Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Hosted by Bilal Hafeez

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340

Latest episode

Oct 2026

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About the show

We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.

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60 recent

October 23, 2026Episode 38145 min

Ep. 381: Tomasz Nadrowski on Energy Chokepoints, Asymmetric Warfare, and Critical Minerals

Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world's largest gold producer. Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. He is fluent in seven languages and a regular contributor to Oxford Analytica. He combines deep industry knowledge with a strategic understanding of how resources, markets, and power intersect in today's shifting geopolitical landscape. He is also the host of the podcast Tyranny Today. In this podcast, we discuss: End of Pax Americana & Asymmetric Tech Vulnerability of Maritime Chokepoints The Sword Over the Shield (Wars of Attrition) Western Re-Industrialization & Refining Bottlenecks Rise of Western Hemisphere Energy Dominance China's Critical Mineral Valve & "Game of Chicken" Russian Gray-Zone Warfare in Europe AI as Human "Unburdening"

October 16, 2026Episode 38053 min

Ep. 380: Alex Edmans on Market Bubbles, Investor Biases, and the Madness of Markets

Alex Edmans is a Professor of Finance at London Business School and is one of the world's leading academics on company purpose, social value, and profit. Alex has a PhD from MIT as a Fulbright Scholar and was previously a tenured professor at Wharton and an investment banker at Morgan Stanley. In this podcast, we discuss: Amateur vs. Professional Behavioural Errors Direction Right, Speed Wrong in AI and Tech Bubbles The Limits of Contrarian Strategies Herding Mechanics and Social Network Traps Slow Uptake on Corporate Intangibles Subtle C-Suite Tells: AGMs and Corporate Jets Arithmetic Misreactions and Narrow Framing The Anchoring Trap & Disposition Bias Overconfidence in Amateur Stock-Picking Exploiting a Long Investment Horizon

October 9, 2026Episode 37952 min

Ep. 379: Paul Cavey on East Asia's AI Tech Boom, Semiconductor Exports, and Macro Dynamics

Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. In this podcast, we discuss: AI Hardware Demand & Regional Supply Chains Taiwan's Real GDP Expansion vs. Korea's Terms-of-Trade Shock Taiwan's Negative Real Interest Rates & Inflation Outlook East Asia's Resilience to Global Energy Shocks Bank of Korea Policy Hikes & Won FX Dynamics Japan's Fiscal Revenue Boom & Manufacturing Catch-Up BOJ Policy Path, Persistent Inflation, and Yen Weakness China's Property Slump & Incremental Credit Easing China's Auto Export Surge & Sovereign Tech Stack Sovereign Balance Sheet Divergence & CGB Market Dynamics

October 2, 2026Episode 37849 min

Ep. 378: Apurv Jain on Alternative Data, Real-Time Macro Nowcasting, and AI's Economic Role

Apurv Jain is the Founder and CEO of MacroX , a San Francisco-based startup building a real-time measurement layer for the global economy using alternative data. Before MacroX , Apurv built machine-learning investing systems at Microsoft, traded FX derivatives at Deutsche Bank, and worked at Bridgewater Associates. His research experience spans Microsoft Research and Harvard Business School, with publications and invited talks across academia, central banks, and global forums including Davos and the World AI Summit. He holds degrees from Georgia Tech and the University of Chicago and is passionate about mixed martial arts. In this podcast, we discuss: Official Data Lags & Declining Survey Response Rates 1,000+ Alternative Data Pipelines for Macro State Mapping Real-Time Worker Bargaining Power vs. Lagged Wage Metrics Multimodal AI: CNNs, BERT, and Targeted LLM Workflows Nowcasting Lead: Gaining 2–3 Months Ahead of Official Prints Next-Generation Nowcasting vs. Atlanta Fed GDP Models Why the 2023 Yield Curve Recession Signal Failed Current US Economic State & The "K-Shaped" Consumer Portfolio Integration for Fundamental & Systematic Investor s

September 25, 2026Episode 37748 min

Ep. 377: Jay Pelosky on the Tripolar World, the Spending Super Cycle, and the Global Earnings Boom

Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy . In this podcast, we discuss: The Tripolar World & Spending Super Cycle US Valuati on "Haircut" vs. Non-US Bargains Reframing Bearish Narratives & High Nominal Growth European Plays: Financial Consolidation, Spain, and Poland Emerging Markets, China's Tech/Biotech, and Brazil Rate Cuts Energy Security, Clean Energy Adoption, and Battery Plays US Midterm Outlook & Policy Incoherence Year-End "Face Ripper" Rally & Answering AI ROI

September 18, 2026Episode 37657 min

Ep. 376: Rory Johnston on $100 Oil, the Refined Product Crisis, and China's Swing Power

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: $100 Brent and Historic Backwardation The Global Refined Product Crisis Hormuz "Shuttle Trade" and War Insurance Costs The Red Sea Chokepoint and Houthi Threat Russian Refinery Attacks and Fuel Export Bans China's Import Cuts and Hidden SPR Release China's Potential Winter Refining Bailout US Midterm Dilemmas and Export Ban Risks India's LPG Crisis and Offshore SPR Deals US Equity in Venezuela and Heavy Crude Spreads Canada's Westward Pipeline Push

September 11, 2026Episode 37520 min

Ep. 375: Bilal on How to Use AI to Turbocharge Your Market Analysis

In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles. Some key points include: Machines Speaking Human The "CLEAR" Prompting Framework Gold-Standard Human Evaluation Converting Prompts to "Skills" Custom Session Memory & Feedback Loops Delegating to "Co-Work" Agents Reliable Market Analysis via RAG

September 4, 2026Episode 37433 min

Ep. 374: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on the K-Shaped US Economy, AI Supply Shocks, and Fed Hikes

Dominique Dwor- Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds , including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labour Puzzle The Imported AI Capex Illusion Chips as the New Oil Supply Shock The K-Shaped Consumer & GFC-Level Delinquency The Fragile Savings Rate Cushion The Return of FOMC Dissension The Waller Swing Vote & the 2026 Rate Path The 2027 AI De-escalation Surprise

August 28, 2026Episode 37350 min

Ep. 373: Jon Turek on the 'Owl' Fed, the US Treasury's Bond Buybacks, and AI Capex Durability

Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore Capital. In this podcast, we discuss: The Substack Divide of Equities vs. Macro The Buy-Side Paradox of PM Asymmetry and Pod Reality The "Owl" Fed and Political Optimisation over Conviction The Trillion-Dollar AI Fiscal Program The Death of the 2010s Savings Glut Treasury Buybacks and "Whack-A-Mole" Markets Europe's Impending China Tariff Shock The Simmering Geopolitical In-Between for Oil

August 21, 2026Episode 37255 min

Ep. 372: Branko Milanović on China's Rise, the Shift to National Market Liberalism, and Inequality

Branko is a research professor at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality at the City University of New York. He received his Ph D from the University of Belgrade in 1987 and served as lead economist in the World Bank's Research Department for almost 20 years, leaving to write his book on global income inequality, Worlds Apart . He later worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, the University of Maryland, Johns Hopkins University , All Souls College in Oxford, and Universidad Carlos III in Madrid . Branko's main area of work is income inequality. He is the author of several books – the most recent one being The Great Global Transformation . In this podcast, we discuss : The Shift to National Market Liberalism The Geopolitical and Personal Impact of China The Rise of " Homoplutia " The "Folksy Elite" and Meritocratic Ideology India's Alternative Development Model Europe's Strategic and Economic Paradox The Policy Dilemma of the "Elephant Chart" Elite Multiplication and Youth Anxiety

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