HilltopTalks: Politics & Finance with Tom Kozlik

42. The Cost of Cash Basis Reporting and Public Debt Management with Harris’ Justin Marlowe

In this episode of Hilltop Talks , HilltopSecurities’ Tom Kozlik speaks with Justin Marlowe , Research Professor and Director of the Center for Municipal Finance at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. They discuss the Center’s 10th anniversary and its future, the real costs of non-GAAP financial reporting, changing demand in the municipal bond market, Marlowe’s new book expected in early 2027, and best practices for public debt management. They also explain why, as Professor Marlowe puts it, “a few basis points can make a big difference.”

41. U.S. Federal Debt and the Rising Cost of Financing America

With federal debt surpassing $40 trillion and debt held by the public reaching 100% of GDP, how did the U.S. arrive at this point, and what are the implications for taxpayers, investors, and policymakers? In this episode of Hilltop Talks , HilltopSecurities’ Tom Kozlik sits down with Marc Goldwein, Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, to discuss the nation's fiscal outlook and the growing cost of financing America's future. Key questions discussed: • How do rising deficits and debt affect inflation, interest rates, and economic growth? • What risks are associated with a potential federal debt spiral? • Why are Social Security and Medicare financing challenges becoming more urgent? • What policy options could put the nation's fiscal trajectory on a more sustainable path?

40. Not Your Typical Muni, Inside Energy Prepay Bonds

Energy prepay bonds have become one of the fastest-growing sectors in the municipal market. In this episode of Hilltop Talks, Tom Kozlik sits down with CreditSights' Patrick Luby to break down how these unique financings work, why issuance has surged in recent years, and what investors need to understand about their structure, risks, ratings, and portfolio implications. Key questions discussed: What are energy prepay bonds and how do they work? Why has energy prepay bond issuance increased so significantly in recent years? How are these transactions structured and how do cash flows move through the deal? What makes these bonds different from traditional municipal utility bonds? Tune in for valuable insights on a rapidly evolving corner of the muni market and the role energy prepays are playing in today's energy and public finance landscape.

39. The Cost of Powering the Future: Public Power, Data Centers, and the Strain on the Grid

In the latest Hilltop Talks episode, Tom Kozlik speaks with Rachel Cortez from Moody’s Ratings about the growing strain on U.S. power systems and the rising costs of electricity. Their discussion highlights how increasing demand—driven by data centers, electrification, and economic growth—combined with policy and infrastructure challenges, is reshaping the energy landscape. Both public and investor-owned utilities are facing mounting costs, political pressure, and regulatory scrutiny, suggesting that higher electricity bills and ongoing infrastructure investment will remain a reality for years to come. In this episode: · The impact of data centers and AI on rising U.S. electricity costs · Key drivers of increased demand and how electricity rates are determined · How utilities are managing rapid growth in data center energy needs · The role of carbon transition and net-zero policies in shaping electricity bills · How data centers are influencing renewable energy goals and timelines · Emerging technologies that could help address energy and affordability challenges · Differences in impact between investor-owned utilities (IOUs) and public power providers

38. The Oil Shock and the New Energy Reality

37. Escalation in the Middle East Raises Cyber Risk for U.S. Public Finance

In the latest Hilltop Talks , Tom Kozlik, Head of Public Policy and Municipal Strategy at HilltopSecurities, sits down with Omid Rahmani, Associate Director of U.S. Public Finance, Cyber Risk at Fitch Ratings, to examine how a more volatile geopolitical environment is raising the stakes for municipalities and other public entities. From critical infrastructure exposure to vendor dependence, AI-enabled threat acceleration, and the limits of cyber insurance, this conversation makes one thing clear: public entities are not on the sidelines of cyber conflict. They are in it. 🔍 In this episode: • Why municipalities are viewed as legitimate targets in modern cyber conflict • How disruptions to water, energy, and other essential services could ripple across public finance • Why AI is making the threat landscape faster and harder to defend • What “act of war” exclusions mean for cyber insurance coverage • Why governance, business continuity, and cyber hygiene now matter more than ever As Rahmani explains, this is no longer just a technology problem. It is a risk management, governance, and resilience challenge for the entire public sector.

36. Runways, Roads, and Ports: Connection, Credit, and Municipal Transportation

When most people think about transportation, they think about flights, highways, or trains. What they don’t see is the $4.4 trillion municipal bond market powering the infrastructure behind it all. In this episode of HilltopTalks , Tom Kozlik sits down with Mohammed Murad, Head of Municipal Credit Research at PT Asset Management, to explore how municipal bonds finance the systems that keep the economy moving. From airports to toll roads to seaports, they break down: • Why municipal bonds differ from corporates—and why that matters • How transportation became a cornerstone of public finance • The real-world impact of projects like O’Hare’s runway modernization • Key risks—from geopolitics and fuel prices to rising capital costs • How analysts evaluate credit in a complex, evolving environment 🔍 As Murad puts it, “it’s all about the story”—and understanding how each credit holds up under pressure.

35. The Importance of Federal Reserve Independence — What Happens Before May?

In the latest episode of HilltopTalks , HilltopSecurities’ Tom Kozlik sits down with Scott McIntyre, Co-Head of Investment Management for HilltopSecurities Asset Management, to examine growing political pressure on the Federal Reserve—and why the perception of independence matters just as much as policy itself. As scrutiny intensifies around the Fed’s decision-making, credibility, leadership, and institutional guardrails are increasingly in focus. In this conversation, Tom and Scott discuss: Why threats to Fed independence are being taken seriously by markets Chairman Powell’s recent response—and why it reassured investors Historical examples of political pressure on the Fed, from Arthur Burns (Fed Chair under Nixon) and Paul Volcker (Fed Chair under Reagan) to today How credibility shapes monetary policy outcomes What potential future Fed leadership could signal for markets Scott offers clear perspective on separating real signals from noise as politics and monetary policy collide in an unusually public way.

34. Discount Rates Up, Liabilities Down: Pensions Are Calmer. The Risk Just Moved

Pensions Look Stronger on Paper. The Risk Just Moved. Discount rate assumptions are changing, liabilities are falling—and yet the underlying risks haven’t disappeared. They’ve just shifted. In this episode, HilltopSecurities’ Tom Kozlik sits down with Moody’s Tom Aaron to unpack what public finance leaders need to understand about today’s pension landscape. 🔎 Topics include: • Why rising discount rates can mask long-term vulnerabilities • How market volatility is reshaping pension risk exposure • The importance of discipline during periods of perceived strength • What Moody’s is watching as we enter 2026 👉 Don’t miss this expert-level discussion on one of the most consequential drivers of state and local credit conditions.

33. Insights from HilltopSecurities' 2025 Public Finance Leaders Survey

🎧 New on the HilltopTalks podcast! Yaffa Rattner, Head of Municipal Credit, and Tom Kozlik, Head of Public Policy & Municipal Strategy, unpack the findings of the HilltopSecurities 2025 Public Finance Leaders Survey—a pulse check on what over 1,000 leaders across the U.S. are prioritizing right now. 💡 What you’ll hear: • Why budget pressure and labor shortages top the list • How leaders are approaching AI, cybersecurity, and ESG • A surprising perspective on crypto, climate risk, and infrastructure planning • What decision-makers say they need more support with in 2025 Listen in as Yaffa and Tom connect the survey results to the broader challenges—and opportunities—facing municipalities today. HilltopTalks Episode #33: "Insights from HilltopSecurities' 2025 Public Finance Leaders Survey"