Etsy Learns About Situational Markets and Customization
The Experience Strategy Podcast Hosts: Aransas Savas | Joe Pine, author of The Transformation Economy | Dave Norton, PhD, author of Human Context: How Intelligent Companies Build Customers Episode Overview A Wall Street Journal article on Etsy's AI-powered personalization push gives the hosts a real-world case study in what happens when companies finally stop confusing purchase history with preference — and start thinking in situations. The results are hard to argue with: Etsy's sales are up 7.5% since they began making the shift. What We Cover What Etsy got wrong — and what they're fixing Etsy's recommendation engine was built on Bayesian algorithms that treated every purchase as a revealed preference. Buy a onesie, and the system assumes you must love baby gear. The obvious problem: most people buying baby gifts are not having babies. Etsy figured this out themselves and began reworking their algorithms to identify whether someone is shopping for themselves or for someone else — and to make recommendations based on that context rather than raw purchase history. Purchase history is not preference Joe draws a distinction worth holding onto: purchases can be one-offs, while preferences tend to persist. The two are not the same thing, and conflating them is what produces the kind of recommendations that make customers feel like the system simply isn't listening. Dave puts it plainly — most retailers have built their entire recommendation infrastructure on a faulty assumption. The situation Etsy is still missing Etsy is asking the right question — gift or self-purchase — but that is only the beginning. What the hosts push toward is the fuller situational picture: what mode is the shopper in? What is the occasion? What is the relationship between the buyer and the recipient? Those questions are not being asked yet, and the gap between where Etsy is and where they could be is significant. Spotify's approach as a signal Aransas flags a Spotify feature that inverts the usual dynamic: instead of inferring everything from behavior, it simply asks. Tell us what you like to listen to in the mornings. What are we missing? The survey feeds directly into the listening experience with no human intermediary. Joe reframes it: this is not a survey in the marketing research sense. It is a tool for understanding individual customers in real time. The Muse disruption on the horizon Dave brings the conversation back to the larger threat. Personal AI agents — Muse and those like it — are going to know each user's context in a way that Etsy, Amazon, and every other retailer cannot match from the outside. The agent will do the shopping. Amazon has already blocked Muse for exactly this reason. Retailers who are not building toward situational understanding now are not behind on a future problem — they are behind on a current one. Etsy's homepage tells the story Four of Etsy's seven navigation tabs are gift-oriented. Aransas notes that once you click into the gifts section, the site does ask who you are shopping for and for what occasion — which is real progress. But the entire frame assumes gifting as the default context, leaving significant surface area unaddressed for shoppers who are there for themselves. Key Idea If you can see that something is going to become a problem in the future, it is a problem now. The retailers who are treating contextual personalization as a roadmap item — rather than an urgent response to present disruption — are already behind. Resources Mentioned Etsy Aims to Get More Personal and Boost Business with AI — Jennifer Williams, Wall Street Journal Muse Is a Wake-Up Call to Any Customer-Facing Company — Dave Norton, The Experience Strategist on Substack Human Context: How Intelligent Companies Build Customers — Dave Norton The Transformation Economy — Joe Pine Continue the conversation at the Experience Strategy Substack . New episodes drop weekly.






