Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. Felix — alongside his golden retriever Winston — interprets the economy and markets.
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October 23, 202619 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: Why $1.2 Trillion Vanished And What It Means For Your Portfolio
A $1.2 trillion Nasdaq plunge looks like a crash, but we break down why it is a targeted AI trade sell-off with money rotating into defensive sectors. We also explain what hedge funds are doing, why junk-rated AI project debt matters, and how to think about protecting your portfolio when the S&P 500 starts moving with a handful of AI names. • the real meaning of AI derating and why valuations reset • Tesla CapEx cuts, Meta credit risk signals, and weak guidance as catalysts • how hedge funds short stocks and why positioning hits five-year extremes • what a short squeeze is and why snapbacks punish panic sellers • why equal-weight S&P 500 strength points to sector rotation • where the money goes: staples, utilities, healthcare, financials • how project finance and junk bonds fund AI data centers • why rising correlation can turn an AI problem into an index problem • a high-probability options example on silver with clear risk warnings Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
October 22, 202624 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: Why Central Banks Keep Buying Gold As Prices Fall
Gold drops more than 3% in a day, yet central banks and top Wall Street research desks keep leaning into gold. We break down the short-term forces hitting the price, the long-term reasons demand is surging, and the practical ways to own gold without getting trapped by fees or bad storage. • central banks buying gold at roughly five times the old monthly pace • how Goldman Sachs estimates hidden buying with real-time trade data • why Bank of America frames the trade as long gold and anything but the dollar • the real reason the price falls when oil rises and the Fed is expected to hike • how rising US debt service and bond yields change the investing landscape • crowding out from private borrowing and why hard assets get attention • financial repression as a stealth way to shrink debt through inflation • separating the short-term rate story from the long-term reserve story • setting a plan: decide how much before when and define your calm level • how to buy gold via physical, allocated vaulting, or gold-backed funds • premiums, dealer red flags, and why allocated beats unallocated Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
October 19, 202624 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: When The Money Gets Rewritten
A currency reset can quietly rewrite the value of your savings while you are still playing by the old rules. We lay out a calm plan built around what holds value outside fragile promises, plus the simple tests we use to spot businesses that can survive inflation and tightening money. • Defining a currency reset in plain terms and why it can feel quieter than a crash • Explaining how savings and pensions become claims inside the system that can be written down • Showing why the careful saver can be more exposed than the gambler • Breaking down three asset classes that tend to hold value when old money gets devalued • Physical gold as hard money plus the key risk of paper gold claims • Property as shelter and utility plus the downside of being easy to tax and impossible to move • Why productive and self-sufficient property is more resilient than fragile “address value” • The mortgage twist where fixed debt can shrink in real terms if payments stay affordable • Why stocks are not one single thing and how pricing power can preserve real value • Three stock filters we use: pricing power, something hard to copy, and manageable debt • Why diversification matters and why going all-in on one hedge can backfire Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
October 19, 202623 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: How AI Infrastructure Fueled By Borrowing Can Break Markets
We break down why CoreWeave, a little-known AI “NeoCloud” lender-dependent business, may be the first crack in the AI plumbing that index funds rely on. We connect insider selling, distressed debt pricing, and credit default swap signals to a bigger question: whether AI is facing a borrowed-money reset similar to the dot-com era. • CoreWeave’s business model of buying NVIDIA chips and renting AI compute by the hour • Founder share sales and why Form 4 insider filings matter for ordinary investors • How bond prices, yields, and credit default swaps can warn before stocks react • The dot-com “plumbing” lesson from Cisco, Amazon, and the Nasdaq drawdown timeline • Why a reset can shift money toward owners of scarce compute and away from heavy borrowers • Goldman Sachs’ key warning about too much capital chasing too little power-ready compute • What we watch next: Nasdaq technical levels, debt insurance costs, earnings delivery, insider alerts Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
October 17, 202624 min
AI Lending Risk: How Banks Earn Fees And Transfer Exposure
AI lending has become a case study in how Wall Street's fee machine operates. In this episode, Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker, traces the mechanics of a five billion dollar loan arranged by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan for AI chip company Volta Infrastructure. The banks collected fees but declined to hold most of the loan, placing 3.7 billion dollars on a best efforts basis for sale to pension funds and insurers. The loan carries an 11 per cent interest rate, well above the junk bond average of 8 per cent. Meanwhile Oracle's data centre debt is trading below face value, with bankruptcy insurance costs at levels not seen since 2009. Prehn notes that Goldman's own trading desk advised institutional clients to derisk from AI exposure in the same week its research analysts issued buy recommendations, illustrating how different parts of one institution serve different purposes within the transaction machine. In this episode: 00:00 Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan refused to hold their own AI chip loan 03:03 How the bank fee machine works in plain terms 05:06 Risk transfer from banks to pension funds and insurers 09:40 Bank price targets on Meta, Micron and Nvidia 11:12 Price targets feed the transaction and fee cycle 12:44 Goldman traders tell institutional clients to derisk from AI 13:48 Volta Infrastructure loan structure and best efforts clause 15:48 Eleven per cent interest rate signals elevated risk Sources mentioned: Goldman Sachs, https://www.goldmansachs.com JP Morgan, https://www.jpmorgan.com Morgan Stanley, https://www.morganstanley.com BNP Paribas, https://www.bnpparibas.com Truist, https://www.truist.com Cantor Fitzgerald, https://www.cantor.com Oracle, https://www.oracle.com Volta Infrastructure Bitdeer, https://www.bitdeer.com Anthropic, https://www.anthropic.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
October 16, 202624 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: Who Really Funds The AI Boom
We break down a $5 billion AI chip loan that major banks arranged, took fees on, and then mostly refused to hold, because the real story is risk transfer, not technology. We show how bullish AI research, quiet de-risking by trading desks, and “best efforts” loan language can point to the same machine pushing exposure toward pensions and insurers. • banks earning upfront fees while offloading loan risk to institutional buyers • why “best efforts” changes who holds the bag when demand dries up • how price targets and bullish research keep the transaction machine running • a direct contrast between research saying buy and traders saying de-risk • what an 11% loan rate signals about AI infrastructure credit risk • Nvidia’s unusual position as both chip seller and investor in the borrower • Oracle data center debt stress as a broader sign of tightening AI financing • how AI data centers link to energy demand, grid buildouts, and oil pricing • the practical skill gap: learning financial vocabulary to read headlines differently Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
October 15, 202626 min
Silver To S&P 500 Ratio: Why It Signals A Historic Low
Silver priced against the S&P 500 is sitting near its lowest reading in half a century, a level that has preceded every major multi-year silver rally of the past fifty years. In this episode Felix Nikolas Prehn traces two rule changes driving the shift. First, Basel 3 net stable funding requirements now force banks to hold 85 per cent cash backing against unallocated paper silver, pushing them towards physical metal and raising costs on what was once a profit centre. Second, China replaced its 25 year old silver export regime at the start of this year with tight licensing, restricting outflows from refiners that handle an estimated 60 to 70 per cent of global refined silver exports. Meanwhile COMEX registered inventories have fallen from 114 million ounces to roughly 76 million, the world has run a silver supply deficit for six consecutive years, and the solar industry alone consumes about 20 per cent of annual mine output. Felix outlines a three signal framework and stresses that silver remains highly volatile. In this episode: 00:00 Silver to S&P 500 ratio near a 50 year low 03:00 How the ratio chart has preceded past silver rallies 07:00 Basel 3 and the 85 per cent unallocated silver funding rule 10:52 China tightens silver export licensing after 25 years 14:11 Chinese silver imports surge and solar demand at 20 per cent of supply 16:36 COMEX vault drawdowns and paper leverage at 7.6 to 1 19:00 Three signal framework for silver and stocks 22:47 Volatility warning and risk management guidance Sources mentioned: Bank for International Settlements (Basel 3), https://www.bis.org Silver Institute (World Silver Survey), https://www.silverinstitute.org COMEX (CME Group), https://www.cmegroup.com Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com Brinks, https://www.brinks.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
October 15, 202620 min
Petrodollar System: Saudi Arabia, Gold And The Dollar
The petrodollar system built in 1974 tied Saudi oil sales to the dollar and recycled the proceeds into American assets. Felix Nikolas Prehn explains how the recent missile strike on Riyadh's main airport has accelerated a quiet shift in Saudi Arabia's security and financial alignments. With defence pacts now signed with Turkey and Pakistan, and calls going to Paris and Islamabad rather than Washington, the episode examines whether the other side of the original bargain still holds. It covers Saudi Arabia's sale of roughly 11 billion dollars in US treasuries in a single month, the fixed riyal peg maintained since 1986, the mBridge payment system that bypasses the dollar, and central banks continuing to buy gold through its worst quarter since 2013. Prehn argues the key signal to watch is Saudi Arabia's official gold reserves, a number that has barely moved for years but may soon start climbing. In this episode: 00:00 Missile strike on Riyadh airport and US response 00:57 Origins of the 1974 petrodollar arrangement 04:07 The Saudi riyal peg and foreign reserves 06:30 Saudi treasury sales and shifting alliances 07:48 Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea and shipping costs 09:07 mBridge and alternatives to dollar settlement 10:18 Central banks buying gold into a downturn 10:59 Portfolio checks for oil shock exposure Sources mentioned: The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), https://www.sama.gov.sa mBridge (BIS project), https://www.bis.org Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
October 14, 202621 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: What Happens When Interest Costs Outrun Growth
I break down the growing signs that the US Treasury is leaning on the bond market while long-term yields keep rising anyway. Then I connect that bond math to real life: mortgage rates, inflation pressure tied to AI spending, and how concentrated the stock market has become. • how Treasury yields act as the price of money for mortgages, loans, and pensions • why foreign demand is fading and why the Fed is no longer the default buyer • what Treasury buybacks signal and why shifting to short-term bills changes the risk • Morgan Stanley’s R versus G framework and what happens when interest costs outrun growth • how AI investment can push inflation higher through chips, hardware, and software pricing • why AI-driven stock market concentration looks like a classic bubble setup • three practical moves: map what you own, check companies for debt risk, stop assuming long bonds are safe Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
October 13, 202620 min
Japan Bond Crisis And The Dollar: Why Gold Is Not Ready
Japan's 30-year government bond yield hit a record 4.18 per cent, a event Felix Nikolas Prehn argues is a dress rehearsal for what awaits the United States and other heavily indebted economies. The episode traces the so-called widow maker trade, which bet against Japanese bonds for three decades and has now finally paid off, wiping more than 200 billion dollars from Japanese equities in a single session. Prehn draws parallels between today's AI-driven speculation and the NASDAQ bubble of 2000, noting that global yields have reached levels not seen since 2007 or earlier. He examines how the dollar has lost roughly 88 per cent of its purchasing power since 1971 and warns that the paper gold market carries far more claims than physical metal in vaults. Many gold funds, he notes, hold no actual bars, leaving holders with promises rather than protection. In this episode: 00:00 Japan's 30-year bond yield hits an all-time high of 4.18 per cent 01:00 The widow maker trade finally pays off after three decades 05:02 How the Bank of Japan suppressed rates by buying its own debt 06:02 The yen weakens as the price of sustained money printing 07:02 AI capital spending collides with rising global interest rates 08:04 Parallels between today's valuations and the NASDAQ 2000 crash 10:05 US 30-year yields touch 5.3 per cent amid a global bond sell-off 12:09 The dollar has lost 88 per cent of purchasing power since 1971 Sources mentioned: Financial Times (global bond sell-off reporting), https://www.ft.com Warren Buffett (referenced via associate remarks on internet bubble) Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve) Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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