This Year?

Featuring Chief Investment Officer, Derek Felske.

September 14, 2026Episode 2254 min

Monday, September 14th. Energy Is the Quiet Winner

Featuring Annex Wealth Management Research Analyst, Nick Hillstrom.

September 7, 2026Episode 2249 min

Monday, September 7th. The Yield Surge and the Jobs Surprise.

Featuring Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

August 31, 2026Episode 2236 min

Monday, August 31st. Strength Out of the Software Sector.

Featuring Annex Research Analyst, Nick Hillstrom.

August 24, 2026Episode 2224 min

Monday, August 24th. The Lesson in Diversification.

Featuring Chief Investment Officer, Derek Felske.

Is this your show?

Claim this listing to keep it up to date, reach guests who want to pitch you, and manage bookings with Guestify.

Claim this listing

More Business podcasts

The Bottom Line

Alexander Spencer

BusinessInterviews guests