
A Skeptic’s Guide to Investment Theory, with Theodore Hicks | Author: Evidence Base Investing [SGIM]
My "skeptic" approach to investment management applies to the trends, news, flavors of the month that populate the investment universe. But what about the theory and "rules" quoted in opposition to the fads? A true skeptic needs to question their validity and utility as well — and if you follow this podcast, that includes the Bogle truisms, or "Bogleisms," that I regularly like to quote. That's the conversation we have with Theodore Hicks, author of Evidence-Based Investing. 1 You can listen to the podcast on Substack or every podcast player . I published an extended version of the conversation on YouTube . We go through: Modern Portfolio Theory (Markowitz) — Correlation, a key component of this theory is not static and goes to one in crises, undermining the whole approach. Buy-and-hold / Boglehead school of thought — The idea that you should “keep it simple, buy and hold, and it’ll all work out in the end”. Theodore doesn’t dismiss it outright but argues it doesn’t work for every timeframe, especially near retirement. Buy the dip — The commonly held belief that the best strategy is always to buy market dips. Theodore argues it “works until it doesn’t” and is especially risky in a rising interest rate environment. Long-term stock market average returns — The claim that the US market averages ~8% over 100 years. Theodore calls this “100% true” but “100% irrelevant” because no individual has a 100-year time horizon. Diversification (traditional) — The conventional approach of diversifying across asset classes. Theodore doesn’t reject diversification but argues for diversifying across strategies instead, since traditional diversification fails when correlations converge in crises. Declining interest rate environment as the default — The implicit assumption (held by most in the industry) that rates will keep falling. Theodore argues we’ve shifted to an upwardly biased rate environment, which changes everything for stock market strategy. Subscribe now References Links George: https://www.linkedin.com/in/george-aliferis/ Theodore: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-mcglinn https://www.theodorehicks.com/freechapter (Book: read a free chapter) https://www.hicks-associates.com/ (Financial planning) About Theodore Hicks He is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Hicks and Associates Wealth Management, a boutique asset management firm in Cary, North Carolina. Drawing on more than two decades of experience in financial planning and portfolio management, Theodore leads a team that applies a rule-based, multi-strategy framework to actively manage risk and growth for clients across the United States. About George Aliferis Founder or Orama, ex-banker, ex-sales, working at the intersection of investment management, media & marketing.LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/george-aliferis/ Disclaimer This video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, or financial advice. Consult qualified professionals before launching financial products or making investment decisions. MUSIC CREDITS Brandenburg Concerto No4-1 BWV1049 - Classical Whimsical by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Source: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?isrc=USUAN1100303 Artist: http://incompetech.com/ 1 There is at least one other book called Evidence-Based Investing and a few attempts at claiming the evidence-based concept. This is unrelated, it simply is the title Theodore has chosen for his book, based on his research. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit investorama.substack.com
















