NatWest Commercial and Institutional

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Nov 2026

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Need to keep up-to-date with the latest economic analysis and financial market news? Subscribe to our podcast today to receive our analysis and views every week. If you need to know more about the key themes impacting corporates, financial institutions and investors, our strategists offer their views on the latest trends. Subscribe today to get our latest economic analysis and financial market updates.

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November 6, 202624 min

Trade Links (episode 15): US-China trade truce: What comes next for global trade?

In this episode of Trade Links, host Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to examine what the latest meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping means for global trade and geopolitics. The discussion explores whether the two economic superpowers can maintain their fragile trade truce, how tariffs and strategic competition are reshaping global supply chains, and why copper has become an increasingly important part of the trade story. The panel also looks ahead to key geopolitical flashpoints, from Russian energy exports to tensions in the Red Sea region. Key takeaways 1. The US-China trade truce is buying time, not resolving differences The meeting between Trump and Xi was less about reaching a comprehensive trade agreement and more about preserving a period of relative stability. Both sides have reasons to avoid escalation, from managing economic vulnerabilities to demonstrating strength at home. The challenge is maintaining momentum while fundamental disagreements over trade, technology and national security remain unresolved. 2. Global supply chains are being rerouted rather than dismantled Direct trade between the US and China has declined over the past decade, but this does not mean their economies have completely decoupled. Countries such as Vietnam and Mexico have become increasingly important intermediaries in global supply chains, with goods and components moving through them before reaching their final destinations. For businesses, understanding these indirect trade connections is becoming just as important as tracking bilateral trade flows. 3. Critical minerals are becoming a strategic trade issue Copper prices have risen sharply as demand from electrification, renewable energy, grid investment and AI infrastructure combines with precautionary stockpiling in the US. The possibility of future US import restrictions has encouraged businesses to build inventories ahead of potential policy changes. This illustrates how anticipated trade barriers can influence markets and supply chains even before governments introduce new measures. 4. Trade policy uncertainty creates winners and losers Copper producers and exporting countries benefit from higher prices, while industries that rely heavily on the metal face rising input costs. More broadly, the episode highlights how businesses can be affected by trade policy expectations as well as actual restrictions. Governments and companies that overlook their strategic dependencies risk greater economic and political vulnerability. 5. Several geopolitical decisions could test the trade truce The relationship between Washington and Beijing faces further tests over rare earth exports, Russian oil purchases, semiconductor restrictions and US military support for Taiwan. Upcoming diplomatic meetings offer opportunities to extend the period of stability, but they also create potential flashpoints. Meanwhile, tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea could draw in other regional powers and add to wider geopolitical instability. What should businesses watch next? - Growing tensions between the US and countries that continue to purchase Russian energy. The issue extends beyond Russia itself, raising questions about how far Washington can use trade policy and secondary sanctions to influence the behaviour of third countries. - Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. A wider conflict could draw in other regional powers, including Egypt and Gulf states, potentially adding another layer of instability to an already volatile region. Speakers:Tim Phillips, HostAastha Gupta, European Economist, Economics & Market StrategyScott Livingstone, International Advisor This episode was recorded on 15 September. Please view our full disclaimer here (https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html) All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

September 3, 202625 min

Trade Links (episode 14) Is tariff confusion a feature of international trade?

Tariffs are supposed to be a cost businesses can calculate. But with US trade policy changing rapidly, the bigger challenge for exporters and importers may be knowing which tariff will actually apply when goods arrive. In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to explore the economic impact of tariff uncertainty and what it means for businesses making cross-border investment and sourcing decisions. The conversation then turns to another major challenge for Europe: the growing impact of Chinese industrial overcapacity, increasingly described by economists as “China shock 2.0”. As Chinese exports move further up the value chain, the panel considers whether Europe faces not simply a trade challenge, but the potential hollowing-out of its industrial ecosystem. 5 key takeaways 1. Tariff uncertainty can be as damaging as tariffs themselves Businesses are accustomed to dealing with tariffs. The problem is that the rules are now changing so quickly that companies may struggle to know what their costs will be when goods actually arrive. An order can be negotiated today, placed next week, shipped a month later and cleared through customs weeks after that. Knowing today’s tariff is therefore less useful if the rate could change before the transaction is completed. 2. The US tariff regime has become deliberately complex More than 50 separate US tariff announcements were made during 2025, according to research discussed in the episode. Rates, exemptions and the rules governing them have continued to evolve. Scott argues that the fluctuating communication around tariffs should not necessarily be viewed as accidental. Instead, uncertainty can provide negotiating leverage and give the US administration greater “optionality” when dealing with trading partners. Legal challenges add another layer of uncertainty, with multiple cases contesting the basis for different US tariff measures. 3. Confusion can cause businesses to put trade decisions on hold The economic impact of tariffs doesn’t necessarily require trade to stop altogether. If companies cannot confidently predict their costs, they may delay orders, postpone contracts or stick with existing suppliers rather than take a risk on a new trading relationship. The impact may be particularly pronounced in more transactional markets, where suppliers can easily be substituted. Long-standing strategic supplier relationships may be more resilient because replacing them is harder. 4. China’s industrial capacity could become Europe’s next major trade challenge Scott introduces the concept of the “grey rhino”: a high-probability, high-impact event that is visible in advance but insufficiently acted upon. Aastha identifies China’s growing industrial capacity as one such threat. Weak domestic demand in China, combined with greater US protectionism, could encourage more Chinese exports towards open markets such as Europe. And this isn’t limited to low-cost consumer goods. Chinese companies are increasingly competitive in areas including EVs, batteries, machinery, chemicals and sophisticated industrial equipment. The concern is that sustained competition could eventually weaken the wider European manufacturing ecosystem, affecting suppliers, investment, skills and industrial know-how. 5. Europe faces a difficult balancing act between growth and resilience Chinese competition does not affect every European country or company in the same way. Manufacturers competing directly with Chinese products may see the situation as a threat, while companies using Chinese steel, batteries or other components may benefit from lower input costs. That creates a difficult policy trade-off for the EU: maintaining access to Chinese investment and inexpensive inputs while reducing strategic dependencies. The panel describes this shift as moving from “decoupling” to “de-risking” – not ending trade with China, but reducing vulnerabilities in strategically important areas. What to watch in future: Egypt and Ethiopia: Scott highlights renewed tensions over Ethiopia’s plans for additional dams on the Nile. China’s oil inventories: Aastha is watching evidence that China’s crude imports may be softening after a period of significant stockpiling, including purchases from Russia. Speakers: Tim Phillips, Host Aastha Gupta, European Economist, Economics & Market Strategy Scott Livingstone, International Advisor This episode was recorded on 19 August. Please view our full disclaimer here (https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html) All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

August 11, 202622 min

Trade Links (episode 13): Shadow fleets and the new rules of global trade

Global trade is increasingly being shaped by geopolitics rather than economics alone. In this episode of Trade Links, host Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to examine two stories that illustrate this shift. First, the panel explores the rise of the so-called shadow fleet – a network of vessels transporting sanctioned oil from countries including Russia, Iran and Venezuela. What began as a workaround to sanctions has evolved into a parallel shipping system that now carries a meaningful share of global crude exports. The discussion looks at how these networks operate, why they have proven so resilient, and what tougher enforcement by European governments could mean for global trade. The conversation then turns to ASML, the Dutch company whose lithography machines sit at the heart of advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Following US concerns that one of ASML’s most sophisticated machines may have reached China, the panel discusses why these machines have become strategic geopolitical assets, how export controls are reshaping global technology markets, and why governments increasingly view supply chains as instruments of national power. Together, the two stories highlight a common theme: the fragmentation of the global trading system, where commercial decisions are increasingly influenced by security, technology and geopolitical competition. What to watch: US trade policy: With several important deadlines approaching, the next phase of US tariff and trade policy could have significant implications for global commerce. EU-China trade relations: European policymakers are increasingly debating how to respond to rising imports from China and the long-term competitiveness of European manufacturing, with important policy decisions expected later this year. Speakers Host: Tim Phillips Guests: Aastha Gupta (European Economist) Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) Subscribe, leave a review, and join us for future episodes as we continue to unpack the world’s evolving trade landscape. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html Subtitles automatically generated. Please check out and subscribe to our channels on Apple and Spotify. This episode was recorded on 17 July 2026. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

July 1, 202627 min

Trade Links (episode 12): The big re-shoring puzzle

Since 2020, governments across the US, Europe and the UK have promoted re-shoring, near-shoring and friend-shoring as ways to strengthen supply chains, create jobs and reduce strategic dependence on China. But how much of this shift is genuinely bringing industry home, and how much is simply reorganising global trade? In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to separate the headlines from the underlying data. In this episode: Is re-shoring really happening? Aastha explains how industrial policies such as the US CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act have channelled hundreds of billions of dollars into semiconductors, electric vehicles and clean technology. However, the evidence suggests that the re-shoring story is more complicated than political messaging implies: * Many supply chains remain heavily dependent on imported components. * Production is often being rerouted through intermediary countries such as Vietnam and Mexico rather than returning home. * New investment frequently represents additional capacity rather than relocation of existing manufacturing. * Foreign firms are increasingly establishing local operations in Europe and North America. The result is less a wholesale return of manufacturing and more a gradual reconfiguration of global supply chains. The jobs question Large investment announcements often promise tens of thousands of jobs, but the panel highlights an important distinction between construction employment and long-term operational jobs. Capital-intensive sectors such as semiconductor fabrication, battery production and clean technology require enormous upfront investment but relatively modest permanent workforces. The discussion asks whether today’s industrial policy is delivering broad-based reindustrialisation or simply targeted support for strategically important sectors. Friend-shoring: Trading with trusted partners Scott explores the rise of friend-shoring, where countries prioritise reliability, integrity and political dependability over lowest-cost suppliers. Examples include: * US–Vietnam trade ties * Europe’s engagement with Saudi Arabia * UK partnerships focused on critical minerals The conversation examines how governments increasingly define “friends” through commercial resilience and strategic interests rather than shared political systems. The costs of resilience Re-shoring and friend-shoring may strengthen supply security, but they also come with trade-offs. Economic costs include: * Higher production costs * Significant public subsidies * Potential inflationary pressures * Reduced efficiency from fragmented supply chains Political challenges include: * Greater fragmentation of the global trading system * Managing increasingly transactional international relationships * Questions over credibility when values-based foreign policy collides with commercial interests US–China relations: Spin versus substance The panel also revisits recent US–China engagement following President Trump’s visit to Beijing and ahead of a planned follow-up meeting in September. Key questions include: * Was the visit a diplomatic success for both sides? * Did any meaningful structural agreements emerge? * Could September bring progress on tariffs, rare earths or technology controls? The panel concludes that recent engagement has largely focused on stabilising tensions rather than resolving fundamental disputes. What to watch Aastha’s radar: The growing use of “shadow fleets” transporting sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran is creating an increasingly opaque parallel trading system, raising questions about sanctions effectiveness and transparency in global commerce. Scott’s radar: Military exercises around Taiwan and in the Baltic Sea this summer warrant close attention. Demonstrations of capability by Taiwan, China, NATO and Russia all carry the risk of misinterpretation and unintended escalation. Speakers Host: Tim Phillips Guests: Aastha Gupta (European Economist) Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) Subscribe, leave a review, and join us for future episodes as we continue to unpack the world’s evolving trade landscape. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html Subtitles automatically generated. Please check out and subscribe to our channels on Apple and Spotify. This episode was recorded on 17 June 2026. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

May 19, 202643 min

Property Perspectives: The Future of Real Estate with Richard Pickering

What’s Next for UK Real Estate? To close this season of Property Perspectives, we zoom out and look ahead. Richard Pickering, Foresight Director at Cushman & Wakefield, joins us to connect the dots across every real estate sector we’ve explored—from residential and industrial to retail and the office. Alongside NatWest hosts Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman, Richard unpacks the megatrends shaping the built environment, including ageing populations, hybrid working, AI-driven supply chains, and the evolving role of cities. Bringing together insights from across the series, this episode explores how UK real estate could fundamentally change over the next 10–20 years—and what that means for investors, occupiers, and communities. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

May 12, 202626 min

Trade Links: Brexit: 10 years on, what next for the UK-EU relationship?

In this episode of Trade Links, host Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to revisit two major trade stories shaping the global economy: 10 years on from Brexit, and one year after the US “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. The discussion explores how trade relationships have evolved, where economic frictions remain, and why geopolitics is increasingly influencing global commerce. Brexit – Ten Years On 1. UK–EU trade has stabilised, but at a lower level UK goods trade with the EU remains around 10–15% below its pre-Brexit trajectory in volume terms, even though trade values have recovered due to inflation and higher prices. Manufacturing sectors including automotive and chemicals continue to struggle, while food and agriculture recovered after an early shock but remain more volatile. UK services exports have stayed resilient overall, largely thanks to growth in non-EU markets such as the US, masking weaker EU performance. 2. Non-tariff barriers remain the biggest drag on trade Although Brexit avoided tariffs, businesses continue to face customs paperwork, rules-of-origin requirements, and border checks. These non-tariff barriers are estimated to create costs equivalent to 7–10% tariffs on goods trade. Smaller exporters have been disproportionately affected, with some firms deciding exporting to the EU is no longer commercially worthwhile. 3. Political and economic pressures are encouraging closer alignment The UK and EU are increasingly pursuing pragmatic cooperation in areas such as energy, customs data sharing, food standards, and youth mobility. Sectors including agri-food, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and electric vehicles could benefit significantly from regulatory alignment. Broader geopolitical pressures — including Russia’s aggression and uncertainty around US policy toward Europe — are creating incentives for deeper UK–EU cooperation without full reintegration. One Year After US “Liberation Day” Tariffs 1. The tariffs were dramatic politically, but economically less effective US headline tariff rates jumped from roughly 2.5% to over 20%, levels not seen for more than a century. In practice, exemptions, carve-outs, and negotiations reduced the effective tariff burden closer to around 10%. Despite the scale of the announcements, the US goods trade deficit widened rather than narrowed over the following year. 2. Tariffs changed behaviour more than outcomes Companies accelerated imports ahead of tariff implementation before reducing volumes once measures took effect. Firms adapted supply chains through rerouting, exemptions, and alternative sourcing strategies. Businesses increasingly shifted from “just-in-time” supply chains to “just-in-case” inventory models, embedding higher costs into global trade. 3. Trade has become a geopolitical weapon Countries responded with bilateral negotiations, retaliatory tariffs, supply-chain diversification, and efforts to avoid provoking Washington. China’s restrictions on rare earth exports highlighted the strategic importance of trade choke points and critical supply chains. The panel argues that the world is entering a more fragmented era of globalisation, where resilience and geopolitical alignment increasingly matter more than pure economic efficiency. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

May 12, 202637 min

Property Perspectives: Inside the UK Housing Market with Savill’s Lucian Cook

What’s shaping the UK’s residential property market as conditions continue to shift? In this episode of Property Perspectives , Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman are joined by Lucian Cook , Head of Residential Research at Savills, to unpack a residential market characterised by uncertainty and competing pressures. With interest rates higher for longer, mortgage availability tightening and build costs continuing to rise, they explore what this means for house prices, transaction volumes and affordability. The conversation also examines regional disparities, demographic challenges and the impact of the Renters Rights Act on landlords, tenants and investors, offering a grounded, research‑led perspective on the forces reshaping UK residential real estate — and what to watch as the market adjusts. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

April 28, 202630 min

Property Perspectives: Industrial in Motion: Newmark on a Sector Built for Change

How has the industrial sector evolved into one of the UK’s most resilient and in‑demand real estate asset classes? In this episode, Newmark’s Steve Sharman and Seb Moseley join NatWest hosts Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman to explore what’s driving industrial today. From automation and power requirements to supply, tenant demand and long‑term structural trends, they discuss why industrial has proven so resilient — and what that means for investors, developers and occupiers looking ahead. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

April 14, 202633 min

Property Perspectives: JLL on the Future of Offices: Rents, Regions & Reality

How are office markets evolving across the UK — and what’s really driving rents, demand and regional divergence? In this episode, JLL’s John Woodger and James Devany join hosts Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman to cut through the noise. They compare trends across London and key regional cities, explore shifting occupier expectations, and reveal what these changes mean for the future of UK offices. NB. This was recorded on 27 January 2026. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

April 13, 202632 min

Property Perspectives: Finding value in retail with New River CEO Allan Lockhart

In this episode, Allan Lockhart, Chief Executive of New River, REIT, joins NatWest hosts Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman to unpack the major forces reshaping the retail real estate landscape. NB. This was recorded on 27 January 2026. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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