The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

Hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Jun 2026

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Whether you're a business leader, investor, or simply curious about the forces shaping our world, The Decisive podcast is here to provide you with the knowledge you need to stay ahead. Join our team of seasoned Market Intelligence analysts as they explore the ever-changing landscape of maritime, trade and supply chain, economics and country risk.

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June 13, 2026Episode 1026 min

DRAMageddon: What AI Demand Means for Gaming Hardware Supply Chains

AI is reshaping more than software — it's putting intense pressure on the global semiconductor supply chain. In this special cross-post from Data & Dimensions, The Decisive brings you a timely conversation on how surging demand for AI infrastructure is driving a shortage of DRAM memory, raising costs across consumer technology, and forcing companies to rethink production, pricing, and inventory strategy. Host Neil Barbour speaks with Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about the "DRAMageddon" unfolding across markets — from AI data centers and gaming hardware to smartphones, VR headsets, consoles, tariffs, and global trade. Key takeaways include: How AI accelerators are absorbing semiconductor capacity and pushing DRAM prices higher Why consumer electronics — including smartphones, VR headsets, and gaming consoles — are facing rising memory costs and supply constraints What the DRAM shortage means for the gaming market ahead of major launches like Grand Theft Auto VI How companies are shifting hardware production from mainland China to Vietnam amid tariff uncertainty Why inflation, component shortages, and macroeconomic pressures could delay the next generation of consoles until 2028 What today's memory squeeze reveals about the broader intersection of AI, supply chains, global trade, and technology strategy For listeners of The Decisive, this episode offers a sharp look at how disruption moves through industries in real time — turning a technical bottleneck in semiconductor memory into a wider story about pricing power, production strategy, and the future of consumer technology. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Electronics Supply Chain Outlook The Decisive | Season 6 Ep.2 - How Supply Constraints Are Defining Electronics Pricing Video game profitability tracker: Positive, if precarious, margin trends in 2025 For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Parallel processes: Rising component costs bifurcate sector, limit PC manufacturing volumes More than war: Q2 2026 corporate supply chain strategy outlook Credits: Hosts: Neil Barbour Guest: Chris Rogers Produced By: Neil Barbour, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Neil Barbour, Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

June 6, 2026Episode 935 min

From Free Trade to Managed Trade: The Next Phase of USMCA

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, we examine the future of the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement at a moment of heightened political uncertainty and rising strategic tension across North America. With trilateral trade reaching roughly $1.8 trillion in the 12 months to August 2025, the stakes are high for governments, investors, and manufacturers alike as the 2026 review process unfolds. Drawing on insights from S&P Global Market Intelligence's Country Risk team, the discussion explores why North American supply chains have remained broadly resilient since the USMCA took effect, even through the pandemic and recent tariff shifts. Mexico continues to benefit from regionalization and reshoring trends, while the US is increasingly focused on trade deficits, investment screening, and the role of mainland Chinese firms using North America as a production platform. Canada, meanwhile, faces a more difficult negotiating environment, shaped by tariffs, political friction, and growing divergence with Washington on industrial policy, data rules, and trade alignment. The conversation also revisits four possible paths for the agreement's future, with a growing emphasis on annual renewals and incremental changes rather than a single long-term resolution. That approach could preserve US leverage over both Mexico and Canada, but it would also prolong uncertainty for businesses seeking predictability in cross-border investment and sourcing decisions. The experts assess where the toughest disputes are likely to emerge, including automotive rules of origin, labor standards, agriculture, energy policy, and data regulation. They also point to lower-risk areas such as trade facilitation and regulatory harmonization where technical progress may still be possible. A central theme is the shifting nature of the agreement itself. Rather than a traditional free trade framework, the experts describe the USMCA as evolving into a form of managed trade, one in which tariffs remain part of the landscape and negotiations increasingly serve broader strategic and political objectives. Trade policy is now intersecting more visibly with security concerns, domestic politics, and geopolitical competition, especially in the US-Mexico relationship. The episode closes with a look at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the security landscape across the US, Canada, and Mexico. The experts assess terrorism, cartel violence, and protest risks around the tournament, concluding that while major disruptions are not the baseline expectation, authorities are preparing for a wide range of threats and operational challenges across all three host countries. If you're looking for a clear, forward-looking view of where North American trade talks may be headed — and what the next phase of USMCA negotiations could mean for supply chains, investment strategy, and regional stability — listen now. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Canada readies ambitious legislation to reform supply chain Picture This: World Cup Security Risks MediaTalk | Season 4 | Ep. 23 - FIFA World Cup 2026: Global Media Rights, Ads vs. Sponsors, and Streaming Wars Click here to sign up for our monthly Geopolitical and Economic Risk newsletter For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Assessing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement ahead of 2026 review Mexico, US hold first round of USMCA negotiations Mexi-Corridor: Transit route to connect the Pacific and Atlantic oceans Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guests: John Raines, Jose Enrique Sevilla-Macip Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

May 30, 2026Episode 818 min

Resilience Tested: What's at Stake for the US Economy

In this episode, taken from our May 19 client webinar, our economists unpack a high-stakes U.S. macro outlook shaped by geopolitical conflict, higher energy prices, sticky inflation, and change at the helm of the Federal Reserve. US GDP growth held up well in 2025, even as businesses and households faced historically high tariffs, volatility in financial markets and elevated uncertainty. This year brings a new source of risk: war in the Middle East. The U.S. economy should remain resilient in 2026, but growth is expected to slow to 1.6% as elevated oil prices and softer consumer spending weigh on activity. Our experts also explore why tariffs are still keeping prices elevated, why the Fed is expected to stay on hold through 2026, and why rate cuts are not projected to resume until June 2027. If you want a clear, scenario-based read on where the U.S. economy may be headed next—and what could change the path—this is the episode to queue up. A sharp, scenario-driven look at the 2026 U.S. economy—from oil shocks and inflation to tariffs, recession risk, and the Fed's next move. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Global Economic Outlook: May 2026 US Economic Pulse: Tax Day Click here to sign up for our monthly Geopolitical and Economic Risk newsletter For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Monthly Macro Monitor: The mounting economic costs of the Middle East conflict US core PCE inflation rises to 3.3%; real spending up 0.1% in April Frequently asked question: Should we be concerned about the labor force participation rate? Credits: Host: Emily Crowley Guests: Ben Herzon, Pat Newport, Michael Zdinak, Lawrence Nelson Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

May 25, 2026Episode 732 min

How AI Investment Is Influencing Labor Dynamics

Artificial intelligence is no longer a future story — it is already shaping how companies invest, how governments respond, and how labor markets evolve. But adoption is unfolding unevenly, with major differences across sectors, firm sizes, and regions. In this episode, taken from a May 13 client webinar, we take a global look at the realities of AI adoption and its economic consequences. The discussion spans developed markets such as Germany, the UK, and Spain, where adoption is more advanced and often tied to productivity gains and workforce consolidation, as well as emerging economies including Brazil, India, and countries across Sub-Saharan Africa, where AI is more likely to complement labor and support output growth. Our experts also explore the widening gap between large enterprises and smaller firms. Larger companies are better positioned to deploy tailored, enterprise-wide AI strategies, while smaller businesses tend to adopt off-the-shelf tools more gradually and for narrower use cases. At the same time, the labor-market effects remain nuanced: routine tasks are being automated, demand is rising for roles in AI development, software engineering, data analytics, and operational support, and AI-driven layoffs remain limited relative to broader macroeconomic pressures. A key focus is the infrastructure and execution challenge facing frontier markets. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, unstable power grids, reliance on diesel generation, foreign-exchange liquidity constraints, and elevated operating costs are limiting the productivity gains that AI and data-center investment might otherwise deliver. In some markets, operating costs are inflated by 30% to 40%, underscoring the gap between AI ambition and implementation reality. The discussion concludes with a forward-looking assessment of AI's long-term impact: near-term efficiency gains are likely to outpace workforce displacement, but over time AI could reshape labor demand more fundamentally, with significant implications for growth, competitiveness, and job creation. If you're looking for a data-informed, globally comparative view of how AI is being adopted in practice — and what business leaders, investors, and policymakers should watch next — listen now. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Picture this: AI rush sparks massive increase in US high-tech imports PMI data and commentary Click here to read our full report on 2026 strategic themes For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Impact of AI investment on performance and labor dynamics Key takeaways from April 2026 Pricing and Purchasing seminar briefings SSA investment in data centers: Macroeconomic upside depends on deliverability Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guests: Sophie Malin, Pollyanna De Lima, Alisa Strobel Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

May 16, 2026Episode 622 min

PMI in Focus: Stockpiling and the Shadow of Stagflation

In this May 2026 episode of The Decisive Podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence economists Paul Smith, Eleanor Dennison, and Andrew Harker dissect the latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data to reveal how ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are reshaping the global economic landscape. The team explores the ripple effects of supply chain disruptions, energy price surges, and heightened uncertainty on both manufacturing and service sectors across key regions. Listeners will gain a comprehensive overview of the J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI, highlighting modest growth in business activity alongside mounting inflationary pressures. The episode explores the eurozone's contrasting sector performance, with manufacturing buoyed by precautionary stockpiling and services facing contraction amid record-high uncertainty. Andrew Harker provides granular insights into commodity price movements, supply shortages, and the nuanced pass-through of costs in Asian economies, while Eleanor Dennison offers a deep dive into eurozone trends and the qualitative evidence from PMI panelists. Tune in for expert analysis on stagflation risks, the challenges of forecasting in volatile times, and the critical role of PMI data in navigating economic turning points. Whether you're tracking inflation, supply chains, or global business sentiment, this episode delivers timely intelligence for decision-makers. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: PMI data and commentary Banking Risk Monthly Outlook: May 2026 Click here for a special PMI client case study For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Middle East war Policy rate prospects Credits: Host: Paul Smith Guests: Andrew Harker, Eleanor Dennison Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

May 9, 2026Episode 518 min

Fake IDs on the High Seas: How Bad Actors Evade Detection

In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam explores the murky world of maritime identity manipulation—a growing threat that's reshaping global shipping, sanctions enforcement, and international trade. Joined by maritime risk and compliance expert Jeremy Domballe, Kristen unpacks how vessels can alter their digital, physical, and legal identities to operate undetected on the world's oceans. From "zombie ships" reusing the identities of long-scrapped vessels to the physical "whitewashing" of ship names, Kristen and Jeremy reveal the methods bad actors use to evade sanctions, access restricted markets, and profit from illicit trade. They also examine the risks this deception poses to financial institutions, insurers, ship owners, and governments—highlighting why trust in vessel identity is foundational to the entire maritime ecosystem. Listeners will gain insight into the latest trends in ID spoofing, including the manipulation of AIS signals, GNSS jamming, and unintentional identity errors that can create confusion across continents. The episode concludes with practical guidance on due diligence, technological countermeasures, and the importance of vigilance for anyone exposed to the maritime domain. Discover why, in today's shipping world, not every vessel is what it seems—and what you can do to stay one step ahead. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Transshipment: Frequently Asked Questions Port Congestion Analysis: Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia main hubs Maritime Chokepoints Tighten, Global Supply Chain Risk Rises For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Middle East war Truck trade: Hybrid routes provide Hormuz alternatives for containers, fertilizers Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Jeremy Domballe Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

May 2, 2026Episode 447 min

State of Shock: Economic Impacts of Middle East Conflict

The global economy is facing its weakest growth outlook since 2009. What happens when geopolitical conflict collides with an already fragile energy market? In this episode of The Decisive, we examine the cascading macroeconomic impacts of recent global disruptions and the resulting negative supply shocks that have forced economists to revise their forecasts. With global real GDP growth downgraded to just 2.4% and inflation projections rising due to energy and food prices, the economic divide between oil-exporting and oil-importing nations is becoming ever more pronounced. What You'll Learn: The Macro Outlook Discover why growth forecasts have been lowered and what our base-case assumption of $100/barrel oil means for the delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding recession. The Great Divide Explore the stark contrast in economic fortunes: Energy exporters like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weathering the storm, while highly vulnerable importers such as India, Egypt, and the Philippines face more acute macroeconomic pressures. Central Bank Dilemmas Understand how major central banks worldwide are navigating the difficult choice between taming persistent inflation and preventing an economic downturn—and why their responses could determine the trajectory of the global economy. Beyond the Barrel Uncover the hidden vulnerabilities in global supply chains, from refined fuels and fertilizers to the unexpected fallout in non-oil sectors like tourism, logistics, and real estate across the Middle East and Asia Pacific. Regional Deep Dives Get detailed analysis of how the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Asia Pacific (APAC) regions are experiencing these shocks differently, with vulnerability indices revealing which countries face the greatest macro-financial risks. Join our experts for a comprehensive, data-driven breakdown of vulnerabilities, inflation dynamics, and macroeconomic risks defining the global economy today. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Global Economic Outlook: April 2026 Picture This: What Middle East Supply Disruptions Mean for the Asia-Pacific Region Click here to hear our economists speak in Paris Click here to hear our economists speak in Frankfurt For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Middle East war Global Executive Summary Credits: Host: Ken Wattret Guests: Ralf Wiegert, Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, Diego Iscaro, Ben Herzon Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

April 25, 2026Episode 343 min

Governance Stress Tests: Key Elections in 2026

As pivotal elections approach in the United States, Brazil, and Ethiopia, global businesses are navigating a rapidly evolving landscape of risks and opportunities. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence experts John Raines (Head of North America Country Risk), Rafael Amiel (Head of Latin America Economics), and Jordan Anderson (Principal Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk) to examine how political outcomes through 2026 will influence government stability, economic policy, and geopolitical risk well into 2027 and beyond. Listeners will gain exclusive insights into potential market volatility as the panel explores the implications of the U.S. midterms, Brazil's presidential race, and Ethiopia's general elections. The discussion covers how shifting political dynamics may impact trade, supply chains, regulatory frameworks, and fiscal strategies—key considerations for multinational corporations and investors. Key topics include: Election outlooks in the U.S., Brazil, and Ethiopia and their impact on government stability Fiscal and monetary policy risks in Brazil and the U.S. Geopolitical and security risks in Ethiopia, including implications for regional stability and foreign investment Trade negotiations and the strategic role of commodities in Brazil's foreign policy Key indicators to monitor ahead of major elections for early risk detection More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Geopolitical Risk Brief: April 2026 Russia-Ukraine War: Three Conflict Development Pathways in the Next 12 Months Click here to subscribe to our Geopolitical and Economic Risk Monthly newsletter For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Global Executive Summary: Conflict-related economic fallout to continue Middle East war Currency outlooks Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guests: John Raines, Rafael Amiel, Jordan Anderson Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

April 18, 2026Episode 214 min

How Supply Constraints Are Defining Electronics Pricing

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Yan Hoong for an outlook on the electronics and semiconductor landscape through 2026—taken from a March 12 client webinar. Yan explains why memory remains a big source of procurement and pricing anxiety, with tightness persisting in both advanced and conventional memory as suppliers shift capacity toward higher-end products. Yan unpacks how this constraint is already spilling into downstream categories like computers and communications equipment, and why price pressure could linger until new capacity meaningfully comes online in late 2027 to 2028. The conversation also broadens beyond AI hype: while AI and data centers continue to pull demand (especially for high-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM), Yan points to a gradual recovery in the broader electronics cycle, with mixed signals across end markets. Aerospace and defense and AI-led infrastructure stand out as growth areas, while consumer electronics and automotive remain softer, reinforced by slowing light vehicle production and divergent PMI new order trends. Finally, Yan breaks down the January 2026 Section 232 tariff announcement, outlining how its pricing impact on US semiconductors may be limited due to narrow scope and broad exemptions for domestic use, with exposure more concentrated in re-export pathways. The episode closes by connecting pricing dynamics across regions—highlighting how memory-heavy supply chains are driving sharper producer price escalation in places like South Korea—while legacy components remain comparatively stable. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Electronics Supply Chain Outlook Click here for our special report on the impact of the Middle East war on commodity prices Click here to access our webinar on powering AI infrastructure in a volatile world Subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter. For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report) Purchasing Environment US tariff plans Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Yan Hoong Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

April 11, 2026Episode 121 min

Risk On: The Macro Environment for Moving Metals Prices

In the first episode of season 6 of The Decisive podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Jason Kaplan unpacks why 2026 is shaping up as a "risk-on" commodities environment—with steady but subdued global growth, rising volatility, and a deepening flight to safety that's pushing risk premiums across key markets. Jason, a senior economist in the Pricing and Purchasing team, connects macroeconomic signals to real-world pricing and trade flows, including how tariffs and regionalization are re-splitting markets after years of prices moving in lockstep. With a year of tariff data now visible, Jason details how Section 232-era aluminum tariffs and downstream copper-product tariffs are showing up in U.S. prices, collapsing imports, and widening regional differentials—with a caveat that the full cost burden for U.S. manufacturers may still be ahead. On the metals side, the episode dives into copper's structurally tight supply picture, the unique stress points in aluminum's midstream, and the U.S. Midwest premium, plus what's driving turning points in nickel, tin, and zinc. Finally, recorded just as geopolitical tensions escalated, Jason discusses why the published forecast does not yet fully incorporate the Iranian conflict—and what could change as updated macro assumptions are released, including particular sensitivity for Gulf-linked aluminum supply risks. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Commodity Price Watch Monthly: March 2026 US resin shippers look to tap new customers amid Iran war Click here to subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter. For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report) Purchasing Environment US tariff plans Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Jason Kaplan Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun