Supply Chain Secrets

Hosted by NYSHEX

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Episodes

124

Latest episode

Jun 2026

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EN-US

About the show

The Supply Chain Secrets Podcast cuts through the noise to bring you real, unfiltered insights from the front lines of global logistics. Whether you’re a shipper, NVO, carrier, or just someone who needs to stay ahead of market shifts, we deliver analysis and hard-hitting conversations that actually matter. Visit nyshex.com/podcast to register to attend live!

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60 recent

June 16, 202624 min

Rate Rally, Hormuz Memorandum, and an 88% Chance of El Niño

Rates on Asia-North Europe and Asia-US West Coast are surging, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been signed, and El Niño is now official with an 88% chance of being historically severe. This week Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all three.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates up $1,000 in a month with futures pointing higher still, and Asia-USWC breaking above $4,000 per 40-foot with a volatility spike driving record hedging activity using the NYFI indexWhy the rate rally is being driven by supply and demand fundamentals, not Hormuz fuel surcharges, and what CMA-CGM's $4,000 peak season surcharge announcement signals about carrier confidenceThe US-Iran memorandum of understanding: what it says, what it does not say, and why AIS data showed no change in vessel movement through the strait in the first 48 hoursPiracy resurgence in the Gulf of Aden and three attacks in two days including one on a Maersk feeder vesselEl Niño confirmed and now forecast as potentially the strongest on record: what Panama Canal shippers need to plan for nowSubscribe to weekly podcast CliffsNotes sent directly to your inbox.

June 8, 202631 min

Supply, Demand, and Three Crises: What's Actually Moving Rates Right Now

Spot rates on Asia-Europe and Transpacific are climbing fast. The easy explanation is Hormuz. The right explanation is supply and demand, and the data Lars Jensen pulled this week makes the case clearly.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates have now exceeded the Chinese New Year peak and are closing in on summer 2025 levels, with futures pointing higher. Asia-USWC and USEC continue their sustained upward trendWhy the rate surge is driven by demand outpacing capacity, not fuel surcharges: Asia-Europe demand up 12%, Transpacific up 11% in April, with capacity failing to keep pace on both tradesWhy the 22% capacity injection planned for Asia-Med in July is a Hormuz spillover effect, not a true demand signal, and what it means for peak seasonHormuz update: Iran-Israel escalation, EU sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Houthi re-entry into the conflict, and what closing Bab el-Mandeb would mean for Persian Gulf bypass routesPanama Canal draft restrictions effective July 3rd, what El Niño means for Lake Gatun water levels, and why Lars sees the early action as a positive signWhy Panamanian flag vessel registrations are dropping 1% per month and what the US-China geopolitical battle has to do with itDownload this week's NYFI ReadLog in to NYSHEX PRO and view the data: Asia-North EuropeAsia-USWC/USEC

June 1, 202628 min

Consumer Sentiment, Container Volumes, and Why the Correlation Doesn't Exist

Rates are climbing, carriers are piling on surcharges, and peak season is arriving ahead of schedule. This week Lars Jensen runs the numbers on why the market is where it is and it has everything to do with the Red Sea and almost nothing to do with how consumers are feeling.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:Why Pacific and Asia-Europe spot rates continue their upward momentum and what the futures curve is signaling for peak season, including a sharp expected pullback as early as SeptemberThe statistical relationship between US consumer sentiment and container volumes: Lars ran the analysis and the correlation coefficient is 0.3. There effectively isn't one.Hormuz update: no deal, drone strikes on Kuwait, a suspected mine in Omani waters, and an MSC 18,000 TEU vessel that went dark for five days and reappeared off West AfricaHow CMA-CGM continues to quietly expand its Suez routing while every other carrier goes around AfricaChina PMI at exactly 50, and why the raw materials sub-index shooting above 60 post-Hormuz is the inflation signal worth watchingGlobal trade imbalances since 2019: full containers up 17%, fleet up 43%, TEU miles up 41% and empty container movements up 102%

May 26, 202627 min

Peak Season Is Loading: Supply, Demand, and a New Hormuz Attack

Freight rates on both Asia-Europe and Transpacific are strengthening and this week Lars breaks down why the driver is fundamentals, not Hormuz. Meanwhile, a vessel explosion in the Gulf of Oman adds fresh tension to an already fragile situation.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:Why capacity injection on Asia-North Europe and Transpacific is running well below demand growth, and what that means for peak season ratesA breaking report of a vessel explosion in the Gulf of Oman and what it signals about the state of the Hormuz conflictThe five and a half billion dollar added fuel cost burden on the container shipping industry over the past three months and how it compares to total industry EBITGemini Alliance reliability bouncing back to 85% and a standout 98.5% on Asia-US West CoastThe UK ETS taking effect July 1st and the loophole it closes for carriers routing through UK portsUS consumer sentiment hitting its lowest reading since 1952, and whether that translates to freight demand

May 18, 202624 min

Hormuz Holds, El Niño Looms: Stacking the Risks for 2027

Transpacific rates are grinding higher into peak season while the Hormuz crisis shows no sign of resolution, and a new weather risk is quietly building for the Panama Canal.In this episode, Lars Jensen and guest host Don Davis cover:NYFI spot rate momentum on Asia-US West Coast and Asia-Europe, and what futures rates suggest for the next two monthsIran's tightening grip on Strait of Hormuz traffic, including vessel seizures and a potential threat to subsea data cablesCMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd suspending Cuba bookings following new US sanctionsA NOAA upgrade placing a 67% probability on a strong or very strong El Niño, and what that means for Panama Canal capacity heading into 2027Q1 2026 carrier results: Maersk gained market share; Hapag-Lloyd volume declined year-on-year

May 11, 202617 min

Peak Season Incoming, Hormuz Holds, and Global Demand Takes a Hit

Pacific rates are flatlining but peak season signals are building, with freight futures pointing to a $900 per FEU jump on Asia-North Europe by July. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, global container demand fell 2.4% year-on-year in March, and Maersk posted a second consecutive quarter of negative EBIT.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:Rate movements across Asia-US West Coast, Asia-US East Coast, and Asia-North Europe, including what freight futures are signaling for peak seasonThe latest Hormuz developments including two new vessel attacks and the short-lived US military escort operationMarch global demand data: why the headline -2.4% masks a world that is otherwise still growing at 5-8%Maersk Q1 results and what two consecutive quarters of negative EBIT signals for carrier health

May 4, 202629 min

The Crisis That Isn't Moving Global Rates

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for two months, yet TransPacific and Asia-Europe freight rates are barely moving compared to the disruptions of 2024-2025. This week, Lars and Caroline put the Hormuz crisis in proper context and cover the other headlines reshaping ocean freight.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:Why Pacific and Asia-Europe spot rates are rising on seasonality, not the Hormuz crisis, and what the futures market is signaling for peak seasonLive updates from the Strait of Hormuz: vessel escorts, Iranian attacks, and why seafarers face higher risk inside a military convoy than outside oneHow Khor Fakkan scaled from 100 to 6,000 trucks per day to route cargo around a closed straitChina's new blocking statutes, the EU analog that already exists, and why compliance is now a lose-lose for many companiesThe MEPC decision expanding ECA coverage to the Northeast Atlantic and the net zero framework clinging to life support ahead of November

April 27, 202623 min

Hormuz Escalates, Plastics at Risk, and Reliability Still Broken

Iran has seized two MSC vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, bookings into the Persian Gulf have collapsed 66% year over year, and Somali pirates are back. The maritime risk picture is deteriorating fast.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:Transpacific NYFI movements by subtrade, including why Northeast Asia rates are more volatile than other originsWhy 20-foot and 40-foot rates on the Transatlantic have completely decoupled -- and what that means if you're shipping dense cargoAsia-North Europe spot rates weakening toward pre-crisis levels, while futures markets signal a recovery into MayIran seizing MSC vessels, the Hormuz closure, and the return of Somali piracyPlastics supply risk: why a Dow Chemical warning about ethylene and polyethylene shortages should be on every importer's radarOcean carrier reliability at 62% -- why the industry has systematically underperformed pre-pandemic norms, and what that means for global capacity

April 20, 202616 min

Rate Spreads, Hormuz Chaos, and a 66-Year Consumer Confidence Low

Ocean freight markets are sending mixed signals this week: Asia-Europe spot rates are falling, Pacific rates are ticking up, and Atlantic rates jumped sharply, but the bigger story is the widening spread between what different shippers are paying and what that uncertainty means.In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:Why expanding rate spreads across Asia-Europe, Transpacific, and Atlantic trades signal growing market uncertaintyThe Strait of Hormuz situation: the failed opening, vessel U-turns, Iranian attacks on ships, and what comes nextBunker fuel prices in context: why current levels, while high, are not the crisis they appear to beU.S. consumer sentiment hitting a 66-year record low and what that means for container volumes

April 13, 202617 min

Hormuz, Oil Prices, and Why Rates Aren’t Spiking (Yet)

Freight markets are reacting to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but not in the way many expected.In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, we break down why rate increases have been relatively modest so far, despite major geopolitical disruption, and what signals to watch beneath the surface.This episode covers: • Why Asia–US and Asia–Europe rates are rising gradually, not sharply • The role of bunker fuel in driving current rate increases • What early NYFI-linked futures activity is telling us about market expectations • How rerouting and limited transit through Hormuz are shaping capacity • The risk of escalation and what it could mean for key logistics gateways • Demand trends, including strong global growth and continued bifurcationPlus, insights on OOCL’s latest earnings and what they reveal about volume vs. rate performance.