Market Elevation is a casual and compelling conversation amongst market insiders made up of equal parts expertise, relevance, and humor.
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August 13, 202532 min
Cirrus Market Outlook Q3 2025: Speculation to Run with Tail Risk in the Making.
In this episode, Satya Pradhuman walks through Cirrus' outlook on equities for the year.Adages such as “Buy on the rumor, sell the news” or “Be nimble or be humbled” come to mind as fundamental elements stack up for an ongoing run-up of risk-taking. That said, key measures on the inflation front, tactical crowding extremes and the global capital flows point to a need to de-risk as we get to the Fall and the Fed’s decision will hang in the balance.
January 21, 202534 min
Cirrus Market Outlook 2025: Risk-on Posture to Collide with Valuations as Fed Breaks Promise.
in this episode, Satya Pradhuman outlines the firm’s framing of the current market environment in our latest Market Elevation Podcast.We continue to hold a favorable outlook on equities as we barrel into 2025. Rebounding earnings and the recent change to a risk-on run are likely to remain as fundamentals have been strong and likely to continue. In this episode, we make the case that fundamentals remain sound, but tactical elements are starting to heat up.
October 18, 202434 min
Cirrus Market Outlook: Q4 2024 - Credit Expansion Cycle to Broaden Leadership and Temper a Quality Bias.
In this episode, Satya Pradhuman outlines the firm’s framing of the current market environment in our latest Market Elevation Podcast.Leadership will continue to be stress-tested as a more cyclical market leadership profile settles and the grumblings over NVIDIA’s (NVDA) deceleration in growth become louder. By the first quarter of next year, the Fed will have likely made additional moves in easing. Focusing on a strong close of the year and out towards 2025, we continue to highlight the risk of a more cyclical run, that credit markets are strong, and profits are on the rebound. Counter to the consensus view of a recession given the Fed’s recent rate cut, we believe that the concern may be more lodged on the side of inflation concerns reheating, effectively a bearish steepener.
July 26, 202431 min
Cirrus Market Outlook: Q3 2024 - Barbelled Mag-7 and Value to Close Strong in ’24!
in this episode, Satya Pradhuman outlines the firm’s framing of the current market environment in our latest Market Elevation Podcast.A combination of solid earnings for the market, notably strong for the AI segments, and easy credit allows for a pro-equity stance. The challenge for managing the portfolio as we close the year are twofold. The first is to smartly navigate the trending influences of AI until gravity takes its toll on the fiery run of Nvida sales. Second is how to reflect a more cyclical/fundamentally driven exposure as the global profit cycle rebounds. To adeptly manage this likely scenario, a barbelled posture makes sense: to hold the trending components until we get tactical red flags but also continue to look at firms more broadly to use valuations to discern organic growth at a reasonable price as the profits cycle is on the mend.
In this episode, we walk through the outlook for US equities. In short, a very constructive outlook is really set up for us in terms of looking out to the rest of 2024. Part of this has to do with these bottoming of the profit cycle, and also the easy credit backdrop that we see. In addition, we also see a Fed that's likely to be more dovish.The information contained in this Podcast report ("Podcast") is based on sources we believe to be reliable at the time it was produced and distributed but it is not necessarily complete, and its accuracy is not guaranteed. Neither Cirrus nor any of our affiliates or any other person makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the Podcast 's accuracy, completeness, or correctness. To the maximum extent permitted by law, neither we, any of our affiliates, nor any other person, shall have any liability whatsoever to any person for any loss or expense, whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental or otherwise, arising from or relating in any way to any use of or reliance on information contained herein. This Podcast is not a research report, solicitation, or offer, to buy or sell any security or claim and is being provided solely for informational purposes. Nothing in this Podcast constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions or estimates contained in this Podcast represent our judgment at the present time and are subject to change without notice. Cirrus has no obligation to advise you of any such changes.This Podcast was prepared for general circulation and without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive or obtain access to it and it may not be suitable for all investors. No one listening, receiving or accessing this Podcast should make any investment decision without first consulting his/her own personal financial advisor and conducting their own research and due diligence, including but not limited to carefully reviewing any applicable prospectuses, press releases, reports and other public filings of the issuer of any securities being considered. There is not enough information contained in this Podcast to make an investment decision and past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. Third-party trademarks, logos and brand names contained in this Podcast may be the trademarks, registered trademarks or other property of their respective owners. Any use in this Podcast of trademarks, logos or brand names is for identification purposes only and does not imply or express any sponsorship, affiliation or endorsement by the respective third-party owners of this Podcast, or vice versa, or that any such third-party owner has authorized the use of its trademark, logo or brand.
February 29, 202439 min
Q1 2024 Market Crowding Spotlights Changing of the Guard Risks
While fundamentals remain constructive for the 2024 equity market outlook, intra-market rotations abound. The market’s thirst for AI tools and technology investments in 2023 played out in a dramatic fashion. A stabilizing profit cycle coupled with a supportive credit market allows investors to look more broadly at opportunities in equities. In short, while we can foresee some turbulence with a possible break in leadership, fundamentals remain constructive in the equity markets.
November 16, 202335 min
Cirrus Market Outlook: Q4 2023 Soft landing and interest rate risk point to a Value tilt.
Soft landing and interest rate risk point to a Value tilt. A rebound in earnings expectations and better-than-expected economic data have been hinting at a stabilization in the profit cycle. While a bottoming profit cycle is critical to a fundamental shift away from Growth to Value, a spike in rates is the accelerant to a break in speculative strategies and the turn to a value-sensitive swing.Learn more: https://bit.ly/3M4XianThe information contained in this Podcast report ("Podcast") is based on sources we believe to be reliable at the time it was produced and distributed but it is not necessarily complete, and its accuracy is not guaranteed. Neither Cirrus nor any of our affiliates or any other person makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the Podcast 's accuracy, completeness, or correctness. To the maximum extent permitted by law, neither we, any of our affiliates, nor any other person, shall have any liability whatsoever to any person for any loss or expense, whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental or otherwise, arising from or relating in any way to any use of or reliance on information contained herein. This Podcast is not a research report, solicitation, or offer, to buy or sell any security or claim and is being provided solely for informational purposes. Nothing in this Podcast constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions or estimates contained in this Podcast represent our judgment at the present time and are subject to change without notice. Cirrus has no obligation to advise you of any such changes.This Podcast was prepared for general circulation and without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive or obtain access to it and it may not be suitable for all investors. No one listening, receiving or accessing this Podcast should make any investment decision without first consulting his/her own personal financial advisor and conducting their own research and due diligence, including but not limited to carefully reviewing any applicable prospectuses, press releases, reports and other public filings of the issuer of any securities being considered. There is not enough information contained in this Podcast to make an investment decision and past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. Third-party trademarks, logos and brand names contained in this Podcast may be the trademarks, registered trademarks or other property of their respective owners. Any use in this Podcast of trademarks, logos or brand names is for identification purposes only and does not imply or express any sponsorship, affiliation or endorsement by the respective third-party owners of this Podcast, or vice versa, or that any such third-party owner has authorized the use of its trademark, logo or brand.
August 2, 202328 min
Cirrus Market Outlook: When Investors Chase the “Pick and Shovels” of the AI Trade.
The current run-up in the market appears to be an echo of the Y2K/Internet melt-up. In both periods, we experience a dramatic surge in Technology spending, effectively pulling technology consumption several years in advance, and allowing markets to chase the sector with reckless abandon. In both instances, a sharp break occurs followed by a major dead-cat bounce. Without a recessionary break to drive interest rates lower, or risk-taking measures overheating, a trending market that chases Mega Cap Tech will remain in place.Learn more: https://bit.ly/3CZWXRtThe information contained in this Podcast report ("Podcast") is based on sources we believe to be reliable at the time it was produced and distributed but it is not necessarily complete, and its accuracy is not guaranteed. Neither Cirrus nor any of our affiliates or any other person makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the Podcast 's accuracy, completeness, or correctness. To the maximum extent permitted by law, neither we, any of our affiliates, nor any other person, shall have any liability whatsoever to any person for any loss or expense, whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental or otherwise, arising from or relating in any way to any use of or reliance on information contained herein. This Podcast is not a research report, solicitation, or offer, to buy or sell any security or claim and is being provided solely for informational purposes. Nothing in this Podcast constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions or estimates contained in this Podcast represent our judgment at the present time and are subject to change without notice. Cirrus has no obligation to advise you of any such changes.This Podcast was prepared for general circulation and without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive or obtain access to it and it may not be suitable for all investors. No one listening, receiving or accessing this Podcast should make any investment decision without first consulting his/her own personal financial advisor and conducting their own research and due diligence, including but not limited to carefully reviewing any applicable prospectuses, press releases, reports and other public filings of the issuer of any securities being considered. There is not enough information contained in this Podcast to make an investment decision and past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. Third-party trademarks, logos and brand names contained in this Podcast may be the trademarks, registered trademarks or other property of their respective owners. Any use in this Podcast of trademarks, logos or brand names is for identification purposes only and does not imply or express any sponsorship, affiliation or endorsement by the respective third-party owners of this Podcast, or vice versa, or that any such third-party owner has authorized the use of its trademark, logo or brand.
April 26, 202334 min
Market Elevation - Cirrus Outlook
Key Takeaways:-Testing for aftershocks – watching credit and regional bank ripples.-Quality Bet Amplified as Capital Markets “Join” in the Tightening Cycle.- The Sell-side is behind the Curve; Earnings Expectations to Roll Lower before they Bottom.- Fed Offset Limits Rate Risk for the Growth Investor; Growth Strategies Get a Short Reprieve.- Liquidity Model Still Frames a Lower Returns Environment for Equities even though Banking Crisis Accelerates the Fed Trajectory.Link to recent Dispatch for detailed discussion: https://bit.ly/3L7UJV4Cirrus Dispatch: Quality Bet Amplifies as the Capital Markets Tighten.The information contained in this Podcast report ("Podcast") is based on sources we believe to be reliable at the time it was produced and distributed but it is not necessarily complete, and its accuracy is not guaranteed. Neither Cirrus nor any of our affiliates or any other person makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the Podcast 's accuracy, completeness, or correctness. To the maximum extent permitted by law, neither we, any of our affiliates, nor any other person, shall have any liability whatsoever to any person for any loss or expense, whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental or otherwise, arising from or relating in any way to any use of or reliance on information contained herein. This Podcast is not a research report, solicitation, or offer, to buy or sell any security or claim and is being provided solely for informational purposes. Nothing in this Podcast constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions or estimates contained in this Podcast represent our judgment at the present time and are subject to change without notice. Cirrus has no obligation to advise you of any such changes.This Podcast was prepared for general circulation and without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive or obtain access to it and it may not be suitable for all investors. No one listening, receiving or accessing this Podcast should make any investment decision without first consulting his/her own personal financial advisor and conducting their own research and due diligence, including but not limited to carefully reviewing any applicable prospectuses, press releases, reports and other public filings of the issuer of any securities being considered. There is not enough information contained in this Podcast to make an investment decision and past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. Third-party trademarks, logos and brand names contained in this Podcast may be the trademarks, registered trademarks or other property of their respective owners. Any use in this Podcast of trademarks, logos or brand names is for identification purposes only and does not imply or express any sponsorship, affiliation or endorsement by the respective third-party owners of this Podcast, or vice versa, or that any such third-party owner has authorized the use of its trademark, logo or brand.
February 7, 202337 min
Market Conversation: 2023 Outlook
The outlook for US equities in 2023 remains locked in a defensive stance. With sharp reversals seen in the bear market of 2022, excesses are worn down and valuation adjustments allow investors to look more opportunistically in the coming year. In short, 2023 becomes a market of stocks, not a call on a stock market. 2023 is a more nuanced year where fundamentals will continue to matter, a year of less shock and awe. https://cirrus-res.com/The information contained in this Podcast report ("Podcast") is based on sources we believe to be reliable at the time it was produced and distributed but it is not necessarily complete, and its accuracy is not guaranteed. Neither Cirrus nor any of our affiliates or any other person makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the Podcast 's accuracy, completeness, or correctness. To the maximum extent permitted by law, neither we, any of our affiliates, nor any other person, shall have any liability whatsoever to any person for any loss or expense, whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental or otherwise, arising from or relating in any way to any use of or reliance on information contained herein. This Podcast is not a research report, solicitation, or offer, to buy or sell any security or claim and is being provided solely for informational purposes. Nothing in this Podcast constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions or estimates contained in this Podcast represent our judgment at the present time and are subject to change without notice. Cirrus has no obligation to advise you of any such changes.This Podcast was prepared for general circulation and without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive or obtain access to it and it may not be suitable for all investors. No one listening, receiving or accessing this Podcast should make any investment decision without first consulting his/her own personal financial advisor and conducting their own research and due diligence, including but not limited to carefully reviewing any applicable prospectuses, press releases, reports and other public filings of the issuer of any securities being considered. There is not enough information contained in this Podcast to make an investment decision and past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. Third-party trademarks, logos and brand names contained in this Podcast may be the trademarks, registered trademarks or other property of their respective owners. Any use in this Podcast of trademarks, logos or brand names is for identification purposes only and does not imply or express any sponsorship, affiliation or endorsement by the respective third-party owners of this Podcast, or vice versa, or that any such third-party owner has authorized the use of its trademark, logo or brand.
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