Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Hosted by Carson Investment Research

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197

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Jun 2026

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EN-US

About the show

This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team. The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services.

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June 10, 202653 min

Live from Chicago with Jim Bianco and Jeff Kilburg (FvF Ep. 191)

In Episode 191 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, go live from Chicago with Jeff Kilburg, Founder and CEO & CIO at KKM Financial, and Jim Bianco, President at Bianco Research, for a wide-ranging conversation on where markets stand now and what could matter next. The episode centers on the bull market’s concentration in AI and large-cap tech, the durability of the rally, the role of active management, and why diversification may need to look different than it did a decade ago.The conversation also digs into earnings momentum, cross-ownership in AI, the impact of higher bond yields on long-duration assets, and whether software is being transformed or disrupted by AI.From bubbles and breadth to bond yields, oil shocks, and portfolio construction, the episode connects live market commentary to the forces shaping returns underneath the surface.Jump to:0:00 — Live Crowd and Big Questions1:48 — What A Bubble Really Means6:00 — Earnings Momentum and AI Optimism12:35 — Circular Ownership and AI ROI16:05 — AI Replaces Software or Adds Cost21:55 — 60/40 Is Not Dead Just Different30:10 — Return Stacking and Better Diversifiers36:30 — Oil, Inflation Volatility, and Bonds41:40 — Concentration, Active Picks, And Dispersion47:20 — Hard-Won Advice and Closing ThanksConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

June 3, 20261 hr 6 min

Talking SpaceX IPO (FvF Ep. 190)

In Episode 190 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the SpaceX IPO and what it could mean for indexes, mega-cap weights, and the next phase of the AI trade. They’re joined by Blake Anderson, Director of Portfolio Management at Carson Group, for a wide-ranging conversation on market breadth, small caps, tech leadership, Google’s AI spending, software, and the growing influence of data centers and high-quality cash flows in today’s market.The episode also digs into the latest rally in stocks, the role of FOMO, the state of the bond market, and why this bull market may still have more room to run even as leadership narrows.From IPO mechanics and index inclusion rules to the economics of AI infrastructure, the conversation connects the market’s biggest headlines to the harder data underneath.Key Takeaways:The S&P 500 is up nine consecutive weeks. When it has gained more than 15% in April and May combined, June has never been lower and the rest of the year averages nearly 19% gains.Small caps are up 18% year-to-date and it seems like nobody is talking about it. A third of those returns trace back to three companies, all tied to data centers and AI infrastructure.SpaceX chose the Nasdaq, and Nasdaq changed its rules. Mega-cap companies can now be assessed for index inclusion just 15 days post-IPO instead of waiting six months.At a $2 trillion valuation against $19 billion in 2025 revenue, SpaceX carries a price-to-sales ratio above 90. Historically, IPOs with price-to-sales above 40 average a 94% first-day pop, but a negative 45% three-year return.A deal disclosed in the SpaceX S1 could see Anthropic pay up to $15 billion annually for data center capacity, nearly matching SpaceX's entire 2025 revenue in a single contract.Google is raising $80 billion in equity and has cut buybacks to zero. AI infrastructure spending has moved from optional to existential, with payoff timing still uncertain.Jump to:0:00 — Welcome and the SpaceX question1:19 — Markets rip higher after the spring rally10:33 — Breadth, small caps, and hidden leaders14:10 — FOMO signals and the bubble check15:59 — Blake joins on tech and rates20:48 — Google funds AI data centers26:22 — Software’s AI reset and data moats29:13 — SpaceX IPO filing and index rule changes43:01 — IPO stats, valuation risk, and consumer wrapConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#SpaceXIPO #FactsVsFeelings #investing #stockmarket #AI #techinvesting #IPO #smallcaps #SP500 #bullmarket #NVIDIA #Starlink #Anthropic #OpenAI #marketanalysis #portfoliomanagement #indexfunds #WallStreet #fintech #CarsonGroup

May 27, 20261 hr 9 min

Deal or No Deal (FvF Ep. 189)

In Episode 189 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down the disconnect between how people feel about the economy and what the hard data is actually showing. They connect the dots between oil prices, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and why markets may not be reacting to geopolitical headlines the way many investors expect.It’s a real-time look at the K-shaped economy: tighter budgets at the bottom, resilient spending at the top.Ryan and Sonu walk through stretched momentum after an eight-week rally, sector rotation beneath the surface, and another massive earnings season. They also explain why private AI investments are quietly becoming a meaningful contributor to public company profits, something many investors still aren’t fully accounting for.Key Takeaways:Oil prices, Treasury yields, and inflation expectations remain tightly connected even when markets appear calm.Consumer behavior is splitting across income levels, reinforcing the idea of a K-shaped economy.Soft data like sentiment surveys continues diverging from hard data like earnings and employment.Earnings, buyback activity, and AI exposure are reshaping market leadership.Market momentum remains strong, but sector leadership underneath the surface keeps rotating.Bond markets may be the biggest force shaping Fed expectations and investor behavior goingJump to:3:06 — Strait Tensions and Oil Prices6:41 — The All-Electric Ferrari Debate8:39 — Consumer Strain Signals13:15 — Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Lows21:37 — Home Water Leaks and Insurance Headaches25:18 — Sector Breadth and Market Leadership33:15 — Momentum Crowding and the Win Streak37:41 —Earnings and Buybacks45:01 — Private AI Valuations Inside Public Earnings48:13 —Health Data and AI Coaching50:44 — Chicago Live Show Details54:00 — Grading Powell and New Fed Risks1:05:12 — Fed Hike Odds and Week AheadConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

May 20, 202654 min

Welcome to the Party, Mr. Warsh (FvF Ep. 188)

In Episode 188 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, welcome new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the only way they know how: with data, context, and zero sugarcoating.When Jerome Powell took over in February 2018, the Dow dropped 4.6% on his first day, the worst debut of any Fed chair in modern memory. This time, it’s not the equity market doing the hazing. It’s the bond market. The 30-year Treasury yield sits above 5% for the first time since 2007, and Japan's yields just hit levels not seen since the 1990s. Ryan and Sonu explain why the dynamics that once pushed foreign money into Treasuries are quietly reversing and what that means for U.S. investors.From there, Sonu walks through industrial production data that almost nobody is talking about. Manufacturing is running at nearly 5% annualized. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms. This is hard data, not a survey, and it runs directly counter to the narrative that the economy is softening.Then comes earnings. With 91% of S&P 500 companies reported, earnings growth is running at 27% against expectations of 13%. Communication services, expected to be down nearly 4%, came in up roughly 40%. The consumer is holding up, too, with retail sales running at 13% annualized and 95.2% of all household debt paid on time per the New York Fed.The episode closes with a look at what to watch: NVIDIA earnings, FOMC minutes, and a bond market both hosts are keeping a very close eye on.Key Takeaways:The bond market is testing Kevin Warsh the same way equity markets tested every Fed chair before him, and the dynamics driving yields higher are not going away quickly.AI is showing up in the hard data, not just stock prices. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms.S&P 500 growth came in at 27% against a 13% estimate during earnings season. Communication services swung from an expected decline of nearly 4% to a gain of roughly 40%.The two-year Treasury yield above the Fed funds rate signals the market believes the Fed is behind the curve. Rate cut calls from the sell side are, in Sonu's words, a John McEnroe moment.The S&P 500 is up seven consecutive weeks, gaining over 16% during that stretch. One year after prior streaks of this magnitude, the market has never been lower and is up 16% on average.Jump to:0:00 — Welcome and Who's Running the Fed?6:10 — Bonds Are Testing the New Fed Chair13:05 — Manufacturing Heats Up and AI Shows Up in Hard Data21:40 — Japan Sparks a Global Yield Reprice34:55 — Portfolio Moves on Duration and Cash43:55 — Earnings and AI Spending49:20 — Consumer Strength, Retail Sales, and Final ThoughtsConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

May 13, 202657 min

Party Like It's 1999 (FvF Ep. 187)

In Episode 187 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, ask the question on every investor's mind: Does today's market feel like 1999?The episode opens with genuine nostalgia. Ryan recalls tripling his play money on Sycamore and Juniper Networks before losing it all on margin. Sonu remembers 75% of his engineering class having job offers by August of senior year. The vibes were very different then.From there, Ryan and Sonu dig into the numbers raising eyebrows. Semiconductors now make up roughly 22% of the S&P 500, up from around 6% at last April's lows. A telecom ETF built around AI infrastructure is up 44% year to date. These are not boring numbers. But beneath all that heat, sentiment is in the toilet, breadth is holding up, and credit spreads are making new cycle lows in ways that look nothing like the quiet deterioration that began in 1998. Ryan and Sonu make the case that this is not 1999. Not yet, anyway.Then Sonu drops inflation data that deserves a second read. Computer software and accessories, where AI token and cloud spending shows up in CPI, is running at an 83% annualized pace over the last three months. The Fed has a real problem. Ryan and Sonu walk through why stable jobs plus hard inflation plus a dovish Fed still adds up to bullish for equities, before closing out with a stronger-than-expected labor market update, a preview of the US-China trade meeting, and a record-breaking Uber ride from O'Hare to Cedar Rapids.Key Takeaways:Semiconductor stocks and AI infrastructure names are posting numbers that feel frothy on the surface, but earnings growth and genuine demand provide far more fundamental support than the dot-com era ever did.The NYSE advance decline line just hit an all-time high. In 1998, it peaked 18 months before the market did. That divergence is not happening today.AI-related inflation is real and showing up in the data. Computer software in PCE is running nearly 60% annualized over the last six months. This is not just an energy or tariff story.The S&P 500 has posted six consecutive weekly gains totaling over 16%, the second best such streak on record. One year later, the market has historically been up 17% on average.The labor market is quietly stabilizing. Blue-collar sectors that were bleeding jobs in 2024 are turning around, and prime-age employment sits at its highest ratio since before the 2008 financial crisis.The longer the Fed delays action on inflation, the greater the Volcker-style risk in 2027 or 2028. The AI capex boom has driven roughly 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters. When that fades, the math changes.Jump to:0:00 — Welcome and the 1999 Question2:00 — College Memories and Dot Com Vibes6:20 — New Highs with Rotten Sentiment10:30 — Frothy Semis and Leverage Lessons15:50 — AI Infrastructure Trade and Sector Gaps22:40 — Breadth, Credit Spreads, and Bull Signals33:10 — CPI Heat from Tariffs and AI Bottlenecks41:50 — Fed Risks and When Booms Break49:40 — Payrolls Update and Blue-Collar Turn54:20 — China Trade Talk, Travel Chaos, and WrapConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

May 6, 202654 min

Talking 'Sell in May' with Jeff Hirsch (FvF Ep. 186)

In Episode 186 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by a genuine industry legend, Jeff Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, now celebrating its 60th year. And yes, Jeff is also turning 60 this month.The conversation starts where May always takes us. "Sell in May and Go Away." Jeff immediately sets the record straight. It's not about selling everything on May 1. It's about repositioning, spring cleaning your portfolio, tightening stops, and getting ready for the historically weakest six months of the year. He walks through how MACD signals layered on seasonal patterns sharpen entries and exits, which sectors shine during the weak months, and why the Nasdaq's growing weight in the S&P 500 has stretched that weak window further into June.From there, the episode covers the Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth-year tailwinds, and how the midterm-year setup historically creates one of the best buying opportunities on the calendar. Jeff makes a candid near-term call on gold, makes the case for utilities and staples during the weak months, and explains why the mutual fund October 31 deadline is the true engine behind all of it.Oh, and Sonu's birthday is May 4. So officially: reposition on Sonu's birthday, go sober on Ryan's.Key Takeaways:"Sell in May" is widely misunderstood. The real strategy is repositioning, not abandoning the market entirely.Jeff uses MACD crossover signals layered on seasonal patterns to time entries (on or after October 1) and exits (on or after April 1 for the S&P 500, June 1 for Nasdaq).The Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth year of the decade, and the sixth year of the presidency all point toward a strong year. Jeff's target range is 8% to 12%, with 15% possible if geopolitical risks resolve.Utilities (XLU) and consumer staples are Jeff's preferred sector plays for the weak six months, with added tailwinds from data center electricity demand and dividends.Gold looks like a near-term top after a massive run. Jeff is watching for a seasonal re-entry opportunity in July or August.The real driver behind October seasonality is the mutual fund October 31 fiscal year-end deadline, which creates institutional churn, window dressing, and the conditions for the classic "bear killer" October bounce.Jump to:0:00 — Welcome and Meet Jeff Hirsch1:37 — Sell in May Reframed6:25 — MACD Signals and Seasonality10:55 — Sector Plays for the Weak Months14:55 — The Trump Cycle and Midterm Choppiness22:45 — Why Seasonal Patterns Exist35:05 — International Ideas and Cash Choices44:05 — Dead Indicators and the 401(k) Flow Shift50:10 — Gold, Grains, Options, and Calendar Quirks53:05 — Where to Follow Jeff and WrapConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enConnect with Jeff:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-hirsch-8285358/• X: https://x.com/AlmanacTrader?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

April 29, 202642 min

Still Searching For Buffett (FvF Ep. 185)

In Episode 185 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are recording live from Omaha at PodPony's studio during Carson's Q2 board meeting. They make a pilgrimage to the McDonald's on 40th and Dodge that Warren Buffett reportedly frequents. They got the scoop on his usual order, but did Buffett himself show up? You'll have to listen to find out!On the markets side, Ryan breaks down why the current secular bull market started in 2013 and what history says happens after you're up 100%, which is exactly where this bull market now stands from the October 2022 lows. The S&P just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, and the data on "sell in May" may surprise you. Ryan's numbers show May has been up 12 of the last 13 years.The episode also covers the oil picture with WTI back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation still unresolved, the consumer sentiment disconnect between how people feel and what retail sales are actually showing, and the Fed outlook heading into tomorrow's decision. Sonu explains why Kevin Walsh is leaning on trimmed mean PCE to justify rate cuts, and Ryan calls him out for putting everyone to sleep. Gold gets a candid look too, still in a long-term bull market but stretched after a massive run, with real rate pressure creating some short-term headwinds.Key Takeaways:The S&P 500 just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, and the bull market has officially crossed the 100% gain mark from the October 2022 lows.Forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, the highest ever recorded.Ryan makes the case that the current secular bull market began in 2013 and explains what history says comes next.Sell in May is largely a myth. May has been up 12 of the last 13 years.WTI is back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation has not resolved the way markets hoped.Consumer sentiment remains near historic lows, but retail sales tell a very different story.Gold is still in a long-term bull market but faces short-term headwinds from real rate pressure after an extended run.Jump to:0:00 - Live from Omaha Setup 1:59 - All-Time Highs and Oil Shock 6:10 - Why Sentiment Feels So Low 11:27 - Board Meeting and Real Money 13:22 - Will AI Kill Investing Alpha? 16:09 - When Secular Bull Markets Start 21:00 - Global Breakouts and Gold Debate 22:36 - Rates, Inflation, and the Fed Shift 26:49 - Trimmed Mean PCE Explained 29:49 - Sell in May: Stats Check 32:58 - Bull Market Up 100% — Now What? 36:22 - McDonald's Hunt for Buffett 41:33 - Wrap-Up and DisclosuresConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

April 28, 20261 hr 2 min

Social Hour With Josh Schafer and Talmon Smith (Social Hour Ep. 4)

The Social Hour is back for its 4th episode — and this one covered a lot of ground. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the financial media world: Josh Schafer, Newsletter Editor and Investing Personality at Barron's Investor Circle, and Talmon Smith, Economics Reporter at The New York Times.Fair warning: Ryan's 140-pound Great Pyrenees may or may not have been snoring in the background, Talmon showed up fashionably late on Central Time, and somehow the conversation ended with a tease about something big coming to Omaha. But in between? Plenty of substance.They dig into semiconductors ripping 18 days in a row, the Intel comeback story nobody saw coming, and why AI infrastructure names from chips to optical networking to data center builders keep defying expectations. Josh breaks down what's actually driving the earnings surprise story, why FOMO is back in the market, and what the tailwinds (or lack thereof) look like for the back half of the year. Talmon brings the macro and human side of things, connecting the dots between surging corporate margins, collapsing consumer sentiment, and what affordability really means for everyday Americans. Sonu drops some eye-opening services inflation data that reframes the whole "inflation is solved" narrative.Key Takeaways:Semis on a historic run: The SOX up 18 consecutive days with broad breadth, not just NvidiaIntel's surprise: Earnings estimates doubled overnight and the turnaround thesis is gaining tractionAI infrastructure trade alive and well: Telecom ETF names like Iridium and Lumentum up 100%+ YTDEarnings boom: 26% EPS growth across 25% of S&P 500 reporters and this isn't just Big TechConsumer sentiment vs. stock market: Why both can be true at the same timeServices inflation running hot: Personal care, dental, and vehicle rentals all well above targetThe Fed's hands are tied: Labor market steady, inflation sticky, no clear path to cutsGDP watch: Real GDP print incoming, brace for noise and focus on nominalJosh Schafer and Talmon Smith are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.Jump to:0:00 Disclosures and Social Hour Kickoff 1:15 Meet Barron's Josh Schafer 6:30 Semiconductors Rip on AI Buildout 10:20 Intel's Surprise Turnaround Narrative 14:10 Powell Drama Fades as Stocks Rally 18:35 Tech Layoffs and the Capex Squeeze 22:10 Earnings Boom Meets Inflation Pain 25:40 Talmon Smith on Affordability and Sentiment 37:50 The Fed's Dilemma and the 2% Target 52:40 GDP Angst and Market Narrative Confusion 59:30 Where to Follow and What's NextConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enConnect with Talmon:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tal-smith-b1898a326/• X: https://x.com/talmonsmithConnect with Josh:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh-schafer-b24723132/• X: https://x.com/_JoshSchaferQuestions? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

April 22, 202658 min

The Bull is Back (FvF Ep. 184)

In Episode 184 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most historic 13-day market rallies ever recorded and ask the question most investors are afraid to answer: Are the lows for 2026 already in?Ryan and Sonu break down what actually drove the comeback—not just momentum, but a fundamental shift in the earnings picture. Forward EPS estimates are rising sharply across tech, energy, and materials, and margin expansion is now the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns. They explain why nominal GDP growth of 5% to 6% is fueling corporate profits even as consumer sentiment sits near historic lows, and why that gap between how people feel and how they actually spend tells the real story of this market.The episode also covers portfolio construction in a structurally inflationary world, why telecom has quietly surged 40%, why hard assets and managed futures are outperforming bonds, and what this bull market's three-and-a-half-year track record says about where things go from here.Key Takeaways:The SP 500's largest 13-day rally in history was driven by fundamentals, not just reliefForward EPS estimates are rising across tech, energy, and materials, three sectors making up 40% of the indexMargin expansion is the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returnsConsumer spending remains strong in nominal terms even as real income growth is flatTelecom has surged 40% and remains one of the most overlooked positions in diversified modelsBull markets that reach Year 3 have made it to Year 4 seven out of eight times historicallyRyan believes the 9.1% drawdown in early 2026 marked the lows for the yearJump to:0:00 — Welcome and Quick Setup0:31 — X Account Hack and Security Lessons3:41 — Livestream Guests and Schedule8:30 — Ryan's New CNBC Contributor Role9:58 — New Highs and a Historic Rally16:08 — Tim Cook's Legacy and Apple's AI Strategy22:06 — Earnings Growth vs. Valuation Multiples29:27 — Sector Profits: Energy, Tech, and Materials37:20 — Consumer Spending Amid Low Confidence44:15 — Retail Sales and Inflationary Growth47:16 — Portfolio Positioning for Real Economy Trends50:09 — Hype Cycles and the Allbirds AI Story53:34 — Are the Lows In for 2026?56:15 — Omaha Teaser, Closing, and DisclosuresConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

April 15, 20261 hr 1 min

Talking Oil and Iran with Rory Johnston (FvF Ep. 183)

A global oil chokepoint sits at the center of today’s biggest market story — and the ripple effects are already showing up in prices, supply chains, and geopolitics.In Episode 183 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, to break down what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz and why it matters far beyond energy markets. They walk through how oil actually moves around the world, how much supply has come offline, and why restarting production takes months, not days.The conversation reveals the mechanics behind oil pricing, from futures curves to physical barrels, and explains why spot prices have surged even as headline prices lag behind. They also explore how disruptions force tough tradeoffs across global economies, with rising costs hitting some regions far harder than others.If you want to understand what drives oil prices, how supply shocks unfold, and what comes next, this episode connects the dots.Jump to:0:02 Welcome And Guest Introduction2:05 Rory’s Path Into Oil Analysis6:09 Strait Of Hormuz Flow Basics10:20 Reroutes, Pipelines, And Shut-Ins20:50 The Double Blockade Explained27:20 Retaliation Risks And LNG Targets29:52 Shortages, Jet Fuel, And Demand Destruction33:20 How Oil Prices Went Negative36:56 Brent, WTI, Dated Brent, Backwardation50:08 Why Oil And Stocks Look Complacent57:22 Where To Follow Rory And ClosingConnect with Ryan:• Ryan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• Sonu on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enConnect with Rory Johnston:• Rory Johnston on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysjjohnston/• X: https://x.com/Rory_JohnstonQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com