Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Hosted by Bilal Hafeez

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331

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Aug 2026

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About the show

We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.

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60 recent

August 21, 2026Episode 37255 min

Ep. 372: Branko Milanović on China's Rise, the Shift to National Market Liberalism, and Inequality

Branko is a research professor at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality at the City University of New York. He received his Ph D from the University of Belgrade in 1987 and served as lead economist in the World Bank's Research Department for almost 20 years, leaving to write his book on global income inequality, Worlds Apart . He later worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, the University of Maryland, Johns Hopkins University , All Souls College in Oxford, and Universidad Carlos III in Madrid . Branko's main area of work is income inequality. He is the author of several books – the most recent one being The Great Global Transformation . In this podcast, we discuss : The Shift to National Market Liberalism The Geopolitical and Personal Impact of China The Rise of " Homoplutia " The "Folksy Elite" and Meritocratic Ideology India's Alternative Development Model Europe's Strategic and Economic Paradox The Policy Dilemma of the "Elephant Chart" Elite Multiplication and Youth Anxiety

August 14, 2026Episode 37146 min

Ep. 371: Paul Krake on AI's Post-Cyclical World, 10% Unemployment Risks, and the End of Friction

Paul Krake is an investor, strategist, and independent researcher with three decades across macroeconomics, policy, and capital markets. In 2011 , he founded the research platform View from the Peak after macro roles at Corus Capital, Caxton Associates, Moore Capital, Goldman Sachs, and Macquarie Bank. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Post-Cyclical" Economy The Reduction of Economic Friction Margins vs. Labour Share The Path to 10% Unemployment The "Lucas Tree" Multiple Problem Golden Age of Equity Investing The "55-Year-Old Man" Advantage Advice for Graduates: Atoms vs. Bits

August 7, 2026Episode 37049 min

Ep. 370: Eric Beinhocker on Market Humanism, the End of Neoliberalism, and Human Flourishing

Eric Beinhocker is a professor at the University of Oxford's Blavatnik School of Government and the founder and executive director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School (INET Oxford), a research center dedicated to applying innovative economics to major societal challenges. He is also Chairman of the Science Board at the Santa Fe Institute. Prior to his academic career, Beinhocker spent three decades as a technology entrepreneur, venture capitalist, and consultant to Fortune 500 companies. He is the author of The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What It Means for Business and Society. The Collapse of Neoliberalism The "Market Humanism" Synthesis From Homoeconomicus to Homo Sapiens Markets as Evolutionary Engines Value as Problem-Solving The Structural Reality of Inequality "Middle-Out" vs. "Trickle-Down" Growth The State as a Market Shaper Macrocosm: Mode l ling the Economy with AI Human Skills in the Age of AI

July 31, 2026Episode 36944 min

Ep. 369: Marvin Barth on US Re-Industrialisation, Trump 2.0, and the Localisation Thesis

Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?! . Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously , Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin doesn't have time to research at Thematic Markets . Both publications benefit from the uniquely broad perspective on the global political economy Marvin has gained from a three-decade career spanning nearly every asset class, academia, central banking, finance ministry, and international institutions. This includes working at Barclays Investment Bank, Citi, the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Treasury Department, and the Bank for International Settlements. The Locali s ation Thesis Manufacturing vs. The AI "Bubble" The Labour Disconnect (Poetry vs. Welding) Trump 2.0: Preparedness and Instincts The Iran War and American Exceptionalism The Fed's "Neutral Rate" Error The Rise of Kevin Warsh The Brexit Reality Check Andy Burnham: The "Low Delta Call Option"

July 24, 2026Episode 36840 min

Ep. 368: Richard Clarida on the Warsh Fed, the AI Capex Boom, and Global Economic Fragmentation

Dr Clarida is a managing director and global economic advisor at PIMCO. Prior to rejoining PIMCO in 2022, he was the firm's global strategic advisor from 2006 to 2018. He served as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System from September 2018 to January 2022. Richard is also Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University. Before joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, in which he served as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury Secretaries. Earlier in his career, he was with Credit Suisse and Grossman Asset Management. He has 26 years of investment experience and holds a PhD and a master's degree in economics from Harvard University. He received an undergraduate degree with Bronze Tablet Honors from the University of Illinois. In this podcast, we discuss: Clarida's Macro Origin Story Global Economic Resilience The AI Capex Boom Labour's Declining Income Share The "Warsh Fed" Doctrine Revisiting Forward Guidance AI's Impact on Productivity and R-star The Era of Global Fragmentation Optimism for the Next Generation You can follow Richard on LinkedIn as well as the PIMCO website .

July 17, 2026Episode 36745 min

Ep. 367: Brendan Greeley on The Almighty Dollar, 500 Years of History, and the Eurodollar Market

Brendan Greeley has spent twenty years as a journalist, covering economic and monetary policy. He was the US economics editor at the Financial Times and continues to write a regular column there. Before that, he was a staff writer for Bloomberg Businessweek and The Economist , as well as an anchor and correspondent for Bloomberg TV . He has also written for The New York Times , The New York Times Magazine , and The Wall Street Journal Europe , and received a New York Press Club Award for special event reporting. Brendan graduated from Tulane University with honours in German. He is currently completing a PhD in financial history at Princeton University. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Ancient Dollar's" Bohemian Roots Skepticism of Monetary Sovereignty The Constitutional Shift to Private Banking Nationalising Money via the Civil War The Primacy of Federal Deposit Insurance Endogenous Money: How Banks Create the Dollar The Rise of the Offshore Eurodollar Market Stablecoins as " Schmanks " (Unregulated Banks) Career Longevity and the "Turn-Taking" Marriage

July 10, 2026Episode 36644 min

Ep. 366: Mikihiro Matsuoka on Japan's Inflation, BOJ Policy Shifts, and the Weak Yen Challenge

Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years , he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys , including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Inconvenient Mix" of Inflation Japan's Real Neutral Interest Rate The Case for Nominal GDP Targeting Consumption Tax: Regressive Relief? Wage Growth Divergence The Working Hours Trap Fiscal Dominance and Vulnerability The Enigma of Yen Weakness Work-from-Home and Birth Rates Erosion of the US Dollar's Premium The AI/Semiconductor "Vertical Jump" US vs. Japan: Labo u r Participation Trends

July 3, 2026Episode 36555 min

Ep. 365: Stefan Jansen on Agentic AI, ML Workflows, and the Evolution of Machine Learning for Trading

Stefan Jansen is the founder and CEO of Applied AI. He advises Fortune 500 companies, investment firms, and startups across industries on data & AI strategy, building data science teams, and developing end-to-end machine learning solutions. Before his current venture, he was a partner and managing director at an international investment firm, where he built the predictive analytics and investment research practice. He was also a senior executive at a global fintech company with operations in 15 markets, advised Central Banks in emerging markets, and consulted for the World Bank. In this podcast, we discuss: Defining AI as a Moving Target The Trading vs. Business Data Science Divide Synthetic Data and the "Fat Tail" Challenge Shapley Values: Turning Black Boxes Grey Agentic AI and Unstructured Data RAG, Provenance, and the Context Window Debate The "Alpha Factory" Workflow Reinforcement Learning (RL) for Execution, Not Prediction The Critical Role of Human Context Advice for the AI-Native Job Market

June 26, 2026Episode 3641 hr 5 min

Ep. 364: William Beach on the US Fiscal Precipice, Tax Reform, and AI's Impact on Labour

William W. Beach is the Senior Fellow in Economics at the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC) and the Coffin Fellow at the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation. Beach also serves on the UKG Workforce Institute Advisory Board. Prior to these appointments, Beach was the fifteenth Commissioner of Labor Statistics at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. He took up his duties there on March 28, 2019. Prior to joining BLS, Dr. Beach was vice president for policy research at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University from February of 2016 to March of 2019; and, prior to that served as the Chief Economist for the Senate Budget Committee, Republican Staff, from 2013 through early 2016. In this podcast, we will discuss: The "Fiscal Precipice" The "Crowd Out" Effect Social Drivers of Debt The "Undemocratic" Tax System The Social Security Countdown The Future of "Enhanced Labour" The Data Response Crisis Modernising Federal Statistics

June 19, 2026Episode 36352 min

Ep. 363: Martin Wolf on AI's Colossal Impact, Central Banking Risks, and the Democratic Recession

Martin Wolf is the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 ' for services to financial journalism ' . In this podcast, we disc uss: AI: The Ultimate General-Purpose Technology Market Complacency in the Middle East Jay Powell's "Superb" but Flawed Legacy The "Perverse" Risks of Kevin Warsh The UK's Productivity Puzzle and Brexit From "Democratic Recession" to Depression The "Graduate Trap" and Disaffected Youth Advice for the Next Generation