CFB Talks Digital Assets

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Oct 2026

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CFB Talks Digital Assets is the home of informed conversation about crypto from CF Benchmarks. We are the first and leading digital asset index provider, authorized and regulated by the UK FCA. Respected and innovative financial institutions use our indices and reference rates to power regulated financial instruments, like listed derivatives, investment funds and structured products. Join CF Benchmarks’ Head of Content, Ken Odeluga, Head of Research, Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst, Mark Pilipczuk, as they talk with some of the most accomplished and influential figures in finance, about everything affecting digital assets — crypto protocols, markets, fund flows, on-chain metrics, macroeconomics and more.

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October 22, 202658 min

Payward's Ben Gray on GENIUS Rules & Regulation After Clarity

In this week’s CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 22, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and special guest Ben Gray, Kraken’s Chief Legal Officer, for a discussion spanning macro, markets and regulation. Bitcoin traded near $82,000 as a tech-led, risk-off rotation hit equities, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 5% and Brent crude above $110. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows continued, yet leverage and macro headlines kept pressure on price. The panel then turns to the regulatory calendar. The OCC finalized the first federal rule under the GENIUS Act on October 21, and the Senate’s September 15 cloture vote on the CLARITY Act failed 49 to 50. Ben explains what both mean for stablecoin rewards, trust charters and a market structure framework now being written by agencies rather than Congress. Chapters: 00:00 Intro & Welcome 02:41 Meet Ben Gray: From Federal Regulator to Kraken CLO 07:35 Bitcoin Near $82K: Tech Rotation & the ETF Flow Divergence 18:30 The OCC Finalizes Its First GENIUS Act Rule 21:17 Stablecoin Rewards: How Regulators Will Judge Yield 26:40 Banks vs. Stablecoins: Lobbying & the ICBA Lawsuit 35:28 Rules Without Congress: What the SEC & CFTC Can Deliver 39:02 Five-Year Exemptions & the SEC to CFTC Handoff 43:17 How Sticky Is Agency Rulemaking? 46:00 The SEC Innovation Exemption: Scope & Early Uptake 48:50 Week Ahead: FOMC, Big Tech Earnings & PCE 54:43 Ben’s Watchlist: Midterms & the CFTC’s Exchange Framework

October 15, 20261 hr 0 min

Stablecoin Banking, Hot CPI, and The October FOMC Meeting

In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 15, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk. Special guest Bivu Das, Kraken’s UK General Manager and head of Payment Services, also joins to discuss the team’s new paper on stablecoin payments infrastructure. The first half unpacks where banks and fintechs are starting with stablecoins, why balances are the most exposed pool of capital, and what Kraken’s agreed acquisition of a Lithuanian bank signals about crypto and TradFi convergence. The second half turns to macro: a hotter core CPI print, falling long-end yields, and whether the Fed should hold or hike at its October meeting. Chapters: 00:00 Intro & Team Welcome 02:19 Meet Bivu Das: Kraken UK & Payment Services 03:40 Stablecoins & the Opportunity 05:08 What Banks & Fintechs Want from Stablecoins 08:42 Three Pools of Capital: Which Gets Disrupted First? 17:04 Kraken’s Bank Acquisition 21:42 Stablecoin Yield: GENIUS, the OCC & MiCA 27:08 Central Banks Pilot Stablecoin Rails 29:34 Is Deposit Flight Overblown? 35:41 Fixing Fiat On & Off Ramps 39:32 Macro: Hot Core CPI, Falling Yields 41:11 October FOMC: Hike or Hold? 45:23 Why Long-End Yields Fell Despite Inflation 50:39 Rate Hikes Before Elections: What History Says 56:09 Bitcoin Key Levels 57:33 Week Ahead: Earnings, Auctions & GENIUS Comments

October 8, 20261 hr 1 min

Crypto Correction, Rising Yields, and Q3 Earnings Season

In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 8, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA, is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, for a wide-ranging discussion of macro, earnings and crypto market structure. With the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3%, its highest level since 2002, and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting pointing to another rate increase this year, the panel examines what higher yields mean for risk assets and bank balance sheets. Against that backdrop, expected Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 29.5% brings corporate performance and AI capital spending into focus. The conversation then turns to September’s divergent altcoin returns, the SEC’s innovation exemption and the proposed accredited investor exam. Chapters 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 01:16 – Market Check: Bitcoin Rejected at $87K as the 10-Year Yield Tops 5.3% 02:27 – On Our Screens: Retracement Levels, Moving Averages & Crude Oil 11:10 – Implied Rate Path: October Pause, December in Focus 12:59 – Labor Market: Cracks or Just a Lull? 15:04 – The Fed’s Breadth Problem: Healthcare Carries Job Growth 22:07 – The Disconnect: Yields at 2002 Levels, Equities Near Highs 23:56 – Why Real Yields Are Rising: Deficits & AI Hyperscaler Capital Needs 26:59 – Bond Losses & Bank Balance Sheets: Revisiting the SVB Playbook 30:35 – Who Is Buying the Debt? 32:27 – Late-Cycle Rally, Concentration Risk & What Could Break It 36:27 – Q3 Earnings Preview: 29.5% Growth Led by Energy, Tech & Communication Services 39:14 – AI Earnings, Bank Dealmaking & Estimate Revisions 42:20 – Returns on CapEx: Free Cash Flow & Hyperscaler Financing 44:32 – September Attribution: Fundamentals & Fee Revenue Drive Altcoin Gains 45:41 – Sector Dispersion: DeFi Outpaces Equities, Bitcoin Dominance Holds Near 60% 48:23 – Innovation Exemption & the Regulatory Catalyst Pipeline 59:31 – Week Ahead: Bank Earnings, CPI, PPI & ETF Flows

October 1, 202659 min

Bond Vigilantes, Innovation Exemptions, & Fee Switches: Inside the CFB Q4 Outlook

In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 1, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA for a discussion spanning macro, global rates and on-chain markets. BEA revisions to how it prices portfolio management, software and legal services helped pull August core PCE down to 3.0%, below the 3.3% consensus, and October rate hike odds fell to roughly 35%. The UK 30-year gilt yield crossed 6% for the first time since 1998. Crypto kept rallying after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15. The team ties these threads to the central finding of the Q4 2026 Market Outlook, "Numbers Over Narrative." Since June 30, the ten highest-revenue tokens in the CF investable universe returned about 80% on average, against roughly 18% for the ten lowest. The Outlook is free at cfbenchmarks.com under Research and Insights. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 00:49 – August Core PCE: Softer Inflation or a New Ruler? 07:39 – October Rate Hike Odds Halve, December Still Priced In 09:46 – September Scorecard: The CF DeFi Composite Outruns the Broad Market 11:21 – Why Crypto Rallied Through a Failed Clarity Vote 19:20 – UK 30-Year Gilt Hits 6%: Fiscal Stress or Higher Real Yields? 23:20 – Interest Expense, Treasury Buybacks & the Intervention Question 28:51 – What to Watch: Peripheral Spreads, Auction Tails & the TGA 31:05 – Bond ETF Inflows, Pensions & the Coupon Case for Duration 36:15 – Q4 Outlook: Numbers Over Narrative 37:06 – Macro Backdrop: Thin Consumer Cushion & the Fed's Path 40:55 – Revenue to Be Rewarded: Fee Switches & Token Returns 43:30 – Tokenized Equities Scale Toward $3 Billion 46:43 – Beyond Crypto: Single Stock Perps & 24/7 Markets 48:18 – U.S. Perps Ahead: HIP-3, Retail vs. Institutions & Producer Hedging 52:14 – Bitcoin 10-Year Capital Market Assumptions Update 55:07 – Week Ahead: Jobs, FOMC Minutes, Senate Recess, ETF Flows & Treasury Auctions

September 24, 202658 min

The Bitcoin Bottom Explained

In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 24, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk are joined by Bitwise Europe's Head of Research André Dragosch and Research Analyst Max Shannon to unpack the two teams' joint report, "The Bitcoin Bottom Explained." With the US 10-year yield above 5.1% and the Fed back in hiking mode, the panel first weighs whether the sovereign bond rout spills over into equities and crypto. The conversation then turns to the two independent frameworks, Bitwise's on-chain model and the CF Benchmarks market cycle engine, that both point to June 30 at $58,000 as the likely cycle low, before stress-testing the bear case and closing with the week ahead. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Welcome: Bitwise Europe Joins the Space 02:29 – The Global Sovereign Bond Rout 07:26 – MOVE vs VIX: A Bond-Equity Disconnect 09:28 – Is the Fed Behind the Curve? The Shadow Rate Signal 12:07 – Crypto Check-In: ETF Flows & Key Levels 14:44 – CME Basis Expansion & the ETH/BTC Rotation 19:45 – The Bitcoin Bottom Explained 23:31 – Bitwise's On-Chain Model: Seller Exhaustion Meets Demand 26:01 – CFB's Market Cycle Engine: Regimes, Breadth & Thrust 32:56 – Forward Returns & Regime-Flip Alpha 39:16 – Steelmanning the Bears: Is Another Leg Down Possible? 42:58 – M2 Growth, Correlations & the Decoupling Debate 46:19 – The Alligator Jaw: Bitcoin vs Global Money Supply 47:38 – AI Equity Rollover Risk 51:58 – Week Ahead: Key Things to Watch

September 3, 202654 min

Bitcoin's Breakout, The Fed's September Decision, & The New CME CF Indices

In a CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 3, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, and CF Benchmarks Head of Product Thomas Erdosi. Fed rate hike odds for the September 16 meeting swung from roughly two-thirds to a coin flip inside 24 hours, after Governor Waller signaled support for holding steady and Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks got read as more hawkish than intended. The panel works through what the data between now and the decision, NFP tomorrow and CPI on September 11, would need to show to settle the debate, then turns to Bitcoin's push through $80,000 on the broadest market breadth of the year. The back half covers the Middle East-driven oil spike and its interaction with the debasement trade, a sizable new Treasury buyback program, and closes with a first look at two new benchmarks: the CME CF Crypto Market Index and CME CF Emerging Crypto Index, plus the launch of the CF Benchmarks Oracle for on-chain price verification. Chapters: 00:00 – Disclaimer & Team Welcome 00:49 – September Rate Hike Odds Swing to a Coin Flip 03:09 – Base Case: Hold, With Oil as the Wildcard 05:41 – Warsh's Ambiguity and the FOMC's Historical Hiking Pattern 13:24 – Bitcoin's Push Above $80K 16:02 – Options Positioning Turns Less Lopsided to the Downside 17:23 – Key Levels: Eyeing a Push Toward $90K 18:40 – ETF Flows and MicroStrategy's Return to Buying 24:20 – CME vs. IBIT: Where the Call Buying Is Concentrated 28:06 – Tracking Vol With the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index 29:25 – Middle East Escalation and the Debasement Trade 34:07 – Germany's Fiscal Pivot and European Defense Spending 37:01 – Market Breadth: The Broadest Rally of the Year 39:08 – Getting Altcoin Exposure Beyond Bitcoin and Ether 40:14 – Inside the New CME CF Crypto Market and Emerging Crypto Indices 41:23 – Index Construction: Durability, Product Fit and Filters 46:02 – The CF Benchmarks Oracle Goes On-Chain 48:57 – Week Ahead: NFP, CPI, Fed Decision & Treasury Auctions

August 27, 20261 hr 2 min

The Debasement Trade Returns, AI Rotation Takes Shape, and CFB Launches the GPU Rental Index

In this CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded August 27, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, Senior Product Manager Cristian Isac and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, along with two guests: David Lawant, Head of Research at Anchorage Digital, and Pascal Hügli, Crypto Investment Manager at Maerki Baumann and author of the Less Noise, More Signal Substack. The debasement trade is back. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of the long end buyback program on August 19, Bitcoin led the response and gold barely moved. The panel works through what that repricing means for positioning: whether debasement is a trade or a secular regime, what the CME basis, options skew and breadth data say about where we sit in the cycle, why fund flows point to capital rotating out of AI and back into crypto, and what to expect as Jackson Hole convenes on financial innovation and payments. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Panel Welcome 04:29 – Defining the Debasement Trade: Henry VIII, Nero & a $40 Trillion Debt Load 06:13 – Buybacks, the TGA & Bessent's "Whatever It Takes" Signal 10:21 – Bitcoin Leads, Gold Lags: Trade or Secular Regime? 11:11 – Anatomy of an Oversold Market: Apathy, Bad News & a $1 Billion Volume Day 17:25 – Fund Flows: The DRAM ETF as an AI Rotation Proxy 20:21 – IBIT Volume, $2.5 Billion of Flows & Why This Tape Looks Different 22:22 – CME Basis Off Multi-Year Lows: Fast Money Moves First 24:50 – The Coinbase Premium & Waiting on the Broader Market 26:42 – Basis Trade Mechanics: Who Takes the Other Side? 30:40 – Forward Call Skew: Buying Upside Instead of Protection 33:39 – Inside the Market Cycle Engine: Breadth & Momentum 38:30 – Is It Durable? August's Rally Compared to May's 40:15 – Beyond Bitcoin: Hyperliquid Onshoring & the DeFi Revenue Complex 44:24 – Altcoin Catch-Up, CLARITY Act Odds & "Buyback as a Business Model" 48:11 – Week Ahead: Jackson Hole Turns to Payments & Financial Innovation 57:00 – Launching the CF Benchmarks GPU Rental Index 1:01:04 – Closing Remarks

August 20, 20261 hr 4 min

New on CME: CFB's Basket Indices, the Bessent Put, and Our Jackson Hole Preview

In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded August 20, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, with CF Benchmarks CEO Sui Chung joining as a special guest for a landmark product announcement. The panel unveils two new benchmarks, the CME CF Crypto Market Index (CMI) and the CME CF Emerging Crypto Index (ECI), set to launch on August 31, before turning to a frenetic twenty-four hours in markets: a US Treasury long end buyback increase that failed to hold yields down for even one session, a sharp Bitcoin breakout past key resistance, and a first look at the July FOMC minutes ahead of next week's Jackson Hole symposium, where Kevin Warsh takes the podium. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 01:33 – Breaking: CME and CF Benchmarks Announce Two New Crypto Indices 03:15 – Why Build Both a Market Index and an Emerging Leaders Index? 08:47 – Inside CMI's Universe: From 1,000 Tokens to the Top 12 14:57 – Product Market Fit: The Rule That Sets CMI Apart 20:19 – Unveiling ECI: Crypto's Satellite Sleeve 26:29 – ECI by the Numbers: Fees, TVL, Users & the DeFi Leaders Behind Them 28:32 – Why Launch Now? Regulatory Clarity Meets Market Timing 31:27 – Treasury's $4 Billion Buyback Bet Meets the Bessent Put 35:47 – Deficits, Duration & Why Crypto Is Outperforming Big Tech 41:13 – Bitcoin's Breakout: Reflexivity and the Levels to Watch 48:55 – FOMC Minutes Recap: AI Inflation Chatter and a Balance Sheet Task Force 52:35 – Jackson Hole Preview: What Will Warsh Say? 1:01:30 – Week Ahead: PCE, Fund Flows, MSTR & the Treasury Auction Slate

August 13, 20261 hr 1 min

Our Read on Inflation, Clarity's Odds of Passage & DeFi's Revenue Era

In this CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded August 13, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo for a roundtable covering markets, macro, and Fed policy, with a surprise appearance from Bitwise Research Analyst Ishmael Asad. Chapters:00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 02:46 – Strategy's STRC Preferred: Racing Back to Par 08:02 – ETH Treasury Preferreds, Issuance & the EIP That Could Lower Staking Rewards 11:35 – July CPI: A Setup for a Fed Pause? 16:43 – Bitcoin vs. Stocks vs. Gold: Who Wins on CPI Surprises? 19:52 – Oil, Iran & the Fed's Reaction Function 25:33 – 2022 Redux? Comparing Today's Labor Market to the Last Hiking Cycle 32:38 – Jackson Hole Preview: What to Expect From Chair Warsh 37:33 – Clarity Act: Reading the September Senate Vote 44:47 – DeFi's Revenue Era: Hyperliquid, Aave, Uniswap & Pump.fun 47:31 – Tokenized Equities: The Next 10x for RWAs 51:28 – The Return of Buybacks: DeFi's Value Accrual Thesis 54:25 – From Layer 1s to App Layer: Where Fees Actually Accrue 57:30 – Week Ahead: Jackson Hole, Clarity & ETF Flows

August 6, 20261 hr 7 min

Signs of a Bitcoin Bottom, Vault Adoption & The Fed's September Meeting

Has Bitcoin bottomed and what could determine its next move? Recorded live on August 6, 2026, this episode of CF Benchmarks X Space examines Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold and the Nasdaq, the growing adoption of on-chain asset-management vaults, and the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. CF Benchmarks Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA, is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk; Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA; CF Benchmarks Senior Product Manager James Flamant; Head of Business Development Peter Stern; and special guest André Dragosch, PhD, Director and Head of Research for Europe at Bitwise. The panel begins with Bitcoin near $64,000, Brent crude below $80 and a softer-than-expected ADP employment report. They assess whether Bitcoin has formed a bottom, what market breadth and return dispersion suggest about the broader cycle, and which indicators they are watching next. The conversation then turns to on-chain asset-management vaults: how they work, where they sit on the adoption curve, and why curation, valuation and round-the-clock creation and redemption introduce risks that investors must understand. The episode closes with a discussion of oracle reliability, the safeguards needed for on-chain derivatives, and whether a September rate hike is now off the table. Chapters: 01:38 – Meet André Dragosch: Bitwise Europe's Research Chief 06:45 – Market Snapshot: Bitcoin at $64K, Brent Below $80 & a Soft ADP Print 08:34 – Has Bitcoin Bottomed? The Relative-Value Case vs Gold & the Nasdaq 13:32 – CFB's Market Cycle Engine: Market Breadth, Return Dispersion & a Still-Bearish Structure 17:41 – What Thomas Perfumo is Watching 23:00 – James Shares What's on His Watchlist 24:06 – A View From Sales: The Summer Lull & the Wealth-Platform Unlock 25:12 – On-Chain Asset Management: What a Vault Actually Is 28:26 – Curation, Valuation & 24/7 Create-Redeem: The Index Provider's View 34:58 – Where Vaults Sit on the Adoption Curve 44:01 – Oracle Robustness: The Weakest Link in On-Chain Derivatives 52:15 – Rapid Fire: Is a September Rate Hike Dead? 59:24 – Week Ahead: NFP, CPI, ETP Flows & CLARITY's Last Gasp 1:07:27 – Closing Remarks

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