Audio narrations from the Effective Altruism Forum, including curated posts, posts with 30 karma, and other great writing. If you'd like fewer episodes, subscribe to the "EA Forum (Curated & Popular)" podcast instead.
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June 16, 202641 min
“How bad would it be if GPS satellites were shot down?” by Jackson Wagner
<p> Losing GPS isn’t an X-risk, but would create a huge disaster on the scale of Covid-19 or bigger.</p><p> Hi! From 2020 - 2023 I was one of the early employees at Xona Space Systems, a company working on essentially a next-generation version of GPS. I ended up learning a lot about how GPS works and what it's used for, and (due to my personal interest in effective altruism) ended up doing some research into what would happen if today's GPS systems suddenly failed. This post is the product of that research. I discuss:</p><ul> <li> What could kill GPS: it would be a tempting early target in a war between superpowers, or it could possibly be taken down by superhuman AI's cyber-hacking capabilities. On the bright side, it's probably safe from even very large solar storms.</li><li> If GPS was destroyed, how bad would this be? I describe all the major areas in civilian life that would be disrupted (mostly summarizing some government reports).</li><li> Then I try to crunch some very rough, vague numbers. It looks like losing GPS would (by itself) be an economic hit to the USA perhaps equivalent to a few billion dollars a day. On a very [...]</li></ul> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(03:05) "Whoa, GPS comes from space?? I thought it was just a thing in my car..."</p><p>(05:56) To be clear, there are multiple satellite-navigation constellations</p><p>(09:02) What could kill GPS?</p><p>(10:34) Great-power war</p><p>(13:18) Hacking by superhuman AI???</p><p>(15:02) An unprecedented solar storm, maybe</p><p>(18:03) Other stuff</p><p>(19:40) What would break in the aftermath of losing GPS?</p><p>(21:49) Impact on the cell network & smartphones</p><p>(23:08) Impact on the power grid</p><p>(25:20) Impact on maritime industries</p><p>(26:41) Impact on travel and logistics</p><p>(29:03) Impacts on other industries</p><p>(30:46) Reckoning an overall cost per day</p><p>(36:15) Hard to say, but this feels approximately Covid-19-scale-ish</p><p>(38:30) How long would an outage last?</p><p>(39:36) Remember: you're still at war with China, or Russia, or AI, or possibly the Sun!</p> <p>---</p>
<p><b>First published:</b><br/>
June 12th, 2026 </p>
<p><b>Source:</b><br/>
<a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/a2P7y5sEHFiNNHLt6/how-bad-would-it-be-if-gps-satellites-were-shot-down?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/a2P7y5sEHFiNNHLt6/how-bad-would-it-be-if-gps-satellites-were-shot-down</a> </p>
<p>---</p>
<p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>
<p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1781230679/lexical_client_uploads/qdgtprrowzp0ub5ypgts.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1781230679/lexical_client_uploads/qdgtprrowzp0ub5ypgts.png" alt="a GPS III satellite under construction" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1781230646/lexical_client_uploads/ltcvzm1zqfme41hg8moh.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1781230646/lexical_client_uploads/ltcvzm1zqfme41hg8moh.png" alt="The constellation looks like this" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1781230530/lexical_client_uploads/dlu8xuqw76asjb24x7zd.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1781230530/lexical_client_uploads/dlu8xuqw76asjb24x7zd.png" alt="Table titled "Potential Impact of a 30-Day GPS Outage" showing sector-specific losses in millions of dollars." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1781230530/lexical_client_uploads/pdcx33trddic84mteyzt.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1781230530/lexical_client_uploads/pdcx33trddic84mteyzt.png" alt="Table comparing NIST and UK 2021 sector losses normalized to maritime baseline." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>
June 16, 20264 min
“A frontier AI company should shut down” by MichaelDickens
<p> Cross-posted from my website.</p>
<p> Prior discussion: niplav's shortform (2025); Planning for Extreme AI Risks (2025) by Joshua Clymer</p>
<p> A frontier AI company (any one, I don't care which) should close shop and make an announcement along the lines of:</p>
<p> Powerful AI could end the human race. We are too worried that we don't know how to make this technology safe. We have decided to shut down because we don't want to be responsible for building the thing that kills us all.</p>
<p> A common refrain among safety-conscious AI developers: "it doesn't matter if we stop building dangerous AI, because someone else will just build it instead." Is that really true, though? If a multi-hundred-billion-dollar company comes out and says "We've concluded that our product is horribly dangerous, nobody knows how to make it safe, and there's too high a risk that it leads to human extinction", this won't raise any eyebrows? This has no chance of spurring policy-makers into action?</p>
<p> Shutting down would make people say, holy shit, they are serious about this extinction risk thing. Shutting down sends a strong signal to governments that they should pay serious attention to AI x-risk.</p>
<p> It [...]</p> <p><i>The original text contained 4 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p>
<p><b>First published:</b><br/>
June 15th, 2026 </p>
<p><b>Source:</b><br/>
<a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xeekqhAyzmihdFBuj/a-frontier-ai-company-should-shut-down?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xeekqhAyzmihdFBuj/a-frontier-ai-company-should-shut-down</a> </p>
<p>---</p>
<p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>
June 15, 202622 min
“How Africa Can (and Must) Skip the 30-Year Animal Welfare EvolutionUntitled Draft” by Jacob Ayang, Cheslyn Ceaser
<p data-internal-id="h.i2ykepvvwr28">TLDR: The animal welfare movement in Africa has made significant progress over the last 5 years, but due to increasing commercialisation of animals on the continent and foreign interest in animal agriculture, now more than ever, it needs to accelerate. Our retrospective look at Europe's trajectory shows that reform did not stem from a gradual shift in attitudes. Instead, it was sparked by interconnected events over about 20 to 30 years. Events like public health and food safety crises involving animals fueled advocacy groups. These events led to policy wins and a change in the retail market. We think Africa can compress this timeline to 5–10 years by: actively and strategically pushing for institutional and policy recognition now rather than waiting for organic growth in public demand, capitalizing on non-animal welfare framing, recruiting mid-to-late career professionals now while focusing on education of early-to-mid career professionals, and, building strategic partnerships with universities, government agencies, and industry bodies to embed welfare into curricula, regulation, and market standards.</p><h4 data-internal-id="Introduction">Introduction</h4><p> In our work, we routinely reflect on the status and ongoing development of Africa's animal welfare movement. In this, we have seen how small actions can lead to big wins for animals across [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:22) Introduction</p><p>(04:26) Where the Analogy Holds, and Where It Breaks Down</p><p>(07:17) How the Change Started in Europe</p><p>(11:32) How Africa Can Skip This</p><p>(21:06) Conclusion</p><p>(21:58) Acknowledgment</p> <p>---</p>
<p><b>First published:</b><br/>
June 15th, 2026 </p>
<p><b>Source:</b><br/>
<a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/f8bAPi4xKwMFzE9fn/how-africa-can-and-must-skip-the-30-year-animal-welfare-1?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/f8bAPi4xKwMFzE9fn/how-africa-can-and-must-skip-the-30-year-animal-welfare-1</a> </p>
<p>---</p>
<p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>
June 14, 20266 min
“Reasons To Be Skeptical Of RP’s Moral Weights Project” by James Brobin
<p> In Rethink Priorities' (2021-2022) Moral Weights Project, they attempted to compare the welfare ranges of different farmed animals (which basically means comparing how many suffering shrimp are equal to one suffering chicken.) This project is the most comprehensive attempt at doing inter-species welfare comparisons to date, and it makes a very valuable contribution to the field.</p><p> That said, I think that many EAs have excessive confidence in these welfare ranges.[1] As such, in this post, I'm going to explain the project's basic methodology and some reasons to be skeptical of it.</p><p> Note: I am not a biologist. Others have written about this before, but I thought I would make this post since I've been thinking about the topic, and I think this view is worth re-iterating.</p><p><strong> Welfare Range Estimates Chart</strong></p><p> For reference, this chart is the welfare ranges being discussed:</p><p><strong> The Basic Methodology</strong></p><p> To create these moral weights, they calculated welfare ranges using three models:</p><ol> <li> The Equality Model<ol> <li> According to this model, all species have equal welfare ranges. (So, a chicken and a pig's most intense experiences would be equal in intensity.)</li></ol></li><li> The Neurophysiological Model<ol> <li> According to this model, an animal's welfare range can be determined [...]</li></ol></li></ol> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:58) Welfare Range Estimates Chart</p><p>(01:19) The Basic Methodology</p><p>(02:46) Reasons to Be Skeptical</p><p>(06:22) Conclusion</p> <p>---</p>
<p><b>First published:</b><br/>
June 9th, 2026 </p>
<p><b>Source:</b><br/>
<a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/e2hTH2sAWT4ByBe63/reasons-to-be-skeptical-of-rp-s-moral-weights-project?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/e2hTH2sAWT4ByBe63/reasons-to-be-skeptical-of-rp-s-moral-weights-project</a> </p>
<p>---</p>
<p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>
<p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/e2hTH2sAWT4ByBe63/ouboakyget5msnrfedqr" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/e2hTH2sAWT4ByBe63/ouboakyget5msnrfedqr" alt="Bar graph titled "Placeholder Welfare Range Estimates (Life Years)" comparing welfare ranges across species." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>
June 12, 202615 min
[Linkpost] “The Quest To Find The Next Big Communicators In AI Safety” by Akshyae Singh
This is a link post.<p> In September 2025, I'd become increasingly convinced that a fieldbuilding program for content creators could solve a long-standing bottleneck of expanding reach and trust beyond the AI safety and EA bubble.</p><p> I had graduated from UCLA a few months earlier when I came across the AI-2027 report which had a significant impact on me. I rejected my six-figure tech consulting offer, left my place in LA, and moved to the first place I could find in the Bay Area to contribute to AI Safety. Contrary to my expectations, only a small subset of people were working towards what seemed to be far more important than building yet another AI B2B SaaS.</p><p> I wanted to change this. The power of a good external-facing comms effort is underrated. AI in Context, If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies, Rob Miles is the first interaction with AI Safety for many, including mine. It has the power to empower mainstream audiences to act by creating trust and relatability, and meeting them where they’re at- social media. Moreover, I felt that I had the right background to do this- my experience as an activist, ex-founder building products for clients Google & [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(02:29) The Fellowship</p><p>(06:24) Other Features of the program (with pics!)</p><p>(09:39) What we learnt</p><p>(11:01) Looking Ahead</p><p>(12:15) How to Get Involved</p><p>(13:34) How to Get Involved</p><p>(13:44) Early bird Applications are OPEN! APPLY</p><p>(13:57) Join the Team</p><p>(14:20) Partner with us</p><p>(14:39) Consider Donating</p> <p>---</p>
<p><b>First published:</b><br/>
June 11th, 2026 </p>
<p><b>Source:</b><br/>
<a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/the-quest-to-find-the-next-big-communicators-in-ai-safety?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/the-quest-to-find-the-next-big-communicators-in-ai-safety</a> </p>
<p><strong>Linkpost URL:</strong><br><a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lesswrong.com%2Fposts%2FALBdBRas7G3kdbPSq%2Fthe-quest-to-find-the-next-big-communicators-in-ai-safety" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ALBdBRas7G3kdbPSq/the-quest-to-find-the-next-big-communicators-in-ai-safety</a></p>
<p>---</p>
<p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>
<p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/mhyfgpderxjfbm2io3en" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/mhyfgpderxjfbm2io3en" alt="Frame Fellows at the final showcase at Lighthaven, Berkeley" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/nfnkn28to9wu4a95nz9q" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/nfnkn28to9wu4a95nz9q" alt="some popular videos by our creators" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/pibnnkzb7mcwmge9f1nv" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/pibnnkzb7mcwmge9f1nv" alt="left: fellow Caitlin pitching her theory of change; top right pic: fellows Michael & Lauren discussing content strategies; bottom right: Fellow Janet receiving feedback on her video" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/xcrllfqubtn4ie3cyglj" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/xcrllfqubtn4ie3cyglj" alt="left: Chana Messinger (AI in Context, 80000 hours, 350k+ ); right: Drew Spartz (Species, 350k+)" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/dqpnl9hytzfi7ogtonmu" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/dqpnl9hytzfi7ogtonmu" alt="left: fellows Gaetan and Vin drinking Hot Chocolate (that I made); right: creator dinner with other creators in SF" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/b6dhk0ufcgtp2oneihmn" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/b6dhk0ufcgtp2oneihmn" alt="left: right after a snack run; right: We love Sterling!!!" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/lycuhjztlhwizoacosgx" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/lycuhjztlhwizoacosgx" alt="The Conversation at Lighthaven to celebrate and discuss AI Safety media" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/mz1saojxazvzqhnxlhxp" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/mz1saojxazvzqhnxlhxp" alt="News article screenshot. The headline reads: "Inside a growing movement warning AI could turn on humanity." The subheading reads: "Warnings about the potential for artificial intelligence to escape human control could be coming soon to an influencer near you."" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/ngkjkdieyhitls18lip1" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/ngkjkdieyhitls18lip1" alt="Four-panel social media content about AI featuring different people and activities." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/jnyfs4kdirzang1jydqd" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6i4HmdjGWhX7nzwt3/jnyfs4kdirzang1jydqd" alt="Nine people in matching navy shirts posing for group photo." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>
This is a link post.<p> I was recently at “Skoll”, the biggest NGO/social entrepreneurship conference. From one conversation to the next, two topics popped up over and over……. and over<br> <br> 1. Scale, Scale, Scale<br> 2. Scale through Government, Government, Government<br> <br> We at OneDay Health grapple with these questions: how then Shall we scale? And shall we through Government? Right now we operate 88 one-nurse health centers which save lives in remote rural healthcare black holes. Our one nurse in one room model can get good primary care to people cheap and fast. But to get good healthcare to everyone, we’ll need to do more than “grow”, but “scale”.<br> <br> If we continue to launch more health centers every year through donor money, we’ll do plenty of good but can only grow our impact in a linear-ish way. From 100 to 150 to 200 health centers. Each year we’ll have to increase our donations and budget to increase our impact. Even if we succeed we’ll never reach tens of millions of people. So what is this “scale” business and how could we get there? Kevin Starr has outlined two key principles of scale.<br> <br> 1. “Scale is about exponential [...]</br></br></br></br></br></br></br></br></br></p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(02:14) Three Concerns about Scale through Government</p><p>(02:55) Not the only way</p><p>(05:21) Should governments pay for the best interventions?</p><p>(05:57) Morally Dodgy</p><p>(07:10) Its really hard</p><p>(08:39) Poor Taxpayers not Excess Western Money now pay for the impact</p> <p>---</p>
<p><b>First published:</b><br/>
June 10th, 2026 </p>
<p><b>Source:</b><br/>
<a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wakWGb5qgiyvZyQQe/scale-scale-scale-govt-govt-govt-3-concerns?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wakWGb5qgiyvZyQQe/scale-scale-scale-govt-govt-govt-3-concerns</a> </p>
<p><strong>Linkpost URL:</strong><br><a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Fhome%2Fpost%2Fp-201440232" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://substack.com/home/post/p-201440232</a></p>
<p>---</p>
<p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>
<p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/wakWGb5qgiyvZyQQe/uyd2wm2bjomfxwzyazil" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/wakWGb5qgiyvZyQQe/uyd2wm2bjomfxwzyazil" alt="https://ssir.org/articles/entry/scale-really-matters" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/wakWGb5qgiyvZyQQe/ozmrxljik0oucuibrd6l" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/wakWGb5qgiyvZyQQe/ozmrxljik0oucuibrd6l" alt="Bald man in gray suit holding plastic bag, captioned "1 BILLION DOLLARS"" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/wakWGb5qgiyvZyQQe/ocvbvertshpzdz2nsjvr" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/wakWGb5qgiyvZyQQe/ocvbvertshpzdz2nsjvr" alt="https://ssir.org/articles/entry/scale-really-matters" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>
June 11, 20266 min
“Building Ideas-First EA” by Mjreard
<p> TLDR: Sarah Bluhm and I are funding and mentoring ideas-first (as opposed to, e.g., careers-first) EA community builders. If you’re at one of these universities or know someone who is, we want to talk to you, especially this subset:</p><ul> <li> University of Toronto</li><li> University of Michigan</li><li> UCLA</li><li> USC</li><li> NYU</li><li> Columbia</li><li> Claremont Colleges (Claremont McKenna, Scripps, Harvey Mudd, Pomona, Pitzer)</li><li> Stanford</li><li> Harvard</li><li> MIT</li><li> Cornell</li><li> Georgetown</li><li> Northwestern</li></ul><p> **Contact us here or at contact@nest-ea.org**</p><p><strong> The Network for EA Support & Training (NEST)</strong></p><p> We (Matt Reardon and Sarah Bluhm) founded NEST, whose mission is to build vibrant in-person EA communities by teaching organizers the craft of communicating EA ideas with courage and authenticity.</p><p> I (Matt) am a former lawyer and 80k advisor who blogs, tweets, and podcasts about EA. Sarah worked on CEA's university groups team and has a background in bioengineering.</p><p> NEST's philosophy is that EA communities should be platforms for individuals to form their own views on the central questions of Effective Altruism: what are the most important issues in the world, why those issues, and what should I do about them?</p><p> This contrasts with approaches to community building that act as recruiting funnels for specific organizations or fields. We think [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:56) The Network for EA Support & Training (NEST)</p><p>(02:19) University groups</p><p>(03:44) What we provide</p><p>(05:46) The next step</p> <p>---</p>
<p><b>First published:</b><br/>
June 11th, 2026 </p>
<p><b>Source:</b><br/>
<a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8pSppMFeQAeg4Pn8E/building-ideas-first-ea-1?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8pSppMFeQAeg4Pn8E/building-ideas-first-ea-1</a> </p>
<p>---</p>
<p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>
June 11, 20261 min
“Call for mentors: Sentient Futures Project Incubator” by Sentient Futures, Jay Luong, Constance Li, Sam Chapman, Brody McManus
Apply now<p> Deadline: July 8, 2026</p><p> Tentative program dates: August 15 – October 30</p><p><strong> Know someone doing serious work on AI, animals, or the long-term future of sentient beings?</strong></p><p> That someone might be you.</p><p> As a mentor, you can:</p><ul> <li> Bring your own project idea and get matched with motivated fellows (think: short-term research assistant)</li><li> Shape the next generation of researchers and practitioners in this space</li><li> Join a growing network of 40+ mentors pushing the frontiers of nonhuman welfare</li></ul><p> What's involved:</p><ul> <li> Weekly 30-60 min call + light async support</li><li> 10 weeks, fully remote</li></ul><p><strong> Apply by July 8 or visit here to learn more.</strong></p><p> Feel free to share with anyone who'd be a good fit!</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:32) Know someone doing serious work on AI, animals, or the long-term future of sentient beings?</p><p>(01:10) Apply by July 8 or visit here to learn more.</p> <p>---</p>
<p><b>First published:</b><br/>
June 10th, 2026 </p>
<p><b>Source:</b><br/>
<a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hALtL8H5P5opscswe/call-for-mentors-sentient-futures-project-incubator?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hALtL8H5P5opscswe/call-for-mentors-sentient-futures-project-incubator</a> </p>
<p>---</p>
<p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>
June 11, 20261 hr 2 min
[Linkpost] “Are top existential risk estimates 50,000 times too high? An optimizer’s curse model and analysis” by titotal
This is a link post.<p> Thanks to Arepo, David Thorstadt, Zeshen, and Michael st Jules for looking over this article. Disclaimer: I am not a subject matter expert and this is not a rigorous scientific article. This post is entirely human-written.</p><p> Introduction</p><p> In a previous article, I wrote a general introduction to the optimizer's curse, the phenomenon where a combination of random errors and ranking of causes results in the overestimation of top causes and a biasing of results towards uncertain causes. In that article, I mainly focussed on areas such as global health charities, where estimates or errors can be derived from the results of reasonably strong empirical evidence such as randomised control trials.</p><p> In this post, I want to explore how the optimizer's curse might affect tasks that are in the domain of extreme uncertainty. Specifically, I will try and model how the curse could manifest in the ranking of estimates of existential risk, a subject where empirical evidence is thin and experts disagree by orders of magnitude.</p><p> A standard way of ranking existential threats is to take a bunch of threats that have been raised as potentially deadly to humanity, and then for each one of them [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(08:09) Part 1: Building a model</p><p>(25:19) Part 2: Interrogating the model</p><p>(40:15) Part 3: Objections</p><p>(57:26) Summary and Conclusion:</p> <p>---</p>
<p><b>First published:</b><br/>
June 11th, 2026 </p>
<p><b>Source:</b><br/>
<a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mEJKkkjQydM68EQTP/are-top-existential-risk-estimates-50-000-times-too-high-an?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mEJKkkjQydM68EQTP/are-top-existential-risk-estimates-50-000-times-too-high-an</a> </p>
<p><strong>Linkpost URL:</strong><br><a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftitotal.substack.com%2Fp%2Fare-top-existential-risk-estimates" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://titotal.substack.com/p/are-top-existential-risk-estimates</a></p>
<p>---</p>
<p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>
<p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ffGS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0a5ea9e6-a264-44c1-9351-1f09a968bedc_707x745.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ffGS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0a5ea9e6-a264-44c1-9351-1f09a968bedc_707x745.png" alt="Table showing existential catastrophe probabilities within next 100 years, comparing natural versus anthropogenic risks." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nrjy!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc328c063-1ce5-40c6-8b8c-f510f18ad92a_621x374.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nrjy!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc328c063-1ce5-40c6-8b8c-f510f18ad92a_621x374.png" alt="A bar graph comparing actual effect and estimation error across two categories." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cAiF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F035546d5-cd52-458d-b5fe-3672fa511874_489x383.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cAiF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F035546d5-cd52-458d-b5fe-3672fa511874_489x383.png" alt="Log-log plot showing probability versus severity of event for deaths, injuries, and total." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PaN0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F56f5f014-de8c-4f04-a116-a33e8a4fb6f6_712x424.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PaN0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F56f5f014-de8c-4f04-a116-a33e8a4fb6f6_712x424.png" alt="Graph comparing three probability distributions: power-law, log-normal, and normal declining curves." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xS7Q!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F49d5c8ee-ea7e-4adf-9101-547db2b61aa4_400x307.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xS7Q!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F49d5c8ee-ea7e-4adf-9101-547db2b61aa4_400x307.png" alt="Table showing various quantities with their minimum values and power law exponents." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2Y5b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F634c8ca9-8fc4-4af7-bbea-5c5dd0b7f237_389x282.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2Y5b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F634c8ca9-8fc4-4af7-bbea-5c5dd0b7f237_389x282.png" alt="Bar graph showing a steep downward trend from left to right." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aM1N!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1eb98a1a-3549-432e-861f-b6f6cbcf9c28_736x411.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aM1N!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1eb98a1a-3549-432e-861f-b6f6cbcf9c28_736x411.png" alt="Bar graph showing odds data with median line and certainty percentage marker." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5OBG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85ee2d6a-0596-4bb0-848f-251856bb8354_736x411.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5OBG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85ee2d6a-0596-4bb0-848f-251856bb8354_736x411.png" alt="Bar graph showing probability distribution with labels "1 in a million odds" and "median" marked." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!61Go!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8394bb4-50df-4351-8c85-bd79f5464c69_414x282.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!61Go!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8394bb4-50df-4351-8c85-bd79f5464c69_414x282.png" alt="Bell curve or normal distribution graph displayed in blue." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kzkL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe52d721b-6ae5-43de-8799-d2cf5c30e3de_737x324.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kzkL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe52d721b-6ae5-43de-8799-d2cf5c30e3de_737x324.png" alt="Scatter plot with blue points and green diagonal line showing positive correlation." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!An_C!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd49221d-53cf-4676-a6f3-223ec041f438_225x227.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!An_C!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd49221d-53cf-4676-a6f3-223ec041f438_225x227.png" alt="Table showing threat rank, chance percentage, and odds for ten ranked items." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S0sW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F33c9a93b-a92a-4ab1-adaf-1d8fd9094a22_420x280.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S0sW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F33c9a93b-a92a-4ab1-adaf-1d8fd9094a22_420x280.png" alt="Two overlapping distribution curves comparing estimates versus actual values, with vertical dashed lines marking centers." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2sAi!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6be2abdd-6e19-4269-a7af-7d71feb2f1de_392x282.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2sAi!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6be2abdd-6e19-4269-a7af-7d71feb2f1de_392x282.png" alt="Histogram showing a bell-shaped distribution with a vertical dashed line at the median." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!StBu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2bef88c-f86b-4b62-8bb7-6f666476a3a3_519x401.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!StBu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2bef88c-f86b-4b62-8bb7-6f666476a3a3_519x401.png" alt="Graph showing four overlapping normal distribution curves labeled 10, 100, 1000, and n." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4HHu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F817ea8f1-b1d0-404a-96c4-d30146cd80c0_568x424.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4HHu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F817ea8f1-b1d0-404a-96c4-d30146cd80c0_568x424.png" alt="Graph showing three vertical dashed lines labeled m=10, h=100, and a=1000 over a curved surface." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gSxW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21c80171-d32a-4347-b4cd-8b6c68b758e7_520x401.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gSxW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21c80171-d32a-4347-b4cd-8b6c68b758e7_520x401.png" alt="Graph showing three overlapping distribution curves with alpha values 1.5, 2, and 4." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4AON!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f8d19c2-c203-4b35-b8cb-47fd2c02a6cf_568x424.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4AON!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f8d19c2-c203-4b35-b8cb-47fd2c02a6cf_568x424.png" alt="Graph showing probability distributions with alpha values of 4, 2, and 1.5." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ht5u!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcb333aa-8462-4ad0-9e19-bcf11311ce76_507x401.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ht5u!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcb333aa-8462-4ad0-9e19-bcf11311ce76_507x401.png" alt="Three overlapping normal distribution curves showing standard deviations of 1, 2, and 3." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2ihq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29ea65e1-21d9-4362-86f6-6f54fab50e86_568x424.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2ihq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29ea65e1-21d9-4362-86f6-6f54fab50e86_568x424.png" alt="Graph showing overlapping normal distribution curves with standard deviations labeled one through three." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3nN0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F06c3d8f4-3b09-4514-8cfb-1f49166aa9d4_516x401.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3nN0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F06c3d8f4-3b09-4514-8cfb-1f49166aa9d4_516x401.png" alt="Three overlapping distribution curves showing error means of 10^-3, 10^0, and 10^3." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0muu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe6a3a9dc-d078-4783-9034-16327896e708_507x401.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0muu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe6a3a9dc-d078-4783-9034-16327896e708_507x401.png" alt="Three overlapping distribution curves showing error means at different scales: 10^-3, 10^0, and 10^3." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CXSs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3879859d-ae5c-476e-bd94-bcb2019c533f_517x401.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CXSs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3879859d-ae5c-476e-bd94-bcb2019c533f_517x401.png" alt="Graph showing three overlapping error distributions with mean values of 10^-3 and 10^-6." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!509b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F327cd7a2-30ae-41ff-be79-fa89fc79c68d_412x274.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!509b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F327cd7a2-30ae-41ff-be79-fa89fc79c68d_412x274.png" alt="Scatter plot showing orange and blue data points with diagonal dashed line." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4JsO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a221185-a33b-48c8-82a9-587fa2eebd4b_621x503.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4JsO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a221185-a33b-48c8-82a9-587fa2eebd4b_621x503.png" alt="Two distribution graphs comparing grounded versus speculative estimates and actual values." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>
June 11, 202612 min
“Incumbents Might Be Replaced During AI Takeoff, Including in Animal Agriculture” by Hazo
<p> I used an LLM to help draft this post and it likely contains >10% AI-generated text, but I’ve edited/rewritten it extensively and endorse it.</p><p><strong> TL;DR</strong></p><p> It's unclear how much the intelligence explosion will directly affect agriculture, because it's one of the least cognitive-labor-intensive industries. But the industrial explosion that may follow could make even animal agriculture susceptible to disruptive innovation (possibly the only time in history that's true). This suggests that during AI-takeoff current incumbents could be replaced by AI-native startups. Given this, advocates should weigh influencing current companies less, take AI-native ag startups (and disrupting the industry themselves) seriously, and treat "AI-pilled" alternative protein as a distinct strategy.</p><p><strong> Disruptive Innovation</strong></p><p> We're possibly at the early stages of an intelligence explosion, which many believe will radically change the economy. How exactly the transition will work is less clear.</p><p> There are two broad possibilities: one is that current companies (e.g. Tyson in the context of animal agriculture) will navigate the AI-transition, adopt new technologies, become AI-native in the relevant ways, and continue to dominate their respective industries in the future. The other is that a separate AI-native startup will directly compete against incumbents via disruption innovation. </p><p> Disruptive innovation, as [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:21) TL;DR</p><p>(01:01) Disruptive Innovation</p><p>(05:12) AI-pilled agriculture</p><p>(09:15) Practical Ramifications</p> <p>---</p>
<p><b>First published:</b><br/>
June 9th, 2026 </p>
<p><b>Source:</b><br/>
<a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/25JqQX8bBgG3gZY9n/incumbents-might-be-replaced-during-ai-takeoff-including-in?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/25JqQX8bBgG3gZY9n/incumbents-might-be-replaced-during-ai-takeoff-including-in</a> </p>
<p>---</p>
<p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>
<p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/25JqQX8bBgG3gZY9n/clssoiqarpeo6hwthci3" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/25JqQX8bBgG3gZY9n/clssoiqarpeo6hwthci3" alt="This was made by Claude without much checking, don’t take it too literally" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>
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