Episodes
334
Latest episode
Oct 2026
Language
EN-US
Podcasts from Confluence Investment Management LLC, featuring the periodic Confluence of Ideas series, two bi-weekly series: the Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly and the Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report (new episodes posted on alternating Mondays), and a new monthly Q&A format called the Confluence Mailbag.
The US isn't the only market where bond yields are rising. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors should keep an eye on Europe where the euro has been under pressure.
Investors want to know who will be the ultimate winners from the AI build out. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss lessons from the internet bubble, which might give us some clues.
Bond yields are a major focus for investors these days, but yields alone only tell part of the story. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez shares what real interest rates are telling us about the current state of the economy and how they figure into investment strategy.
Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller return for another Confluence Mailbag episode to tackle listener questions on rising interest rates and the war in the Middle East. With no clear end in sight to the conflict, they examine elevated oil prices and the importance of energy diversification. They also consider how gold’s role as a portfolio hedge might be changing and, with the AI trade looking long in the tooth, share which defensive sectors look most attractive right now. Submit your question for a future episode to: mailbag@confluenceim.com .
Oil has been very much in the public eye with prices rising to over $100 a barrel, and there is currently no end in sight for the Iran war. Many analysts, though, were surprised that oil did not increase even more during the first six months of the war. The main reason appears to be the way China dramatically cut its imports of oil. Confluence Advisory Director Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss whether China is likely to continue this behavior and how investors might respond.
As of mid September, the US bond market seems to be immune to efforts by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to bring yields down. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the current state of the bond market and how investors might respond.
Conservative investors, as a rule, construct their portfolios to, if not anticipate a recession, at least acknowledge the possibility of one. But in doing so, these investors may not fully participate in market rallies. But what if recessions are less common than they used to be? Are these conservative investors needlessly missing out? Confluence Chief Market Strategist, Patrick Fearon Hernandez, joins Phil Adler to address these questions and discuss the investment implications.
Investors worried about a possible AI bubble can point to a number of reasons, including rising valuations and debt. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss another concern, China's threat to the AI investment boom.
In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.
Great Britain's economic regression the past few years is notable and well documented. So is the long parade of failed prime ministers. Can the newest one make a difference in a way that will matter for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss what we can expect from new the UK prime minister, Andy Burnham.
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