Geopolitics Decanted is a podcast featuring geopolitical analysis and in-depth expert interviews on topics ranging from War in Ukraine, Great Power Competition with China, changing nature of warfare, sanctions and export controls, semiconductors and cybersecurity. This is a podcast for people who care about the details and are seeking a comprehensive understanding of global issues, not just the sound bytes. It is hosted by Dmitri Alperovitch, Chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator (www.silverado.org), a Washington DC-based non-profit with a mission to promote prosperity and global competitiveness for America and its allies by accelerating bipartisan strategic, economic and technological policy solutions.
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March 23, 2026Episode 7943 min
How to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Three weeks into the US-Israel war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — and reopening it may be far harder and slower than many may realize. Dmitri Alperovitch talks to RADM Mark Montgomery (Ret.), who has transited the strait 25+ times and lays out what it will actually take, why Kharg Island is a distraction, and the possible uncomfortable timeline for return to normalcy.
00:00 Introduction
01:09 Threat Environment in the Strait of Hormuz
03:37 Military Strategies for Reopening the Strait
05:19 Cruise Missile Threat
11:43 Tackling the Mine Problem
19:57 Convoy Operations in the Persian Gulf
26:43 Kharg Island
31:41 How long to return of normal traffic in the Gulf?
36:14 The Endgame 42:20 The Houthi problem
November 15, 2025Episode 7841 min
What Happens if the Supreme Court Kills Trump’s Tariffs?
Dmitri Alperovitch and Silverado trade experts Sarah Stewart and John Corrigan examine the implications of the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump's reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs. They explore the stakes of this constitutional challenge, including whether the government might have to refund the substantial tariff revenues already collected and how the administration could respond should the Court rule against them.
00:00 Introduction
02:16 Types of Tariffs Currently in Place
12:13 Supreme Court Timeline and the Issue of Refunds
14:33 Alternative Tariff Options
22:14 A New Weapon for the Trump Administration: Section 338 Tariffs
31:14 Back to the Future With an Old Tool: Section 421 Tariffs
38:14 Why Countries Shouldn't Rush to Celebrate Potential End of IAEPA Tariffs
October 31, 2025Episode 7723 min
Why The China Trade Truce Is Unlikely to Last
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sarah Stewart, CEO at Silverado and former senior US trade negotiator, about the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. They discuss the details of the agreement reached and why it is a temporary trade truce at best.
00:00 Introduction
01:13 US Objectives for the Trump-Xi Meeting
08:43 The Rare Earths Truce
11:29 A Temporary Truce, Not a Deal
12:31 China's Historical Record of Delivering on Their Commitments
16:11 Why This Truce Is Unlikely to Last a Year
17:39 Deals With the Rest of the World
18:45 Strategic Implications of the Malaysia Trade Deal
20:27 No Concessions on AI Chips Export
October 22, 2025Episode 7643 min
Keeping Russian Economy Afloat: Kremlin's Economic High Wire Act
Is Russia close to an economic collapse? Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Chris Weafer, an expert on the Russian economy, to assess how long the Kremlin can keep this high wire act going.
00:00 Introduction
01:17 Current State of the Russian Economy
10:02 Budget Challenges and Military Spending
19:29 Impact of Oil Prices and Sanctions
30:10 Economic Headwinds
32:20 Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries
August 5, 2025Episode 7548 min
Why Drones Can’t Replace Traditional Firepower
Dmitri Alperovitch talks to air power expert Justin Bronk about why it's a bad idea for Western militaries to follow Ukraine's lead and overly invest in production of small drones like FPVs and other loitering munitions. They also dive into best counter-drone strategies, as well as the implications of Ukraine's Operation SpiderWeb and Israel's forward deployed drones neutralizing Iranian air defenses during Operations Rising Lion for strategies to protect aircraft and air-defenses against such threats.
00:00 Introduction
00:28 Why NATO Should Not Follow Ukraine Into Overreliance on Drones
09:22 Small FPVs vs Other Drone Types
15:42 Best Strategy for Effective Anti Drone Defense
26:06 Would Ukraine Be Better Off Spending Money on Conventional Systems?
28:01 Orchestration of Combined Arms Warfare
29:11 Does Ukraine Need More FPVs or Artillery?
31:33 Can America Afford to Invest in Both Small Drones and Conventional Systems?
34:06 Options for Neutralizing Air Defenses
36:53 The State of Russian Air Defenses
38:53 How to Protect Air Forces Against Operation SpiderWeb-style drone tactics
44:35 Assessing the Efficacy of Ukrainian F-16s
NATO Should Not Replace Traditional Firepower with ‘Drones’: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/nato-should-not-replace-traditional-firepower-drones
July 2, 2025Episode 7446 min
Why America's Nuclear Deterrence Strategy Needs to Change
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Vipin Narang, a former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, a portfolio which includes U.S nuclear weapons employment strategy, about why we are now entering the New Nuclear Age and the urgent changes that the United States has to make to its nuclear deterrence posture and strategy. They also debate the utility of counterforce vs countervalue nuclear targeting approaches and how believable the U.S. extended nuclear deterrence is to allies.
00:00 Introduction
00:57 Israel-Iran War
11:47 CAT5 Hurricane of Nuclear Threats
13:50 Is China Preparing to Fight a Nuclear War?
18:04 Debating Counterforce vs. Countervalue Nuclear Targeting Strategies
24:32 Is Nuclear Extended Deterrence Believable to Allies?
40:02 Is Pakistan Building ICBMs to Target the United States?
42:44 Does America Need Mobile ICBM Launchers?
How to Survive the New Nuclear Age by Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/how-survive-new-nuclear-age-narang-vaddi
June 24, 2025Episode 7337 min
Assessing the Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Program
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear nonproliferation expert, to assess the damage that has been inflicted upon the Iranian nuclear program over the course of the past 11 days and potential for reconstitution.
00:00 Introduction
00:49 Assessment of Damage to Each Part of the Iranian Nuclear Program
07:34 What is the Level of Difficulty of Reconstitution?
09:53 Did Iran Evacuate Fordow?
11:55 The Importance of the 400kg of Highly Enriched Uranium issue
12:49 Where Is the New Secret Enrichment Facility?
13:58 What Are the Nonproliferation Lessons From This War?
16:26 Impact of the Assassinations of Nuclear Scientists
18:16 Capabilities of Iran's Ballistic Missiles
20:27 Origins of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Designs
22:46 Is There a Legitimate Need for Iran to Have Uranium Enrichment?
24:45 Was The War Worth It?
32:31 What Will Iran Do Next?
June 19, 2025Episode 7228 min
The Israel-Iran War: Possibilities and the Dangers of Overreach
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Israeli Gen Amos Yadlin (Ret.), perhaps the world's only person who has participated in the destruction of three Middle Eastern nuclear weapons programs: first, as an F-16 pilot in 1981 against Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak, as Head of Military Intelligence in 2007 against Syrian nuclear reactor Al Kibar, and in various IDF roles for the last nearly 20 years planning the current operation against Iran.
00:00 Introduction
01:29 Strategic Objectives of the Operation Against Iran
07:30 How to Deal With Fordow Enrichment Facility
08:16 Shocking Success
11:20 Danger of Euphoria
14:08 Where Are the Iranian Proxies?
15:40 Threat to the Strait of Hormuz
18:00 Khamenei's Psychological State and Strategic Decisions
20:56 Likelihood of Regime Change
23:38 Implications for the Broader Middle East
January 29, 2025Episode 711 hr 20 min
Why North Korea Is Planning a Second Korean War and How to Stop It
Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Andrei Lankov, one of the west’s foremost experts on North Korea, and Sergey Radchenko, a leading Cold War historian, for a deep dive into North Korea. They discuss the threats posed by North Korea's nuclear program and possibility of a new war, the chances of a Trump-brokered peace deal with Kim Jong Un, and the nature of North Korea’s relationships with China, Russia, and Iran. Andrei also offers rare insights into daily life under the regime, its surveillance state, hackers and IT workers, political succession, and long-term foreign policy ambitions.
00:00 Introduction
01:02 Can Trump Get a Peace Deal Done With North Korea?
15:19 Does Kim Jong Un Need America as an Enemy?
18:36 Chances of a Second Korean War and Nuclear Weapons Use
22:58 China's Frustrations With North Korea
27:17 China's Concerns of Nuclear Proliferation Across Asia
29:49 Nature of Transactional Relationships Between North Korea and China/Russia
35:28 Iran-North Korea Relationship
40:16 Why Do North Korean Soldiers Commit Suicide Rather Than Surrender?
44:52 Life in North Korean GULAGs
47:04 The Intricacies of Societal Surveillance in North Korea
51:21 Technology Use and Intranet Access in North Korea
54:24 North Korean Hackers and IT Workers
01:02:40 Female Empowerment in North Korea
01:15:21 Does North Korea Have the World's Most Effective Foreign Policy?
Dmitri and Sergey's NYT article about the potential for a peace deal with North Korea: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/29/opinion/us-north-korea-china-russia-axis.html
January 3, 2025Episode 701 hr 2 min
The One Factor That Could Crash the Russian Economy
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Russian economy expert Chris Weafer about the state of the Russian economy in 2025. They talk about inflation and its impact on people and business, why the ruble is collapsing, which sanctions have been the most impactful, and the one thing that could potentially trigger a crash and give Ukraine leverage to negotiate an acceptable peace deal
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