Find partners
The Future of Education

The Future of Education

Hosted by Michael B. Horn

EntrepreneurshipEducationInterviews guests

Episodes

139

Latest episode

Jun 2026

Language

EN

About the show

Interviews with the top innovators & changemakers so that you can stay on top of the trends transforming transform learning, education, and the development of talent worldwide so that all individuals can build their passions, fulfill their potential, and live a life of purpose michaelbhorn.substack.com

Listen to episodes

60 recent
June 15, 202648 min

Tomorrow Schools: 7 Microschools Offering a Window Into the Future

Four of my former Harvard master’s degree students—Ruben Villarreal-Halprin, Matthew Millikin, Jaysan Shah, and William Wiltshire—joined me to discuss their independent study project exploring seven diverse microschools across the United States: the Village School, Elizabeth City-Pasquotank Public Schools microschool, NuVu, the Levitt Lab, Khan Lab School, Red Bridge, and Alpha School. Several of these I’ve featured here before; others are new. The conversation dove into the range of models, philosophies, and uses of technology and AI within each school to reflect on the spectrum of innovation in schooling, the challenges and opportunities of choice, and the importance of creating learning environments that both lift the floor and blow through the ceiling for students. I look forward to your thoughts and where you all want to learn more!Show Notes:Tomorrow Schools on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomorrow-schools-50881b3b6Michael HornWelcome to the Future of Education. I’m Michael Horn. You’re joining the show where we’re dedicated to creating a world in which all individuals can build their passions, fulfill their potential and live lives of purpose. And to help us think through that, today I’m, I’m really excited. I’ve got four of my former students. I say former because not only did I teach them several months ago at this point, but they’re all graduates now at, at Harvard. So congratulations to them. They all made it through the rapid fire year that is the Harvard Graduate School of Education experience.But welcome guys. We’ve got Jaysan, Matthew, William, Ruben, all just amazing. You’re all amazing. You all come from really cool different backgrounds with education. And, first, welcome. And then second, I, I’ll say the reason I wanted to talk to you guys is because in the second semester you chose to do an independent study with me for some, you know, inane reason of wanting to continue to work with me, but you did it around a series of microschools that are emerging that in your words, like start to allow us to question the principles of what is a school? What’s the purpose of schooling in this era of AI? What are the things that are most important perhaps, or how can we think about things perhaps differently from how we have? And you did these deep dives into these seven microschools around the country and got to visit and spend time in all of them and create some really cool rapport and reflections around them. And I wanted to dig deeper with you on the podcast about it. So welcome.Maybe let’s start, just go around, if you will, the proverbial virtual studio and, and just sort of give the thumbnail sketch of who you are, your background. Why this was an interesting conversation for you to do research in for an entire semester. And we’ll, we’ll start there. So William, why don’t you jump in first?William WiltshireSure, yeah. Thank you so much, Michael, for having us. I was a middle school math and history teacher in New York City before coming to the Harvard Graduate School of Education at a charter school. And charters were thought to be the innovation to traditional education when they kind of started gaining momentum. And in my teaching experience there, I enjoyed my time and loved working with the kids, but there was certainly nothing innovative about the role of a teacher in that school. State test was kind of the North Star and seat time regulations and requirements were super strict. And so as AI was coming on the scene in the world of education. I started kind of expecting change in my role, but not seeing anything meaningful.And so came to Harvard to try to better understand where the profession is moving and kind of where schools in general are shifting and evolving. And met these three great guys in your class in the fall. And we just kind of went 100 miles an hour on this school visits project. And it was incredible. So, really glad to be here. Excited to keep chatting.Michael HornYeah, let’s do it. So, Ruben, let’s go to you next. Tell us your background. We didn’t officially intersect pre Harvard, but we kind of did because you were at a school that an organization I was a founding board member had funded. So tell. Tell us a little bit about your background and how you jumped into this.Ruben Villarreal-HalprinYeah, we were awfully close to running into each other. I spent three years at that school as an assistant principal. It was in Richmond, California. I ran the humanities department there. Prior to that, eight years teaching humanities as well, all around the country. Memphis, Tennessee, San Francisco. Came back to my hometown of Cambridge in the Ed policy program. This project really excited me. My time in schools.I was really just grinding all the time, like William said, like all of these sorts of pressures coming on, coming down from on high, and was constantly looking at my feet, doing one step at a time. And I was just so excited to get in and see schools and some of the things that they were able to do with teaching. And really, for me, this project was all about, like, opening my eyes to what else was out there. It’s so hard when you’re in the classroom, when you’re in the grind of a school day, to really take time to look around at the other amazing things that are happening around the country in schools. And they’re there. They’re happening all over the place. And so this was awesome opportunity to do just that.Michael HornAnd what you just said really resonates for me. I’m struck constantly by how many teachers, when you describe sort of personalization or things that are possible, they’re like, there’s no way that could happen. I’m like, have you ever been to a Montessori school? They’re like, all over the place in your community. And to your point, almost no one gets into a school that looks different from their own. So it’s very hard to find the time to see those. All right, let’s go to the man from Australia down under. Matthew, talk to us about your background, getting into this space and in education, coming to Harvard, then in your journey.Matthew MillikinYeah, yeah, absolutely. Thanks for having me so I was a mathematics teacher, high school teacher in Canberra, Australia the last couple of years. A lot of my work has been around the human skills of learning and growing and developing. And so I was working a lot on self perception and self efficacy within mathematics and that really led me to this human development pathway and program. What really fascinated me with this project and what kind of brought me together with not only to your class, but also with the other guys was this idea that if school looked different, what capabilities can we grow in the students when we are given some time and some space to very clearly teach the skills that are incredibly important, that are going to be more important with the way that the world and technology is developing. So it’s honestly just been a pleasure to not only be in a different country and see how things are done differently, but also really be at the forefront of what, yeah, innovation is looking like.Michael HornVery cool, Very cool. We’re going to get into that more in just a moment. But Jaysan, give us your background. You’re the man who wasn’t in a school compared to these three guys. So tell us your story.Jaysan ShahYes, definitely. Yeah, I’m very much the odd one out. I was never a teacher if you don’t count being a student instructor in undergrad. But yeah, I’m a cognitive scientist and I was working in neurotechnology before coming to Harvard, working for a company that had designed its own brain mapping headset. Really interested in studying brains in real life situations. And yeah, a lot of my passion was for how really scientific understanding of how the mind works can be really enabled by new technologies and exciting technologies. So I’m in the technology program. I was in the technology program here at Harvard.And when AI and all these new technologies are really creating some interesting conversations, I thought what better time to move over and to see what it’s actually looking like in exciting, innovative schools.Exploring emerging microschoolsMichael HornVery cool. Very cool. Okay, so four very different programs, four very different backgrounds coming into this question of like, what can schooling look like in the future? William, let me start with you here. Why don’t you like, tell us the overview of what you guys actually did. It was like seven different microschools around the country. What was the work itself? What were you looking for as you went in there, there?Why did you guys pick these seven that you did?William WiltshireSure. So we sat down early on in the process and really just kind of started big and then whittled down the pool size. And with your network and, and, and support from other teachers, we identified these seven schools around the country that we thought kind of represented the whole spectrum of what microschools are and what they can be. Size, I think is a common through line of all these microschools. But then we also tried to factor in public versus private versus charter and we tried to factor in kind of socioeconomic status of families and we tried to get the whole range. And so we saw some private institutions, $65,000 a year down to the, in public school district, microschool in rural eastern North Carolina and really everything in between. So we’re really pleased with the seven schools that we chose because we did not want to pigeonhole ourselves into one type of emerging school model.Michael HornAnd I’m curious, all of you, like, let’s list them, right, and sort of maybe start to plot them against these different ways of thinking about it. You got the Village School, microschool in Virginia. You have Elizabeth City public schools, I think it is in North Carolina, more rural, if I’m not mistaken. You got NuVu, which is a sort of evolved from an after-school program into a high school in Cambridge, Massachusetts. You have the Levitt Lab, which is partnership really with Arizona State University for a new school model. The Khan Lab School, which many people will be familiar with who’ve listened to my past podcasts out of Khan Academy and sort of maybe the best way to say it is like Khan Academy is one thing. It’s sort of a narrow slice of what school is. And Sal has always imagined that schooling is actually a much more comprehensive way of thinking. And so the Khan Lab school is sort of like his manifestation, if you will, of that, Red Bridge, which in some ways spun out of Khan Lab School and has some different things that it leans on in San Francisco. And then the one everyone’s hearing about these days, Alpha School, which of course many locations now increasingly not just in the United States. I think they have global ambitions as well that is spreading pretty rapidly.Help us sort of orient right a little bit on the seven schools. Where would you all put them? And maybe anyone can jump in on this and you guys can sort of pick and put them in different segments as you all might have slightly different perspectives on them as well. I don’t know. Open ended. Who wants to jump in? Yeah, yeah.William WiltshireI might just kind of circle back to my original introduction. We chose the spectrum of high tuition, no tuition. But we also thought about kind of two factors and made our kind of X, Y axis. And those two variables were human skill development in teaching and then also tech informed student experience. And so when we were choosing these seven schools, somebody else will jump in after. But we really tried to think about what human skills are they pushing, how hard are they pushing them in comparison to the student experience as informed by their use of technology.Michael HornWho wants to dig in? Yeah, go ahead.Matthew MillikinYeah, I think just a quick comment. I think it was really interesting. Well, while we did definitely try and get that diversity, I think as well, anyone who’s done lots of different school visits knows that you never quite know what you’re going to take away from any school. And I think it was really clear, even though we were doing research and talking to you and talking to other professors and looking at websites and everything like that the actual heart of each school within kind of those two metrics was quite. I think if we were to like, kind of go through the continuum of where we think they were placed before, I think it would be quite different to what our final answers were. And so, yeah, I think, like, by a little bit of luck, we ended up with this incredibly different set of schools. But yeah, it was super interesting from that perspective is that I don’t think that, while it was. It was something that we tried to do, I think that there was definitely this element of movement as we went and saw them on the ground.Michael HornI want to stay with that. That’s like really interesting to me, right? That like, you had a certain perception, you had read, you had heard about a lot of these schools. A lot of these schools are buzzy schools, right? They’ve been on my podcast, they’ve been on other people’s podcasts. In the case of Alpha, they’ve been on much bigger people’s podcasts. Help us. You know what surprised you maybe across these seven schools that led you to say, like, oh, I thought it would be here on that continuum, but actually it’s like, were they closer together? Were they further apart? Was something more tech forward than you expected? Help us? What does that mean?Schools’ approach to learning technologyJaysan ShahYeah, I think I can jump in here a little bit. I was really looking at these schools through the lens of how they’re applying learning sciences and new technologies, specifically things like AI. And I think something that really jumped out at me is that sometimes being tech forward doesn’t necessarily mean that you are using and designing really unique forms of AI, but that you have a really keen understanding of how you want students to be using it and where you think its role is in the school. And I think both of those can count as being very tech forward. It’s really clear when schools have thought deeply about these issues, and I think especially how they’ve thought about what it means to learn and how students learn. And I think really going in, especially schools like Alpha, things like the Khan Lab school, it’s really clear that they have a strong stance on technology and they’re really thinking about the physical tool itself. But then when we went to schools like Red Bridge or Village, where the students might not be using technology as much as they are in those other schools, but they have really clear intentions over what they think its role is in the classroom, it was really exciting. Really shifts my perspective throughout the semester.Michael HornSo maybe let’s start to dig in there. And Ruben, maybe I’ll. I’ll jump with you here and you can pick the one you want to go deep in. I know different ones of you sort of like dug in, if you will, more or less on different models as you designed your full report. But I think, like, for example, I think you did Elizabeth City. Ruben, I think that was one of yours, right? So, like, that’s one model. Where does it sit in this continuum? What does it look like in a public microschool? That seems to be the one that maybe stands out the most in terms of being a district public.It’s not a private structure. Right. It’s. It’s not a whole cloth like reinvention. In some ways, it sits within something we understand.Ruben Villarreal-HalprinYeah. And it’s a really interesting place to start because we showed up there because of their use of AI. Keith Parker, their superintendent, came to Harvard. He spoke in a forum at AskWith about AI. And we showed up and we were just struck by what we took away from it. Yes, it was an in district microschool, but what really felt innovative about ECPPs was their structures and the way they structure around the community. 25 students, a school bus. They have a rolling field trip permission slip.And so their principal and English teacher has a bus license and can load the kids up at any given moment and take them out into the community. And where we actually first caught up with the school was at the local gym. It’s like a regular fitness center in the middle of the day where they were having P.E. class. And they were in a class that looked like, you know, your 11am Pilates class at your local fitness center. And they were doing real workouts. But it showed the way in which this community was really taking on these students and the way that this school, because of the limitations of sort of.Well, I guess like the 25 students in a public school is extremely expensive. Right. And, to build a microschool in that. And so to counteract that, they built these partnerships. So rather than hiring a PE teacher, they do this. Rather than building an art program or building an art studio, they go to the performing arts center down the street and are taught by the people who run that building. And so we were really struck that their use of AI, which was there, and they did math instruction through Khan Academy was just a small part of the bigger picture.Michael HornLet’s stay on that for a moment because that’s really interesting. Right. In some ways they’re basically saying, look, we’re not going to pay for a full time music teacher, a full time gym teacher, a full time. Right. But we’re going to take advantage of the resources our community has. Right. If I’m hearing you correctly, to get actually probably far better instruction. I mean, like.Right. These are like crazy professionals probably in some cases for some of these things. And we’re paying for a fraction. Right. Of their time for a 45 minute block a couple times a week maybe or something like that it sounds like. And so that’s how they get the economic model. Does AI also help like with logistics or that, or is it really about the instruction for AI in that model?Ruben Villarreal-HalprinNo, it was really about the instruction. They had a portion of their day that was, and we caught it at the end where students are just sitting there with their AI programming, learning math working with those programmings and, and sort of getting feedback through their AI system. But it wasn’t, it didn’t expand beyond that that we saw.Michael HornAll right, so maybe then let’s take that as a departure point and go to Village School or Red Bridge or something like that, which I think, Jaysan, you painted as sort of the opposite end of the AI spectrum from, from some of the. I made an assumption here with what you said, right. That maybe Khan and Alpha, very clear AI instructions, sort of. Ruben, how you were just saying, right, in Elizabeth City that it’s sitting there as that instructional core. We understand what it does. Village and Red Bridge, it sounds like, are different from that. How do you know, what are their models look like, where’s AI used and sort of give us a flavor of the day and what you guys observed.Jaysan ShahYeah, I can jump in a little bit, but feel free to add to what I’m saying. But I think Village and Red Bridge weren’t using AI for instruction to really make it a little bit more clear based on what Ruben was saying. But I think what’s really interesting is that both Village and Red Bridge have really thought about what the affordances of something like AI are and where some schools are leaning on personalization of AI as their really big betting point. I think Village and Red Bridge are both similarly thinking about the generative use of AI as something that’s really exciting. So how can we let students still be very self-directed in their way they’re using AI, but instruction and the time in the classroom is still very much a very human interaction. And I think it’s really interesting to see how clearly those designers understand AI and how as a result, I think the students are really keenly aware of what the technology is they’re using, the same way that somebody who is using a computer or smartphone in a very deliberate way is using it. We’re seeing that happen with those students as well.Michael HornMatthew, let me bring you in because you also, I think, spent some time with NuVu, which I’m guessing is the third that has like uses AI sort of in that way of if I’m catching what Jaysan’s saying in terms of creation, right of work as opposed to instruction of work. And I get that can be a false dichotomy, but let’s go with it for a moment. Is that correct, number one? And number two, sort of. What’s your observation off of what Jaysan just said? That and like, how do you make sure these students really know, you know, when I’m using AI well, versus, oh boy, it’s hallucinating on me and doing all sorts of things that are misleading me if I’m a novice, if you will.Learning experiences at NuVuMatthew MillikinYeah, yeah. So, I mean, I think NuVu was so interesting because I thought there would be more use of AI, but because of their incredibly clear value structure for what they’re trying to teach at NuVu, the fact that they’re trying to teach these skills of being a designer, it very much was kind of sectioned off as a tool for students. And so I think the through line, and particularly Village, Red Bridge, NuVu kind of all had this through line that was it was incredibly clear what learning looked like in every single one of those schools. And not just to the point of it was defined and it was talked about. I think that the students knew what learning looked like. Like every student could describe what it felt like to, within the system of that school, go through that productive struggle or what skills beyond the actual curriculum they were trying to build. An example with NuVu is we were talking to a student who had been there for a couple of years. And they were talking about how in the first year they had really learned how to give and receive feedback and how, how that system was and how it was painful and how it was this, this skill that they learned throughout the year.And then we got into this amazing conversation of how that, learning about that giving and receiving feedback led to his development of other skills like writing and how that mentality and that really deliberate curriculum of skills in students allowed him to use the tools within NuVu to better their own learning rather than something that might take away. And so it was interesting. Like another parallel is, Red Bridge really didn’t have no student facing AI within the school. As Jaysan said, they very much were thinking about what was more important and doing trade offs. But I would say that from those students and the fact that they have this incredible definition and clear structure for what learning looks like by this idea of being in autonomy levels and being an autonomous student, I would say that those students would be better protected in using technology because they have such a clear idea of what learning feels like and looks like.Michael HornI want to stay on NuVu for one more moment just because in some ways, in terms of what the curriculum is there, I think, and you guys can push back, but I think they’re probably the furthest out in terms of rethinking what a high school curriculum looks like in terms of all these. It’s certainly not subject matter specific. It’s much more design focused, as you said. I think you can correct me if I’m wrong, but I think, like, you could go four years there and never like, you know, study history, quote unquote, per se, help us understand that curriculum a little bit more and how they’ve made those choices.William WiltshireYeah, I’d love to jump in. NuVu was mind blowing from that traditional charter school teaching background. But so, so in such a positive way. In their freshman year, the students work in kind of studio sprints. So two, three, four weeks, where their autonomy level is lower. And they are still figuring out what it means to be in school at NuVu . And then by senior year, they have eight weeks to work on these studio projects where it’s largely independent. There are adults in the, in the space for support when needed.But these students, over the course of the four years are really figuring out what it means to research a question deeply, use that tool belt that Matt and Jaysan alluded to with where AI is part of it, but not the entire tool belt, and come to an understanding of a topic or that question or whatever it is at a really deep level and an anecdote that I think underscores this type of learning or this curriculum, like you said, Michael, we went to the end of studio exhibition. So at the end of the eight weeks, the students presented their, what they had been doing for the eight weeks. And like you said, it’s not. There’s no history PowerPoint where kids are like rifling through flashcards like you would traditionally see in a school. This one student I’ll never forget was standing in the front of the room with just a command of the room talking about the environmental factors of waste from car bumpers. And I’ll, if you’ll allow me.This student figured out early on in the design studio that every year something like 3 million tons of plastic waste gets put into the environment because of fender benders. This kid went through the process of doing the research, understanding the question and then working with his adults, figuring out a way to create an alternative bumper with a new type of metal that refixes itself under heat. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. This child is not going to be, my bet is he’s not going to be a bumper, a car bumper expert for his entire life. But it was clear as day that he possesses a style of learning that is so deep and so personal and authentic. And that is a, that type of learning is going to benefit him in whatever work he pursues in whatever classroom he’s in for the rest of his life.So that was just something that really struck me from our visit to NuVu.Michael HornThat’s really interesting. And what seems you made a comment when we were talking about this in front of all your peers, William, that like we are pro math and literacy. Right? Like it’s, this is not an either or. Because something that’s incumbent in all of your answers so far is like they are learning knowledge, they are learning these skills and that destination is bigger. That, that doesn’t sound like, you know, you, let’s be candid. You go into some project-based learning schools and like it’s a lot of empty calories in these projects. That doesn’t sound empty at all. It sounds like a lot of depth, if I’m hearing you right.I’d love to hear the contrast or, or, or sort of the vision of what you saw then when you went to Levitt Lab school, which I think is a very different model from, from any of these that are out here today.William WiltshireYeah, I can touch on that too. And then some might feel free to jump in, Levitt has an amazing vision for what school can and should be. And my lens, this whole project was thinking about how the role of the teacher is evolving. Levitt has a really impressive vision for what the role of a teacher is. The role of a teacher is not to be the deliverer of facts and knowledge. It is to be the guide of self-directed students and encouraging students and motivating students, forming relationships with students so that they can go deep on whatever it is they care about. And that’s a really exciting idea. In practice, I think it was.They’ve run into the challenge, which is not one of a surprise. But when you hire former teachers in a traditional classroom and don’t undergo the, like a really thorough process of helping them unlearn their teaching habits and unlearn their teaching kind of positionality, you run into issues and miscommunications. And so what does it mean to be self directed in a school? Is there accountability? Is there discipline? What kind of expectations do we have for students if they decide the work that they are kind of putting forth? And so that was a really interesting model to see because it was clear that they were in the process of growing. And so I have full faith that they will pull it off. It’s just there. I mean, as with any new school model, there’s a lot of, a lot of unlearning and growing to be done.Vision and leadership in schoolsMichael HornI’m curious and it’s interesting to hear you say that because I think I’ve been to a lot of quote unquote innovative schools over the years where the really good ones have a very, I’m going to use the word good leader, but I’m going to use the word good leader because they understand the why behind the model that they’ve created. And they really spend a lot of time making sure that the whole team, faculty, staff, et cetera, like everyone understands what the vision is, why they’re there, what that means for workflows. Like they don’t take any of that to chance. And when things don’t work in some of these models, it seems like there’s a broken link, maybe at multiple junctures of what I just laid out there. But like at least, at least one or two of them it seems to me, I’m curious because like this, this jumps to Alpha School, I think, which is they go so far as like they don’t want former teachers being quote unquote, their guides, fancy word for teacher with a different name but in a different role. But like that’s a very different sort of vision of that, I can’t remember which two of you wrote up Alpha School, but if someone jumps on, jumps in there, maybe, and sort of paints that contrast with what you just described with Levitt Lab.Jaysan ShahYeah, I can jump in as one of the writers, but Matt as well. I think something with the Alpha school that doesn’t always get talked enough about is how deliberate the other parts of the day are. I think a lot of people talk about the two hours a day and how students are learning academic content very quickly, performing really well on exams. But as an institution, I think they’ve really done a good job of defining what their principles and purpose are for the life skills that they want students to develop. One of the mantras that we would hear walking around the campus is that they’re building creators and not consumers. And I think that was really embodied by the specific skills that they had chosen. Things like entrepreneurship, things like public speaking and leadership. And I think it goes to show what they really hope teachers are doing in those environments.And a lot of that is modeling, and a lot of that is trying to figure out how students are progressing along those different life skills because they understand why each of the five different life schools that the school has chosen are their guiding principles. And I think something that goes with school choice as well is that families can also decide which life skills speak the most to them. And I know Alpha gets some controversy over the model, over the skills that they’ve chosen, but the fact that it’s so clear what skills they have chosen, I think is also a representation of strong leadership.Michael HornThat’s really interesting to me. It’s something that’s jumping out. Let’s not do every single model. I think we’re going to leave one or two on the cutting room floor, if you will, for a moment. But Ruben, maybe let me go to you on this question, which is like, when I’m hearing these NuVu to Alpha, to, you know, Levitt, like, these are very different visions. Red Bridge, right. Like Elizabeth City, Village School.These are, like, very different visions for what schooling looks like. One of the things that jumps out to me is like, and I’m curious if you’d agree, but you know, someone who’s attracted to NuVu, that’s not every kid. And that’s probably the point in, in some ways. And Jaysan, what you just said, you know, in terms of Alpha, like, if we’re creating entrepreneurs, that probably also doesn’t speak to every single person. And that’s probably also the point. Right? Just sort of curious your reflections on that, Ruben, you know, being an assistant principal at a charter school, right. Like, you’ve seen a lot of different schools and school models themselves trying to be innovative.Is that characterization right about, like, hey, it’s okay that these are not for everyone. And. And what, did anything surprise you around that?Ruben Villarreal-HalprinYeah, I think. I totally agree. I think in the schools that I worked at, we often. I think our. Our big fault was always concerned with. This is hard to put this in, in a way, but I think we were always concerned.We always raised the floor. We kids were not falling through the cracks. Kids were doing well. But at the same time as doing that, we often constricted the ceiling of where kids could go. And I think these schools really bust through that glass ceiling and say, like, if. If this is the right fit for you, if you’ve found the right place, then the sky’s the limit, because you’ll have the autonomy, the support, the resources that really feed into you as a learner that allows you to accomplish amazing things before you leave 8th grade in some of these cases. And so that, to me, was a super inspiring piece of all this in visiting these schools was for students that found the right school, for families that found the right school, iIt really created incredible opportunities and that they were so different and that it really was like there was an option for every family to do something really incredible with their learning.Michael HornJaysan, let me ask you this question, because that’s pretty powerful, what you just described, Ruben. And it seems like the challenge then, or the opportunity maybe, if we’re moving to this, you know, more of a system of, like, lifting the ceiling for every kid is to make sure that the floor also comes up still for every kid as well. And part of that is helping them make choices that are synergistic. Right. With what really makes them tick. Is that right? Is that your observation? Like, it becomes more of a choice and system question than the responsibility of each school to be the right fit for every kid. Or how should we think about that?Jaysan ShahYeah, I mean, start by saying this is definitely my opinion and be curious to see how.Michael HornYeah.Why doesn’t everyone jump in after you out in this? Okay, let. Let’s let everyone have a shot on this.Addressing school discontent and optionsJaysan ShahYeah, I think that a lot of what’s happened in school that has led to some of the discontent that a lot of families are feeling is this overemphasis on standardization of the model, of school, of what students have to learn in. In the classroom. And as a result, I think more options is like a natural reaction to that discontent. I do also think that some of these schools, as much as we may love them, might not actually be the fit for some families. I’m sure that there are families that have come to these schools that have had the most amazing outcomes and some who have had to continue to find a school that was the right fit for their kids. But I think that what’s important is that the process of finding a school and the process of choosing the school right for your child is one where there’s as little friction as possible. So I think from like, a systematic standpoint, like, that might in my mind be like, one of the important places to start to resolve the barriers that families are facing, because I think there’s a lot of knowledge in communities over, like, how learning can occur, what learning can look like, and if we can continue to incentivize that entrepreneurship of these different school models, I’m sure there’s going to be some that continue to rise to the surface as like, the most prime examples, even beyond just the seven we’ve seen.Michael HornAll right, everyone, get in there. Feature bug concerns, worries, excitement. Yeah, go ahead, Matthew.Matthew MillikinI’ve got a. Okay. So I think my perspective from this human development side is that the couple of character skills or human skills that a school builds should be the most important part of this whole continuum. And I want to be clear with like, what that means. I think it’s a deeper level of purpose of schooling than, say, the Alpha school’s life skills. I see like subjects and jobs, life skills or kind of that different level. And then you have this, what characteristics are we building?And, and that’s why I think Red Bridge as a school cuts through is because they have one characteristic which is being an autonomous learner. And like, and like, that is a human skill that they’re building. So I think that that is, that is like, for me, what should be the most important point to connect the students or, and the parents of a community to a school, because it then informs every other level. And so, yeah, I think, I think if you don’t build up from there and then you don’t align people at that, at that deepest level. Well, it’s not. That’s where you do get friction.Michael HornRuben and William, I want to hear you both get in this also. And I just want to add off of what Matthew just said, like, in some ways, I think, Matthew, you’re suggesting, like, that’s the new thing that’s in common. And this is something I’ve thought a lot about is like in many ways like prom or Friday Night Lights in America. Right. Different from Australia perhaps because football’s a little harder core where you are. Right. Like those have been what we’ve taken in common and you’re speaking a different language of commonality in some ways. So I’d love your guys’ reflections though.Focus on learner-centric schoolsRuben Villarreal-HalprinYeah, I think, yeah. What Matt said really resonates with me about, about focusing on, on human skills and, and focusing on the learner. I think like these schools and when I think about Village School and Red Bridge in particular, their focus on the learner in front of them, who that learner is and that learner understanding who they are as a person and as a growing learner being and someone who’s, who’s going to spend this time in school understanding like where have I been? What skills am I developing? And then where are my gaps? Where do I go from here? But they really do an incredible job both those schools of pairing that with a strong foundation of reading and math and those foundational skills that we associate with school traditionally. And so they’re able to do both of those things. They’re raising the floor and opening up that ceiling for students to explore in depth those interests. And so they have courses of their day that might look and feel a bit. Well, they look and feel like really solid ELA class. And then there’s a portion of their day designed and, and designated for students to explore their interests and to explore their learning in a deep way that’s, that’s self driven.And then there are those skills that are required to do those things to be a self driven learner are developed as a part of that. It’s not a separate skill. It’s not decoupled from their instructional classes. It’s a part of the whole coherent structure of the school that really thrusts kids upwards.Michael HornFair to say that like the knowledge building you just described in mathematics or ELA, it’s viewed as like foundational to that larger question. And then that intent or purpose of what we’re building, that autonomy and self understanding, that’s the consistent thing that appears in every single learning activity. Is that the right way to think about it?Ruben Villarreal-HalprinAbsolutely, yeah.Matthew MillikinCool.Michael HornAll right, William, your turn to worry or get excited.Choosing the right school fitWilliam WiltshireNo, I’ll do a little bit of both. I think I, I think about even some of my family members like say you’ve, your family’s been going to a school for generations and, but for this one kid, it’s not the right fit. And no matter how hard you try to put the square peg in the round hole, like these are formative years of a student’s life where if they’re not in the right fit, it’s doing more harm to the student’s development than if they made it out the other side and figure it out by senior year of high school. Like, that is what’s, what’s the point of that? And I just, on these school tours, I was really just so inspired by knowing that different is okay and different models are more and more becoming less stigmatized. And I just think, I think back to even when I was in school, a different model most likely would have been the right fit for me. And yet it’s a big jump for parents to make to leave what’s familiar for something that’s unfamiliar. So I think that’ll be a really interesting kind of trend to keep an eye on in the next couple of years, what parents make of leaving the comfortable traditional model. And then the thing I think I’m worried about is where higher education kind of fits into this equation.They kind of seem to. Higher ed kind of seems to be in between, causing friction from K through 12 to the job market, where if we’ve got these really inspiring, innovative K through 12 models, but they have to adapt their transcripts or adapt their curricula to appease a higher education institution, and then the student has to then apply to the job market. It’s, it’ll be. That’s one of my worries. I don’t want some, a place like the Village School where it’s all about knowing yourself, to have to change anything about their model to satisfy the needs of higher education. Because I know that when those students from the Village School do make it to the job market, that ability to know yourself is going to do them wonders. So higher education is the biggest question mark I have.Michael HornFriction. Yeah. And it’s interesting, right? Like if I’m a college, I sure would want somebody who actually knew themselves and could learn autonomously. Like that would be a way more valuable student than the traditional sort of play the game student, if you will, for lack of a better phrase. So. All right, last question for you all as we wrap up here. And, and you guys, it’s a sort of lightning round question, but you can take it where you want. Which is, you know, the thing that’s most surprising to you or the thing that you’re going to take from this as you’ve now graduated and go out into, back into the working world, back into the working world of education.Something you’re going to do with this and take with it in your own careers, and maybe we’ll go the same order through. So, Jaysan, then Matthew, Ruben, William, final word all right? Go for it, Jaysan.Jaysan ShahI think my biggest takeaway from this is that nobody has the answers, but I think the answers lie in trying and trying something different. And I think that the more that people really think deeply about what led to the success in their own life and really try to understand how, how things like research and technology can support that is when we can kind of break away from nostalgia that might be kind of halting other innovations.Reflecting on meaningful practicesMatthew MillikinIt’s a great question. So I think one big reflection is. And the other’s going to laugh because I pull out this quote all the time is one of my professors uses that what counts cannot always be counted, and what can be counted does not always count quite a lot to push us to ask people what matters. And I think a practice or a thing that I’m going to continually follow through from this project and just based on what we saw and what I can’t unsee is asking people what matters to them and then trying to use that to establish this common ground. Because I think in schools where I don’t think, and to my point earlier about the human skills, I don’t think we’re getting to the ground level, foundational beliefs enough and then building up from that. And so, yeah, I think a practice going forward is I’m going to ask what do you think the purpose of this is? What do you think the purpose of all of it is? And let’s figure out what’s common and build things from there.Ruben Villarreal-HalprinFor me, it’s part of the reason why I wanted to do this project with these guys in the first place was to get out there and see it. And I think that’s my biggest takeaway is that these schools, the leaders, the guides and teachers that were most inspiring were those who had gotten out into other schools who had both seen things happening and then came back and made it their own. And I think I am not going to be the same teacher, the same leader after going to see these schools and what they’ve accomplished and what they’re aiming to do. And I think it. You’d be hard pressed as a teacher, as a school leader to go back and not be changed by some of the inspiring things that are happening around the country.William WiltshireI think I would echo what Jaysan said about just trying will get us to a better understanding of what the purpose of school is. I think, shout out to our friend Aashna who is starting her own school. But the process of building a school right now is very feasible. If you work out the financials, obviously that’s a huge hill to climb. But like people can just build schools now, say this is the thing I care about most, this is what I want my students to be and who I want them to become, or just a general kind of set of principles and just do it. And I think that the more leaders that we see kind of getting to that point, like we just had a cohort of 750 students at Harvard graduate and the vast, vast majority of them are going back into existing institutions. But imagine if a fraction of that class size went off and built what an exciting landscape we’re walking into. So I’m really motivated and hopeful that more children will have more schools that work for them.Michael HornAmazing guys. And just for those listening, it’s Aashna Mago who’s starting Purpose Schools right in the Bay Area. But just, you know, folks that want to follow the work, look at the report you produced. They can follow Tomorrow Schools on LinkedIn. Is that the best, is that the best way? I’m getting head nods, but. And a thumbs up from Matthew. So cool. All right, so check that resource out.We’ll link to it. All four of you, congratulations on graduating. Congrats on asking the hard questions. Right. It’s a lot easier just to stay on the path, I think, of what’s been. But congrats on sort of asking where the exceptions, those anomalies are, where that can give us a window into how we might rethink what’s been and create a lot more opportunities. And Ruben, I’m going to keep that quote of we’re blowing off the ceiling so that people can just reach their potential. That’s a cool way of thinking about what we’re trying to build here, I think.So huge thank you to all of you and for all of you tuning in. We’ll be back next time on the Future of Education as always. And let’s keep building, folks. Thanks so much.The Future of Education is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit michaelbhorn.substack.com/subscribe

June 3, 202623 min

Inside Primer's Growing Network

Ryan Delk, the founder of Primer, an innovative K–8 private school network focused on accessibility, mastery, and student agency, sat down with me at a Primer school in Florida to help me learn about Primer’s schooling model. Ryan explained how Primer partners with passionate educators to launch flexible, community-focused campuses that prioritize affordability and transparency for families. Our discussion showcased how Primer leverages technology to personalize academics through regular assessment, supports teachers by reducing administrative burdens, and cultivates real-world skills and student empowerment through project-based “pursuits.” And we have clips throughout of teachers and students interacting in the school, as Ryan gave me a tour of the school. I can’t wait to hear all of your thoughts in the comments.Michael HornWelcome to the Future of Education. As I’ve discussed, for the last decade-plus, we’ve seen a wave of microschools and, more accurately in my view, low-cost private schools, emerge across the country. Many are local schools with one or two sites. But a few have scaling ambitions through different mechanisms—names like Acton Academy, Prenda, OpenEd, Wildflower, KaiPod arguably, Flourish, and a few others. And then there’s another school network with such ambitions called Primer. I had long heard about the Primer model from many folks and knew several of the team members. But I had never had the opportunity to visit a Primer School. Knowing I would have the opportunity to interview Gov. Jeb Bush and Primer’s founder, Ryan Delk, in Florida at a Primer School, I was also excited to visit and learn more about the model. What follows is some of the conversation Ryan and I had and a look into the school itself. For those listening, you’ll miss a lot of the video of the actual schools but you should be able to get the basic flavor. For those watching, I hope you enjoy and learn from the accompanying video of students and teachers.Creating a high-agency learning environmentMichael HornRyan, I’ve been wanting to see a Primer school for I don’t know how many years now. We’re here, we’re here at Coconut Grove. Tell us about the Primer model. That’s the first thing I always hear when I hear about Primer schools is you have to understand the Primer school model. What is it?Ryan DelkSo it’s, I’ll talk about it from the family, teacher and student perspective. So from an educator perspective, Primer exists to empower these great educators who have dreamed of starting a school or want to start a school and want to serve their communities. But that’s a quite arduous process if you want to get a school ground. And so we partner with these great educators, we help them open these schools across Florida, now Alabama, soon Texas. And these are sometimes former administrators, they’re sometimes longtime teachers, sometimes Teach for America alums. But they’re people that see that the traditional system is not meeting kids needs, not meeting the needs of their community. But they really care about figuring that out. And so they, they, they partner with us to open, to open these schools.From a family perspective. Most of our families are in some sort of school situation that they know is not meeting their needs. And they’re typically not the families that can afford to move to a private school. These are really mostly working class, middle class, sometimes low income families that really care about their kids’ education. They’re deeply passionate about this. They believe in education as a driver of upward mobility and the importance of it. But they know that the current setup is not meeting their kids’ needs. And so they seek out Primer.They’re able to attend Primer often for free or for a very low tuition cost per month. And then from a student perspective we really believe in this idea of taking kids seriously. That’s like our sort of North Star from a student experience. And so we’ll talk more about that and I think we’re going to go, go see some kids in action. But this idea of when you create a high agency environment for a student and specifically around academics, you give them transparency into exactly where they’re at. Are they above grade level, behind grade level? And so parents, teachers, students, everyone can see, okay, I’m a grade level ahead in math, I may be a grade level behind in reading. Here’s the game plan. You give them agency over, you sort of give them the opportunity to get, to either get farther ahead or to get onto grade level.And so all the software that we’ve built that powers the school day, is really sort of built with that in mind. And so you have this high agency environment for kids. You have teachers who are really excited about serving their community, and then parents that are motivated to find a better option for their kids.Michael HornMaybe let’s back up before we actually get to see what that all looks like and just how many schools are in the network? Like, you’re one of a handful of networks that I think of going to scale right now with your model. How many are there? How many students in a school? Like, give us some of those fundamentals, if you will.Ryan DelkYes. We have 14 campuses across Florida, Alabama and Arizona. We’ll be launching a handful in San Antonio this fall as well, and a few more across Florida. And the average campus is anywhere between 50 and 120 students, depending on the real estate. So it depends on the campus setup and the number of teachers, et cetera. We will open Primers, our model is intentionally flexible from a real estate perspective. And sort of the controlling variable for us is access and cost.And so we have this core value of access as the constraint. And so we start from that place and then we figure out how to deliver a really high quality education in a way that’s accessible for every family. And so we open Primers in spaces like this. We’ll sometimes partner with churches, community centers, charter schools, some property developers, residential developers that want to bring a Primer to a residential community. We’ll do a lot of different things to get Primers off the ground and do it in a way that’s as affordable to every family as possible.Making Primer accessible for familiesMichael HornWhen you say affordable, like, what are we talking about tuition levels and how are, you know, families here? How are they paying?Ryan DelkI think we, I mean, you would maybe know this. It’s hard to know for sure. I think we might be the only private school network in the US that lowered tuition for the majority of our families last year. So the majority of families are paying less for Primer in School Year 25 than they were in School 24. Okay. And my hope is we can keep doing that for a very long time. We’ve never turned away a child for their family’s ability to pay.So if a family comes to us and says, hey, I really want to attend Primer, but 50 bucks a month is too much, like, we will always work with them. We have the Primer foundation that unlocks scholarships for those kids when they need it. And so, so we are, we are really serious about this idea of making this accessible to every family. And then for the families that do pay out of pocket, in addition to their state ESA, they typically pay between $50 and $200 a month. Most families, it’s a sliding scale based on income. And then in some states like Texas, it’s 100% free. So it depends a little bit state by state. But my vision very explicitly is to get Primer to be 100% free or ultra low cost.Some states require some small amount out of pocket, but ultra low cost for every family that attends. And that is, that is our North Star.Michael HornIt’s interesting. Purdue University in the higher ed space got however many plaudits for holding tuition level. You’re lowering it. That’s truly unique, I think. Talk to us about, you know, sort of the day in the life of a student. Right. Are they coming five days a week? What sort of the arc of their day looks like?Ryan DelkYeah, something we believe that’s really important for these kinds of quote unquote alternative education models. We really want Primer to feel legible to parents, sort of legible to the existing system. So it feels like a school. So we operate from 8 to 3 or 8 to 3:30 every day. Students come five days a week. And so when you’re here, it feels fresh and it feels new and exciting and different, but it still feels like a school. And that’s really important to us. And so for parents that are working that, that, you know, are thinking in terms of a traditional school schedule, Primer fits, you know, exactly what they would expect.The basic day breakdown, and we’ll see some is in the morning, kids are working on core academics. So all core academics at Primer are individualized for the student. And so they join Primer, they take a nationally normed reference test, the NWEA map test. We get a snapshot of where that student is academically. Every student is. There’s no student that is perfectly at the exact same grade level in every single subject. And so we get a snapshot of this student is maybe half a grade level ahead in math, half a grade level behind in writing, on grade level in reading. And then the system builds an academic model for them.And that academic model includes direct instruction from the teacher. So there’s, you know, moments during the day where either the teacher has a small group of students or she’s doing group instruction. There’s also moments during the day where the students might be learning from a virtual instructor. So let’s say they need remedial support in reading. They might be in a remedial math or reading class with another small group of students across the Primer network, virtually with an expert tutor that’s helping them accelerate back on grade level. There’s also points in the day where the student might be working on a learning app or software tutor. Some of the students that are really far ahead, that have mastered concepts and can move quickly.Some students that might need, you know, very specific targeted instruction to a specific concept. And then the fourth sort of modality is students working together. So it might be students reading a book together, discussing it. We really want students to learn this idea of the sort of, we can call it learn how to learn, but this idea of them being able to take agency and ownership over their education even at a very young age and not need a teacher hovering over them to make sure that they’re doing their work, but be able to sit in a group of students and have a robust discussion and understand that they have the freedom to go do that, but also the expectation that they stay on task and, you know, have a fruitful discussion.Michael HornAnd then. So that’s the morning block, basically, these fundamentals of all the subjects, I guess, reading, writing, math, science, et cetera.Ryan DelkSo, yeah, so science, social studies, history, those happen in the afternoon through pursuits. And so pursuits are sort of are you think of it as i t sort of accelerates over or becomes more robust as kids get older. But we want to figure out what makes every student tick, what are they excited about, what are they intrinsically motivated, and then develop a set of projects that they can work on that align with those interests. And so when kids are younger, you know, these are group projects like, let’s build a community garden. Let’s, you know, learn about local politics and, you know, how a new law is going to, you know, become law in Miami Dade County.Student-led projects and pursuitsRyan DelkThese are projects that the primary leader is usually kind of facilitating as a group, but as kids get older, it turns into, let’s start a company, let’s go work on a microbiology research project. Let’s launch a podcast, you know, let’s publish a book on Amazon. And then we have a team that works with both the students, students and the primary leader to set academic milestones for against state standards, against different gaps that the student might have that weave into that project. And so we really want the pursuits time in the afternoon, from a parent perspective, to almost feel like something that you would expect to be paying for as, like, enrichment or after school. But it happens during the school day. And then from a student perspective, this is when they learn that agency and that sort of, you know, by the time they’re in sixth, seventh, eighth grade, it’s, hey, this is, you have two hours today.How are you going to use that time? Are you going to hit your goals? These are really important skills that they learn. And they’re also getting, you know, these academic milestones, plus the ability to work on these projects they’re excited about.Michael HornAnd this is a K through 8 model. Right. So it’s those early years and sort of this arc of having more and more agency and into these maybe bigger projects as they get older. And then you mentioned your tech system. So you take the NWEA map in the beginning, it sort of maps out this, what your academic plan is going to look like, how are you measuring mastery and then sort of pulling that back into the system to right size that educational experience. Because I’m assuming not all the kids are moving at the same pace and so forth.Ryan DelkYeah. So this is probably the thing I’m most excited about that we’re building. We actually just shipped a new version of Academic Progress last week. But the basic idea is we want every teacher, every student and every parent to be operating with the same. There should be no information asymmetry. They should have the same fidelity on how a student is doing. And so we show the parent in our mobile app, on their desktop view every concept, every academic milestone, every concept, every state standard, depending on where they are for that child’s education, exactly where they are, whether it’s on grade level, ahead of grade level, at grade level, and exactly how they’re progressing. And we actually project into the future and say, okay, your child is, let’s say it’s a fourth grader that’s a half grade level ahead in math, by the end of this school year.Here’s exactly where we expect them to be based on their current learning velocity. Or let’s say that it’s a child that’s a grade level behind in reading, based on their current learning velocity. Here’s where we think they’ll be by the end of the school year. And if that says, hey, they’re going to be caught up, that’s really exciting. If it doesn’t, then we’re going to work with that child to set more aggressive goals and the Primer leader is going to be involved in that. They’re going to do that every session, every five weeks and the parent’s going to see that, the teacher’s going to see that, the child’s going to see that, and then it sort of incentivizes them to want to work harder to get on grade level. And so the transparency and fidelity is sort of key to the whole way we think about mastery. And then the actual data itself is coming in from a variety of exit tickets.Virtual instruction for students that might be behind, direct instruction from the PL and their notes, learning apps, like they could go on Khan Academy and take a quiz or Newsela or Frax or different applications we use. And so our system ingests all of that.Michael HornSo basically, lots of measures of assessment, lots of measures of mastery, and you can almost triangulate. Do we really figure out has this kid really mastered?Ryan DelkExactly. And the thing, you know, the number one thing that alternative schools or whatever you want to call them like to do is come up with these kind of like internal metrics for academic outcomes that are, you know, sort of a black box and sort of shun, you know, third party nationally norm testing. And what we do is we take the NWEA map three times a year. And what that does, and, you know, parents get that data, teachers get the data, students get the data. And what that does is it keeps us honest. And so we have this.Michael HornYou’re looking at your internal metrics and does it line up?Ryan DelkExactly. So we have daily information on every single student, that every individual Primer leader has a dashboard view of their classroom that sort of aggregates all the student data. Every campus leader has a view of all their classrooms at their campus. And then our academic team has the view of the whole network and they can drill into any campus, individual classroom and an individual student. And then we look at the map data and make sure that it correlates with what we expect. And so we can actually project what we think the MAP score is going to be for each student based on, you know, their learning velocity. And then of course, when those things are, you know, not tied, we adjudicate like, okay, was the kid sick when they took a map test? Did they not sleep well the night before? Like, we’re, we’re sympathetic to those things, but it creates this, I think, very robust picture of how kids are doing academically. And this is, I just think it’s really, really important as part of this kind of low cost, high quality school movement, to be honest about, like, we have to deliver academic outcomes for kids and not shy away from that.Michael HornAnd not shy away from it. Everyone is buzzing about AI as, you know, what’s the role of artificial intelligence in what you just described or what you’re developing.Reducing teacher administrative tasksRyan DelkI’m more excited in the short term and this is a bit of a hot take of how AI impacts the kind of administration. So maybe just zooming out like what I aspire Primer to be for an educator is that we take on all of the sort of crufty bureaucratic administrative junk that you have to do. You know, we’ll talk to educators who say like look, I spend like two hours on the weekends filling up paperwork for different students, like all this crazy busy work. And so I don’t, I don’t know that any Primer leader has ever filled out a piece of paperwork ever. Like I think it’s just all abstracted away for them. And so that is extremely important to us. And so a lot of the ways that we’re using these new models is in empowering the teacher. Like if you think about a teacher’s day, my mental model for this is that you want to maximize the number of minutes where that teacher is doing what only they can do, which is engaging with a student one on one or in a small group or the whole class, investing in a kid, building a relationship, building trust, helping them through some really important learning unlock and when they’re tied up thinking about schedules and rosters and who’s out sick today and all those things, all that takes away both from like a cognitive load perspective but just literally from like a minutes in the day perspective.And so a lot of what we’re doing right now is on the teacher and the parents side creating more robust visibility. But we will test and we will deploy all the latest technology for students. And so we don’t shy away from that. And so if the team will find some really exciting new math AI tutor and we’ll go, if some students want to try it, they’ll try it. We’ll look at the data, we’ll look at the learning velocity. We actually just concluded one which I won’t name here, but didn’t beat the current system. And so we said hey, we’re not going to deploy this. And so it’s not that we’re sort of shying away from the student side, but it’s just that I think my current view is that the underlying models have gotten to the point where they can deliver incredible academic outcomes, but the sort of packaging of it in a way that is accessible to students, that’s multimodal, that meets students exactly where they are and then importantly that creates on the back end has the data architecture to be able to map whatever’s happening in the AI tutor to state standards to learning outcomes.That is still quite messy, but I think we’re like three to six months away from that. And sort of the whole point of the software, or a significant point of software we built is to ensure that we can plug in those best in class tools and deliver for kids when they’re ready.Michael HornWell, something that seems distinct about your model compared to a lot of the other models I see and hear about right now is that rather than saying we’re going to sort of reduce the number of inputs into a kid’s education, you’re basically saying flowering. If a teacher one on one or in small group with you is the best modality, great, we’ll take that and ingest the data and figure out did you master it, if it’s this software program, if it’s a tutor, whatever it is, and basically the system is sort of taking all these inputs and refereeing or sort of coming up with a picture of mastery. Talk about that philosophy. Because that does seem distinct, I think.Empowering teachers with technologyRyan DelkYeah, there’s two things that I would say. One is we are big believers in the educator and the teacher as a sort of sacred part of a child’s school experience. I think that’s true for any kid. I think it is especially true for children increasingly that come from one parent households or situations where their home life might not feel as stable. Teachers provide a really important role for those kids, far beyond just the education. And so this idea that like AI is going to replace every teacher, you know, we sort of reject that future. And I care much more about how do we empower teachers to do exceptional work to build these relationships with kids to be, you know, how do you take a, you know, 75th or 80th percentile teacher objectively? And how do you, how do you make them a 99th percentile teacher? How do you give them superpowers? By taking on all this admin work by, you know, we’re starting to do this, this thing called alerts where a teacher can get a ping in real time when a student is struggling with a specific concept. And so imagine a 99th percentile teacher is sort of constantly keeping in their head where each student is, what concepts they’re struggling with and knows when to sit down with them one on one and grab the scratch paper and intervene.Well, what if the software did that for you and said, hey, this student right now in real time, 10 seconds ago was struggling with 3 digit subtraction. I think it’s a really high leverage moment for you to grab some scratch paper and dig into this. Yeah, that’s the kind of thing that we get really excited about. So we’re, that’s sort of our vision for the future. And then I think from a, from a sort of modality perspective, we care a lot about ensuring that what we put in front of kids and the way the school day is structured meets our internal bar for delivering academic outcomes. And so we’re very thoughtful about screen time, we’re very thoughtful about the technology the kids are exposed to. We’re very thoughtful about what we ask of teachers. And so it is, we’re sort of, we’ve built the system to be highly flexible around the best in class tools, but we still have an extremely high bar for what makes it in and what students are exposed to. And that will never change.Michael HornSo we’ve talked about how you measure the fundamentals and mastery around that. You’ve talked a lot about the importance of agency and these other habits or skills rightThat is going to serve students not just in school but throughout their lives as they try to live choice filled lives. Yeah. How are you measuring and looking at that? Right. Because that seems like an important piece of what you’re doing.Ryan DelkYeah, we think of those as like the inputs to, you know, there’s academic outcomes and then there’s the inputs to academic outcomes. And so we call them habits of work. And so every time a kid engages, a student engages with a pursuit and other parts of Primer, they know that the habits of work are really important input into the score that they get or the grade that they get. And so, you know, these are things like, you know, is the child showing up engaged? You know, is the student working hard? Are they, are they hitting their goals? Do they have legible goals? And I think that piece of it, I think is an underrated part. So people are focused on the outcomes. What’s the MAP score, what’s the grade levels, gpa. But we care a lot about these inputs, one because I think they are inputs to academic outcomes and they’re important.But to your point, if you’re launching a Shopify store as part of your pursuit, learning how to show up even if you didn’t sleep well the night before and be focused and work hard for 45 minutes or an hour on that is a really important life skill. And if you learn that in sixth grade, that’s going to pay dividends for you well into adulthood. And so we think about them both because they’re important for academic outcomes, but also because they’re just important for life.Michael HornAnd it’s the context in the academic outcomes. What’s the connection between, I’m learning the fundamentals of English, math and so forth, and then I get these projects in social studies, science in the afternoon. Is there a connection? Do the students say, like, hey, I’m learning reading so that I can do this thing? Like, do they understand that connection?Connecting learning to real-world applicationsRyan DelkYeah, we had a student. So yes, the high level sort of answer is that we want students to feel a direct connection between what they’re learning academically, unlocking these cool projects that they’re excited about. And the, the point of that is, you know, eventually it’s grows to, okay, I’m gonna go study this thing for four years in college and then go become this, you know, or I’m gonna go to trade school, learn this set of skills and then go, you know, have this profession. And so this, this starting to sort of develop the pattern matching of hey, I can learn this thing in school and then it unlocks this project for me is really important. But what we, what we try to do is we try to both, both have that happen kind of fluidly and natively within the projects, but then also explicitly create that. And so I think last year we had a student that was really interested in statistics or, or math, and they’re really excited about the NFL draft and like how teams were going to, you know, were going to be able to decide who they were going to draft and relative to their current roster and salary caps and all these things. And so I was able to connect her with an NFL team. And we, you know, we were on FaceTime, talking to them about who they were going to draft and why they were going to draft them.And that was like a very, you could tell, the kind of like, eureka moment for her of like, okay, I learned this math, and then I was able to use that math to create this sort of view of what the optimal strategy would be for a draft. And then I actually got to talk to an NFL team about it and have a conversation. And that’s just like a very, very small anecdote. But those are the kind of connections that we want to make for kids. And I think that if we do that, especially fifth, sixth, seventh grade, that’ll pay tremendous dividends.Michael HornThat’s real empowerment.Empowerment indeed. I hope you enjoyed this special edition of the Future of Education as much as I did. Being able to be in a Primer school with the students and teachers live was just a huge treat. So a huge thank you again to Ryan for joining me, and a huge thank you to the whole team at Primer and all the supports behind them that helped make this visit possible. There were a lot of logistics to make all these things come together and they just were absolutely top flight professionals in making it happen. And a huge thank you as always to all of you for joining this special edition. I look forward to hearing about all your reactions and thoughts and comments to the episode. And as always, we’ll see you next time on the Future of Education.The Future of Education is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit michaelbhorn.substack.com/subscribe

May 26, 202621 min

An Explosion in Educational Choice: Reflecting on a Quarter-Century of Change in Florida

I hosted a conversation with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Ryan Delk, the founder of the Primer micrschools network, about the evolution of educational choice in Florida and its broader implications for the nation. Our discussion explored the state's journey from the early implementation of school choice policies to the current landscape where over half of Florida's families have the ability to select their children's schools and other educational services. The episode delved into key issues like funding, regulation, accountability, and federalism.Michael HornGovernor, Ryan, welcome to the Future of Education. Thanks for being here.Governor BushGood to be at a Primer school.Michael HornYes, it is indeed. And the history, Governor, of publicly funded widespread universal school choice, educational choice in Florida really gets its start from your time as Governor. You have laws in 1999, 2001, I’d say 2003, with funding following the student to Florida Virtual. You have all these milestones. As you look back now, 2026 at the state of educational choice here, how would you describe where we are in Florida? Where in the movement, if you will, are we right now?Governor BushWe’re not completely there, but we certainly got to scale for sure. When we started, I think we had 80 kids in that, parents went to a private school with public money. And that’s expanded over time. One voucher program, another corporate tax scholar program. Today, over 50% of parents in Florida choose where their kids go to school. It could be we have universal public school choice, we have universal education savings accounts. And so we’re, we’re building what I think is the right way to educate our children by empowering parents. It’s really exciting.Michael HornAnd as you noted, we’re sitting in a Primer school, literally one of hundreds of microschools, low cost private schools throughout the state right now. I’m curious, did you envision this sort of education entrepreneurship that we’ve seen when you were Governor?Governor BushI didn’t envision anything. I hoped that it would happen. My personal belief is that parents deserve to have this power to choose where their kids go to school and if they do that, that there will be schools like Primer, more tools for homeschool kids. Charter schools will emerge. The religious schools that were in decline in terms of providing education to their students would see growth, all of that. I was hopeful it would happen and I’m proud that Florida has been a leader. But it’s also exciting to see it happen across the country.Michael HornRyan, you’ve been a direct beneficiary of really the foresight of these policies that I think it’s fair to say. And you also, as I understand it, have quite an intergenerational connection as well when it comes to microschools, educational choice in Florida. What’s your family connection to the story that’s unfolded here that started under Governor Bush?Ryan DelkYeah, it’s interesting. There’s a very personal connection, but then there’s also this sort of interesting macro connection. And the personal connection is my mom was a public school teacher, so she was very pro public schools. We were zoned for. She took me to kindergarten orientation at the school that we were zoned for. And she quickly realized that it was a failing school. It wasn’t going to meet, you know, her standards for us. We were living with, in my grandparents house at the time in a low income area outside Orlando.We didn’t have, you know, any choice to move. We couldn’t afford private school. And so she just took matters into her own hands. And so she ended up starting one of the first kinds of homeschool microschools in Florida. She got me and my siblings and then about a dozen other kids together and she just willed this thing into existence. And what’s interesting, and this is where it kind of connects to the macro. So I, this incredible education that frankly was like, you know, significantly higher quality than, you know, what I would have, you know, deserved, you know, relative to our socioeconomic status or what you would have expected. And what’s interesting is that she started that right before Governor Bush’s first term.Impact of Governor Bush’s PoliciesRyan DelkAnd so, we sort of experienced, you know, what I think of as the before times and it was very contrarian. We got a lot of questions. I think she was frankly judged by a lot of people, you know, for, for doing what she did. And then when Governor Bush took office, he, you know, sort of decided to, to go to the mat for, you know, a lot of these issues and make it a key priority. And so we, we actually sort of experienced the shift where it was, it was you know, not only just normalized but sort of like celebrated and empowered. And so I now feel this frankly like a real weight and responsibility as sort of the first generation to benefit from these policies. And then now, three decades later, you know, getting to spend my life building schools like this that open up those same opportunities to students with the same, you know, structure and work that, that not only, you know, Governor’s administration, but many, many folks since then have carried the torch to unlock these opportunities for kids. And so the weight of that is not lost on me.And I think it’s quite powerful that we’re sort of seeing the second generation now. The folks that had the, that got these opportunities from, from sort of generation one of these programs now being able to reinvest in the next generation is, is quite exciting.Michael HornWell, and it’s fascinating, right, that narrative of ostracism almost to norm, to expectation, right, for families. And as I understand it, you all at Primer are thinking a lot about the policy and regulatory landscape and some of the critical questions when it comes to things like microschools and the like, zoning, fire safety codes, things of that nature. I know there have been some big developments over the past couple years in Florida around some of those zoning questions. Can you just update us both on what’s happened, but also why it matters so much?Ryan DelkYeah, so we are, we’re one of. There’s a lot of people doing great work on this Excel in Ed. There’s a ton of great, great orgs. And so we are one of many people that are working on this issue. There is one, you know, very narrow and perhaps, I think, very underrated, but maybe, you know, kind of unexciting part of the regulatory landscape that I happen to care a lot about, and that is the regulations around new school supply. So there’s an enormous amount of energy that’s gone into what I would articulate as the demand side, unlocking funding for parents, making sure that the funding follows the student. And that’s, you know, as we discussed, many decades in the making. But now that that exists, the reality is that a lot of the regulations around starting new schools, and I learned this firsthand, like the amount of nights and weekends that I spent early on at Primer staring at zoning maps of cities and counties is far more than I ever anticipated.And the reason for that is that there’s all these regulations that sort of, you know, take as a sort of starting assumption that every school is still a, you know, 60,000 square foot, $30 million build to serve 2,000 students. And so in that framework where every single school looks like that, of course there’s traffic studies and school bus parking and very intense building regulations, that all makes sense in that context. But now in this world where you have a great educator who wants to open up a school in a church or a community center or, you know, a facility like this, those regulations are quite arduous. And they’re arduous, you know, we’re a fairly sophisticated operation. They’re arduous at times for us, but, but in many ways they’re impossible for like a sort of seasoned educator that wants to go serve their community. And so what I care is the sort of common sense, right sizing of these regulations specifically for small schools.So for the large schools, a lot of what’s in place is, I think, serving that need really well. It makes a lot of sense. But for small schools, we want to make it much easier for those schools to open up in existing facilities to serve their community. And the reason that I care a lot about this is that I’ve seen firsthand stories of dozens, maybe hundreds of educators who want to start not just primaries, but all sorts of types of schools who reach out to us and say, hey, I got stuck. I have, you know, I’m trying to get this building permit, I’m trying to get this code, I can’t figure out zoning, or I’ve got to do a nine month variance process. All these things that are sort of just, just incredibly arduous for the task at hand. And so we spend a lot of time and a lot of energy from a legislative perspective making sure that we can knock down those barriers.Michael HornGovernor, I want to broaden the view now beyond Florida and think about these sorts of questions, supply questions, others, in the context of this sort of nationwide movement right now we’re seeing toward educational choice. And I’m curious both of your takes on a couple of items that we can run down. First, it strikes me just thinking about what you said on the zoning side of it. As an onlooker, there’s a pretty robust demand right now for different options that meet different kids needs. But the supply side that you just described, so you’re taking some significant steps there, but getting a sustainable supply side that’s affordable, low cost, private schools like Primer. What’s holding up the supply side? What else should we be thinking about in terms of that? Or maybe my perspective is wrong on this, but I would love to think about how do we really encourage this robust supply side.Governor BushTen years ago the big fight was how do we get charter schools to be able to access, as public schools to access public capital, what we call in Florida pico dollars. And that was a struggle because look, the public schools feel threatened by all these choices. I mean my, my hope and dream is that there’ll be a superintendent in Miami Dade county or some other place that says every child that goes to school in my county is my responsibility and I’m going to create a menu of options for parents and I’m going to try to do everything I can to make sure that every child succeeds.Michael HornSo really helping them navigate to the right option.Funding challenges for private schoolsGovernor BushYeah, but if you had that attitude, you wouldn’t be, you know, making it impossible for a private school to get a permit or you wouldn’t have, you wouldn’t restrict private capital to come in. I mean, there’s really one institutional source of money for private school capitalists, the Drexel Fund, which is for Catholic schools. The charters have, you know, three or four fundraising operations for their capital growth needs. So that’s part of it is you need to have more private philanthropy come in. But ultimately this should be a state responsibility as well. I mean, do we, do we do this in Medicaid? Do we have government run doctors and government run nurses and government run clinics? Some, but it’s not the dominant way that someone that is qualified for Medicaid gets access to healthcare. We should have the same mindset for education. And I think you would have an acceleration of really interesting options both in terms of hybrid learning, you know, where a parent could choose to take care of many much of their healthcare, their education needs, or they could go to Primer and take some of the money maybe and go to do something that accelerates the learning.This is where we’re moving and there’s still, it’s work in progress. But I’m really excited that Ryan and others like him, education entrepreneurs, are advancing this at a pace that’s pretty exciting.Michael HornRyan, what’s your take on this in terms of the sustainable supply? What’s it going to take to get supply to meet the demand that we’re seeing?Ryan DelkI think it’s all about cost. And we have this core value that acts as the constraint. And so we start from the place of Primer needs to be accessible to every family, regardless of income. We’ve never turned away a student. And so some of the regulatory work that we’ve discussed that to me is all connected to this idea of how do you get these schools open as efficiently as possible and then how do you get the cost to educate down where parents can attend these schools for ideally nothing. Ideally it’s completely free. They just use their ESA and they can just attend the school. But if there is some out of pocket, it’s 50 bucks a month or 75 bucks a month.And to me that is the key thing to unlock because then these scholarships are accessible or they’re unlocking opportunities for the families that need it most. The families that can afford a $15, $20,000 a year school, they don’t necessarily need these options as desperately as the families that are trapped in schools that are not serving their needs. And so that’s what we’re obsessed with. And I think there’s a kind of growing coalition that’s really focused on this low cost, high quality private school.Michael HornSecond thing I’m curious about, and we’ll go to my inner wonk here, your inner wonk here, which is there’s been a big proliferation of education savings accounts across the country right now. But there are subtleties in the policies in different states and I’ll just name a few of them because I’m curious what you all think about the impact of these differences. I’m thinking of the increasing number of states with accreditation requirements for example. Florida, you know, does not. You have some states that require external assessments of students in these low cost private schools. Some don’t. Some states are tuition first ESAs and some are not. Some allow you to roll over dollars even for post secondary education.So it really creates a savings and value ethos as opposed to others that are not. We in the media often call these all ESA states. Are we sort of masking over these subtleties? Do they matter, the variants? Are we lumping them sort of at expense of understanding what we’re really trying to create here? What’s your perspective on these differences?Importance of State FlexibilityGovernor BushMy perspective is that’s all good. You know, if we had one size fits all, it’d probably be driven out of Washington and that would be. It wouldn’t happen. It would be an unmitigated disaster. So having states have the ability to implement as best they can a version of ESA and then modify it as they go along because someone from another state’s done something interesting like the education savings account where you can reinvest it if you didn’t spend the whole amount. I mean that’s an interesting idea that may catch on for all the states that don’t have it now. To me I think the baseline should be there’s a financial responsibility that if you’re taking taxpayers money directly or indirectly, you should be a good steward of that money. And there’s health and safety issues that are really important, particularly for young kids. Beyond that, let’s let a thousand flowers bloom and come up with the best approach.The important thing is that we get to scale so that parents demand that no one tries to take it away. That’s the first mission and that’s happening. You know, if 50% of all kids in Florida parents choose, it’s going to be hard to imagine if someone wants to come and try to re regulate this and have it just be traditional schools being the only option. I don’t think that’s going to happen. Texas, you know, having a hundred thousand kids to start with and over time that growing is going to create another kind of scalable moment for that state. And so if you try to impose a bunch of rules on top of that, it’s not going to grow at the speed that I think will make it more effective.Michael HornRyan, what’s your take on the variance?Ryan DelkI mean I’m a personal big fan of federalism so I just have a personal bias towards that. But I think what I’m encouraged by is the movement is coalescing around the right things. And so when you look at the programs that have launched recently, they have measures to make sure that the providers are delivering for students, they’re fiscally responsible, the dollars are flowing to low income, working class, middle class families that need them. And so I’m really encouraged by the way, I think the last four programs that have launched at scale have all had versions of that in place. And I think if that’s taking the best practices from other states, implementing them into new programs and if that continues then I’m quite optimistic.Improving financial accountability systemsGovernor BushYou know, one of the things that could be done in a federal system and it’s happening right now and ExcelInEd is working on this is to create a coding project because right now the technology isn’t the same as it would be for a health savings account for example, or think about your MasterCard or Visa. All this stuff is done, you know, we have no clue how it, at least I don’t have any clue how it works, but it works really well. Whereas if you think about all the coding that could happen to make sure that there’s financial accountability and also that parents aren’t out of pocket making these commitments that they don’t have the resources to do because of some bureaucratic snafu at the state level. So there are things that could be done, but those are more like private sector enhancements that will make this more effective.Michael HornAnd I guess it also helps the supply side so that those dollars actually reach the operators. Right. Ryan, you’re not sitting there waiting for it. Let me ask, Governor Bush, if we zoom out, what do you see as the big flashpoints to come in educational choice? It could be Florida, but also nationwide.Governor BushWell, you can see it happen if there is, I’ll use Florida as an example. We have several hundred thousand, we have half of all the ESA kids are in our state. So you could have 1/10 of 1% of those transactions take place in a way that is inappropriate as they’re trying to sort out. You know, you’re dealing with scale, it’s hard to do all that. And so then you know, Senator Schmidlap will want to say well we need to like regulate this and regulate that. That’s the biggest danger is Washington getting involved or states trying to re regulate to deal with the tiny fraction of problems that impacts 99.9% of families. So regulate in terms of testing. We should trust parents to make these decisions and then give them the tools to be informed consumers and give them an array of choices.And we need to protect that. That to me, you can see this happening at the state level. New governor comes in, they feel compelled to do something. And I’m very fearful of Washington getting involved. I’m excited about the tax credit program, but I haven’t seen the rules. And, you know, I’m paranoid about this stuff because I’ve seen there’s too many examples of Washington with good intentions getting things wrong.Michael HornRyan, I’d love to hear your reflections on the big flashpoints of the moment and both to comment around what the Governor just named, because you’re operating not just in Florida. So what are you seeing as those big questions or big issues that the field’s going to really have to think about or protect against in the years to come?Focus on quality in educationRyan DelkI mean, I think a lot of people care a lot about education in this country, and that’s a good thing overall. And so there’s, you know, people with strong perspectives on both sides. A lot is changing. The world is changing really quickly. And my view on this is there will continue to be flashpoints, there’s going to continue to be contentious policy debates and accreditation and testing and all these things. But I really believe, I have deep conviction that if we stay focused on delivering high quality academic outcomes in a way that’s accessible for every family, that that is the winning strategy. And if we can stay laser focused on that and all the inputs to that, from, you know, great rigorous academics to unlocking the regulatory environment for new schools to open, to empowering educators to serve their communities, if we stay just maniacally focused on that, I think everything else falls into place. Because when you unlock those opportunities for those kids, and it’s not just that family that becomes a huge advocate for this movement, it’s their city council member, their city commissioner, all these people start to see, wow, this is transforming this community.And when you do that, I think that is the winning focus. And so I hope that that can be the thing that we all rally around. And obviously these flashpoints will continue to happen. But that’s what we’re focused on. We’re going to stay maniacally focused on that. And I think a lot of other folks will too.Michael HornI was curious about the assessment piece of this.It seems this is much more of a trust the parents accountability model model that you’d sign up for as opposed to with traditional public schools. Let’s test. Is that accurate?Governor BushIt’s accurate, but I think parents, most states do have norm reference tests as a measurement of how kids are doing. And if you want parents to be empowered to make these choices, they need to be informed about the caliber of the education. So I personally support the idea of norm reference tests, and that’s the norm across the country. But I’m respectful of places like Arizona that, you know, want to have a little more libertarian approach. It seems to work well there, and maybe it’s part of their culture, a little bit more of their culture than it is in another place in the country.Michael HornFinal word. Governor, as you reflect over a quarter century of publicly funded choice in Florida, and we sit in a school that probably could not have existed, serving the students, you know, that could not have been in such an environment before if it weren’t for these policies that you started to put in place. What are your final reflections?Governor BushLook, when you get a chance to serve, it’s really cool over the long haul to see successive legislatures and Governors embrace this idea and build on it. And I’m proud that our political leadership over the last 25 years has accelerated this. And my hope is that it stays the course. Look, big ideas take a long time. You could be patient. You got to be stubborn. In some cases you can. You just, you gotta, you know, stick with it.Parental involvement in educationGovernor BushAnd in Florida, that’s the case, I don’t think. And I would say there are external issues as well. If we didn’t have Covid, which allowed parents to really realize that maybe their kids weren’t getting the education that they thought they were getting because they became the teachers of their kids and they saw the slop that many of them sadly had to deal with, that accelerated it even more. So I’m excited about this. I think it’s really important that we stay the course because the world we’re moving toward at warp speed is exciting, but it’s also really scary. And you want to make sure that kids can read at the end of third grade in a capable way so that they can learn in a dramatic way, and that parents know what’s best for their kids to make the right choices. And there’s an array of them. That’s the mission, and it seems to be doing quite well right now.Michael HornGovernor, Ryan, thank you so much for joining me in this conversation.The Future of Education is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Paid subscribers receive unlimited access to My Delphi. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit michaelbhorn.substack.com/subscribe

May 18, 20261 hr 14 min

Alpha School, AI and the Reinvention of Education: A Conversation with Joe Liemandt & Michael Horn

In a live conversation at WHOOP headquarters in Boston moderated by Rags Gupta, I joined Joe Liemandt, the principal of the much-discussed and debated Alpha School, to talk about the hype and hope behind AI in K-12 education. Our discussion explored how AI, when paired with a redesigned learning model centered on student motivation and mastery, could unlock student growth along a number of dimensions. And we talked about why there’s never been a better time than now to be an education entrepreneur.The Future of Education is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Michael HornSeveral weeks back, the Massachusetts AI Coalition hosted me along with Joe Liemandt in a conversation about Alpha schools, the reinvention of learning in general, the role that AI could or may not play in reinventing education. All hosted at WHOOP headquarters in a conversation that was moderated by Rags Gupta. Fascinating conversation. We covered a ton and we have a recording of it, so we thought we would repurpose it for you here on the Future of Education. Enjoy the conversation that I had with Rags Gupta and Joe Liemandt of Alpha School at WHOOP headquarters.Rags GuptaWelcome, Michael Horn. And welcome, Joe LiemandtJoe LiemandtThank you.Redesigning the school dayRags GuptaWe’re going to kick it off. And Michael, we’re going to start with you. We’re two or three years into this AI wave. Where are we and how is AI best being deployed in education today? What are you seeing out there?Michael HornYeah, It’s interesting because I think there’s a couple answers to that question. On the one hand, education, when I started, when we wrote that book, it was thought of as the backwater of technology. It’s where you never saw it, if it was there, it was rarely used, and so forth.I think we are at a very different moment where, for better or worse, AI is ubiquitous in K12 schools across the country, meaning that if you think beyond just a chatbot, or if you do think of a chatbot, it’s embedded in almost every product. Chromebook, Magic School, various apps that are being used. The average school district has nearly 3,000 apps that are being used. AI is somewhere in there, to say nothing of the fact of how students and teachers are using it on their own time. So on one level, it’s everywhere, and on the other level, I would argue that what matters far more, and I think Joe’s going to agree on this, is not the technology per se, but the learning model itself or the model of schooling itself. And so on the reinvention question of how is AI being used, there are a handful of models, I think Alpha being one, that are putting AI at the centerpiece and creating truly new school models. And that is a significant minority of the action. I would argue most of the AI is being leveraged onto the traditional status quo to either reinforce existing processes and priorities, or, frankly, in some cases, the better verb would be to exacerbate them.Rags GuptaI’m going to pull on that thread a little bit, but Joe, you’ve been studying this for a while. Where are we in the cycle of deploying AI in education?Joe LiemandtWell, I believe we’re right at the beginning of it. I do believe it’s ubiquitous. But I believe, you know, I believe there is, in all the debates, I believe there is good screen time, there is bad screen time, there is good AI, there is bad AI. And all the concerns right now about it being deployed poorly are very well founded. You know, 90% of chatbot use in schools is for cheat bots, right? And its chatbots are designed for cognitive offload, literally the opposite of learning. And if used incorrectly, we literally are going to have a generation who knows much less than they need to. Now I also obviously believe there’s good use of it and using it correctly.And I believe part of that is, at least in our whole theory, is you have to re envision the whole school day from the ground up. It enables this totally new model. And that part of it is just at the start. I’ve spent a lot of time talking to a lot of schools all over the place and you know, I, the first question I ask of them is, you know, our first commitment to every kid is that you will love school, right? And three weeks ago when we did our last survey, 43% of our students said, I’d rather go to school than go on vacation, right? Like a high bar of loving school. 90 some percent said they love it. And my first question to everybody, and they say, oh, can I use this Alpha time back model? I’m like, are you willing to redesign your school day so that kids love school more than vacation? And my view is if the answer is no, then using AI to reinforce your existing school system is not going to work. It’s going to have the same failure rate of ed tech over the last 25 years, which is 95% failure rate or something like that.Rags GuptaMichael, you’re nodding your head, it sounds like you agree. And is that what you were talking about earlier when you’re saying that AI could exacerbate existing problems today?Michael HornYeah, that’s exactly it. I mean, I think in Disrupting Class we got a few things right, we got a few things wrong. We can talk about both perhaps, but one of the things we got right was that layered on the existing system would not have the effects that people wanted it to have. That when you layered on into this industrial model as you described, where time is fixed, learning is highly variable, and we have basically advancing kids based on data manufacture, otherwise known as their birth year, that you are not going to get the impact that you want. And I think what we missed frankly in the book was just how bad that could be, which is what Joe’s alluding to in terms of the detrimental impacts sort of incoherence, frankly. Again, those 3,000 apps, like that’s not a good thing. I don’t think we know coherence in terms of curriculum and instruction and knowledge building and so forth is really important. We have a very incoherent school day right now.And then I think the second thing that we didn’t see coming, frankly is with the online usage. You put the Chromebook in front of the kid, the most powerful learning tool ever in front of anyone. And they have a billion other things that they could also be doing that are extremely motivating, distracting and so forth. And the detrimental impacts of that are real. Right. And so there’s a lot of research and Joe referenced it. There’s this 5% problem where there’s some great ed tech solutions, even relatively primitive in terms of the form factor of what you’re asking and how someone can input an answer and so forth, get really good results. And only 5% of kids really use them.Because we haven’t actually re-architected the school models to create the feedback loops and motivation where they say I would want to do that or that’s built into my day. And that’s the core of the experience in a way that actually moves us past that 5% number today.Rags GuptaSo Joe, walk us through how you guys are doing it today. Like what is that? I mean that 2x learning in two hours. It’s a big statement.Joe LiemandtYeah.Rags GuptaHow does that work?Joe LiemandtSo the first thing you have to. We’ll talk about how it works, but the first thing you have to believe is that we’ve known for 40 years how kids could learn two, five or 10 times faster. It’s not the AIs that actually do that, it’s the field of learning science. I’m sure we have some Harvard, GSE students here or Stanford or any of them. Where there have been papers written about how kids can do this. Right. Where if you have, used things like if everybody had a personalized tutor, if you hold kids to a mastery standard instead of a time based standard, if you were able to embed things like spaced repetition, right, instead of cramming, all these concepts have been out, there’s 10,000 papers written about it. But they all started with this model that doesn’t work with a teacher in front of a classroom.Right. When you have one to 30. You can’t do mastery based learning. You can’t make sure that every kid is in the zone of proximal development where they’re getting 80 to 85% of their lessons and questions correct. Right? You just can’t do that with a teacher in front of a classroom model. And the enabler of all of this is with a personalized tutor who sits here and gives you an unending stream of content lessons that enforce a mastery standard. At 80 to 85%, kids can learn 10 times faster. And so the way we operationalize it in our school is you come in and you actually have a 15 minute launch.Think Tony Robbins for kids and growth mindset and all that. And then they sit down at their computer and they do 25 minute sessions with breaks between them and they’re going to do your math, science, language, reading, writing, all the core subjects and they’re doing 25 minutes at a time. And during that two hours they are going to learn twice as much as if they sat in class for six and did homework. And that’s all measured by standardized tests. So one of the first standardized tests, obviously a lot of debate around them. 60% of Alpha families before they came to Alpha didn’t like standardized tests. The day you join, you decide standardized tests are the greatest thing ever. Because you definitely don’t believe Joe when he says, don’t worry, your kid’s learning, right? You’re like, show me the proof.Show me the proof. And so we do everything with standardized tests. We’re the highest on any, you know, standardized test. We’re the best academic performing school in the country, right? On every grade level, every subject is top 1%. You know, our freshmen, when we get to high school, we switch from NWA map, which we use, to SATs and APs, right? Our freshman average of SATs is over 1400. Right. Our high school is 1550.Deciding future skills for studentsJoe LiemandtAnd so our ability to score max to show parents, yes, they get a five on Calc PC, they do know this stuff. And it only took two hours is the big unlock. And then the second part of how it operates on a day, as principal, the one thing I can tell you that parents really, really don’t like and wouldn’t want is us to send the kids home after two hours. They’re like, you got them all day. And that actually leads to what I think, think right now nobody believes that first part and we’re pushing out enough data and I don’t know, and all of you, two years from now, everybody in this audience is going to be like, okay, that works. We’re going to have enough data pushed out at scale and the set will be big enough where the real discussion that’s going to occur for the next decade is going to be what are the skills that they should be learning the rest of the day? That this new world’s coming, we all don’t know what it is. We all are guessing. We’re like this, you know, I talk to a lot of kindergarten moms, right? And we’re like 12 years from now, right? What is the world we’re getting them ready for, right? And he talked about, right, Rags talked about, here’s the life skills that we’ve done, here’s what we’re doing, right? But I believe over the next 12 years it’s going to evolve, right? But every parent and I believe every society is going to be faced with the decision of what are the skills that matter that we’re going to get these kids ready for?And that’s what, you know, every department, you know, there’s lots of ministers of education, right? Departments of education where instead of what the classic reading, writing, arithmetic is, because that’s going to be for all intents and purposes, commoditized, right? That you can learn that in two hours. They’re going to be spending their time saying, how are we getting either my kids ready if you’re a parent or a population ready, right? How are we getting our society ready for the future?Rags GuptaMichael, what’s your take on all this? What would you say, what would Clay Christensen have said about a model like this and what else are you seeing out there, other models similar to this?Michael HornWell, so let me just like say something that we got really wrong in Disrupting Class and start there to answer the question, I think, which is we had this notion that it would be disrupting the classroom model within school, that there would be. So for those that don’t know, disruptive innovation, basic ideas, relatively primitive product comes, more affordable, more convenient, more accessible, simpler to use. People who can’t get access to it are delighted with this quote unquote more primitive thing that then gets better, powered by a technology enabler. And people flock out to that because they’re like, wait a minute, I want that thing. And that’s how transformation occurs in sector after sector. Now, when we looked at the US at the time in 2006, I guess when we were writing it, I see some of my classmates back there when we started. So there was no nonconsumption of schooling in the US, it was compulsory, there was some homeschooling. But as Joe said, the problem with homeschooling is the word home, it doesn’t scale.Rise of microschools and education savings accountsMichael HornAnd so the challenge was like, where are these areas? And so we thought within school there’s all these classes that schools would like to offer and can’t. And the challenge I think, as we saw, is that yeah, you can grow digital learning within those environments they have, but it would be subsumed by the rules of the school. So the seat time being the biggest, frankly, and what I think has really changed pretty dramatically. So about 2013, (20)14, this notion of microschools started to become bigger and bigger in the US and then the big change was education savings accounts, which all of a sudden says dollars to the families in about almost 20 states across the country now. And these new schooling models, I have a choice. Do I go to the quote unquote free public school, give up this money that I can use a la carte [on] my kids’ education, or do I spend it now on something that’s much more customized for their needs, desires, et cetera, et cetera. And I think that is like, that’s creating a wave of entrepreneurship. I think it’s never been a better time to be a K12 school entrepreneur than right now.The tools, the policy, families looking for other options is, I think, a big opportunity. So when I look at the landscape, I think we’re going to see more and more of these models. I could name half a dozen right now, but the point is we’re going to see more come along and I’ll just make one plug, which is in my mind, TimeBack might be one of these technology enablers kernels that then powers a whole wave of entrepreneurship depending on what Joe decides to do and how it works. Right. There’s a bunch of design questions there, but like that may be part of this technology enabler of a lot more school models that appear.Rags GuptaSo yeah, a lot to unpack there. But just, just as a clarification, TimeBack, that’s the name of the platform that Alpha built, right. And yet just talk, yeah, talk about TimeBack.Joe LiemandtBack to me becoming principal. I’m a product guy, right? And so four years ago I told MacKenzie, who had started the school, you know, I’m in, I believe Gen AI is going to be able to get this out to a billion kids, but I have to be principal. I have to go see what happens when fifth graders get in a fight and when parents yell at you and how do we design a product? And you know, every educator will tell you, the key that you need to educate a child is first and foremost, the most important part is you need a motivated student. And then second, you need to put them in lessons of the correct difficulty. Not too easy, not too hard. Those are the two core elements. Ed Tech historically has done the second well.Whether it’s AI or not AI, you can give people assessment and figure out what they know and don’t know and give them lessons. Because knowledge grade and age grade are two totally different things, as you said. Right. And the problem is when the gap between those gets too big is when the teacher in front of the classroom model fails. Right. And so we were able to. Our engine is able to do that second part. Give kids lessons of the correct difficulty.But if I don’t get students to engage, it’s useless. This is the 5% problem. Right. And so, you know, and MacKenzie, you know, when her first commitment is kids will love school. So I come in my first week, I’m talking to some fifth graders, you know, and they’re new, and I’m like, all right, do you love school? And they’re like, no. And I’m like, what would make you love school? And they’re like, less school. I’m like, how much less? None. I’m like, that seems a little light, you know? And so I was like, how about this?Would you engage in these apps for two hours? Like, no screwing around. Like, really engage with them for two hours. If I made sure the other four hours were totally awesome, that you loved them, that you would just sit here and do that, and the kids are like, okay, that seems fair. And so, literally, the number one motivator four years in, that I can tell you, of kids, is give kids their time back. And if you give your kids your time back, there’s a lot of things you’ll read about. Alpha weaves, lots of motivational models, and we’ve talked through all of them. It’s a whole other talk of extrinsic versus intrinsic. But the single biggest motivator by far is give kids their time back.And so when you tell kids you can learn all your academics in two hours and then do what you want the rest of the day, do all the awesome stuff you love. They engage in the apps. And so I went to my team. I’m like, okay, we got two hours. Let’s go take every learning science thing. Dean Schwartz at Stanford’s got a book, A to Z, where I’m really like, okay, we’re gonna take chapter K, right? We’re gonna implement it in the software, right? And we take all these learning science concepts, put it in and get two hours. Cause that’s what we got. And so the whole key of this software is to give kids their time back.And then the afternoons are all these great workshops that they love right. And that they engage in. And I’ll give you sort of the most extreme case that’s it’s not Alpha, but it’s a sister school that we have in Austin or in Texas, which is, we have Texas Sports Academy, right. It’ll probably be announced later this week that we’ll have thousands of kids in Texas Sports Academy who are all families under $65,000 got a voucher, right. Who now next year will be able to access Alpha academics. But the model there, just as an example, gives those kids your time back. The average kid coming into our Sports Academy is in the bottom 25% academically, right? Below $65,000 family income and their knowledge grade versus age grade.Improving student engagement and motivationJoe LiemandtBottom 25% in America means if you’re in seventh or eighth grade, if you’re a middle schooler, you’re really in third grade, right? You need third grade phonics, you need to understand, you need to learn what seven times eight is to fluency. And so our students who haven’t been engaging, right, Our middle school as an example in Dallas is run by six time NBA all star Jermaine o’Neal. And there are kids who when you sit and talk to them, they’re like, I used to skip school 25% of the time, right? We just get stoned in the bathroom and now I wake my mom up to make sure we’re never late because I gotta get my two hours in because I’m not gonna miss one minute of practice with Jermaine, right? That starts at noon. If they get through their lessons, right? And those kids are learning as fast as anybody in the $50,000 high end private school, right? Because they’re motivated, right. That you solve the motivation problem. And so when you think about it, whether it’s the Alpha workshops and you hear about all these crazy things, on the entrepreneurship one, we have fifth graders launching food trucks.Our middle schoolers, you know, learned Ukrainian and went to Ukraine to train a thousand Ukrainian refugees on the software and all these crazy great workshops that motivate kids, right? What really matters is what is that afternoon that’s going to get them to engage. And if you give them their time back, they will.Rags GuptaSo, you know, let’s talk about that access. And you know, there’s this notion of AI and you know, it can raise the ceiling and there’s also the floor, right. Or, you know, is it, is it going to raise the floor? Is it going to widen the gap that’s out there today or could it narrow it? Michael, what’s your take?Michael HornI think, gosh, I hate to be a broken record. I’m going to say it depends on the school model again. Right. So I actually think it’s going to, I think it certainly raises the floor when we rethink the school model, but I think it’s going to lower dramatically the floor potentially because of the cognitive offloading problem that Joe described up front when we have not put that thought into it. And so, you know, when I talk to a traditional school that’s trying to implement an app, I say, okay, like tell, help me understand your current model. And they have to be able to articulate that up front. And then like, is there a discrete use where you could use, you know, a mirror learning is a great way, AI powered way to build literacy skills for young kids. Great peer review research and so forth.Can you create a dedicated block for that? That’s something that’s going to raise the floor. Right? But again, sort of this unmitigated use without thought and intentionality and design around the model itself. I’m pretty worried about where that goes if we don’t, if we’re not more deliberate. And I think that’s why, and just for everyone here, like that broadly, I think why we have this weird parallel track where you can have the kind of enthusiasm and excitement around something like Alpha that you have simultaneously is on Capitol Hill you’ll have hearings about banning technology in schools. And so like how to resolve the dichotomy. I think that’s what it is. It’s like you actually have to think about the model itself first.Rags GuptaThat’s well put. Joe, any take on that and feel,Joe LiemandtI think this whole debate around AI is it can be used poorly and learning outcomes are going to plummet. And the only part that I add is it’s occurring because the kids are already using it. And so the longer you wait, you know, so we have hundreds of kids who transfer in from high end private schools and into Alpha, right. And these are coming in from $50,000, best schools in the country. And our middle schoolers, right. When they transfer in, on average, when they transferred in August were 2.2 grade levels.We have sixth and seventh and eighth graders who can’t write a grammatically correct third grade, fourth grade sentence because they’ve been using ChatGPT to write. They were never taught sentences. They were never taught how to build an essay and they just cognitively offload and have it written. The academic standards, because it’s being used by the kids at home and the current system isn’t set up to stop it.Universities have. Stanford for the first time in 100 years now is proctoring tests because cheating is so rampant. Right. When I was there, right. It was total honor code, but totally the culture of what is considered cheating and what is acceptable. Now they proctor. My daughter goes there and she’s like, I’m like, proctors, really? And she’s like, oh, dad, the cheating’s crazy, right? And they won’t. You can’t go to the bathroom for too long or the proctor’s like.They’re doing it, which is, you know, at Stanford. So this whole concept of it’s something that needs to be addressed. It’s a problem. Now the second part though, the other side of. Is it going to raise the ceilings? You know, is it going to raise the roof? I believe done, right. It’s going to raise the floor like crazy, right? And we are going to take, we’re going to show, right. That what matters more is not your SES, which is our current system, right. Is all SES based in a time based system.Selecting schools based on motivationJoe LiemandtIt’s going to be motivation based, right? Like if you take my Sports Academy guy and then you move them to my gifted school, right? Where they’re not excited by the motivation, it’s not going to work. And so I believe schools are going to have to select for motivation. Right? Did you design a school that the kid loves more than vacation? And if you love sports, you’re going to want to be in that. Gifted school is one. We have a gifted school just for that data side on the roof. Those are kids who, when you say what would make you love school? They say more academics. I want math olympia, third power hour. Can I have a third power this two hours not enough, right? And those kids, it’s crazy how much. Right.On how much they’re learning. So we have, you know, I have kindergarteners in sixth grade. My third and fourth graders outscore 50% of the high school graduates in the country, right. And they just take to it. And so I believe both sides are doable, right? You can do both, but it’s how you implement it.Rags GuptaSo let’s keep on, on that track. You know, how does that scale, you know, you talked about reaching a billion kids eventually, right, Joe, and how does that, how does that happen? Right. And you’ve, you’ve tried with public, you know, in the past, right? And yeah. How do you see that play out? And then we’ll go to you, Michael.Joe LiemandtYeah. And so to his point that he made, which is there’s two tracks as sort of, I see it, which is there’s, you know, the U.S. system, you sort of have $100 billion private school market today. Right. ESAs vouchers, the ECCA next year. ECCA, if it was fully implemented, be like an extra 200 billion that would go to parents to do private school.Rags GuptaWhat is the ECCA for people?Joe LiemandtThe ECCA is a nationwide voucher program that starts January 1st. States are doing it and you’re going to get tens of billions, hundreds of billions are. Every American can take a seventeen hundred dollar tax deduction if they give it to a scholarship granting organization. And so 100 million times 170, 1700 dollars is what the size of that is. So the largest back to your entrepreneur shop, the largest subsidy outside of health care in American history. And that starts January 1st. And so the current market’s 100 billion, which is still plenty big.It’s going to get even bigger and in those markets. And what I see is parents wake up and say, what is the solution I can buy tomorrow for my kid because time’s a wasting. The urgency is off the rail. Like for everybody here who’s interested in an Alpha school, right. When we meet after this, they’re going to be like, is the school going to be open in May or June? Right. I heard you have a summer program.Is that summer program, is it going to be ready? There’s no time. Right. The pressure we have to scale is enormous. There’s 50 Alphas that are going to open up. I’m flying around the country and every city is like this, right. That every parent who wants this is pushing hard. Now the flip side of it is on the public school side, you have a different set of issues, right. That I believe we’ll be able to show people.Yes, it would work. Right. But we’re working with lots of states. We’re rolling it out to public. There will be public schools in August running on our system. Right. But there’s also states where we’re not running on the public school because they have a rule and regulations. Education is highly, highly regulated where they say things like, there needs to be seven hours of seat time.And I’m like, I’m two hour learning. I can’t, I can’t bridge that gap. Right. And so that whole thing like if Massachusetts has a million kids. You spend 23 to 25 grand a kid. Right. We absolutely could build an Alpha like model that would deliver. Right.Awesome MCAS, if you want to use your standardized test, MCAS , academic outcomes for those million kids. Right. We would have to develop different school systems to have different motivational models. Right. We’d have to have a sports academy, gifted and we have a Montessori school and wilderness school and an Alpha. Right. All these different ones, you could totally deliver that. Except.And my team will be up here tomorrow. Right. We make it, we do a deal where it’d be 100% outcome based. If we don’t deliver it, don’t pay us. Right. That my team would love to go do that. The problem is they’re then going to meet and I don’t know what rules Massachusetts has, but, you know, seven hours might be one of them. Right.And there’s a whole bunch of other ones that are going to prohibit or slow down how fast public schools adopt it. And so our answer in the short term of how we get it to a billion kids is we’re going direct to the parents who have urgency. And if you want the most extreme example, and if we just sort of keep it among us because it’s not really announced is, you know, we have. That kids will play and have as much fun as if they were playing a video game and they will get to top 1% academic performance and that will be free to learn for 500 million kids. Right. And so back to just reach, we’re going to be coming up with a lot of things where you have to solve motivation. You can’t just do edtech. Right.90% of the solution is motivation. 10% is the edtech. And so you’ll see us. Right. How do we get reach? How do we get cost? How do we get that out there? But once things like that are out, every parent’s going to say, wait, what are they doing the rest of the day? What are the life skills we care about? The whole. What are we really defining as development of a child for the next decade?Rags GuptaMichael, what’s your take on that? Do you agree?Michael HornI mean, with a lot of that, yeah.I think that we’re an unprecedented opportunity and I think it’s largely going to start outside the public system for the reasons just said. And parents are voting with their feet right now, I think, depending on how you think about it. But if you want to be really provocative, 50 plus percent of kids are already in schools of choice as measured by where they bought the house or by taking advantage of some form of school choice, private school, charter school, something like that in the country, if you look at certain states, frankly. So let’s just take Florida. That has probably the longest history with education choice. And I actually like to use the phrase education choice because what you’re seeing families there do increasingly is say, I actually want a couple classes at my public school district. I want the world’s best tutor for this here. My kid wants piano here and like assembling.Joe LiemandtRight.Michael HornAnd so what you’re starting to see there, because so many families are opting into these alternative forms that are rethinking education with entrepreneurs driving some really interesting things in these communities is public school districts are saying, wait a second, we have a choice, in effect, we just let this happen or we compete. And so you are seeing public school districts. I’ve got students here at Harvard who are profiling some public schools in North Carolina, I believe, who have their own microschools. You’ve got places in Florida that are unbundling different parts. Like, we are actually the best at doing this in the area. Let’s make it open. Right.And so you’re starting to see innovation and so forth. And, and again, I’m not saying everyone’s going to unbundle. That’s not the message here. But the message I think is you’re going to start to see a lot more innovation from all sectors as the pressure ramps up.Rags GuptaThe pressure on the traditional bundle.Michael HornThe pressure on the traditional bundle and parents voting with their feet. I mean, gotten to hear your story. And I think a lot of families have had that where they look at their fifth graders, the homework that they’re bringing home, and they’re saying, are you kidding? And what happened during COVID seeing it up close, plus these policy changes, plus this opportunity for entrepreneurship creates a real opportunity to rethink something that’s been very, very rigid in this country for a long time.Rags GuptaAnd you’re touching nerves because our fifth grader, I think in September came back with a worksheet or two. And see me afterwards, I’ll show you a picture. And I think that was the straw that broke the camel’s back. It was outrageous. And we’re in a Blue Ribbon school in a really good school district. And yeah, so you’re touching nerves there. Let’s go to the human element of this. Actually someone in the audience, Brandon, he wrote something which is that his current test for AI is does it create more time for human relationships?You hear about AI in schools and some of the press out there and you sort of think about this dystopian future of like, are kids just plugged in, you know, and just like on screens all day and just sort of like, you know, not talking to anybody and so on, right? What is, you know, I mean, how does Alpha handle that? And then Michael, let’s go to, you know, how do you see the humanity that AI can enable?Rethinking the future of educationJoe LiemandtYeah. And so great, great question for every parent, which is we view, right? They are on computers for two hours a day and all the good screen time, bad screen time, you have to do it the rest of the day. They are in project based workshops dealing with humans, right? With adult, right. I believe in 20 years 90% of parents are going to drop their kids off at a building and in that building are going to be other kids and adults, right? ie school. Now, if we do our job right, what happens during that six hours a day, seven hours a day is completely different than what we all experienced. But socialization and relationship building, right? It’s one of the life skills. We spend lots of time, right, actually developing those skills. You know, in the average high school, you’re not taught socialization, you experience it, right? And when you go into every mean girl movie, right, you go in, you experience it.Our middle school program, like the number one we, our middle school program is get kids ready for high school. And so on the academic side, you sort of dial what do you want in your ISEE or what’s your percentile? But the number one thing that kids care about, that they’re terrified, is not academics and it’s the high school social scene. So all our workshops are totally geared about socialization and relationship building because that’s what they care about and that’s what they, those are the skills you need. You know, my oldest daughter, who’s a sophomore at Stanford, loves academics, you know, introvert, you know, in high school I just told her guide. I was like, she needs to spend all her time on relationship building and socialization, right? And she got her to write and make a substack. So she started having to build an audience. She now has tens of thousands of moms who read it every week. But like that Guide. Right.That adult. Right. That trusted caring adult would sit there. It took her six, her name’s Chloe, Harvard grad. It took her six months to convince my daughter to send a DM out there. She just wrote no. Terrified.But six months to finally be able to do it. And those are the kind of back to the skills you want. As a parent, I’m like, that’s the skills that I want kids to develop.Rags GuptaOur kids did a shadow day in New York and gave us a lot of comfort because one of the things they had to do is they had to figure out some dish to prepare, but they had to be unanimous consent on what to prepare.And it was, the kids had to figure that out. It wasn’t the adults actually inserting themselves to do it.Joe LiemandtYeah. No. In high school, back to teamwork and leadership, right? Most people believe the life skills are taught in after school sports. 50% of America says the place you learn life skills is after school sports, leadership, teamwork, grit, hard work. Right. And for us in eighth grade, one of ours is we have a grit teamwork combo, which is all the kids have to run a tough mudder adult course and cross the finish line at the same time. And the tough mudder is the easy part. Getting a group of 8th graders to cross the finish line at the same time is so hard.Right? Back to teamwork and socialization and all those skills. And, and, but that’s. And, and it does. They have, they spend weeks and weeks and weeks. Right. Because we have all this time in the afternoon to develop those skills. Right. Every school historically has said, we want entrepreneurship, we want all these life skills.There’s no time. There’s no time. Everybody, every kid in high school who’s in the SAT grind and spending all time on the hours and hours of homework. When are you going to teach these life skills? Alpha has half the day for 12 years to fill up. Right. We have tons of time. Right. We’re making up workshops.Oh, let’s try this one. Right? These are. Right. That’s what you need. If you don’t get time back, you can’t fix the current system.Michael HornWhat else to add? So same statement, right? That to me, a good AI tool I agree with Brandon, like it is one that actually increases human connectivity, not decreases it. I think that’s 100% correct. And frankly, like a lot of the AI tools that are useful are not those that are going to necessarily be student facing. They might be assessed to give rapid feedback. They might write, everyone loves talking about data driven decision making in education. The big irony of that is we know from research that if you give data with no ability to do anything with that data and, and it labels you, it actually kills motivation. It does not increase motivation.So something that actually is actionable and I can do something to improve performance, that’s a dramatically different use of these tools. So I think that has always been true that technology to actually increase the human connectivity. And when people say, oh my gosh, what’s gonna happen in the classroom, like I love that you all showed up, but this is not the most human connection that we can do in a lecture like setting. It’s the individual conversations you all will be having afterwards that’s like the real human connectivity. Right. And so these opportunities, whether working in projects, working on a sports thing, whatever, working on the actual thing that you learned in your academics that now is actually relevant to something that you’re going to do together with a group, that’s where I think the real magic happens. And I guess just one last thing, Rags, on this, which is some of our, we have this research around what’s the job to be done of why students hire quote unquote school and what does it compete with? And what you realize from a student’s perspective is they really just want two things.They want a place where they can feel successful and they want a place where for most of them they can have fun with friends. There are a couple exceptions on that one, but most of them want to have a place where they can have fun with friends. And the places where you experience success and have fun with friends is historically were extracurricular sports, music, like after the school day, which I think speaks volumes about how we thought about this. And so to me the question is how do you actually make the school day a place where every kid is experiencing success and having fun with friends and when they disrupt class, right. That now it’s actually, this is actually part of the learning.Rags GuptaLet me, let me push you on that and then we’ll go to questions right afterwards. But you know, we’re hearing about this great inflation, right? We’re hearing valedictorians are in remedial math. Right. They’re not, you know, valedictorians in Massachusetts are not being able to finish four year colleges. Right. So they might feel successful.Michael HornI’m glad you said it right. What about success?That’s the other part of it. I’m glad you said it right. That objective yardstick matters. And whether it’s the external assessment or frankly, as I produce a real project, having real professionals come in and give me actual feedback, like real, not my teacher said, yeah, pat on the back, gold star. But like real feedback to a real standard. I think the best, I teach at Harvard, but I think the best from a pedagogical standpoint, University, one of the best is Western Governor’s University. They have, most of you probably haven’t heard of it.They educate a quarter million students a year online in a mastery based system. They have four different roles for faculty. One of them is like teaching and working with you and helping you master things and so forth. There’s a whole separate faculty member whose sole job is to look at your performance against the standards to see is this mastery or not? And if you didn’t achieve it, you can’t complain and say, oh, they hated me because we had a personality clash because that person assessing you does not know you, right? And so they, and there’s inter-rater reliability. There’s other people also looking at the performance so that you actually have to do something that’s excellent in masters and thank God because they’re training nurses and people who are working in the healthcare system and so forth. And I want them to master it. Yeah.Rags GuptaYou want to say something about standards?Importance of high standards at AlphaJoe LiemandtWell, I think there’s a couple things on standards. One, this is why we use standardized tests. We don’t use grades at Alpha because they’re made up and subjective and inflation. We literally just take standardized tests and show you your results, right? And knowledge is just something how much. And if you don’t like your score, you just go back and learn more, right? It’s just, you know, they’re a reflection of how much you know, right? And so that’s one. But the other part, just about standards, one of the things that we talk, that people are worried about is because of all these things we do, which are our Alpha standards too high? Is it too hard for my kid? And one of the things that we tell everybody before they come in is you have to believe this in the Alpha world, because this is what we believe and do is the key to my child’s happiness is high standards, right? If you say I can’t build a school that kids love more than vacation if I have low standards. The reason kids want to come, you’ll see if you go on my Twitter account, they, these kids were in over the weekend, right? They were doing a hackathon and building robots and drones and doing all this stuff, you know, and the reason they’re coming in and they like school more than vacation is because they are working with their friends on a project that’s hard, that has meaning.That’s why. Right. They’re building an app. Right. We have a project back to character development. You know, where the key is. All of our students believe the key to my happiness is contributing to my community. Right.And so we, last May, my high school students said, hey, can we keep the school open this summer because we don’t want to take a break. Right. And that was. I was like, I guess we’re open all summer. But they’re building an app to convince 100 million teens the key to their happiness is contributing their community. And they’re working with influencers and stuff. And so they, you know, the get all the social status and they love it and it’s really hard.And you know, once again, if you go to the sports, as the model people, I’m from Texas. Everybody in Texas expects people on the football team to be there in the summer. And the reason they joined, they want to be on the Westlake state champion football team is it’s the hardest thing the kid’s ever done. He’ll remember it the rest of his life. Right? And school’s the same thing. If you want to build a school they love more than vacation, you have to give these guys something to work on that they love. That’s hard, that’s challenging with their friends.Right? And that’s what we just do all day. Right? Is that world. And that’s when we say we can re envision it. You can now. And so back to standards. You either need on the academic side, there are standards, just absolute standards. And mastery get 100% right. We have a school, we have a building with 250 kids that gets more hundreds on the Texas Star than a school district of 100,000.Right. Because that’s what you do with mastery. And time based systems don’t. Right. And every kid at Alpha, if you talk to parents, less than 5% of Alpha parents when they come in, think their kid can get 100 on the Texas Star. Right. Just the GT kids. Right.95% of Alpha kids believe it because they’ve done it. Right. And that’s the difference when. When you get a mastery based model, you know, versus a grade inflation grade based.Rags GuptaWell, thank you. Let’s make this more human and let’s go throw it open to some questions. A lot of questions. Okay, let’s go with this gentleman here.Unknown Question AskerThank you both for your time. Two, I think quick questions. Who is this not for, like, what are the types of kids that this doesn’t work well for? And then the second question is, as far as I understand, it’s for profit and why. Why not non for profit?Joe LiemandtYeah, I’ll address the non profit first and then, and then do who it’s not for. Which is the reason we need for profit is we need scale. Right? We need scale, which is if you’re nonprofit. I’m a product guy, right? A nonprofit who has a great product, burns through its donations very quickly. There’s a lot of really good charter schools who I met with who have 3,000 person wait lists. I’m like, why don’t you open another campus? They’re like, we’re waiting on a $40 million donation to open another campus.Basic schools, you know, there’s tons of them where if you put yourself as a non profit, you’re basically hostage to the donation base. And fundamentally, you know, education is a trillion dollar K through 12 in the US right. If you sum all the donations made to education, it’s not enough to scale. Right. Capitalism has to provide capital to transform education. Right? And you want to get the Fortnite team to come down and scale you. It’ll be free for 500 million kids. Just like Fortnite was free.Fortnite was also the most profitable video game ever built. There’s 10 million moms in America who will pay 100 bucks a month for their kid to be top 1% performance when they ask for it. And that money is what’s going to fund it. And so that for profit loop is required. Right. Alpha can get as much capital as we want to open as many of these schools that parents want. And that’s obviously.Right. A different one, which is there’s also a different part that actually I got from listening to all your podcasts, which was you can’t do disruptive innovation when the competitive product’s free. Right. You actually have to come top down. And that’s why Alpha is expensive. You need to actually do the Apple disruptive or Tesla disruptive innovation, not the bottom up.And so our view is we are going to get it to a billion kids, but the way to start is at the high end, right? So that you actually create the funding so that you can do the rest. No, I mean, I put a billion dollars in, but that’s a drop in the bucket, right. When you talk about a trillion dollar industry. Right. The amount of capital that will be required. Second, who’s it not for, you know, number one, you know, the technology is not perfect and works for everybody, which is, you know, at the easiest part, the language models can’t teach, you know, four and five year olds how to read. It can’t understand.What they’re saying. And so we have human teachers, right. Reading specialists who bootstrap you into reading. Right. Once you can read, then I can take you on. The second one for a parent would be if I can’t get you to engage in the app, it’s not going to work. Right. So if I can’t get, if I can’t motivate, right.And I don’t have you in an environment where you’re motivated, then I’m worse than standard school because you’re not going to learn anything. Right. Hopefully, at least if you’re sitting in class hearing it, you would have learned something. Right. And so I have to get engagement and we measure it and any parent where engagement isn’t working. Right. Our guide’s entire job is figuring out how to get the kid to engage. Right.But back, as I said, if you take a parent who’s like, I want my kid in GT school and the kid doesn’t wake up and say, I want more academics. Right. Even they can be as smart as you want. It’s not going to solve. And so you have to. It really is. You have to solve the motivational problem to get it to work.And then, then you also just then get into the school model itself. Right. Where our model, while we have an individualized tutor, right. That gives them academic lessons and, you know, personalized learning. If you need a one on one human, our model’s not built for that. It would. If you need.A Fusion academy, which has a one on one person, you know, I believe they could use technology, but our model doesn’t solve that problem. Right. It’s when you’re designing your school. Right. I believe schools now instead of one size fits all, you’re going to design a school for the kids. And that’s going to influence a lot of different things about how the day is spent and where you spend your money.Rags GuptaYeah.Joe MichaelFellow disruptor Joe Michael. I’m really appreciative of this work that you’re doing. It’s so critical. We work in a nonprofit that works to help all schools think about how to make the motivation problem solved. Right. We know that kids won’t engage if they’re not showing up. We’ve seen results that have shown a 35% decrease in chronic absenteeism 230% increases in family engagement. I very soon in the future see a way where this type of learning, this like 2 hour solution will be in all schools.What I worry about is the other four to five hours, right. If the pond is not ready for this innovation, how can we support schools to rethink what they do with that time? My concern is that in low income schools, we’re going to see more control compliance and less creativity and innovation. So I’d love to hear. I know that’s not the specific problem you’re working on right now, but I’d love to hear your thoughts on maybe some of the key levers that you see to disrupt that mindset.Alpha’s future in educationJoe LiemandtYeah, well, I, this is, I completely agree with this. I love that you’ve jumped over the hurdle on everybody’s going to have two hour learning because I hope the rest of you get there because once you do, this is all you worry about, right. I believe, you know, Alpha has the best learning science team in the world, right. Who is building these engines on the academic side, making these work. You know, I believe over the next 10 years, actually Alpha Core is what we call our life skills development, right. That team is actually going to be the ones who we think are going to be inventing the IP that really matters. And I believe every department of education. In every state, right. Has to be spending their time moving, moving their budget to say this is what the problem’s going to be.Right, because these skills matter. And what is the curriculum in the afternoon. That’s going to deliver it. And I believe that’s, you know, back to, you and I are over it and we should sit and talk because we’ve jumped the, jumped the chasm. But I do believe a couple years from now when we have that discussion, that will be the discussion with a group like this. So.Rags GuptaOh, and Michael, you’ve talked a lot about that about, like, why don’t high schoolers or kids work doing community projects in the community?Michael HornNo, I mean, I think flipping the school day, right, is the way I would think about this. Right. And we flipped classroom is what it is, but flipping the school day so that more of this time is spent on these sorts of projects and real world opportunities. And I would go further, right. I think in this era of AI, everyone says, well, what are we doing for the future? We don’t know.But what I think we do know is the closer you can tighten that loop between experience and schooling. So you’re getting experience in schooling itself, the more ready you are going to be to jump into work, to set goals, to learn what you need to do to be productive and maybe most important, build social capital. Because the way people get jobs is through who you know. And we have a mindset of kids, students who think that, oh, I apply online to get jobs, not realizing that north of 55%, maybe as high as 80% today, jobs are filled by network. That’s going to get even more so because right now it’s AI applying to AI, applicant tracking systems with AI generated resumes. You better meet people. And the only way you bridge that gap is through school itself is to pull experience into it. I think.Rags GuptaAdam, let’s go to you.AdamSo maybe zooming out for a moment. If we end up in this situation where we sort of realize some of this vision and we have an amazing school for sports and we have a gifted school and we have the school that’s for drama and art and kids who go there and the ones wholove entrepreneurship, do we end up. Maybe there’s the one for the kids who are super passionate about evangelical Christianity and the ones who are super passionate about atheism. And we end up in a situation where we’ve sort of driven polarization into our societies. Or you don’t get a chance to hang out with the jocks. The jocks don’t get put on a play.Rags GuptaYeah, yeah, that’s a great question.Joe LiemandtNo, I think that’s a great one. Which is. I actually believe that the model, I mean our high schools are that today of the integrated one and you have the jocks and you have drama. Right. It’s after school activities are this model we’re looking at and we’re not at the scale yet. I literally believe school is going to evolve into a mall where in the morning you are going to have the two hours and then your afternoon is like shopping in a mall. And no, you don’t have to do gifted academics the whole time or sports the whole time. And there will be cross, in this case cross functional domains that you’re going to want to have.You’ll have a specialization. Right. Because that’s what I like. But I want to, you know, whatever is doing that. But you’re going to do other things. Our, you know, at our sports academy they very much are. I’m doing public speaking right now at Sports Academy. It’s called post game press conference because that’s how you motivate a 10 year old.Or financial literacy and entrepreneurship is a NIL contract. And so you’re spinning it for what they like. Right. But fundamentally back to socialization being it, you’re going to want to have all of those. One of the other things I think schools are networks first, right? They’re actually, whether it’s a parent network or the kid network of your friends, schools are primarily a network that then tags on some other things like academics.Michael HornI largely agree with that. I didn’t expect you to actually say that. So my vision of the future of schooling is much more actually similar where there are actually community centers in effect, and that different centers of excellence, if you will, are plugging into them that gives students choice. But I’m very skeptical that single school model scales and educates everyone, but I think principles underlying learning do scale. So the analogy I like to use is rather than thinking about software engineering, when we think about the grade size, you were just talking about, civil engineering, which is to say how I built the bridge in Boston is different from San Francisco with earthquakes, but the laws undergirding that, right., actually are the same and we haven’t designed systems like that right now. And so the other reason I think this is important is as a 14 year old kid, I don’t know who I am, right.Breaking down societal barriersMichael HornAnd so I want to be able to try on these different pathways and identities and not have what I think right now we have, which is huge inertia or friction that prevents me from saying, oh, I’m gonna go jump with that group now. Right. And how do we break down those barriers? Last thing I will say is the choice to get out, frankly, at the school. I also think it will reduce some of the polarization right now in society because I think we tend to fight in our school communities over the 10 to 20% of things we disagree on. When you look at the actual survey data across the country, we agree on like 70 to 80% of the stuff. And if we can just take some of the friction or the tension out of the system, I actually think it’ll do more to bring communities together than what I perceive the current system, which is more segregated, frankly by political belief than based on race at the moment.Joe LiemandtI’ve listened to all your podcasts, which is why, and read everything you’ve ever read. No, I totally believe it, actually.Rags GuptaMichael, let’s go to you.Michael (question asker)Hi. So as a parent, it’s very clear that the health of the school, the performance of a school has a heck of a lot to do with the people who are running the school, the staff. So my question is like, what is your model for how you hire people, how is it different, maybe from how a public school would hire people? And are these people. This is crass. Are these people making more or less or the same? Like do you have to pay more to get…Joe LiemandtYeah, let’s talk about teachers, right? This is important, right? The adults in the building, they’re going to be here forever, right? Kids need adults to, a caring adult to help grow and develop them. And so at our school, you know, and this back to my background, I was like, okay, why is it so hard to hire teachers and what’s the issue? So, you know, a teacher spec is basically a complicated spec, right? You need five things generally. One, you have to be a domain expert. I know seventh grade science. Second, you actually have to be able to teach it, not just know it.Third, you have to connect and motivate students. Fourth, you have to deal with parents. And fifth, admin, right? And so that’s a complicated spec. And in my back business background, any HR director would say that’s a complicated spec. So in America, the way we try to solve that is by underpaying them. And then we literally are like, oh my God, nobody applies for these jobs and we have massive turnover. And any HR, it just, I’m like, well, every HR director in the world would say simplify the spec and pay more money.So at Alpha we do both. So the key is those first two, right? You don’t need to know seventh grade science, right? And the 10,000 learning science papers how to teach it, because the AI does that, right? But you have to be the world’s best at connecting and motivating students, right? And we also have a dean of parents role to take the parent side off. Because I actually was told this, this teacher is really great with kids, but they can’t handle the parents. So don’t promote and vice versa. Where, oh, not as good with kids, but the parents love or so promote. And I’m like, we will never have that at our school, right? I want you to be great with 8 year olds and I don’t care how you are with 30. And so we simplified the spec. We pay more money.So at every Alpha, the minimum is a hundred thousand. In cities like New York, it’s like 140, 150. I’d have to check to go get great talent. Right, Go get the talent. And then second, when you, when you talk about it and you know the role of teacher, if you talk to, you know, Wendy at Teach for America, right? Or whatever, you know, and you say things like teachers became teachers to transform kids’ lives. Not grade, seventh grade science quizzes, right? Every parent, every adult had one or two teachers who transformed your life. It wasn’t because they marked your paper up, it was because they saw you, right. They connected and they motivated you to greatness that you were able to.They set high standards that you wanted to live up to. And that’s what, that’s why teachers are teachers, right. And that is why everybody who comes to Alpha, we had 80,000 people apply for our jobs. Right. Last year because they, that’s what they want to do all day. Because that’s what they do do at Alpha. Right? Because they, during the two hours they’re taking the kids out for a one on one and they’re like, hey, how was the soccer tournament this weekend? Oh did you lose?Okay, let’s talk about. Right. And they’re connecting with the kids. They spend all their time on personal connection and can take those first two roles outside of it. Right. And take those off. And so we believe when you talk about it, it’s, they’re running the afternoon life skill workshops and things like that. I do believe the role of teachers will transform right.Going forward in our world. It does. But it is a better role for the teachers. That it’s scary like any transformation is. But if you talk to all our ex teachers, they’re all coming here because they love the new role. And that actually extends to the university where we’ve been starting. The average researcher at university doesn’t want to teach his hundred series classes. That’s not what they’re there for.Rags GuptaLet’s go to Stephanie.Stephanie MinyardiHi, Stephanie Minyardi. I’m a school committee member in Winchester and I was curious how you determine your curriculum. Now something like early elementary literacy can be controversial. But even things like current events, how do you talk about current conflicts in the Middle East, how do you have that conversation in those two hour sessions? And you can even expand it to talk about history, how do we talk about the Holocaust, how do we talk about slavery, how do you determine that conversation in those two hours?Joe LiemandtYeah. No, okay. And I’ll take it broadly. So when you talk about how we decide all the fights that are, I’ll call them pedagogical, direct instruction versus inquiry, learning, all this literally, we just follow all the data. So we have the only closed loop right.System in education where our learning scientists take it, put it in, create the lessons, it goes to the kids. Right. We measure how long it took them to get through it. Were they 90% first time right? Then they got, what did they score, how are their standardized tests? And then we improve it. Right. And that just runs all the time. So we can tell you we have data like let’s talk about memorizing multiplication tables and fluency as an example.Lots of schools have dumped it and said, we don’t want that. Right. It’s not worth it. Every third grader at Alpha knows it takes about 11 hours to do fact fluency. They’re third grade. Takes about 11 hours. They also know that if they have fact fluency, fourth grade math takes 30 hours. That’s it, Right. To get to mastery.And if they don’t have fact fluency, it takes 62 hours. Even a third grader knows, I’m going to do fact fluency. Right. So we just take all the data and present it. In general, inquiry learning is about five times slower than direct instruction. So the kids, if you’re giving them the time back. Right. Inquiry learning a lot is trying to solve the motivation problem.If you actually just have them do the direct instruction, the kids are like, I’ll take that trade. Right. To do it quickly so I can actually go to the workshop I really want and sort of this half and half one. It’s all that just, it’s purely database that you present with the kids. We have a video game that teaches them fact fluency that takes instead of 10 minutes a day, it takes 20 minutes. And those they have to do at home since it’s more than the 10 minute block.And kids totally do that because it’s a multi user game and competition. About 30% of kids love that. If it goes to 30 minutes though, they’re like, oh no, no, that’s too long. There’s all of that measurement on that. The second one you had though is really an important topic, which is what’s going into my kid’s brain. So the moment you decide I’m going to have an AI tutor educate my kid, the next question is who’s in charge of it? Who’s in charge of that AI tutor and what is going into my kid’s brain? And so there’s a couple different answers to this. One is that every Alpha parent gets to see every lesson that their kid sees.And so if you know and we use core knowledge. And so if you’re looking at what we’re teaching, it’s going to be a standard common core curriculum. With core knowledge overlay. Right. Of knowledge building. But every parent, right? Every parent can look at every Alpha read article that’s done, et cetera.And back to your point of it’s 10% they fight about like in Texas there’s this big curriculum thing where they’re changing it. It’s like 3% of the lessons. And so we solve the problem just by letting parents go take them out. We’ll put parents in charge. And I’m like, I’m not here to arbitrate it. And so parents actually get to decide. Now I still have to get the kid to the mastery standard and be able to pass all the tests.Right. That’s my responsibility. But parents get that control. I believe that’s a broader question. Right. We’re talking to sovereigns, right? Yeah. And every sovereign and every parent is going to have to answer the question: what are the laws? Customs.Values and curriculum I want to put in my kids’ heads. So we’re actually developing an EDU LLM that every parent and well, maybe not parent, but every sovereign, right or every state who has their own version is going to be able to train it for the curriculum they want. Right. Laws, custom values, curriculum. And so as soon as the next question you have, as soon as AI tutors are doing it is what is that? And in our answer it’s right now, sort of parents can block it. The year from now the answer will be here’s an LLM you can decide.Unknown Question Askerin the way that you present. It seems to exist a strict separation between the academic component in the morning and the workshops in the afternoon. The way that I’m reading it, it must be a connection. Right. I would expect that in the afternoon they are also building in what they are working on and perhaps even discussing what they were learning in the morning. So that’s part of my question. How do you link both and how do you leverage that? The other question is about the resilience. So I find myself having my daughter with the expectation that everything has to be fun and life is not always fun.So how do we teach that? The contents are not tailored to them and they have to do them anyway and that’s okay, that’s part of the process.Teaching grit beyond academicsJoe LiemandtSo the second one, which is grit and hard work. Right. And high standards and you know, at our school, the question you’re asking in our school, how it gets answered by a guide, is the best way to teach hard work and grit to the student via calculus or via the tough mudder. Right. And there’s a ton of after school, a ton of these afternoon workshops where it’s a better place to teach those skills because if the kid really doesn’t like the subject, right, there’s an eventual point where you run out of gas that you can keep pushing on, that you can get a little bit, but you can’t get long term. And so on that one, the answer is, I believe if you meet Alpha students, it is their resiliency and self confidence and grit that they have. But it’s developed as much through these workshops and afternoon as it would be traditionally in academics. The second one you have, which is I want the workshops and the academics combined, that’s generally a normal standard school view.The problem is our workshops aren’t going to be academically based. I’m running a tough mudder this afternoon, right? It’s not discussing what was the world history discussion. Now there are a set of seminars you’re going to have, but it’s going to be a minority of the afternoon workshops, which is I want to get together and we’re going to discuss this book in a Socratic debate. That’s going to happen, but that’s a minority of the time because they’re going to be saying, well, I’m giving a TED Talk, right? I’m working on my TED talk, right? I’m working on, you know, my public speaking, I’m doing my entrepreneurship, we launched a food truck and I’m working on all the teamwork because my friends didn’t show up and I have to do this whole food truck by myself, all of those things. And so there’s not that normal connection that you would get because we’re doing a completely different non academic curriculum in the afternoon.Rags GuptaRobert?RobertIn Massachusetts, our schools are really good at academics on average, and they’re also really good at encouraging high anxiety in our students, especially at the high school level. I’ve heard anecdotally that Alpha is really quite effective at mitigating that, but I’d love you to expand on it.Joe LiemandtSure. Anxiety comes from lots of different things, right? But kids working on stuff they love, that’s really hard, isn’t anxiety producing because they love it, right? And so, you know, in middle school we start with putting kids into Dream Launcher. This gets into like, everybody changes, right? You know, Dream Launcher is figure out what do you love, right? Go do a vision board, right? So let’s talk about anxiety. The average middle schooler transfers into Alpha, right? A high percentage of them are going to be consumers, as we call them, right? They’re TikTok scrollers, they’re for Fortnite players. They’re caught in the dopamine loop. Right.And you take those people and then you say, do well academically or you’re doomed. High anxiety, mental health problems, very bad. Right. Instead, our job. And if you take those same kids, though, and say, who do you want to be or actually who you are? Because they all think they’re awesome. Right. Go do your vision board.Right. Go do your Japanese ikigai. Right. For those of, you know. Right. And those are. Every kid comes in and those are awesome of who they want to be. Right.And whether it’s at the sports academy where they’re like, I’m going to play in the NBA or at Alpha, they’re like, I’m going to go launch my Broadway musical. Whatever it is, it’s great. Then we make them do their 168 hour project, which is track every hour of the week. You are what you do. And that’s where the realization comes in. They’re like, well, Mr. Liemandt, I guess I’m going to be the world’s best TikTok school. And the disappointment in their voice because the disconnect between.Those two things are so large of who they want to be, but how they spend their time. And then the Dream Launcher project is. That is our job is then to make sure we have afternoon workshops where they’re figuring out. How they can bridge that.But you do it by engaging them. These kids are stuck on Fortnite and TikTok because we don’t give them something better. Right? Back to hard things. You got to go give them a project with their friends that’s hard that they want to engage in and that it’s a lot easier than you expect, right? I’d love to say, like, oh, my God, this is the most complicated thing in the world. Our afternoon workshops aren’t that complicated to get them to do it. And so that’s how.And then high school is the same thing. Every kid works on an Alpha X project. Right. And when your academics only takes two hours a day. That anxiety goes away because you’re not spending 10 hours a day. Kids, when you don’t give their time back, they’re like, I want to do all these things in high school. I have no time because if I don’t study for my AP, I’m screwed.Right? Because it’s zillions of hours. And you’re like, you know, actually, I do have to adjust. We do have a third hour if you want to be on 1550 SAT. It’s three hours, right, instead of two, but literally two or three hours a day. The kids are working on most of their high school career stuff they love. And that’s how you solve that problem is we put, we create all these mental health issues and anxiety for kids by filling their day end to end right where they have no time to do anything and then have them wake up and say, but I can’t do what I want. And.That sucks.Rags GuptaWe have time for one last burning question. Who has it? Burning question. We’ll go to you.Joe LiemandtYeah, lady over there.Rebecca WolfA lot of pressure on burning questions. Hi, I’m Rebecca Wolf. I recently published a paper with the Harvard Institute institution at Stanford on how we scale bottom up innovation in education. And the paper is literally called We can’t get there from here. So I can clearly see, Joe, your vision for how we get there from here. Michael, I’m curious as you listen to Joe, because you’ve been in as many states as I have over the years. We have been fellow travelers trying to build personalized competency based systems all over this country. We have not gotten nearly as far as we thought we would.So as you listen to what Joe is proposing for scale, are there hopes for states, are there hopes for the system? Or do we all just need to send our kids to Alpha schools?Michael HornI guess what I would say, I think you’ve heard optimism in me that this is the time of entrepreneurship that I haven’t seen before. And I go back to that and I would say very clearly, look, we living in Massachusetts are not having that influx at the moment. I am hopeful the more we see models like Alpha come into the scene, there’s a few others that are opening up. There are a few others that are already opened up that will start to change mindset and push this conversation forward. I don’t want to get too political, but I’m hopeful that, you know, Joe talked about the choice opt in that states they’ll have a choice. I’m hoping we’ll opt into that, because I’m hoping we won’t leave those dollars on the table for those that need it the most so that they can have some agency in those families to make those same choices that frankly, I already made for my kids. Right. And I’ve opted out of the public school system already with my kids because I believe these principles so clearly.So I say that in the sense of like there’s some hard choices, I think, in Massachusetts. And the more we see this burgeoning supply meeting this demand that I believe is here, I think we’re going to start to see some changes. And so I feel more hopeful today than I have.Youth entrepreneurship and parental supportJoe LiemandtYeah. And back to this, his point about entrepreneurship, I completely agree with that, which is, I can’t tell you how many entrepreneurs I now talk to who are like, oh, I’m going to build Alpha school for this, right. How do I get access to time back so we can go build it for this? And I believe that’s absolutely going to happen. And back to time back being available. I have a 17 year old in my high school who’s building his own time back that he’s going to be releasing. You can follow him on Twitter, with AI he spends his afternoons, he’s like, I’m going to be the best ed tech entrepreneur in the world to be able to do this. I believe entrepreneurship is that way. And the second part is, I believe the strongest force in the world is parents who care for their kids and it’s going to blow through all the problems.And, and I think a lot of the issues of reform before were there weren’t 10x better products. You weren’t sitting there and saying, you know, you could go to a private school, but it’s basically the same as a public school, except a little bit better, a little net, right. On these things. There wasn’t this two hours a day, right. I mean, it’s just, it’s a fundamental switch. Right. And they get to do this all day. And so I believe for the first time, right, this is enabling such a different product that the parents are going to be like, I have to have it.Michael HornJust to jump on that for two seconds more. Because I think our criteria often was, you heard parents say, oh, that’s the best school. I heard, therefore we’ll go there. I was talking to again, my students were doing a project this morning and they were describing a particular school in the Bay Area. I won’t name the name at the moment, but where families have opted in, quote unquote, because it’s the best, but they hadn’t thought about what that model actually going to look like? Is this the right motivational match, etc, etc. And so what is still a very good school is drawing in families and students for whom, like, I’m not sure. Right. And so I think the other piece of this is we’re going to become more demanding.We already are, I think, but we’re going to have more language to help us choose more. And I think tools are going to emerge that help us make those choices more intelligently as well.Rags GuptaAwesome. We’re at time, so we’ll wrap. I think we can still be around for the speakers will be around for questions for a few minutes longer. But thank you to the speakers and thanks to you all. And thank you, WHOOP. And the Ma AI Coalition for hosting. Thank you all. Have a great evening.The Future of Education is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit michaelbhorn.substack.com/subscribe

May 11, 202635 min

Changing of the Guard at Virtual School Funded Only When Students Demonstrate Mastery

Steve Kossakoski, outgoing co-founder of the Virtual Learning Academy Charter School (VLACS), and Natalie Berger, its new CEO, joined me to talk about lessons learned over VLACS’s history and its evolution as a leader in virtual education, particularly in a world of AI. VLACS has one of the most important funding models in education; instead of receiving money based on enrollment or attendance, it only receives funds when students demonstrate mastery.Natalie also shared her vision for expanding career-connected and project-based learning, as well as deepening partnerships with New Hampshire universities to offer more dual-credit opportunities for students.Michael HornWelcome to the Future of Education. I’m Michael Horn. You’re joining the show where we’re dedicated to creating a world in which all individuals can build their passions, fulfill their potential, and live lives of purpose. And to help us think through that today, I’m really excited because it’s one of the schools that I’ve taken a lot of inspiration from over many, many years, written a lot about it, lauded it many times, but it’s at an interesting inflection point. It’s the Virtual Learning Academy Charter School, VLACs as it’s commonly known out of New Hampshire. And Steve Kosikowski, who of course is the co-founder and has led it for many, many years, stepping down as the leader. And Natalie Berger, you’re stepping into these shoes to lead the organization as the CEO. Natalie, Steve, welcome both.I’m excited to get the update from you both and hear all the things VLACs. So thank you so much for joining me.Natalie BergerThanks for inviting us.Steve KossakoskiThanks, Michael.Starting charter schools in New HampshireMichael HornYeah, you bet. So, Steve, maybe like round us and like where the organization is today, as you like, made this decision to step into your next act that does not involve shepherding children and so forth and tell us like, you know, give us a quick arc of like, for those that haven’t followed the Virtual Learning Academy Charter School over the years founding story, where it has evolved to, who are you serving today? How does the funding model work? Some of those sort of nuts and bolts of the school.Steve KossakoskiSure, yeah. So the founding story is, I think, an interesting one. I was assistant superintendent in the Exeter, New Hampshire area and I work for a very innovative superintendent, Skip Hansen. And when the charter school laws changed in New Hampshire, he was the first superintendent to step forward and say, I think there’s a great opportunity to create charter schools that could benefit our kids. And so he thankfully allowed me to do the design work on the Great Bay Charter School, which is still operating today. And then a few years later, he asked me about the virtual side and he said, do you think we could help another group of kids through a virtual charter? And again allowed me the opportunity to do the design work on that. And so it was just that simple, you know, interaction in his office one day that led to everything.Soon thereafter, he decided to retire. And I said, well, it’d be an opportunity for me to do something different. And I stepped into the role. And the first few years were really quite interesting. There were nights when I would go home and wonder if we were going to make payroll and where the money was coming from. And we were always following the policies available at the state level. But since we were doing things in a different way, there were just questions all the time and just always thankful for the commissioner, Lionel Tracy,and always finding answers for us or knowing the right person to ask and really helping us to get off the ground.And then I think the next piece that led to our success was the people we were able to attract and hire, one of whom is here with us today, Natalie, she was in our second cohort, or first. Natalie second. Came in as a teacher and for many, many years just continued to do exemplary work and kind of rose up through the ranks. And I think one of the cool things about Natalie is if there’s a job at VLAC, she’s probably been involved either directly in it or somehow in it. So she really has just a wonderful understanding and an understanding that I don’t have because I’ve never been a teacher at VLAC. I’ve never taught a kid, and, you know, she has. So I think she brings a lot of wonderful things.Serving diverse student needsSteve KossakoskiOver the years, we have grown to a point where now we serve regularly 10 to 12,000 students on an annual basis, you know, 98% or so who are from New Hampshire, the rest are from out of state. We come close to 1000 full time students each year, K through 12, and the rest are part time. And all throughout our history, the question has been, well, who are the kids who come? And people are expecting the answer, like, you know, it’s a certain type of kid. There came a point we stopped asking the question because early on we surveyed, you know, why are you here? And what we found was it wasn’t about only kids who struggled, it wasn’t about only kids who are, you know, on the high end academically. It was just across the board, every type of student you could think of. And you can see that in our graduates. We’ve had kids whose parents have thanked us for saving their child.And there are other kids who are ready to step out and become the next president. I mean, they’re just all over the place. And we’ve continued to be able to attract just amazing, amazing folks. We have about 250 employees, although in the month that I’ve been gone, Natalie’s probably hired another cohort. And we continue to grow, which is amazing. Of course, we went through the pandemic and helped a lot of extra people. Almost overnight, our number of kids increased by 47%. But what’s, I think really interesting is we’ve never went back to the enrollment numbers that we had prior to the pandemic.We dropped, but you know,Michael HornYou had a lot of these new students.Steve KossakoskiYeah, yeah, a lot of them have stayed or more people got to know about us and came to see us. So it’s really been, for me, it was, the last 18 years have just been a highlight of, you know, I can’t think of a better way to cap off a 45 year career than to be able to experience what I experienced and the people that I got to work with. And Natalie may have another thought, but I think it’s pretty, this is pretty true that the school’s in a really good place. The enrollment numbers are still healthy. We’re not seeing 20% increases, but we are seeing regular 2, 3, 4% increases. Financially, we’re in a really good place. We have our own building now for administrative purposes and a really stable staff.So I think things are really in a good place. And I don’t mean that to sound like I did that. It’s really people like Natalie and others who did all the work to put us in that place. So if I left anything out, let me know.Michael HornBut no, no, that’s good. Well, let’s maybe start to color in the lines for people just a little bit more and then we’ll, Natalie will talk about the future. But Natalie, maybe I’ll ask you this question since you’re now leading this organization. Just paint the picture for folks like when Steve says part time students, these are people who are taking 1, 2, 3 online classes. Right. These are virtual students. But you have a very different flavor of how people do virtual learning than most of the virtual schools that are out there.It’s enabled by the policy environment, certainly in New Hampshire you have a very innovative funding model. You have a lot of choices about how people complete learning. So maybe fill in the lines of that student experience a little bit more.Natalie BergerSure, yeah. You’ve mentioned some of the really key parts there. I’ve had people say to me, I wish my state had something like this. Like when they hear about it, we, you know, have students from Massachusetts who will come and take courses with us. Because Massachusetts does have online schools, but not in the same way. Where they’re asynchronous, where they’re, they can be just taking one or two courses. In many states you have to just choose to take your entire school online. And so this idea that, you know, you can be a full time student at any school in New Hampshire and then take an additional course because perhaps your school doesn’t offer it.Certainly the ability to access a wide variety of courses is a key thing for small rural schools that can’t support having maybe just one or two students who are ready for a particular math course and they can come and take it at VLACs. And then we also, as you said that competency based funding model is key for us. The idea that we are not getting funded for kids just coming and showing up and sitting and doing nothing. They have to master their competencies, get credit for their courses and that is how the state is paying us. And that’s a really innovative piece that you know, we can give credit to Steve and others. But to really that idea that students are progressing and as they are progressing, that is how we are getting funded. We aren’t.And that really helps us make sure that we have that idea of we really need to support students to get to fulfill their own version of success which you know, they might come and do one course, they might come and take a ton of them, but we’re there to help personalize and to support them in that so that it’s going to help us be successful since that’s how we are funded. But it’s really for them to be able to, you know, take their own path and you know, figure out what they want to do and, and how to proceed. And it’s just really about the opportunities we’re able to provide that I think is just, is unique and how we’re able to do that.Michael HornYeah, and it’s interesting, right? I just to make sure folks are following like literally it’s mastery is the new seat time in your model. Right. Like if I make instead of average daily attendance, you’re looking at basically average daily progress. If I make 10% and I exhibit mastery of the competencies in a course, you get 10% of the funding. I’d love to hear, Steve, when you were still leading, you put in sort of multiple versions, right of courses and multiple ways of showing mastery. I don’t know who’s best to talk through this, but just talk about how you think about the assessment of mastery and students exhibiting and showing that, showing what they’ve learned in effect.Steve KossakoskiWell, there are traditional online courses, if you will. We also have something called projects and then we have even rebranded what we used to call experiences to custom projects. And so what that allows kids to do is to move from, to pick the place where they feel comfortable. So if they want to take algebra 1 as a traditional course, they can, they could take it as a project, which in our world we put them in a scenario where we may say, you’re going to be starting a business and you need to do certain things from an accounting perspective and you’re going to produce a budget or something. And then there’s some competency that is supported by that. But then also that kid could come to us and say, well, I have an idea for working with an engineer and I’m wondering if there are some math competencies that I might be able to master as part of this. And we would work with them to do that. And we have a growing number of instructors who are really becoming very knowledgeable and very skilled at those alternative assessments.Whereas when we first started it was a smaller group. And that group is continuing to grow. But it really allows kids to approach things from many different ways. And what we’ve basically done is standardized our competencies and built rubrics around our competencies and done professional development around, you know, how to assess and so forth. And so, yeah, it’s a very different environment. And also, I’ll go off track a little bit here. You alluded to funding and you know, and as you said, if I have 10% progress, we get 10% funded. And one of the concerns early on with that model was what do you do about the kid who is going to take more time than normal? You’re not getting paid for time.Discussing course completion timesSteve KossakoskiSo what if a kid takes a year and a half to complete a course? Well, what we found, and this is what we had hoped, was that there’s a balance because you also have the kid who completes that same course and 60 days. And over time we just, that has just really played out very well for us. So we haven’t had an issue where kids are taking too long and, and we’re losing money and not able to support. So it’s been really interesting and there’s actually, for those who might be interested in that, the document is a little bit old now, but Larry Miller did a study a number of years ago about competency based funding. And one of the interesting things he found in his analysis is that if we had been paid based on seat time, the state would have had to pay a considerable amount of additional funds to us to support that model. That there were, you know, there were savings to the state, if you will, because of the way we were doing it, which I can’t say it was necessarily our intent, but it was just interesting that that happened. And I’m not making the case that everybody should jump to our model. I’m just saying it was, you know, an interesting outcome.Michael HornThat’s super interesting. I’m curious, let’s actually stay on this assessment strand because I think sort of two questions probably come up for folks right when they’re listening. One is, how does the state trust you all with assessing? Like, isn’t. Don’t you just want to pass kids and so that you can get the funding? And then the second, which I think is extremely pertinent at the moment, is about can’t go more than five minutes without asking in education. Okay, impact of AI. And you know, I hear it a lot from our higher ed friends, which is AI is taking the online courses for the students. Like I don’t, you know, they’re using AI to do the work, cognitive offloading, et cetera. How do you all think about those two questions? You know, around the did the student actually do the work? Did they master it? And perhaps this.On the one hand, it’s a beautiful incentive. On the other, I can imagine the state being like, oh, wait a second, did they really master it? How do you show them that? Natalie, you want to take it?Discussion based assessments in educationNatalie BergerYeah, yeah. I’ll jump in with one piece and then I’ll invite Steve to jump in too. One of the pieces that’s been core to every single one of our learning experiences is a discussion based assessment at the end of every competency. So every student is meeting with their instructor for every competency and doing that discussion together. Over time, how we’ve sort of helped students prepare for that discussion based assessment has changed and I think that’s going to continue to evolve, especially as you’re saying that second question of how do we ensure that students are really doing their work? That has always been one of the pieces, one of our goals of our discussion based assessment. Because even before the current age of AI, there were plenty of opportunities for students to turn off their camera and secretly type the question in while we were. I’ve had that happen. You know, you hear the kid clicking on the other keys like what? What’s the answer to this question? So we really focused on the relationships of those instructors and those students.And I think that’s going to be ultimately the thing that is going to always be the central core part of our system is going to be that it’s a relationship, human focused relationship. And no matter what’s going to happen, we’re going to have those pieces where the instructor is going to know the student well and they’re going to have that ability to verify that it’s really them and that there’s real learning happening along with changes that we’re going to have to make with that model. But Steve, I think that you have some thoughts about the state and how they trust us probably?Steve KossakoskiWell, I think over time that people have realized that our model is one where there’s at least an equal amount of one on one time to any traditional school, if not more on the one on one side. And we have a representative sample of public school teachers across the state because a lot of our, most of our instructors are adjuncts working in traditional schools. So I think, you know, it’s not as if there’s a workforce that is totally separate and not integrated into the rest of the state that if anything untoward were happening. Right.Michael HornThey don’t have the incentive to not hide it. Yeah, yeah.Steve KossakoskiI think also the results have spoken for themselves where our test scores have been at or above state averages, you know, throughout 18 years. You know, our kids go to every college in the country and have, you know, had wonderful results. And so I think just over time we built up a lot of trust and plus more or less because of all the reports we have to do on an annual basis and so forth, that kind of an open book and you know, there’s almost no way you could hide it. Especially for 18 years, you couldn’t hide anything. So I think that trust has, has built up and, and we have so many stories of, you know, parents who, and kids who have said, wow, what an experience. And I learned so much. And you know, I think that’s really the simple answer.Michael HornWell, and just stay with it also because I remember, I think it was in your office when years ago, Steve, you told me around the discussion based assessment or the oral assessment, right. You were like, most teachers know within 30 seconds that this kid knows this competency or not. Like it’s the purest form of mastery. And we sometimes overcomplicate, if you will, this picture and like, if I’m being honest, you don’t have it yet. Like, let’s keep working on this. Right. And I think there’s a purity of that, I’d love to hear you both talk about it, but there’s a sort of a purity of that, that you all have brought back and I imagine in an age of AI is actually even more like, sort of stands apart even more so than, than all these games of monitoring or this or that, that maybe folks are trying to play right now. But I love your reflections on that.If I’m wrong in any way. Yeah.Steve KossakoskiOne of the things I always enjoyed is when teachers would say things like, I love discussion based assessments because when the kid has done their work, I’m talking about something I love, which is history. And the kid loves history too. And we’re just talking about history. And you know, that doesn’t mean every discussion is like that. There are some kids who haven’t done the work and, you know, but then it turns into a coaching session. Oh, well, you need to work on this and need to work on that. So it’s one of the things I think Natalie could tell stories about is how we have to continue to coach kids so that they don’t get really stressed out about this, that you’re not going to fail. You may be told you got to keep working, but it’s not as if, okay, I’ve listened to you for 20 minutes, you’ve got an F.We don’t fail kids. We just say, you’re not there yet and so they can come back and, and so forth.Discussing the value of DBAsNatalie BergerSo, yeah, and I was one of those instructors who would tell Steve how much I loved doing discussion based assessments. We call them DBAs for short. And as Steve said, one of the reasons is it’s a chance to talk about something that we as instructors are passionate about with students. And to be able to see a kid, you know, curious in the moment about something, it’s a really special, like a privilege, I think, for a teacher to be able to have that moment. And that’s a unique thing for us because I was a classroom teacher in a brick and mortar school and I would see those kids every day and I loved those kids. But there wasn’t ever a time when I could take 20 minutes with that one student at the end of every unit and have a one on one conversation with them to make sure that they felt like they had understood it and that they were ready to move on. And so I think that’s the reason that our instructors love those DBAs is it’s just such a unique opportunity for every single kid to have that uninterrupted time with their instructor. And so that’s going to be something that we, no matter what we change going forward, that’s going to be a key element still of what we’re doing.And I had one other piece that I can’t remember, so I’ll let you ask.Michael HornWhen we come back. Yeah, yeah, grab it when you come back. I was going to turn sort of past reflections and future directions as we start to sort of veer the corner toward the end of the conversation. And Steve, you wrote a really, I thought, prescient, moving letter series of reflections on your time at VLACs, your decision to step away now and what’s next and sort of the directions of the school, you know, what you’re both proud of, but also directions of the school. You don’t have to reiterate that. We can link to it in the show notes, people can find it on the website. But I just, as you know, you, I’d love to hear your own personal reflections. Right.Of, of the state of the school, where it’s been, where it’s going and, and some of those thoughts that occur to you now.Steve KossakoskiYeah, just incredibly proud of the work that everybody’s done. And you know, when you go through the retirement kind of cycle and people are saying, thank you, thank you, thank you. And I, I truly meant this, that whatever people are saying to me is just a reflection back on them because one person doesn’t do the work and one person doesn’t, especially in an organization of the size of VLACs. It’s really about the people and the employees and then the support we get from parents and schools throughout the state and organizations and the DOE that, you know, I hope it’s something that New Hampshire is proud of, that exists in New Hampshire. But I just think that in some respects the timing is really good. I think when I wrote to you, Michael, and said I’m stepping down and thank you for your support, I mentioned how lucky we were to have Disrupting Class come out about the time that we started because it really was a wonderful way to begin a discussion about what we were thinking about doing at the time and, you know, putting some components of it in, into effect. And I think going forward, and I’m going to step into AI here for a second, but I also want to preface this by saying I’m no longer the leader.So some of the things I may say may be very different, but some of the things I kind of worked on over my last six months was the idea that we really need to embrace AI as a teammate, not in place of any human, but as an incredible technology that can do things we couldn’t do and couldn’t use as supports for kids before. And also, as much as we may have really big concerns about AI, understand that it’s our kids world, and if what we do is push it away and don’t involve kids and using it and learning how to use it effectively and using it honestly and with integrity, then we’re doing a real disservice to the kids. And that’s what I worry about, because I, you know, I worry about the pushback all the time. At the same time, you have to acknowledge those concerns and you have to deal with them. And I think VLACs is in a transition. You know, in the transition’s always the difficult part because we still have. Even though some of these ideas are innovative, they’re older now, now that AI is here, and there’s a transition to really bring AI into it.And, you know, so, you know, other schools have issues with academic integrity and so forth, and so do we. We have to work with kids all the time. And most of the issues are about teaching the kids about the proper way of doing it instead of slapping them on the wrist and saying, don’t do it again. And that’s all you do. Again. That to me is a disservice. But this idea of a teammate, you know, so one of the things Natalie and I and Julie Reese, our director of learning, have talked about is discussion based assessments and how possibly we could bring AI into that as another discussant. And perhaps the AI brings up or poses some questions that we may not have thought of.Isn’t that a wonderful thing? And certainly by having an instructor there and a student there, if AI says something that is not factual, well, you have two people there who are going to push back, but it can take us to another level instead of thinking of it as a negative.Michael HornSuper interesting. And Natalie, I’m going to bring you in a second. But I’m reminded of, we recently interviewed Dacia Toll, who created CourseMojo in the middle school English language arts space. And it’s basically trained with amazing educators, creating lots and lots of rules and guardrails and so forth around the AI to ask the next right question constantly of kids. And that is an interesting tool to, you know, tools like that. I could imagine being really interesting with the teacher there as well. And maybe sometimes the teacher, you know, you want to help out the student. And the AI says, oh, wait a second, let’s slow down.I could imagine an interesting give and take between the two.AI and academic honestySteve KossakoskiYeah. And I think we’re hearing reports of, you know, someone saying, well, the AI took this course for the kid and so forth. Well, there have long been concerns about courses, you know, all right, so if AI wasn’t there, did I hire my older brother to take my course for me? And then if we bring it back to more traditional part, did I hire my older brother to type up my essay and then I brought it into school? I mean, those concerns have always been there and I think we’ve always known that. I think AI is going to push us to rethink some of these things. So if a course can be taken by AI, maybe the course isn’t quite what we need for the future. We need something else. And maybe we say, okay, I want you to use AI to teach you that course. And then I want you to do this other thing that is far beyond what we would have normally done in that course. And to me, that’s the exciting part.And I told Natalie, I said, boy, right at the point where this is exciting technology, I’m leaving. I feel like I should be staying.Michael HornWell, Natalie, let’s bring you in there. Like future directions. Things you’re excited about, maybe scared about, but you can take it as a choose your own adventure question. But like, you know, VLACs has such a cool legacy and set of things that it has been serving students. But where’s it, where’s it all going in your view? What are the things you’re excited about building on, introducing, changing? Yeah.Evaluating courses and student engagementNatalie BergerYeah. I think we’re right now in that sort of taking stock mode of, you know, Steve and throughout his time helped build some really amazing opportunities for students. And some of that was sort of the idea that if we build it, they will come, which they have. But there are elements, some of, I think the more, the pieces that we find more exciting and innovative like the project based courses and learning through experiences, those pieces have not necessarily had as many students engaged in those as we have with our traditional courses. And what Steve just said about, you know, maybe if we’re worried about a course being able to be taken by AI, maybe that’s not where we want to put all of our energies. I think some of our more innovative project pathways are really the places that we are hoping to draw more students into those. And so it’s kind of looking at our distribution of our offerings and figuring out, you know, how to, how to kind of direct maybe more of our students into what we think are some more of those really authentic, really exciting opportunities for students. And along with that, you know, continuing our career connected learning that we have for students, that to me feels like a place that, sure, students could use some AI to write some things.But there’s also, if they’re passionate about what, they’re there because they want to work with a mentor and they want to, you know, go to a job site and learn what it’s like to be there. That’s a really, you know, exciting place for them to be. And also we have interest based courses. Some of our most popular things these days are enrichment experiences where students are actually meeting synchronously. It’s one of our only courses that we have that are really synchronous opportunities for students. You know, they’re there to learn how to bake bread because they’re a fifth grader and they want to learn how to do that. Like those pieces are still. The human element of VLACS is alive and well in all of those courses.So that’s really exciting for us to continue as well. And then we’ve been developing partnerships with three New Hampshire universities. We have Southern New Hampshire University, UNH, and also the Community College System of New Hampshire. And we have partnerships with all of them for dual credit courses. And we’re really excited to continue developing that with them. And I think one of the things that is key for that partnership is it’s really win-win for both of us. They’re looking at how to retain students within the New Hampshire university systems and, you know, being able to have students have an inexpensive way of getting some college credits. But then they also see what it’s like to be a student in New Hampshire.And you know, with the population declining these days, I think those universities are really excited about continuing those partnerships with us as well and getting kids an idea of what it’s like to take a college level course when they’re still in high school. So those are some of the things that were, Steve’s planted all of those, those trees that we’re going to keep watering and help them grow with, he’s mentioned Julie Reese, our director of teaching and learning. She’s really taken the lead on figuring out what are we going to embrace with AI and how are we going to move forward with that. And I’m excited to see what she and her team put together as we move forward.Michael HornWell, I hadn’t thought about it. I guess a couple reflections off of that. Take it for what it’s worth. But it strikes me on the dual enrollment front, you have an advantage because I see a lot of high schools, they’re offering dual enrollment classes. And I’m putting my hands in quotes because it’s really just a high school class warmed over and with a little college curriculum sprinkled in, you’re really partnering with universities that have online courses themselves. It’s the real McCoy, if you will. And so that seems distinctive and important. The second thing that occurs to me is in this time of AI that’s changing work, I hadn’t thought about it, but you’re right.With the experiential, career connected, et cetera, opportunities you have for students, you could bring them into the ground floor of like working on these problems. The AI becomes a tool because employers are not having this question around cheating. They’re like, how do you use it to get better results? And that’s fantastic. Right? And then two things, one of two things happens. Either the student says, man, I love this. And so I really want to apply myself more and I’m not going to fake it because this might be my future job. Right. Or they conclude not for me.And what a great thing that they learned that they can cross something off the list, if you will. Right. Like both of those seem to me to be really positive outcomes. And, because you’re in a mastery based environment where there’s not failure, but just keep working at it, you take away, I think a lot of those incentives where people are like, oh my gosh, it’s midnight. I got to get this done, I got to pass. Because otherwise got turn it over to AI or Cliff Notes or whatever it used to be. It seems like those incentives are not present. And if anything they maybe move the other way Natalie, to your points,Natalie BergerI mean kids are still kids. Sure. And they’re always going to, you know, they do fall into that trap of, you know, oh my gosh, it’s due tomorrow. And we have over all these years worked with them on understanding that one of the beauty of our model is that ability to say, hold up, I’m not ready to submit this yet. And helping students identify that more than waiting for the instructors to decide what’s competency and are you ready to move on? But helping students see whether they’re really taking that control themselves. And so yes, we still have some work to do with that, but we’re excited to keep going.Michael HornWell building agency in them to recognize where they are in their own learning. So let’s just finish up with this. I’m tremendously grateful that you both jumped on to give me an update and give the audience a look into what’s coming, but also what’s been. And Steve, I’ll just say I appreciate the kind words about Disrupting Class, but you have been an inspiration. What y’all, you, Natalie and the whole team there have built for me something I talk about in all my classes. I love pulling you out as an example as I’m on the road. And so just thank you for all that you’ve done for the students that you’ve served. And Natalie, as you step in this role, you got a friend in Massachusetts who’s a big fan.So keep up the great work. I appreciate you both. And Steve, you know, don’t be a total stranger as you go off into the world of photography and exploration outside of this world.Steve KossakoskiWell, thank you very much.Natalie BergerThank you, Michael.Michael HornYeah, you bet. And for all you tuning in, you can learn more on the web, of course, about VLACs. We’ll put a link in the show notes and also put a link to Steve’s blog. And just thank you as always for tuning in. And we’ll see you next time on the Future of Education.The Future of Education is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit michaelbhorn.substack.com/subscribe

May 4, 202640 min

Anomalies Wanted: How to Do Continuous Science

Academic research is under serious fire right now. The suspects fueling a replication crisis include the peer-review system, academic journals, and the system of evaluating faculty for tenure. The questions are also not new. The challenges are structural, baked into the underlying incentives. There are no easy answers it seems to the challenges.My guest for this episode is Mathïs Fédérico, founder of the startup company Bycelium, which aims to rethink science with Bayesianism. Mathïs shared his personal journey through the traditional research pipeline and explained how the emphasis on publication count and narrative crafting distorts scientific progress. Our conversation explored Bycelium’s approach to measuring the credibility and impact of scientific hypotheses in real time by incentivizing the sharing of data and negative results and encouraging honest debate rather than just novel publications.As Mathis told me, “Science is never perfect. Science will never tell you that something is true or false. Science will just nudge the credibility of things thanks to evidence.”Will Bycellium work? It’s too early to say, but I find the ideas behind it intriguing and illuminating.Challenges in academic research trendsMichael HornAlrighty. Welcome to the Future of Education. I’m delighted because several months ago Mathïs Fédérico reached out to me somewhat on a whim, I think because he had seen something I had posted about the research challenges in academia and higher education. And my hypothesizing that actually, you know, a lot of my research and writing is about how we need to reinvent the teaching and learning model itself is broken. And I said, you know, there’s this whole other thing that’s also broken, which is the research model itself. And then since then he reached out and we’ll talk about why he did in a moment. But one of the things that’s happened since then is a lot more people are very dialed into the challenges that the research process has. We’ve had this Nature article coming out that said, you know, 3,900 studies published in 62 journals and half of them could not be reproduced.We’ve seen a lot of people realize, hey, actually a lot of the Nobel Prize winners are not coming from traditional higher education pathways. As of late. We have DeepMind, Google, pharma companies, a lot of researchers that are the most impressive breakthroughs aren’t coming from the universities we expect to produce the research. We have a lot of claims of not just reproducibility challenges or replication, but outright falsifying of research and the like. And then you have this other backdrop, which we know well, is that people, when they publish in research journals, increasingly to get published, not only do you have to have something that looks statistically interesting, you also have to have something that is unique. So by definition almost not replication. And that has caused many faculty to look at narrower and narrower and narrower questions that have less and less relevance to other people. And as a result I don’t have the stats in front of me.But very few peer reviewed journals, articles that get published are ever, ever read. Very few get more than say two or three citations ever out there. And so you have a bunch of challenges hitting all at once. And so my guest Mathïs Fédérico, he has started an entity called Biselium, which we’re going to talk more about to actually solve the root causes of this challenge. But first, Mathïs, welcome. Thanks for reaching out. I’ve been like, we had this conversation on the phone and I’ve been buzzing ever since and saying, I think we have someone who might have an answer actually. So first, welcome and thanks for being here.Mathïs FédéricoWell, thanks for having me. I’m very glad to be here, I guess. Yeah. All that you’ve said, which seems very diverse in a way, and seems like a lot of things are happening independently, but all linked to the same source, which is, we are not pushing for the right thing. The thing that academia is optimizing for is not the good objective. And so whenever you try to maximize an objective like this, well, what’s happening is you maximize the wrong thing. You have a lot of the wrong things. And for us the wrong thing is the number of publications.That’s what we maximize today. The number of publications is what we use to evaluate. It’s what we use to quantify breakthroughs, to quantify how good a researcher is. But it’s not what matters. It’s not what matters at all. What does matter though, is how much did you change the minds of others, what are the evidence that were provided and how much did you change what we think of reality, what is credible and what is not? And so that’s exactly what kind of data we want to measure now with biselium, the general idea is to say, okay, could we reimagine a system where what we measure is not publication and citations, but what’s the credibility of things, how credible are hypotheses? So if we could measure this in real time and know that, oh this, this changed my mind and like this evidence changed my mind, then you literally have the impact, the scientific impact that you had on others minds. And so it has a lot of ripple effects around this.And so that’s the main idea.Michael HornYeah, well, I want to get into all of them because. So let’s talk about your personal story before we even get into what you’ve been building and the root cause, because I think you just actually nailed it, that this emphasis on publication number for its own sake has sort of become its own ill, if you will. It’s the law of unintended consequences. Right. When you pick one metric that is not the actual metric you care about, but a proxy for it becomes a bad proxy pretty quickly, Campbell’s Law. But you had a personal set of interactions in your own educational journey that sort of laid this bare where you were doing research, as I understand it, in a lab. So maybe talk about that origin just to ground us about your own personal journey to this.Mathïs FédéricoSo my journey started as I want to pursue science. So I discovered science in higher education in France, I discovered like preparatory classes, how you can reason. So the thing that fascinated me with science is that not only you can prove others wrong, but you can prove yourself wrong with tools.Michael HornAnd that’s actually a good thing.Mathïs FédéricoYeah, yes. Because that’s how you learn, right? That’s how you progress. So I love this. And so very quickly, when I was 16, I was extremely passionate about epistemology, which is, how do you like, what’s the science of learning? What’s the science of us discovering knowledge altogether? Right. And so being into this, I continued my studies, went into engineering school at CentraleSupélec in France. But after that I reached research and my goal was like most young people that go in the system. I want to do a PhD, I want to pursue research, I want to be a researcher, I want to push the boundaries of knowledge. That’s the classical route you’re told is the good route to do science. Right.But then when I tried to do research at some point I actually had the advice being given to me that in order to have a scientific career, I had to spend less time on my experiments so I could write. And I should spend time on writing a nice story about it so I could get published in high chair journals so I could get cited because this is how you make a scientific career. And I refused it. I refused it because for me this was not a good way to do science. So I looked for other ways. And so this led me to entrepreneurship, this led me to other paths, even like research and development in industry, hoping that it would be different, but it’s not.Michael HornYeah. And I want to, I want to come there in a second because there’s something else when we talked that you said was, if I’m remembering correctly, which was not only the focus on crafting the narrative, right. Sell it in essence, but you actually were very interested in like, how do I make my data vary. So others can understand it and others can look at it and really present it neatly. And like you were very obsessed with that and they said, why are you doing that? Stop doing that. Say a little bit more about that. Yeah.Mathïs FédéricoIt’s not just making it understandable. So I guess I was leaning into software engineering a bit already at the time. And I just wanted to make my code to make my experiment very reusable. I wanted what I was doing to be packaged in a way that anyone could build on top of it very quickly. So not only they could understand it, but they could tinker around with it and they could build on top of it. So that was one of my main interests. And so what people told me, as you said, is stop spending time on doing that because you don’t really care, what matters is that you have the paper, you ship the code with it, but people that will build on top, that’s a problem. Right.And so this was crazy to me that you have to optimize for this short term paper publication instead of the long term science for it. That’s obviously that target for me. But somehow this is how the system works and this is what the system pushes you to do.Michael HornRight, and so let’s dig in then. So then you said you started to look toward entrepreneurship. You sort of rejected this system. Tell us about your pathway then, because it starts to wind into Bycelium, but maybe before that, like what are the root causes you discovered that are distorting this system where someone would say to you, ah, you know, the data, whatever, making it accessible and whatever, like, you know, just focus on selling it. We just need you to get published regardless of the truth underlying it, regardless of how much we-Mathïs FédéricoI will make the argument against it. Yeah, I would make the argument against the fact that no, no one will push you to ignore the truth. That’s not the case. Right. It’s more subtle than this. It’s really more subtle and that’s why it would be much more visible if it was as bland as this and people just pushing you not to.Michael HornSo then we’d all see it and do something about it.Mathïs FédéricoExactly. So it’s more subtle than this. Right. It’s a few things here and there that tell you, oh, well, you know, spend less time on this, spend more time on this. It’s like this small orientation and these small pushes that you have in the direction of writing and being a good writer of science and being able to tell this nice story about the ideas and basically trying to convince the reviewers more than trying to convince yourself at some point. And so that’s, I think, what I didn’t like at all within that system. And that triggered some alarms in my instinct that was telling me, well, I don’t want to be part of that system because of those small signals that were accumulating. So it’s much more subtle than someone telling you you should lie.That never happens. It’s really more, there’s the ground coming up and we have to have released some papers, we have to have done some public. So let’s rush for the deadline, let’s publish. Oh, we have the conference deadline coming up, so let’s get some results quickly before the conference so we can publish something. It’s more like those kinds of things which are not bad and wrong in a way it doesn’t seem like it, but it accumulates. And at the end of the day you’re not happy about what you’ve published.And so I think that’s one of the most important signals that we have is, that imagine for authors of books, actual books, and you’re one yourself, right?Michael HornYeah. For better or worse.Mathïs FédéricoSo imagine that we would force you to publish fast and so you wouldn’t be proud. So as much that you wouldn’t be proud of the thing that you publish when you do, because they have been rushed and they have been pushed because they needed to be there. And there is studies that shows that it’s very little scientists that actually are proud of the thing that they have published. So it could be also that maybe we want to publish the perfect thing and so on. And that’s also a bad thing. And so that’s why I’m arguing against publication oriented science altogether, because I think it’s a very bad practice. Science is not and should not be about publication at all. Publication is something that happens always, all the time.We are in the 21st century. We are not writing things in journal and communicating by letters anymore. The information is everywhere and we should share it as much as it’s produced. For me, the freedom of science that we could have back is that you’re just doing things, you’re doing your experiments and you’re publishing as they go, as they are done. Because you don’t need to have the approval of people to see that something is relevant or not. It comes afterwards anyway.For me, the problem that we have with the current scientific system is that we mixed publication and evaluation. They are not the same thing at all. And they should not be mixed. Evaluation, which is how much impact will have, is it true or does it hold or does it not hold? That’s something that evaluates over time after it has been shared. Because as you mentioned, it needs replication, it needs to be checked in other contexts, it needs all of this. And if you don’t have this, you don’t have this before publication. So when do we have it right? So how could you try to do this filter before publication? For me, it makes no sense. And so it’s not necessary and it’s not good to have this filter of before we publish.We should try to make sure it’s perfect or it’s good. Science is never perfect. Science will never tell you that something is true or false. Science will just nudge the credibility of things thanks to evidence. Evidence will always nudge and nudge the credibility until the credibility is so far on one side or another that it’s nearly certain. But it’s never completely certain. Because if it were completely certain, it also would mean that any data that you would gain in the future would never change your mind, which is weird. That’s not really a very scientific mindset to have a mindset where anything in the future would not change your mind.So, yeah, I guess that’s what.Michael HornThat’s an important insight, right, that you just landed on, which is my understanding and you can correct me, but is that sometimes people will exclude certain data points because it does not contribute to the narrative or it looks like unclean data or things of that nature.Building a new research systemMichael HornRight as opposed to saying, wow, that’s an anomaly. I don’t know how to explain it. Let me just sort of be honest with that and then let’s see what that means in terms of where the preponderance of evidence falls. Or maybe there’s a different circumstance and under one this is true, and under another it’s not. Who knows? Let’s try to work this through. But I guess a lot of that thinking though is still under the notion of publication is the referee, if you will. Right. And you’re now creating Bycelium to say, actually there’s a different system altogether where other scientists can look at people’s research to sort of say, hey, do we believe this hypothesis? Do we not? Where’s the preponderance of evidence and belief at any given point? Talk about what you’re building.Mathïs FédéricoSo it’s not just me, to be clear. It’s actually an ecosystem that’s starting to be built. So not my part and my job within that ecosystem is exactly the bit that you mentioned, which is for me, it’s about this idea of hypothesis credibility and attributing the evidence, attributing the change of credibility to some evidence. That’s the part I want to contribute with Bycelium. But that’s not like the only. We are not the only actors, actually. There is the Open Exchange Architecture, the Continuous Science Foundation that are like making things that are. On this idea of continuous science, we should publish things as we go.And there are a lot of institutes that are existing. There is the Astera Institute, for example, in Arcadia Science. There is a lot of people that are trying to do other ways of doing science where there is a lot of more transparency and honesty and openness from the get go. So it’s not publication oriented. Publications are always happening in real time as you do experiments and you just share everything that you do when you do it. And afterwards you can look back and try to do a summary, try to do this kind of summary of concise journal, journal and concise bits of information where you summarize everything that has happened. But when you do the thing, you publish it on the go. And on the go, those little anomalies, sometimes they accumulate and they actually shine light on something deeper that has happened a lot already in history.Those things we were considering anomalies became entire different fields. That’s the case of quantum physics. Quantum physics in the early of the 19th century was, you know, it was just when Planck was trying to work. I think there is this anecdote of his professor telling him that there’s nothing left to do in physics so he should choose another field. Right? Because there’s nothing to discover in physics. Right. And so he leaned into like a, Planck leaned into the Wien’s constant of like the black body radiations, right. And so these laws that were here and that has some discrete jumps. And so this is the, the thing that was the entrance and this little anomaly of this little weird data point and weird jumps are the thing that led afterwards to quantum physics.Right. And so we have had anomalies like this that accumulate into very important things. So that’s exactly your point. The fact that us wanting to tell a perfect and nice narrative to make believe for the reviewers is, I think, detrimental to actual science and honesty and transparency about what’s happening and why, and also to the reviewers and also to everything. Because if you’re optimizing not for publication and the acceptance by others, but you’re optimizing instead for the long term impact, which is what we should do long term, it will change the mind of others on those subjects. Then it changes everything. So that’s exactly what we’re trying to orient with Bycelium. But Bycelium is really a simple idea actually, right.Scoring and incentivizing contributionsMathïs FédéricoIt’s really just let’s measure something that we don’t. So it’s just instead of doing this whole review process and the citations and using all of that, let’s just use instead, I changed my mind because of X. And so the question of course lies on if you have this data, how do you derive a score out of it? How do you score people depending on the contributions that they have made? And so how do you score them in a way that you drive the right incentives for them? So how can you establish a game if you want, in a way that maximizing the score of that game. So maximizing prestige if you want, right would lead you to do science, would lead you to be honest about the credibility of hypotheses that you’re putting on the like. So it’s very similar to predictability prediction markets in a way. Right.Where if you have a prediction market, your internal belief is the best action that you can do on a prediction market. And so we kind of want to do exactly the same kind of mechanisms. Except unlike prediction markets, where you’re trying to predict an event so there will be a resolution at some point that tells you, oh, well, this was the truth. Right. For science, not really the same. It’s not like someone will tell you at some point, oh, the hypothesis was correct. No, nobody would know.Michael HornAn election doesn’t. Right. So just to make it clear to the audience, right. In a prediction market, there’s a game, there’s election, there’s some sort of thing, we all had made bets on it and now it’s proved true or false relative to how we bet. Science, this prediction market, if you will, will actually be ongoing for any item or piece of scientific question that we’re sort of, or hypothesis maybe is the better way to say about it that we’re, that we’re looking into. Is that the right way to think about it?Mathïs FédéricoExactly. So it’s the idea that you have this never ending update of what do humanity think is credible? And so if you provide evidence that changes what humanity thinks is credible on how reality works, you’ve done science. That’s as simple as this, right. And so this is the simple equation. We’re trying to put the infrastructure, the platform and everything around and the framework and everything around for it. And we are trying to integrate, as I mentioned, through this new ecosystem of how to do this continuous science and how to do the science in this more transparent and better way and more, without this drawback of having journals and needing reviewers before because it seems weird, but for, for people, it seems that if two people have said like two reviewers have accepted a paper, that’s, it becomes science, you know, because before that it was not science and because it’s accepted by two people now it’s science.Michael HornA silly low threshold there, if you will.Mathïs FédéricoYes, it’s critical. And so I don’t think it’s a good truth now.A walk-through example of Bycelium’s systemMichael HornYeah, yeah. So, let’s dig in. Like take us through a micro example, right? Say Planck’s constant or Heisenberg or someone comes in today right. We don’t know, we, we don’t have the, that, you know, that they, that we now accumulated around these questions. How would this play out? Right, in Bycelium, what would. They would put forth a hypothesis, they would back it up with data. People would start to make bets of some sort, I guess, of whether they thought this made sense or not, or what would this actually look like on a micro example.Mathïs FédéricoYeah. So let’s take an example like this. Do you want a concrete scientific example or do you.Michael HornSure, you get to choose. You get to choose.Mathïs FédéricoI guess let’s take the example of the Aharonov–Bohm hypothesis. It’s a very nice hypothesis in physics because it has spanned a lot of back and forth of people changing their mind over 30 years. So that’s why I like it. So let’s imagine that you’re Bohm or Aharonov at that time initially. So before the data, before the experiment, and you’re having this idea that actually when I’m looking at Schrodinger’s equation, so on the hypothesis itself, what it is, is to say that potentials can act on matter and can act on particles and not just fields, because usually in physics only forces can act on things. Only forces will change the behaviors of matter because you have to have a force somewhere. So it might be electromagnetic force, it might be gravity as a force, but there needs to be a field that contains that force. Right? And so what this hypothesis was that actually not always there is space, there is cases where just the potential can change the gravity.So imagine, like if you take the physical analogy for this, imagine that if you were to be higher on top of a mountain, right, Just because you had a higher potential, then you would change, something would change in the way you fall because you’re higher. And so that’s something that’s very weird and very surprising in physics. And so everyone was against this when the hypothesis was of course initially published, right? So how it would play out in Bycelium would be that Aharonov and Bohm could open the hypothesis, which is an absurd hypothesis for most, and bet for it, right. And have this position where they say, actually we think it’s pretty credible they might not be like 100% certain. So they don’t, you can’t anyway say on Bycelium that you are 100% certain or 100 or 0%.Michael HornBut they put a percent confidence essentially with their claim, if you will.Mathïs FédéricoThey might even be a conservative themselves and say, oh, maybe there’s like 60% chance or something. Like that it is, or maybe even 20% chance. Right. Maybe they say that there’s 20% chance that this is actually,Michael HornI think we found some evidence that suggests this could be so we’re going to put forth the claim with our level of confidence against it.Mathïs FédéricoOkay? Exactly. And so they do that, which is we could be just, instead of being negligible, like 0.1% now it becomes like 1% or 2%. Right. So that could already be more than most scientists. So they do this, they do that bet if you want, and then they release evidence. And so that evidence might change the mind of others. So the others would initially bet, like in the negligible, like below 1%, below 0.1% Probability that this is true. And then maybe some would change their minds.For example, Richard Feynman changed his mind very quickly when there was the first experimental experiments around it. Although there were imperfections in the system. Richard Feynman looked at the equation and said, at first it looks horrendous, but then it looks obvious that this is the case. And so he changed his mind completely. And he actually started to teach this at that time. And at the same time you had people that were completely against this and were saying, ah, but the experiments are flawed because there is some leakage of field. And so there is actually some existing field that exists. And so we would.Michael HornSo it doesn’t in fact change the principle.Mathïs FédéricoYes, exactly. So it is evidence, but it’s not enough evidence. And so there are people that completely try to gather evidence to go against this. And so, you know, there was this battle, and so you could see on Bycelium, this battle, because people would change their mind and update their position depending on, oh, actually, this new thing that came out changed my mind. No, I’m thinking more this. Oh, no, I’m thinking, I’m thinking a bit more this. And you do as such as more as you, you gather evidence.And the more you have evidence and the more you would gather while you would converge to the truth is what we expect of science. Right.Michael HornYou’re essentially incentivizing others then to do experiments, to replicate, to seek. Because they can change people’s mind as well.Mathïs FédéricoExactly.Michael HornLet me, let me ask this question. What’s the trigger that gets me to care about the question in the first place or to participate and say, I actually, you know, you put forth this crazy idea that I’d never thought about before because it seems so crazy now I’m looking, why do I even pay adherence to it and participate?Mathïs FédéricoI think that’s a very good question. I think the question of what makes an hypothesis relevant is actually a good question already today. What makes an hypothesis relevant for someone to explore it in the first place? And it’s very hard to know and to pinpoint exactly what would drive people. The easy answer to this. Let me start by this, probably, the easy answer to this. This is just because you are a domain expert and you want to prove that you are an expert in a domain. Whenever there is a hypothesis that pops in your domain, you try to gain prestige because if you’re right on that hypothesis, then you would get prestige on it.So that’s the game, mechanical explanation.Michael HornSo in essence, I can actually get credit not just for, quote unquote, doing the experiment or presenting the data, but actually arbitrating it or weighing in on the discussion in some sense. So universities presumably could actually give credit for me being someone that is digging in on these important hypotheses.Understanding foresight and hypothesesMathïs FédéricoOkay, yeah, because you were right on how people were going to change their minds later on. And so you had like, you were right before the others, these kinds of things. So you had this good foresight on your own domain. So within a hypothesis of your domain, you’ve been able to foresight what was going to be the credibility of the hypothesis in the future. And so that’s kind of one of the easy incentives that you would have for an hypothesis. But yeah, as I mentioned, there is also a deeper question on what makes a good hypothesis. And actually there is a very nice suggestion of an economist that thought a lot about academia and how to change this, which is Robin Hanson. And he thought about this idea that I think is very relevant to the question here, which is we don’t know now what hypotheses are relevant.Right. But we will know in 50 years or we will know in 100 years. Right. We will know in the future what were relevant hypotheses or not, right?So what we could do is we could have a prediction market basically, or a future market more generally that will make us bet on what are the importance of those hypotheses. And so it would be our best estimations of that future, knowing that in 50 years we will ask some historians or scientists to look back and say what were important hypotheses. And so you could try to have this measure of the importance of hypothesis or even contributors themselves. Right. And try to have this like, oriented towards the future incentives system of incentives as well. So this is exactly the kind of subjects we are thinking about,Michael HornSort of two layers Then right one is, is it an interesting hypothesis? Do we want to engage into it? Because there’s lots of hypotheses that we could come up with. And then the second one, and you could imagine vectors, I guess, based on plausibility, impact, influence, et cetera. And then the second one is, is it true or false in our estimation or how likely. True or false is a little binary.Mathïs FédéricoI would prefer to say is it credible or not? Because credible or not. Because true or false is like zero or one.Michael HornThank you for correcting my language. Yeah, no, that’s better. Right, so is it credible or not as a hypothesis is another set of debates. And then I guess the next question is, right, how do we get people. You can imagine that there’s a sort of a piling in or lobbying external sort of set of incentives that could occur outside of the market.Mathïs FédéricoYes, of course.Michael HornHow do you get it to impact present day behaviors the way we want it to, not just a hundred years from now. We figured out, wow, Mathïs was really onto something and we should have recognized it because that’s the thing. It has to really supplant or disrupt the publication peer review model to really, I would imagine, take off in some ways. So how does that process work in your mind? I know you’re building it right now so you don’t have to have every answer, but I’m sort of curious your current thinking.Mathïs FédéricoSo there’s good news and bad news about this. So I’m going to start with the bad news. The bad news is that time is unforgiving and the way causality works prevents you from forecasting actually breakthroughs. By definition, breakthroughs are things you can’t see coming. So by definition you cannot say, oh, this hypothesis on frogs that no one cared about actually changed the course of humanity 100 years from now. That may be true, but you have no way to know it beforehand. Right. And so you don’t really have a way to forecast faster than the future comes.So that’s the bad part and the sad part about this. So we have to have a system that does its best at, but it will never be able to have this like actual future impact, knowing this actual future,Michael HornMaybe that’s, maybe that’s okay because you actually developed a real conversation. Right? Okay, so I’ll let you go. Go ahead, tell us.Mathïs FédéricoNo, no, go on, go on.Michael HornBut that’s, I was going to say it occurs. It occurs to me though that that’s okay because we want to have robust discussions about what are the relevant hypotheses? And you could imagine two archetypes, right? One is we have a very robust set of debates around a limited set of hypotheses that seem really important and that solves the problem of us doing arcane things that aren’t relevant. And then you could imagine that there’s a couple rogue scientists, right? Or people in their field and they’re like, I am so convinced this is important. I don’t care what you all think about, I’m going to, over, you know, the course of my 50 year career, persuade you that this is a question of real import.Right and maybe that’s actually healthy.Challenges in scientific reproducibilityMathïs FédéricoAnd I think that’s healthy. I think it’s always what science has been. I think I started by this like science. I liked science because it allowed me to prove others wrong and myself wrong, but also others wrong.And so proving others wrong is, I think, a feeling that is underrated. And it’s not a bad thing. It’s not a bad feeling to have. I think it’s actually quite healthy that you do your best to prove others wrong and you do your best to prove yourself wrong. As long as you’re not trying to prove anyone’s right, that’s fine. I would say, because otherwise you would fall into your own confirmation biases and so on, right? So as long as you’re trying to prove someone is wrong and you’re trying every way to prove that something is wrong, I think it’s a very healthy way to debate. And so that’s exactly what we’re trying to push for, which is not the case in the current journals where you can’t really say and publish negative results. Right? You can’t really say, oh, this actually doesn’t work.And so that’s exactly what we want to have with Bycelium. We want to have a place like this.Michael HornWell, that was going to be my next question. Right, so you’re now actually creating an incentive for people to publish sort of the null result, if you will.Mathïs FédéricoExactly.Michael HornOkay, say more about that because that seems like a very important piece that’s missing right now where you, you gave the example earlier. There’s the time pressure of grants, but there’s also the pressure of just like getting more grants. And I want to be in a lab seen as having lots of publications and proof points and positive results. Right. Because therefore my center is going to get more research grants than your center. And that’s its own problem. Right.Mathïs FédéricoAnd so for that you need to have high chair journals. And in order to have high chair journals, the number one criterion that they all have is novelty because they are literally journals in the sense of they want to be read by people. And so their incentive is to publish shiny good new things, not to publish the hard, oh, actually we were wrong or you know, that kind of thing.Michael HornWell, so make this. I mean, I think this is clearest in social science research, even more so than. Right. Where you know, sort of the posturing and all these things like had magical effects. And then you look into it and it’s not quite as big as you first thought, but to your point, huge publication value to be out with that first right.Mathïs FédéricoYes. And so there is that and there is a. But you’re mentioning social sciences. I would also say that even in condensed matter physics you have this problem. So it’s also a problem of hard, hard sciences too. And it’s. We are clearly not immune to that. We have the same system.It’s quite universal. So it’s maybe more visible, I think, in social sciences because it’s maybe more approachable and more reproducible in some way than the condensed matter physics experiments that you need a lot more material to be able to try it again. Right. But it exists too and there is actually a very good documentary about this if you are interested online, you can look it up on condensed matter physics and the crisis of unpredictability within condensed matter physics. There’s also those problems and it’s not immune. And math is the same. Like there is a lot of wrong math proof out there. Yeah, yeah.It’s not just social sciences, just to put the emphasis on it and. Yes. So to come back to the idea of having those incentives to push for negative results. That’s exactly what we want. We want to be able to have someone, to have a platform where if you push for negative results and you say actually this thing that people think is working, it doesn’t. And I’m going to show you, I’m going to show it. I want this to be evaluated. Right.By the system. That’s one of the main interests of the system. And so the good thing for us is that, as I mentioned, what we want to reward is people changing their mind. But either way we don’t care if they change their mind positively or negatively. Right. On a hypothesis, as long as you change the mind of others, that’s valuable. That makes success. That’s matter.Yeah, that’s what matters. Right. So for us, we don’t have a bias towards positive things. We actually have no bias in any direction as long as you do amplitude. And amplitude means you actually convinced others with strong arguments. It could be just arguments. Even a position proper like the words themselves can be considered as evidence. If they change your mind on how to view something, that’s fine.It’s a lesser proof, but it’s still a proof. It’s still proof of something that could work and something that is becoming more credible in your mind. And that’s fine. It doesn’t have to be always data based.Michael HornThat’s good, right? Because you create room for theoretical and experimental both in this system. I was going to ask a curiosity question which is, is there a danger that if people get really confident about a particular hypothesis, people don’t want to weigh in because they’re like, yeah, that’s probably true and I won’t be able to change someone’s mind. How do you get people to still put sort of their whole bets forward? Yeah, talk about.Mathïs FédéricoThe whole idea of designing the game around it. Because that’s why it’s so interesting for us to be able to design the algorithm that will link those input data to the prestige. Because now the question is, how do you make this system so that it has the properties that you just said, that the more people are agreeing on something that is wrong and the higher you will gain if you make them change their mind with strong evidence. And so it just means that you might have to look for stronger evidence than if they were uncertain. Of course. But the good thing is currently in our current first design of the system, the faster you move your mind compared to others and the best it will be for you. So if you think one evidence has came up, and it will change the mind of everyone, you are incentivized to react as fast as possible.Because if you are the first one to move, you will benefit for all the others that will move after you on your position. Right. Or towards your position.Michael HornSo you get more currency, in other words, for being okay, gotcha,Mathïs Fédéricoor more prestige or. Yeah, yeah.Michael HornAnd so that currency is the prestige. Yeah, okay.Betting against popular market beliefsMathïs FédéricoYeah, yeah. So that’s exactly the idea that if you move early and then so having a lot of people at the same place on the market or on the hypothesis more. If you have a lot of people at the same place on the hypothesis very positively and you have a strong evidence, something that you think is a strong evidence towards the negatives, then you are very incentivized to bet yourself the other way or where you think you will convince others and then reveal your evidence, and then reveal your evidence and try to convince the others your way. Because if you do so, you gain twofold once because your position will gain in value if people go towards your position. So you will have the first forecasting prestige that we talked about. Right. And on top of that, you will also have the contribution prestige because you provided evidence that changed the mind of others. So, yeah, that’s exactly the kind of.That’s exactly what we’re trying to see is how can we design a system that have those kind of properties that we want?Michael HornOkay, so let’s say there’s a hypothesis out there. There’s a fair amount of consensus. I want to jump in there and disprove it or, you know, try to convince other people, right. That they should switch their minds. I go through it and I’m like, oh, man. I think the preponderance of evidence suggests that I probably would put the bet that confirms the hypothesis. What’s the incentive for me to make that bet and sort of increase, you know, just be one more voice, if you will, on the bandwagon.Who’s agreeing now with. With the prevalent view. If. Does that make sense?Mathïs FédéricoYeah, yeah. So one of the ways we’ve done this for now, so this is a more technical question on how do we measure things?Michael HornYeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.Mathïs FédéricoOne of the ways we have done that is that whenever you arrive at a position, the people already there will gain from your arrival. So, for example, if you can precisely predict where people will enter the market, you are actually gaining on that. So it looks a lot like a Ponzi scheme, actually, but it’s a Ponzi scheme that will shift on evidence. So it uses kind of the mechanisms and incentives mechanism of a Ponzi scheme in some way, which is fun because the Ponzi scheme itself, of course, is not a good thing. But I guess if you can use a Ponzi scheme to find science and to actually change their mind, to actually change the way we view the scientific incentives, that’s fine by me.Michael HornI was going to say you’ll have made two contributions. One, to improve science and second, to show the one useful place for a Ponzi scheme. I suppose if you.Mathïs FédéricoYeah, I mean, that’s fine by me. Right. If that’s the case. And so it’s a bit like a Ponzi scheme in the sense of if you’re early on a place that you think a lot of people will agree with you, then you will gain from that.Michael HornOkay, last question as we start to wrap up here, which is talk about the entrepreneurial journey. Where are you in developing Bycelium.? I know you’ve been in some startup camps of some sort, incubators of some sort, I don’t know exactly what, but trying to get it out there. So talk to us about what that process is like. Where are you in development? When might people start being able to use this in your best imagination?Mathïs FédéricoYeah. Okay. So for now we have made a lot of focus on building initial draft and initial platform and trying to partner up with foundations because we think that’s where it will start. Like the actual prestige comes also from the money. And so people that are giving you money. So funders of science, I think, are one of the most interested in having the science for their money. Right. And so that’s where we’re starting right now.What’s next with ByceliumMathïs FédéricoAnd so our main interest for us is to be doing pilots with foundations right now. So that’s what we are doing, like small control pilots where we have those kinds of competitions where we make scientists try to maximize their prestige. And by doing so we test those incentive designs and it allows us to have those testing bears and those experiments to see do we actually drive the right incentive, do we have the good metrics? Should we tinker the system one way or another? So that’s what we are doing at our stage right now. But of course the goal is then to open up and have as much and to grow the size of each of the experiments in order to afterwards be able to open it worldwide and have something that everyone can hop in. You mentioned the startup program. Yeah, I’m part of freight right now. So actually in Helsinki we are having a three months condensed work on the subject. So this allows me to build the initial platform, all the initial technical details, the first model that we just talked about a bit, which is how exactly the system and the instances.Because before the streamers it was just an idea, now it works in practice. And so, yeah, we’re getting there. And so things are building, things are getting there. And so now what we need is mostly, well, people to join us. So smart people that are able to build fast and good and then the scientific funders that are willing to take the adventure with us and see how we can measure science and how we can measure the impact of science in a different way. And so our hope is that we will gain more and more credibility ourselves so we can probably have an hypothesis on the credibility of our own system.Michael HornWell, I was about to say. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. If the hypothesis works for it, we’ll just see what the revised hypothesis is if it doesn’t work out. But that’s the call to action is those who want to see better science and are funders or connected to funders, get in touch. How should they get in touch with you? How should they learn more about Bycelium?Mathïs FédéricoThey can go on the website. They can actually book a meeting with us on the website directly. They can contact us by contact Bycelium..com for the email. And so they can. Yeah, there are a lot of ways to contact us, mostly directly, like via website or by direct email. That’s fine.Michael HornWell, the tagline I think that you’re using is rethinking science at Bycelium.. So Mathïs Fédérico, everyone get in touch. Let’s work on this. Because this is another part of higher education, a part of our society, a part of progress that needs a desperate injection, I think of reinvention compared to where we’ve been. So I really appreciate the work you’re doing and hopefully you’ll come back, couple hypotheses down the road or as it starts to play out in the real world and give us an update. I really appreciate it.Mathïs FédéricoThank you so much for the invite, Michael. It’s been a pleasure to be here today and talk about this. We have been a lot of time spending on our computer by ourselves. It’s nice to get the word out there and to have some feedback. So if you have feedback or just if you want to support us, you can also follow us on LinkedIn and try to reach out to just say that you like the initiative. That would also make our day much happier. So, yeahMichael HornGood call to actions. Yeah. So everyone check it out. We’ll be back next time on the Future of Education.The Future of Education is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit michaelbhorn.substack.com/subscribe

April 20, 202652 min

Why Computers Went Universal—but College Didn’t

Joe Ross, president of Reach University, joined me to offer an alternative take on where the “College for All” movement went wrong. His analogy? One that will be familiar to my audience—computers. Specifically, disruptive innovation in computing. Our discussion covered the historical cycles of higher education reform, the false dichotomy between liberal arts and career-connected learning, and the emergence of disruptive models like apprenticeship degrees that integrate workplace learning, reduce costs, and challenge traditional assumptions about who higher education serves and how.Show Notes:A Student’s Guide to Apple Computer Guide for Apple Computers by Simpson’s creator, Matt GroeningMichael HornWelcome to the Future of Education. I’m Michael Horn. You’re joining the show where we’re dedicated to creating a world in which all individuals can build their passions, fulfill their potential, live lives of purpose. And to help us think through that, today, I’m delighted we’ve got one of my favorite folks in the world of education joining us. He’s none other than Joe Ross. He’s the president of Reach University. You’ve seen me appear on his podcast, and I thought it was only fair play, Joe, that we had you on mine now. So welcome.Joe RossWell, really excited to be here to see you again, Michael. How’s it going?Michael HornGood, good. I’m. I’m excited for this conversation. You and I have been riffing on a few topics together a lot, asynchronously, a little synchronously. And so we’ll let people into our headspace here. But I want to pose a question for you. It’s sort of almost a riddle, if you will.Okay, so we’ll go back to the late 1970s. I think it’s 1977 or something like that. Ken Olson, he’s the CEO of this company called Digital Equipment Corporation. They make mini computers. And he has this quote that there’s no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home. And, I’m gonna share with you what a computer to him at that time looked like. We’ll share that up there for folks, this is what a mini computer looked like.It was like a very, very large file cabinet. Yeah, not particularly mini.Joe RossYeah, right.Michael HornCost quarter million dollars. And I think the mental thing in his head, Joe, was like, hey, computers for all. Everyone’s buzzing about this in the hobbyist circles and stuff like that. Are you crazy? We’re not scaling this thing to every single home. What’s wrong with the picture I just painted?Joe RossWell, it’s funny, just a couple years later, Microsoft was getting started, and the vision that Bill Gates put out there was a computer on every desk and in every home. So there was a rising tide of the sentiment that computers actually should be for all. And it took some time. But what’s striking today right now is I think well over 95% of households do, in fact, have a computer on a desk or in their household. And that is a huge turnaround. So, yeah, famous last words.Michael HornFamous last words. Right. And so it’s the power I think you’re pointing to is disruptive innovation. Right. People didn’t think of computers at that time as these small, dimpy little things that then Microsoft comes along and, you know, it’s a couple thousand dollars, it’s a toy for hobbyists and children. It’s radically more affordable, convenient, portable over time and so forth, and it. And it literally changes the world. And then you made the observation to me that there’s been this quote unquote, College For All movement.Questioning the necessity of collegeMichael HornThere’ve been a bunch of people like me questioning that movement as of late. But you said there’s like another possibility, which is we’ve gone about College For All in sort of the most backwards way you would go about it in any other sector of the world. So, maybe talk us through your thinking there and you have like a really interesting statistic that goes, I think, 10 years or so later, 1989, if I’m remembering correctly, about how many people had computers versus college degrees. If I’m remembering.Joe RossYeah. Right. So back in 1989. And we’ll come back to why that year is interesting, but other than the fact that it’s the year I graduated from high school but in 1989, just aged myself beautifully, didn’t I? Yeah. But back in 1989, 15% of households had a computer and bachelor degree attainment was about 21%. That is flipped. So today over 95% of households have a computer, including the small computer people have in their pocket.And college degree attainment is now well behind that. It’s more than 21%. It’s grown to close to 40%. But it’s nothing like the way the computers become something for all. College degrees not for all. Yet the computer definitely is. And that’s an interesting contrast to examine.Michael HornYeah. And I guess the point. Right. Clay used to always say this, and Clay Christensen would talk about healthcare and he’d say, you know, what we’ve been trying to do is allow people to afford what is an expensive healthcare, as opposed to ask the question, how do we make healthcare itself fundamentally affordable?Joe RossExactly.Michael HornAnd we’ve done the same thing in higher ed. We’ve asked how can subsidy and so forth allow people to access what is fundamentally in most places still an expensive college degree? As opposed to how do we radically remake that degree and make it more affordable and accessible?Joe RossAnd this is what’s so ironic because in the last couple years there’s been a whole lot of dialogue around the idea that College For All is not actually such a good idea. The same folks who were proponents of College For All 10 years ago, 15 years ago, are now proverbially off the bandwagon.Michael HornYeah, I mean look, look at my co host at class disrupted, Diane Tavenner, like famously 100% of their students at Summit going to college. And she’s sort of like, I think we had the wrong goal. Like we need to be looking at economic mobility and things of that nature. Much wider prism of pathways, if you will, which may still be right, but sorry, stay with the argument.Joe RossYeah, no, absolutely right. So you have the charter movement personified by someone like Diane Tavenner. You’ve got folks like Kathleen DeLaski who herself admits that she is off the bandwagon in which is, I think aptly titled, came out last year, Who Needs College Anymore? And, what’s ironic is that there are a couple things that are ironic here, that should be noted. There’s three. First is this idea of College For All is actually a long standing aspiration probably you could argue goes back to the 1800s with the, with the launch of the, the Land Grant University. There was a little bit of a spirit of democratization in that. The reality if you look at it, is that this sort of, this concept waxes and wanes. In Kathleen DaLaski’s book, she acknowledges that her title, Who Needs College Anymore? Is a riff on a headline in Newsweek, a cover story headline in Newsweek from 1976, which was Who Needs College? And so back in 1976, you saw kind of some doubt about whether college should be for all.And that came after about a decade of College For All policy advocacy. In 1967, the New York Times published an op-ed about how the legislature in New York is trying to do College For All, for both private and public universities, making them free for everybody. And so you have this wax and wane, that’s thing one, thing two, and I’m not going to, I don’t think we’ll get into it in a big way today, but AI has I think just recently caused a lot of people to write, oh, maybe we do need more liberal arts. So I think you see, you kind of see another kind of potential driver of this waxing and waning, and we’ll see where we are five years from now. But third, to your point, Michael, one could argue that the College For All movement that we most recently came through, and I would argue that it really kind of took off around 2001 in earnest with the Jobs for the Future and Aspen Institute publishing a piece that took for granted that the purpose of high school was to send everyone for college, like literally was the first line. It’s like every high school needs to send everybody to college. Jobs for the Future does not have that position anymore. Right.But I think the ironic thing is, as you said, I don’t think we’ve really tried College forAll yet in the way that it’s most likely to succeed. And yes, the way we have seen efforts around it has been more top down, around subsidy, around encouragement, around movement building for many decades. We basically expanded access to student debt almost without any kind of underwriting, without limit at the graduate level. It’s as if back in the 1980s when Bill Gates was saying a computer on every desk and in every home, that he was seeking federal student loan subsidies to enable everyone to buy a $30,000 computer, well, he was not doing that. Right. You can’t look at any. I can’t think of any other industry where we’ve done so much. Maybe healthcare is the one.Michael HornHealthcare would be the only other one.Joe RossWould be the one example where we’ve done so much to try to make college something affordable for the masses by just stuffing the channel in terms of providing financing. Right. And it’s worked to some degree, but it’s created a lot of side effects everyone’s complaining about. So the question is, could you imagine College For All following at some point the same storyline that computers for all did?Michael HornYeah.Joe RossWhen I read Kathleen DeLaski’s book and I interviewed her for my podcast, I saw that her idea of calling the question is college relevant anymore was not a new idea. 1976 Newsweek cover, I thought, hmm, I wonder if there was a time when people were asking the same question about computers. I wonder if there was a time when people literally were publishing articles that said, who needs a computer any, you know, anymore?Michael HornSo. Right. Like the CEO of DEC.Joe RossYeah, I literally searched for that and, and I. And you know what came up was a Matt Groening cartoon from 1989, the Matt Groening advertising.Michael HornNot tracking the Simpsons founder. Yeah. Yeah.Joe RossRight. So this is the Simpsons founder before the Simpsons made him super famous. And. And in 1989, Steve Jobs evidently hired him. Was Steve Jobs still at Apple 1989? Was that the.Michael HornThat’s a good question. I guess it was around. That was around the time he prob, maybe a year or two later he got. I think 1990 was when Scully came in. So yeah, we should. We should Google that.Joe RossSo I did this search. Who needs a computer? And up comes this pamphlet by Matt Groening. With the one eared rabbit Bongo. And it’s basically making the case for why someone going to college should have a computer. Right.And so in 1989, it was not a, it was not a given that everyone should have a computer. I think this is evidence of that. The next, the next three decades saw everyone deciding, yep, we all need a computer.Michael HornWe all actually need this. Yeah.Joe RossSo I think we should put a link to it in your show notes if you have something like that. It’s kind of a fun thing.Michael HornYeah, we’ll definitely do that. Yeah, yeah.Joe RossSo nobody today is asking who needs a computer anyway. Right. But back in 1989, people were asking who needs a computer? And, and I think it’s interesting to think, okay, so what was the difference here? And what you saw with computers starting in the 80s was the classic elements of disruption which you can talk about. And what you’ve seen with, with higher ed for a variety of reasons is not that. Right. And when you, when you, when you think about what College For All means, it means targeting non consumption at the end of the day. Right. Like if everybody’s going to get into this market, that means you’re dealing with non consumers becoming consumers.Well, that made me think of disruption theory. Made me think of you. Right. And I think it’s worth asking, okay, what if we’ve been going about this all wrong? Maybe what we need to do instead is address the barriers to disruption that are endemic to higher ed. And if we can remove those barriers, or if the timing is right for other reasons, perhaps we will find that the headlines saying College For All is dead may be famous last words. Almost like saying College For All is dead to Long live College For All. Like we might be at an inflection point right now.Evolution of higher educationMichael HornSo I just looked up, we can correct ourselves. Steve Jobs left Apple in 1985 and the cartoons a few years after that then. Let’s dig into this and one of the arguments you’ve persuasively made is that there’s been more, I’ll call it generational innovation in higher ed over the years. Like we have reinvented what is college several other times in ways that we don’t always give credit to. So I’ll give my run through. And then you edit me. How about that? Which is like, so first you sort of have this very religious tutorial, almost model of higher education, very bespoke, very often actually, frankly, high school age students attending Harvard and places like it. And then the real sort of two revolutions, I guess, that really start to change that occur in the 1800s.You mentioned one of them, the land grant universities. And then the other of course is the research university being brought over from, from Germany really and adapted here with Johns Hopkins and the like. And sort of a change in what we think higher education should look like. And then I think that the next wave, if I would, is probably the GI Bill and community colleges dramatically expanding access and our notion in the 1940s and then through, I guess maybe you’d say the Higher Ed act. And then I would say the next wave was online education, which I would argue was the only one that could have been potentially disruptive. And I think there are some entities that are disruptive, but big but, because we had the subsidy top down thing that you were describing, a whole bunch of traditional institutions implemented online learning as a sustaining innovation, which actually meant they never innovated on cost because they didn’t have to. And so it sort of gummed up the wheels, if you will, of disruption in some pretty significant ways.Those are the big shifts off the top of my head, but I’d love your edits on that because you’ve thought more about it.Joe RossYeah, I think that you’re right that there’s the storyline of the College For All movement that goes back literally a couple centuries. Right. And I think you’ve laid that out and it’s basically marked by various efforts to expand access to post secondary education for a variety of motivating reasons. Another angle on this history is to think about the seasonal, if you will, pace of change in higher ed. And John Thielen in his History of Higher Education book that is I think required reading and for anyone who goes to get a PhD in the history of higher ed, I dug into it when we started reach universities six years ago and one of the things that struck me is his observation that higher ed undergoes a series of pivots every generation or so, every 20 years, but undergoes a major revolution every century or so. And like folks waiting for the next big earthquake in California, I guess we’re kind of due for this, this earthquake. It’s been about a century or so and if you mark it this way, you could observe for example that three centuries ago Harvard was actually primarily focused on religious education and teaching in Latin.That was the primary language of instruction at Harvard. Into the early, in the 1800s you saw the emergence of the land grant university. That was a major change. And then in the 1900s, I think we saw a lot of the systemization and industrialization of higher ed processes as well as approaches that we just take for granted now. The SAT, the fact the medical school starts with four years followed by an internship and then a residency, the way business school leverages the case study method, all that kind of, all that kind of systemization and uniformity around approach started really in the, in the 1900s with an attempt to expand access and make it more efficient. I think in the 20th century the question is, the 21st century where we are now, what is the big pivot we’re about to experience? And I think you’re right. There was a sense with the arrival of the Internet that the Internet was going to transform higher education in a material way. And we saw lots of interesting sustaining innovations, whether it was the, you know, flipped classroom or the MOOC or a variety of other things.But I would argue, as you just, I think said, that these were examples of higher ed adopting an innovation, but not actually doing the innovation themselves. That’s the way I would put it. Meaning they adopted technology. Fine, great. But disruption theory, as I understand it, includes a couple of elements. And one of those elements is a radical affordability that expands access to people’s, you know, creates more capacity to engage in something.And that leads to non consumption being addressed. Typically it’s paired with kind of a simpler streamed down approach to the product or the service. I guess my question is technology has driven so much disruption in the last several decades. I mean, one of my questions is if higher ed adopts technology and that creates sustaining innovation, what would it look like for higher ed as a human to human enterprise? Let’s just assume that that’s what it is. We could argue about that. We’re seeing schools arise that are thinking about using AI to do all the teaching and learning.Right. But there’s a case to be made that education requires social construction of learning, interaction with other people, dealing with ideals in real time, building relationships that are learning relationships and also networks. So if we were to assume that higher ed is a service in the same way that Chipotle is a service, right. Then I guess what are the models for disruptive innovation that higher ed could look at? Are there examples of primarily human to human businesses that have been disrupted not so much by the technology adoption, but by other things like process innovation or the like?Michael HornYeah, and it’s interesting you say that because Paul Peterson has made the case that disruptive innovation, right. In lots of service industries it looks like changing the relationship and the work that you have the consumer themselves do. In some ways there’s a change. There’s a technology enabler. Yes. And there’s some sort of process change that puts more, if you will, on the consumer and changes the relationship in some way to the entity itself. And so I would argue it’s almost always a process change is at the heart of disruption. And process you could almost actually think of in technology.If you think of technology as sort of like input, process, output. Right. In some sort of like simplistic way. It’s not how we think of it today. We think of it as technology being synonymous with digital, but I don’t think that’s how it would have been historically thought of. When we think about the big disruptions throughout history, you know, going to like steam ships, disrupting sail. Right. Or anything like that.So that’s my quick reaction to you. I have a second reaction which is I do think like the Western Governors Universities of the world and the Southern New Hampshire onlines, they do bear a lot of the hallmarks of disruption. And I think the question has always been in my mind is the reason the technology enabler is so important is it allows you to start doing simple things but without changing your cost structure, start to do more complicated problems, if you will solve more complicated problems. And it hasn’t been clear yet what that looks like in that context. Right. So you just referenced. So let’s stay with Western Governors. I love them for a lot of reasons, but it’s largely asynchronous.Discussing upmarket education strategiesMichael HornNot while there are a lot of people supporting you. It’s not that person to person delivery or conversation you just referenced. One might think of that as like the step up, if you will, in terms of like, you know, more complicated use cases of education and things of that nature. Which then asks the question like, okay, well what would that look like for them to go up market or for fundamentally, you know, what you all are doing, obviously this apprenticeship degree concept that you have slotted in here, perhaps take advantage of online, but actually to enable some of these conversations and really dramatically change the credit. I’m going to use that word that the student gets for work that they’re doing in other realms of their life. And that may be the interesting flip that allows for that sort of upward technology enabler to do things that were previously complicated and expensive and had to be sort of centralized in, in a traditional public university. Those are quick download of thoughts. Your turn to riff.Joe RossYeah, no, so I think I’m drawn to the Examples of innovation. I don’t know. There’s the Minute Health clinics, for example. Yeah, Minute Health, what was it? Discount retailers, clothing retailers.Michael HornDiscount retail was actually the one I was thinking. Right. So like if you think about Walmart, Kmart, Target, all birthed in 1962, disrupted the 300 plus full service department store chains. And like, I don’t think people realize because of like what Macy’s has become, how radical it was because like you walked into a Macy’s, you had literally like a store consultant as your shopper, like helping you navigate this. And the big innovation in some ways of Walmart was. No, no, no, no, like we’re going to organize it super easily for you, but like you do the work of like finding your stuff. Right, right. In many ways.Yeah, sorry, keep going.Joe RossYeah, yeah, no, so I look at this and think, okay, so, so there are ways for service businesses to disrupt and then technology can actually accelerate that or enable it in certain ways. I agree with you that WGU, Southern New Hampshire University radically lowered the costs of a degree and altered processes and leveraged technology in a variety of ways. But I wonder whether there’s a broader, deeper disruption possible here. If you fully think about rearranging all this deck chairs, all the chairs on the deck. And I think this work embedded education movement, including the apprenticeship, including the apprenticeship degree, is pointing to some things that we should look at as possible drivers of a much more radical disruption of higher education. There are a couple things that you could point to. First, work based higher education and apprenticeship degrees leverage workplaces as their campus very intentionally so. There are plenty of places in this country where college or university is not within community distance.But there’s no county in this country where there’s not a school within community distance. And there’s almost no county where there’s not some type of medical center within community distance. And in those places, especially in rural communities, those are the families sustaining wage jobs in those places, the school or the hospital. Right. So you’ve got all these workplaces that could become learning places. That’s thing one, thing two, the apprenticeship relies on people in the workplace to do a lot of the teaching. Right. Whether they’re mentors or they’re providing on the job training or related instruction, you suddenly have an opportunity to bring instruction out of the ivy tower and into the you know, floor of the workplace.And now you have a different pool of folks who are able to provide instruction and that could drive different cost models. And to your point, the behavior of the learner is driven to change here too. To some degree there is still instruction, there are still assignments. We’ll talk about the credit hour being disrupted or broken up in different ways. But at the end of the day, an apprentice or anyone engaged in work based learning needs to do their own sense making and their own connection making. I am at work. How do I connect what I’m doing at work with whatever I’m being instructed on? And there’s a little bit of increased onus on the learner in that context as well. I think that there’s a bit of a perfect storm converging that suggests maybe we’re going to see.Shifting views on higher educationJoe RossI actually think there’s a good chance that we’re going to see all the calls for all the obituaries for College For All look like famous last words say 10, 15 years from now. Because things are really different than they were for most of our adult lives. There’s a complete collapse in confidence in traditional higher ed. There are a lot of folks and families who used to want their kids to go to college and half as many do now as they did 10, you know, 10 years ago. Employers are seeing once in a lifetime labor shortages in healthcare and teaching and other fields. There’s a call from this administration to re industrialize the country and bring more jobs to more places. There are a lot of things coming together and the student debt system has been discredited. So you could decide based on all those things.College is dead. Right? And as I said, the history of higher ed suggests that it’s. Everyone hates when I say this, but it’s kind of like a cockroach. It does not know how to die. Right. Like higher ed has changed radically when it has needed to. And I think there’s some early signs that my proposition here may be right. You’re seeing the potential of new accreditors arise to make it easier for new entrants into the field.You’re seeing both sides of the political spectrum, whether or not they like degrees, they seem to like apprenticeship degrees. I think there’s a lot of ingredients in the soup here that suggest we may be looking at a book that says who needs college anymore? In the same way that we could look at the pamphlet in 1989 asking who needs a computer? I mean look, I’m staked in this future obviously, so I think.Michael HornYeah, but what you just said is important, right I think. Which is, it also answers them. So people like me who’ve been arguing, I’m not sure College For All makes sense. What we’ve been saying is career connected learning makes sense. What’s interesting about the vision you just laid out is we don’t have to choose. Right. Like it sets it up as a false choice because there’s this new structure coming in that actually does both.And maybe that’s where I want to dig into because like, you drew a very subtle distinction for me, a few, maybe it’s a couple months ago at this point, but where you said there’s sort of like apprenticeship degrees and degree apprentices or something like that. I may get the second formulation wrong. But. So I’d love you to unpack that. But I’d also love you to unpack something else really interesting you said to me, which was all the people like me who are now saying the liberal arts actually are.It’s their moment in some interesting way. You actually made the argument. Yeah. And it also might like liberal arts versus career connected might also be a false dichotomy. So I just asked you two questions in one, which is like, you’re not supposed to do that, butJoe RossYou’re not a lawyer, soMichael HornI can go riff.Joe RossI can’t say Objection. Compound question.Michael HornExactly. Yeah.Joe RossBut let me hit the liberal arts one too first and then I’ll go back to the apprenticeship degree. I think that a couple years ago it was very, very unfashionable to say liberal arts still mattered. That that is clearly not as much the case today. I’m seeing lots of articles being published. Elevating the liberal arts is a answer to the challenge of AI, but it’s still considered kind of a binary work based job training on one hand versus liberal arts on the other hand. As I’ve shared with you before, I think it’s a false binary. I think that. And it was a false binary before the challenge of AI.I think liberal arts can equip people to solve problems and be entrepreneurial. To draw metaphoric connections between one problem and other contexts in ways that I think have driven a lot of innovation in this country. And of course there are a lot of examples of. Let’s go back to Apple. But Steve Jobs talking about how important the humanities was to innovation in his context. And I think that you just have to posit a few examples of how this could be true. Yeah. Learning some.Connecting liberal arts to careersJoe RossYou know, when I was at Yale, I took a course on Chinese Buddhism. It’s hard for me to know exactly what Chinese Buddhism has to do with my life. I’m dure, I could draw some connection, but probably there’s some way to do it. The great books that you see being taught at St. John’s College or starting at the University of Chicago in the 1940s, there are ways to draw connections between that classic conception of liberal arts and on the job work. The example I always give is if you’re teaching someone project management, you could assign John Locke, who writes about property and goes on the sort of a topic of how ownership of property actually leads to better productivity of that property. And then you could ask someone to make their own sense of that in the context of a project. Okay, what does what John Locke has to say about property have to do with you as a project manager in the workplace? Make your own sense of that.Right. And I think it’s pretty easy to say, okay, ownership of a project leads to more productivity. And so I think there are ways to make the liberal arts applied and connected. And there are also ways to let it be completely irrelevant. And that’s just a choice. It’s a design choice. Right. You could design a scope and sequence of curriculum that really embeds and centers of liberal arts.One of the things we’re doing at Reach University is doing that. One of our big convictions is that liberal arts should and can be applied to work based learning no matter what field. And that’s a challenge we’ve set out to realize.Michael HornQuickly, what does that look like? Right, like just break it down because you just said the students workplace. And so just to be clear, like for the teachers you’re educating, future teachers you’re educating.Joe RossYeah, the teachers need to know liberal arts. So it’s actually a gimme in teacher education. Teachers need to know literacy and history and social science. And the broad definition of liberal arts being basically conversation with works and conversation with other people. It’s easy to make the case that that’s essentially liberal arts in the workplace. Okay, how about healthcare? We’re about to launch a healthcare college. It’s gonna be called the Apprenticeship College of Health. By the time this airs, probably it will been announced and we are starting in a behavioral health occupation.And so the question is, okay, what does liberal arts have to do with behavioral health? Well, one of the things you need to learn in behavioral health is Psychology 1, Psychology 2: Abnormal Psychology. And so we challenge ourselves to pair that psychology sequence with something in the liberal arts that was relevant. We need to provide a literature course as part of general education. Even in an apprenticeship degree, you could choose whatever literature you Want? Well, why not choose the literature of mental illness to pair with the psychology and abnormal psychology course? So you have a track on psychology, you have a track on the literature of mental illness, which could be everything from Freud to anything written by a Russian author as far as I’m concerned. And you got the literature of mental illness. But it’s about the intentional pairing of works that you would consider part of the liberal arts world with the workplace. And that’s an act of selection.Right. You, you need to be intentional about that. And I think sometimes in traditional higher ed, professors want to teach what they want to, what they’re, you know, what they’re writing about. But when you’re designing work based education, you need to be selective about making sure that there’s an applicable relevant.Michael HornWell, it points to the other piece, the disruption. Right. In the sense of like this is not a research driven institution. It’s an education driven institution which starts from a different set of precepts. And you’ve rethought what the faculty’s role is in that we’re not going to just listen to. Because Michael Horn wrote a book on this. He’s going to teach that which is, let’s be honest, that’s somebody do.Joe RossIt’s still very interesting for faculty to do this. It’s just a different challenge. Right. Instead of teaching the thing that you’re writing your next book on, how do I look for a way to find something that’s relevant to the workplace but still gives someone grist to engage in kind of like thinking about how things are different, how things are the same particulars versus generalities in life.Michael HornYeah. And it might be okay to say it’s not perhaps the right model for the research. New knowledge of the future that is perhaps disconnected from the immediate workplace concerns. And that’s okay as well. That’s a different model.Joe RossThere are still mainframe computers out there. It’s still a business, they still exist, they serve a function. Right. It’s just a different model. And there are a lot more laptops and desktops than mainframes as a sheer number and a sheer revenue volume. But you still need mainstream computers for certain things. Similar.Michael HornCan you actually just. I’m going to highlight that point and then a couple other questions, which is just to make the point, like mainframes, you just said it. They still exist. They still do raw computing better than does the things we have in our laps and desks and pockets. And what disruption really was, was the volume went elsewhere. Right. And the market greatly increased in terms of the number of participants and volume collapsed from the mainframe computer companies, which led to their demise, I think in higher ed, frankly, like the Harvards of the world, the research universities, you know, they’re sort of predicated. Their quality is predicated on whom they exclude, not whom they include.And so.Joe RossThat’s right.Michael HornThey may be just fine with the volume going elsewhere. And their business model is actually built to last in that scenario, which is different from say a Digital Equipment Corporation as a mini computer provider. So that, that’s one thing just to underscore. I mean, even vacuum tubes are still used for crying out loud.Joe RossThat’s right. That’s right.Michael HornSo, so the other thing just on that, the. There’s an important part of your definition of liberal arts that I think is clarifying because I also think it’s like a. It’s a bit of a catch all phrase and a lot of people sort of mean more humanities by it. But then they exclude the natural sciences, which that’s actually incorrect. If you think about liberal arts, it is incorrect. You have it as more like that conversation piece of what the liberal arts. Can you just expand on that? Because that’s an important piece.Joe RossYes. You know, my son went to St. John’s College and that’s one of the. That’s kind of a pinnacle. He turned down a bunch of places to go to St. John’s College, which basically is a four year experience of reading a prescribed curriculum of great books and great works. And it includes the history of science, includes the history of math. It is a broad view that defines liberal arts as having to do with works across many fields that have been in conversation over the centuries with other works.Defining liberal arts educationJoe RossPano Kanelos was the former president of St. John’s he went on to become the founding president of the University of Austin. And I’m actually drawing a little bit on his definition here, which I think is really compelling, which is liberal arts can be thought of as a conversation in two dimensions. In the first dimension, it is a conversation with works, human creative works. And in the second dimension, it’s a conversation with humans about those works and about ideas. And I think if you think about liberal arts as that, the word liberal comes from this idea of free. And so how do you free one’s mind to engage with different ideas with surprising evidence, to unshackle itself from dogma? And I think that when I think about liberal arts, I think about that conversation and then if you can apply that conversation into the workplace, you create a toolkit for solving problems and for being creative and for challenging assumptions. And I think that’s a core skill in the workplace.I want to get back to the apprenticeship degree itself.Michael HornYeah, that’s where I was going to go next.Joe RossApprenticeship degree, you want to go there? Yeah, let’s, let’s go there. Because you mentioned it there, there is a such thing. If you look at New America, they have defined a degree apprenticeship, which is the foreign terminology for this model that comes from the uk. The UK has a whole degree apprenticeship field. In France they call it the laissez professional. In Germany it’s called dual education. There is kind of an international set of examples of work based higher education paired with apprenticeship. You could argue that that’s been going on here for some time.New America just came out with a report. There’s 600 registered apprenticeship programs that they found that have a degree embedded into their program standards. So I think of that as a kind of a useful thing. Knowing that a degree apprenticeship defines an apprenticeship is helpful, but it’s really an apprenticeship that includes any kind of degree at all. Right. There’s a degree in its program standards. The reason we’re really intentional about talking about an apprenticeship degree where the apprenticeship is the adjective and the degree is the noun, is that we are challenging the concept of what a degree can be. And I’ve laid out three core elements in this definition that I remember as the ABCs that I think fit with disruptive theory to some degree.A stands for affordability right there. That’s what we said at the outset has been lacking in kind of the history of higher ed College For All recently. And at reach, we just, we just set a price for ourselves. $75 a month out of pocket for every learner. We’d figure out the rest through a combination of employer contributions in the Pell Grant and workforce dollars. B stands for based in the workplace from day one to the day of completion, where the workplace is the learning place where classmates are colleagues. I think that’s part of the process change in an apprenticeship degree where you’re really leveraging real estate differently, similar to the way maybe mimic clinics leverage real estate differently. Right.And then C stands for credit for learning at work where you’re embracing the idea again, a process change that actual measurable and credible learning happens in the workplace and you’re actually giving credit for that learning in a way that just makes it a lot more easy for more people to get into the pathway towards a higher credential.Michael HornAnd that’s important, I think because. Yeah, I was gonna say thatJoe RossI think it’s important because, yeah, it calls. When we think about the apprenticeship degree. I’m not trying to change apprenticeship. Right. I mean, maybe there are reasons to change apprenticeship, but that’s not my job. We’re trying to change the degree. We’re trying to create a model of a different kind of degree that is still not a compromise in terms of what you get from it, but fundamentally different. And so if the degree itself becomes driven by apprenticeship elements, you could imagine much more access, much more, if you will, College For All than necessarily would arise from expanding the apprenticeships in the department of labor that have a degree because that’s going to serve a certain subset of the population.But if degrees change as a thing, whether it’s part of an apprenticeship or not, you get to a space where maybe we’ll see the trajectory in college follow the trajectory that we saw with computers. Right, like that.Reducing student opportunity costsMichael HornYeah, that’s what we’re hearing that switch. Well, so let me try to draw out what I see as a couple important precepts here as we start to wrap up, which is not only have you dramatically reduced the out of pocket cost to the student and frankly the fundamental expenditure that you all are putting forth, you’ve also erased the opportunity cost in large measure because now I don’t know the number, 70% of students are actually working at least part time, I think, while they’re doing their degrees in the US and you’re saying, great, that’s no longer at the expense of time studying. It is congruent with studying. So you’re like, right, and you can keep earning. And so you sort of have obliterated sort of this time pressure and the opportunity cost, it seems to me on students that’s a big deal, I think. And then the second thing you’ve done which is so critical at the moment is, you’re embedding it in the workplace itself. That’s going to be relevant to what they go do next. Right.It’s not just like a random walk place and you know, walk through work. It’s intentional around the things that they’re going to go do. And there’s some sense of the competencies that they should master in that set of experiences. And then as I understand it, at least the online is sort of giving both theoretical construct and importance to what they’re doing in the job. But it also is allowing for these conversations, this liberal arts part of the package, if you will, which seems so important at the moment with AI and sort of, again, splits these things as false dichotomies and radically changes this picture of what is college. And so maybe there are a few other things you’d add, but I’m curious how you think we did.Joe RossI think it’d be great. And I think on that point, it’s an example of how technology is actually enabling this. Right?Michael HornYes, I agree.Joe RossOnline, before COVID meant message boards and asynchronous correspondence between faculty and learners.Michael HornOr when it was synchronous, let’s call it what it was. It was more expensive. Right.Joe RossOr when it was synchronous, it was more expensive. Yeah. Everybody’s very much used to using Zoom and Zoom, but people forget, like, it used to be very hard to have multiple people doing video conferences at once. That was a technology problem.Michael HornThat’s a good point.Joe RossUntil, like, 2010. So Zoom got started in around 2011, by the way. I was at Cisco at the time. The founder of Zoom took me to lunch and said he was going to leave WebEx and start this thing called Zoom. And it was going to be. I think at the time, he was done with the enterprise world and he wanted to create a video chat experience for teenagers.Michael HornWell, you remember, like, we had. What Cisco was telepresence. Right.Joe RossAnd it was like they tried telepresence.Michael HornExpensive. Yeah, it was hugely expensive.Joe RossThe mainframe. Yeah, like the mainframe of video conferencing. But they also had. They also had acquired WebEx. And WebEx was like the dominant player in video conferencing. But it was quite expensive and challenging to have multiple different videos happening at once, even in WebEx. And so one of the things that Eric Wan did is he really wanted to have multiple folks talking at once and have that maybe more affordable. So he leaves Cisco, starts Zoom.He actually had my oldest child play with an early version of it because he thought it was for teenagers. And then he’s like, no, it’s not for teenagers. It’s still enterprise. Right. This is an untold story, perhaps, but I remember this was real. I met him at a party and he was like, you know, if you could have your children come and play with my new things, Zoom, maybe I’ll learn something. And he did some user interviews with them. Next thing I knew, it was for the enterprise.But anyway, point being, it’s much, much more possible and feasible and affordable now to have a seminar online with 20 or 25 learners at once, cameras on, talking to each other around a virtual Harkness table than it was 15 years ago. It’s much, much more possible. And so I think that’s critical. If you believe in liberal arts, you believe in that synchronous conversation and you believe in that discussion. And we’re able to do that now at scale because we could have several thousand people online at once in Zoom spaces of 1 to 20 across the country. And for us that makes a lot of sense. I don’t know if we could have done that 20 years ago.Michael HornSo one other piece of this that I imagine is that hopefully people will agree with this framing, but if they don’t, that’s okay too. But one of the trade offs, it seemed to me, was the asynchronous again, dramatically improves convenience, access, et cetera. And because like you’re not supposed to be at a certain point, you know, a certain class at a certain time, success rates are lower and contrast with the synchronous versions. And so I’m thinking of the OPM providers like 2U at the time, right. Going to top institutions, charging a ton of money, right, for these synchronous experiences doesn’t really expand access. But like success rates are super high. And so all of a sudden that becomes like a bit of a talking point in the industry, right? Well, you can do high cost synchronous or you can do low cost asynchronous where the success rates aren’t going to go. You can, you know, expand access versus success.You probably know where I’m going. I think you all have 3400 students at this point at Reach. What do your success rates look like? Have you broken yet another dichotomy, if you will?Joe RossWell, I think so because, you know, overwhelming majority of our population are what used to be called non traditional, so working adults in their 30s, sometimes, more often than not, single parents have full time jobs, full time families, anywhere between 65 to 75% Pell eligible, depending on the moment in time. That is a population who typically graduates college at rates below 50%. If you just look at the pell eligible population, we across our cohorts are seeing 70% on time graduation rates, a trend towards that. We’re seeing much stronger, not just first year retention, but retention overall. And part of that is because of the human social connection in the experience right. If you can actually put people in a space together as we do, and not only are they during the day treated with their colleagues who are also their classmates, and they build that social nexus there, but also the seminars in the evenings, which by the way mix people from all parts of the country and seminar spaces on Zoom. We’re seeing people become close to each other in those Zoom spaces and forgetting that they’re far away from each other,Michael HornWhich is what 2U reported as well. Like when they were powering the UNCMBA, these people would show up on campus and be like, oh my gosh, it’s you. And they’re thrilled to see each other.Joe RossIt’s real. It’s real, it’s real.Michael HornBut you’re doing it with this radical affordability and access piece that is like, seems different to me.Joe RossThat’s right. It does not need to be expensive. And I think, you know, part of the reason 2U, it was expensive is they were working with the elites, right? So the elites had.Michael HornThey were layering it over their existing business model rather than reinventing it.Joe RossThat’s right. They had a high sticker price. It was their existing business model. You know, it cost over $10,000 to recruit people into those programs, but they were charging much, much more. Our approach is almost no recruitment costs because our employers are doing the recruiting. And so we’re able to charge much, much, much, much less and cover our costs.Michael HornSorry, that’s a big piece. Can we just like. That’s a huge piece. Because the biggest cost to online programs, if you just looked at one lump sum, is the cost of student acquisition. Everyone loves to poo poo it, but it’s just like it’s real. Right?Joe RossSo it’s real.Michael HornYeah, yeah.Joe RossAnd look, it’s very hard to know what actually it costs to recruit people into higher ed because so little of it is public and it’s conflated especially with.Michael HornWell, with athletics and all sorts of things.Cost of student acquisitionJoe RossYeah, all those other things. But if you look at some of the public company P&Ls the public for profits in higher ed, you can get a sense of what it costs to recruit because they do have to report everything. So if you look at that, whether it was Grand Canyon or Phoenix when they were public, because they’re public again for a quote unquote affordable mass market higher ed degree, typically the cost of student acquisition is around $3,000 right there. So that’s a chunk. It could be more, but it usually is about $3,000. For the very expensive programs. I think I looked into 2U public filing. I think they were looking at 10 to $12,000.Michael HornI was gonna say 10 to 15 was my memory.Joe RossSo 10 to 15,000. All right. So if you want to disrupt with affordability, that doesn’t work. But if you leverage the workplace as your learning place and employers as your partners now you have virtually no marketing spend. Everything is partnership based. I think the biggest vendor for WGU, if you look at their 9/90 is Google. And so they’re spending tens of millions, millions of dollars on advertising. Even at WGU, I think it’s over 90 million a year last I checked.Right. It is really expensive to recruit consumers on the Internet. Work based education skips all that. Right. And this is what I tell higher ed partners.Michael HornSo you just need a way to make the partnerships line up though.Joe RossYou just need, you just need to sign up the partnership. So you have a couple of partnerships folks developing relationships with employers. And I’m not competing for AdWords. Right. And so if you’re not competing for AdWords, if you’re not doing billboards, if you’re not doing radio, your cost of acquisition goes way, way down. That’s a huge driver of cost savings. There are other drivers around the process. Right.Streamlining the curriculumJoe RossOne of the things that we did is say, you know what, we’re going to have no electives, we’re going to have a prescribed curriculum and business speak. Much fewer SKUs. We just had one simple thing to offer from beginning to end. This lowers costs in so many ways, including all our advisors know exactly where people are, what they did last semester, and what they’re going to do the next semester. They don’t have to look anything up. They just know, oh, you’re taking a social science semester. We know that next is math.We know that. Right. Everybody knows that. And so there are a number of things that we realized in kind of the environment of constraint that we faced in starting Reach University are really unusual in higher ed and they lower your cost dramatically. And that was a huge driver. That’s why A is first in my ABCs. Affordability is the first thing we had to debate should it be access or affordability. And we’re like, access can be with debt, like, let’s name it, it’s affordable.Now it’s really, really, really fashionable to talk about affordability in American politics. But we were talking about it before it was cool.Michael HornYeah. And you were talking about real affordability. Because that’s the other thing. Allowing people to afford what is still expensive is not true affordability. And that’s, I think that’s what drives me nuts about a lot of the ROI calculators out there is that they’re not taking into account the full cost of attendance.Joe RossNo.Michael HornMeaning the government cost plus the student and in your case, the opportunity cost. So, like, those are three big things.Joe RossRight? Right. If people don’t need to leave their job, leave their home, leave their work and go into debt, the barrier to entry gets way way lower.Michael HornAll right, well, it’s time to get. As we wrap up here, it’s time to get Matt Groening to write or to draw a cartoon saying, who needs college anymore?Joe RossI love that. Exactly. Who needs college anymore?Michael HornThat’s the next step. But you have split a lot of the false dichotomies, it seems to me at this moment. So final thoughts as we wrap up here.Joe RossWell, I think that I’d say maybe we’ve been asking the wrong question. Right. It’s not who needs college? It’s how does college need to change?Michael HornThere we go.Joe RossI think if we think about it that way, maybe all the obituaries for higher ed will look like famous last words In a few years,Michael HornThere’s going to be a lot more to watch and unpack. But, Joe, seeing the signals before the data. Appreciate you joining us. Joe Ross from Reach University. And we’ll be back next time on The Future Of Education. Thanks to you all.The Future of Education is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit michaelbhorn.substack.com/subscribe

April 13, 202652 min

How Will You Measure Your Life?

In 2012, Clay Christensen joined with James Alworth and Karen Dillon to write what I think of as one of the most important books out there called How Will You Measure Your Life. It was based on a the last class that he did at the Harvard Business School every single year. And in this conversation that you’re about to hear, Karen Dillon, Scott Anthony, another of Clay’s acolytes, and me got together and were interviewed by Victor Zhao and Martin Ekiti, co-presidents of the Parents@Harvard Chan School of Public Health to think about how we measure our lives and things that we take from that—to really make sure that we’re living in concert with purpose and the progress we seek to make and not drifting off course. I hope you enjoy the conversation that I’m bringing to you here that was recorded live on April 3rd.The Future of Education is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Paid subscribers receive unlimited access to My Delphi as well—helpful when I’m choosing family over “one more call”!VictorFirst, I’d like to quickly introduce ourselves and then just set up the backdrop for today’s conversation. Thank you everyone. My name is Victor. I’m one of the co leads of the Parents at Harvard Chan community which is the Parents club of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Along with my co moderator Martin we are really grateful to bring this conversation together. And this conversation is a part of the whole life Leadership speaker series, a Harvard affiliated series exploring one central question. What are the pivotal mindsets, habits and tools needed to succeed both at work and at home? At its core, the series is built on a simple belief that leadership is not compartmentalized.Honoring Clayton Christensen’s legacyVictorHow we show at work and how we set up at home are deeply connected. And today leaders we have a very special session. We are gathering to honor the legacy of Professor Clayton Christensen, whose work reshaped how the work understands innovation, but who also challenged us to think more deeply about something even more important, which is how we measure our lives. In his well known framework, Clay encouraged us to think about three key questions. How do we find meaning in our careers? How do we build enduring relationships? And how we live lives of integrity. And today we’re honored to be joined by three remarkable individuals, thinkers and leaders who have engaged deeply with Clay’s work and ideas and they will help us explore how these principles apply in real life. First, we have Scott Anthony. Scott is a Clinical professor of Strategy at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth and previously spent over two decades at Innosight, the forum co-founded by Clay Christensen, where he served as a global managing partner.He’s a leading thinker on innovation and disruption, a Thinkers50 award winner and author of several influential books including Dual Transformation and the most recently, Epic Disruptions. Scott brings both deep intellectual and practical perspectives on how Clay’s idea have evolved and been applied over time. Next we have Karen Dillon. Karen is a co author of How Will You Measure Your Life based on Clay’s work and teaching and served as the editor of Harvard Business Review. She worked closely with Clay for over a decade and has been instrumental in translating his ideas into guidance for individuals navigating life leadership and well being. Her current work focuses on helping people understand how everyday decisions shape long term outcomes, including her recent book the Macro Stress Effect. And finally, we have Michael Horn. Michael is a co-founder of the Clay Christensen Institute for Disruptive Innovation and a faculty member at the Harvard Graduate School of Education.He is a widely recognized author and thought leader in education and career development, including his recent new book, Job Moves. Michael’s work focuses on helping individuals build lives of meaning and fulfillment. He closely aligned with questions Clay challenged us to consider. And with that, we are very excited for you all to be here. Let’s dive into the conversation and Martin will open our conversation up with a question for all our panelists.MartinThank you so much, Victor, for passing the baton to me. Well, I am personally very excited to be part of this conversation. We’re going to talk about a few things over the next few minutes. I know we had some technical issues in the beginning, but we’re going to divide the talk into different sections over the next, I don’t know, 40 minutes and then have some time at the end for Q and A. But before we go into some of the specific sections, I just want to ask all the panelists in general, when you hear the phrase whole life leadership, what does that mean to you personally? And how did your relationship with Clay Christensen’s work or personally shape that understanding for you? So Scott shows up first on my screen. So I’ll start with you, Scott.Scott AnthonyAll right, well, thank you very much. The last name of Anthony often gives me the first right of speaking in discussions like this, but it is a real privilege to be part of this discussion. Karen and Michael are longtime friends, although we’ve never, the three of us done something together. So this is a great opportunity. You know, Martin, when I hear whole life leadership, I really think of something that I teach my students at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College. I start by reading poetry to them, which is a little weird to do in an MBA classroom, but I like to do slightly weird things. And I had the poem The Road Not Taken by Robert Frost. I won’t recite it now because we all know it.Finding balance in leadershipScott AnthonyBut the idea that a traveler stands in the yellow woods and he has these choices. I said, this is what life feels like to you, right? You have these either or choices where either I can do this or do that. I could focus on my work, or I could focus on my family, short term or long term, in Clay’s language, sustain or disrupt. I said, what you have to do as a leader is to recognize that these are false choices. And what you have to do is find ways to integrate things where you don’t make it either/or, but you make it both/and. And that, to me, is whole life leadership, where you’re not saying, I’m one way at work and another way at home, or I’m one way with this child and another way with that one.You are one and the same throughout everything. And this, to me, the understanding, all started 26 years ago now when I was sitting in Clay Christensen’s classroom in Aldrich hall at the Harvard Business School, and he gave what I think was one of the first prototypes of the lecture that ultimately became the book How Will You Measure Your Life? And that idea of intentionality and integration, which we’ll continue to talk about through this discussion, really planted very firmly in my head at that moment. So that’s what I think about. And Clay was absolutely seminal in implanting that in me.MartinThank you, Scott, for sharing that. I mean, one thing that you said that really stood out to me is you have to switch from the mindset of either or to a mindset of. And so, you know, after that, I’ll call on okay to go.Karen DillonWell, I definitely agree with Scott. So you. I would have taken away the same lessons from Clay as well. But I think the idea that you bring your whole self to work and you bring your whole self home from work, and they’re really integrated. One of the things I used to love that Clay would talk about is management is a noble profession. Not just because, you know, what you do in the day with the people who report to you can be meaningfulAnd they can feel like they’ve had impact on the world, but the people that they go home to and go home to have a ripple effect on so many other people. And so you, as a manager or a leader, have the ability to sort of exponentially influence lives for the better. If people go home from work feeling fulfilled and feeling like they believe in the mission of what they’re doing, and they know their purpose at work, that person goes home and is a whole different person than the person who goes home and is grumpy and upset and unappreciated and doesn’t want to talk to the family or friends. So I just think the idea that you integrate, which is what Scott talked about, came for me too, is a powerful lesson from Clay that it is a noble profession. So taking leadership seriously beyond the walls of your organization, I think has a real impact.MartinThank you so much, Karen, for sharing that. I mean, you said, just like you said leadership, being a manager is a noble profession. So it’s not something we should take for granted. It’s definitely something we should lean into intentionally. So thank you so much for sharing that. And Michael, by virtue of alphabetical order, you come last. Hopefully we’ll switch it up into previously next in some next questions. But thank you for sharing your, go ahead, please.Life lessons from Clay ChristensenMichael HornI’m quite comfortable coming after Karen and Scott throughout all this, but I think you’ll hear a lot of similarities in some of our answers because we all sat literally at the feet of Clay, given how tall he was, and had these conversations with him over a number of years. But like Scott, I remember that last class where Clay gave a version of what of the talk that ultimately became How Will You Measure Your Life? And I remember running home and calling my mom actually up in Bethesda, Maryland, where Scott also grew up, coincidentally and literally reciting the whole thing to her and story that Karen just told around where he actually talked about when he was running a company that he took public and at the company picnic he saw this woman with her family there and how deeply all of a sudden this sort of washed over him, the realization that if she had a great day at work, she would go home and bring that joy and gratitude into the lives of her family. And if she had had a terrible day at work, been really beaten up, been, you know, yelled at by other people, whatever it was, she would bring sort of that pent up frustration and anger home as well. And just that ripple effect that these spheres of our lives that often we’re told to treat independently are not in fact independent of each other, that they’re quite inter-dependent and I would say in my book Job Moves, that was something that came out loud and clear. We studied literally thousands of individuals as they were switching jobs and what you see is that the decisions that they make where they say, you know, I’m not going to take the higher paying job that climbs the career ladder or whatever else that seemed like a mystery to some managers, it’s actually quite well explained when you realize, well, they had things that were going on in the rest of their lives, children, older parents, whatever it might have been, some sort of set of circumstances where they were making trade offs and these things were not independent of each other. They were quite interdependent. And I’d argue even more so today in a world where Zoom has made remote working more and more a reality for so many. And these questions of how we’re trading off our work and other parts of our lives increasingly are intermixed.And we can argue whether that’s a good thing or bad thing thanks to technology, frankly invading much of our home lives with work. But the reality is they are much more integrated. And so living your life with that authenticity that Scott talked about, I think is incredibly important in all spheres. And treating all people as you want to be treated, really that golden rule in all parts of your life are incredibly important.MartinThank you so much for sharing that, Michael. I mean, one thing that you said that definitely stood out for me is, you know, as managers, as leaders, there’s things going on in the lives of people that you’re leading that you’re not necessarily aware of. So we not only have to be empathetic towards that, we need to understand that those things are driving the choices, even though we don’t understand it. So thank you so much for sharing that. Now we’re going to go into the different sections where we’ll talk about one thing and then the other and probably ask you questions one after the other, probably different questions as well. I’ll pass it over to Victor to introduce section one and then he can ask the first question over to you, Victor.VictorThank you, Martin. As we mentioned earlier about whole life leadership series, we have three focuses: what is the mindset? And then what are the habits? And then what are the tools or systems to help us succeed at home and at work? So first we’re going to focus on the mindset. So Karen, Clay often argued that strategy is shaped by how resources are allocated over time. How did the idea change the way you think about your own time, energy and attention?Personal strategy vs daily choicesKaren DillonWell, the theory of resource allocation may sound very dry to people, but it’s a really powerful insight. It’s a very simple idea that no matter what a company says its strategy is, that strategy is actually formed. The reality of achieving or not achieving that strategy is formed in the everyday decisions and choices that employees make. People on the front lines, people all the way up and down the ranks about how to use company resources and their focus and their energy. And it’s one thing to say what your strategy is, it’s a whole different thing to live it in those everyday resource allocation decisions. And that insight, that simple theory that Clay and I talked about years ago in his office, was a total inflection point for me personally, because as he probably talked about it too, with both Scott and Michael in the class, years before that, you can apply that to your life in a really powerful way. And the idea is very simple that you can say what your strategy is, but your strategy is formed by the reality of the everyday decisions you make personally about how you’re going to focus and where you put your energy and what you prioritize over something else. And for me, when Clay said that, I was in my sort of early 40s and I had two young kids and I had a really big consuming career, and I knew that my personal resource allocation process did not match what I would tell you my life strategy was.It was very different. And, and for many people like I, people like me, you sort of think you can sequence that. You can, you, you can fix it later. You can match your resource allocation process to your real strategy, your real priorities. You know, when, when I get this promotion, when I finish this project, when we move to the big house, whatever, whatever sequence thing comes in your life. But for me, it was really a kind of lightning bolt that I would have told you very clearly that my strategy, my personal strategy, was to have a fulfilling career, but also to be a great mom and a great daughter and a good spouse and a good friend. And I had part of that right. And the other part I really did not have right.Reevaluating personal resource allocationKaren DillonIf you looked at my actual resource allocation over time, over a long period of time, the past month, the past six months, the past year, the past years, you would not say that my strategy was clearly being formed by that resource allocation to achieve what I said I wanted to achieve. And until you actually look at your personal resource allocation process and see if it matches what you want your strategy to be, you’re not going to achieve that strategy. It’s just as simple as that. Everyday decisions and choices and priorities will affect that outcome for you. So it’s a really powerful, simple insight that totally caused me to completely reexamine my own life and think about my own resource allocation process over the long term.VictorYeah. Thank you, Karen. I totally agree that this resource allocation idea sounds simple, but it’s such a powerful mechanism that students are learning why we everyday people use it in their day to day in their personal life. So I really appreciate how Clay translate business strategy to life strategy.Karen DillonTo add one thing, one thing, I was going to give you a quick example of it. So in the business you think about the resource allocation might be which customer is more important than another, where will we cut a corner or not? They’re just simple choices that may not seem to in the moment make a big deal, but they can really be, again, an inflection point in the strategy of the company. We’re cutting corners here. We’re being a little shoddy there. This is more important than that. Those are simple choices. We do it all the time in our personal lives as well. I will make my friends and family a lower priority this week.I’m not going to commit to meeting them for a walk or I’m not going to go to that family birthday party because we just think we’re making a small choice now and it won’t really play out in the long run. But again, every time you make a decision like that in your personal life, I’m not going to get home from work on time today or I am not going to focus on my children, my relationship with my children until school’s out or whatever you are, you’re then making resource allocation decisions that you don’t think about as being such a significant thing, but they are building, and forming your strategy with those every simple everyday decisions.MartinThank you so much for adding that, Karen. So the next question I’ll ask to Scott. In Clay’s work on disruptive innovation, he warned that success can blind us to weak signals. How does that insight apply to leadership in life and family? Where do the costs of ignoring small signals and how can these compound quietly over time?Scott AnthonyWell, the costs are monumental. So let’s start first with the Clay teaching and then I’ll quickly apply it to three different domains. So the things Clay would teach is there’s no data about the future. When you’re trying to make decisions about the future and you are trained to make data based decisions, those will take you backward, not forward. Because again, there’s no data about the future, which means you have to sense and then find a way to amplify what can be very weak signals of change. Now let me start with just physical. If you’re doing any kind of training, it’s obvious to you when there’s a sign of distress. So as a personal example, I’m doing something I’ve never done before.I’m training to run in the Boston Marathon in just a couple weeks. I’m 51. This is a stretch and a push. I’m doing it for charity and all that. But when I am training too hard, I know my knee just tells me, all right, it is time to stop. There’s no ambiguity about it. I don’t argue with the knee. I just go and say, all right, that’s enough for today.But when you’re inside an organization, you might have some low degree of emotional distress and say, you know, something doesn’t feel right about how business is going, but you don’t have the physical signal of your knee shooting paint at you so you can safely ignore it. Or, or find ways to avoid that distress by doing things like, well, maybe we should do another reorg or why don’t we hire a consulting company that’ll keep everybody busy or whatever. You can distract yourself from it. Or in your personal life, if your 14 year old, who’s outside that door right now because they’re off school Today, if your 14 year old is just not having that great a day, it might show up as something very small and subtle and you might say, Harry, go ahead, just play on your device and play geometry dash or whatever. While you’re ignoring that, underneath the surface, there’s a sign. Physically, you see it inside business leadership, you miss it. In our personal life, you can really miss it. And then years down the road, you’re a business leader, your business has gotten away from you, your kids have gone in directions that you’re not happy about.So the trick in all of this is to say, when I sense there’s something going on, stop, pause, reflect, try and grab hold of it and use something to bring it into sharper context. One of the great teachings that Clay gave all of us is lenses. He gave us theories and models and frameworks so you could take that weak signal and make sense of it. It is, in my view, the most important general lesson that he taught. Because if not, you get yourself in trouble because you make a steady stream of incremental decisions that seem to make sense until you end up in the position you don’t want to be in. That’s the essence of the resource allocation process Karen talked about.MartinThank you, Scott, for that. One of the reasons why I really like, you know, not only attending the sessions, but actually putting them together is I personally learned so much because you just gave an example about a 14 year old, and I have a 14 year old, right. And I’m looking forward to coming back from school today because for some odd reason, here we have school today, which makes no sense. But there’s, like you said, there’s always things going on beneath the surface. And unless you are intentional about seeking this out, they just pass you by and it’s one thing and then it goes into another thing and then before you know it, you look back and like, wait, what happened? But you know, you know, consciously, intentionally looking, seeking these things, you know, that’s what I hear you saying. And I definitely, I agree with you. That’s, that’s the way to go when you want to, you know, pivot in time, adjust in time so you’re not looking back and say, hey, where do we go? Going one degree off track for the past 50 miles. So, yeah, thank you.Thank you so much for sharing that.VictorNext question for Michael. Question about purpose. Clay believed that motivation and meaning, not just talents, drive sustained performance in your work on talents, careers and education. How have you seen purpose shape people’s ability to thrive at work and at home?Michael HornWell, I’ll ground us sort of how Clay came into it first and then talk about the application that I’ve seen in my work. But Clay believed everyone was motivated and that motivation was to make progress in their lives as they defined it. And this came from a theory that he developed with some folks, Bob Moesta and some others around jobs to be done. What job are you hiring someone to do in your life? And the observation he made was that a lot of times school, when you were enrolled in it or the job you were in, was actually fundamentally misaligned with progress as you were defining it at the moment. And so it wasn’t that we’ll stay with the 14 year old analogy for a moment, that they were, you know, that they were unmotivated and listless and whatever else, but they were motivated to feel, you know, success and have fun with friends or things like that. And the way school was set up was not, in fact helping them accomplish that. And so instead they were realizing success on that video game that Scott referenced or maybe on the playing fields, right? Or band performances, whatever it might be, they were able to have fun with friends and feel that sense of progress.And then what you realize from that insight is, well, you really have to actually define what is, what does progress look like for me at this juncture and as I’m searching and so forth and making choices. So in college, for example, one of the big ahas from our book Choosing College that we did was that roughly almost half the population, when they enroll in college and they choose a school, they have no idea what that purpose is underlying. They make a decision that’s fundamentally inconsistent with what they’re trying to achieve in their lives. And they often do it because someone else expected them to enroll in college in general or that specific school that they did. And those expectations, it turns out, are a pretty lousy reason to enroll in school. And this may shock this audience at, you know, largely Harvard individuals, but the graduation rate from colleges in America is 60% in six years. So 40%, roughly, of students who go to college, do not graduate within six years.And I will tell you, we make a lot of big deals about student debt and so forth in this country. Turns out generally, actually, that student debt is a good investment to get a college degree. But if you don’t graduate and you also incur debt, that’s the worst of all worlds. And it’s because they often go there without a clear sense of why am I enrolling, what is my purpose here? And when times get tough, as they always do when you’re studying, they could drop out, right? Because that actually seemed like a better way to get back on track in many cases. And the same thing is true in your job, right? We realized as you’re navigating your career. And what we’ve realized as we looked at it is we tried to understand why people made the choice that they did, what was progress for them at any given point. What we saw was that sometimes people work to figure out what is my purpose right there, it’s sort of a learning step, if you will, which is great.Finding purposeMichael HornIt can be short term, it can, you know, sort of help you make progress, move to the next thing that is perhaps closer to what purpose is for you. Secondly, it might be, actually, I already know what my purpose is. And this is very consistent with the work that I’m doing here, is very consistent with the impact I want to have in the world or in my job and so forth. And that could be either sort of a larger, loftier mission, or frankly, just the sense that, like, the work that I do actually has meaning and moves the needle, if you will. You’d be surprised how many people work in jobs where they feel like I show up, and frankly, if I didn’t show up, no one would know the difference. And then the third thing that we often saw is that people work so that they can actually live out their purpose outside of the job, which is a great thing as well. You know, whether that’s in their communities, whether that’s with their home life, their family, the volunteer things that they choose to do work allows them to afford, if you will, the time to dedicate to those things. And I think where people go awry or struggle is not necessarily because of a talent mismatch, but frankly, when those purposes and progress don’t really line up with the choices that they’ve made.And Viktor Frankl and many others have taught us about the centrality of purpose in the human experience and sort of being able to work through struggle and make progress. And when those things don’t line up, you actually see the rampant disengagement. I talked about the college dropout rates, but look, 2/3 of individuals in jobs today completely disengaged from work. And it’s no surprise because they really haven’t thought about or found jobs that tap into that sense of purpose. And likewise, frankly, on the job of colleges and employers or companies making sure, hey, am I hiring someone? Do I really understand why they’re here? And can I help them make progress toward what they’re trying to achieve as well?VictorThank you, Michael. Yeah. Purpose is so important in any area of our life. As you were referencing different researchers, one additional author came to mind is Simon Sinek with his Start with Why. Start with why. You can push through innovation, you can push through challenges, difficulties. So, yeah, thank you for that. And now let’s shift gears to the second part of today’s discussion, the habits.So Martin will kick us off with habits.MartinYeah. So again, in this section two, we’ll be focusing on habits, basically what sustains alignment over time. Because it’s one thing to want something, to have the mindset to do it, but then you have to be able to, you know, move yourself to actually get the thing done. So that’s what we’re going to be talking about in this section. So I’d ask Karen to begin with, in the Micro Stress effect, you show how small chronic pressures erode well being. How does Clay’s work help explain why leaders with good intentions still manage to drift away from what matters most to them?Karen DillonWell, I’ll just explain what microstress means because I think it relates to what Clay talked about as being most important. Microstress. From my research with Rob Cross, a professor, an expert on collaboration at Babson, are the frequent, really quick routine interactions that we have with other people that are so quick, but they’re so micro stressful in the moment that they cumulatively take a real physiological toll on you, meaning by the end of your day. So how many of us have fallen into bed exhausted but you can’t even actually remember what happened that day. It was a normal day, but I’m exhausted, I’m fried. That was probably a day full of microstress. All these interactions with people that are cumulative, taking a toll on you. And the reason that’s important to connect to Clay’s work is because one of the most powerful antidotes to dealing with microstress in our research from a really substantial group of high performers is having meaningful relationships and contacts with other people.And what happens when your day is filled with microstress like that? You don’t have time or energy or emotional bandwidth for anything but responding and reacting to the stresses coming at you. And it could be anything from being mildly misaligned with a colleague to a stressful interaction with a family member you love. They happen in small doses all day long and take a real toll. So you’re too tired to do the things that we know are going to actually give you an injection of joy, in the short term and the long term. So for one, just responding and being on the back foot all day to this barrage of microstress, which feel too small and too stupid to complain about because individually they are small, but cumulatively they’re taking a real toll. And that toll includes not only your physical well being. It’s very bad for you physically to feel this day in and day out, but it’s playing a really negative role in your long term happiness because you are not making time for the things that we know beyond a shadow of a doubt are going to be the most meaningful investments of your life. The personal relationships in your life.So allowing yourself, and we all do, to kind of juggle and just grit through it and deal with a day long, a week long, a month long of microstress, which we all do, is going to take a much bigger toll than you’re realizing in each of those individual moments.MartinThank you so much for sharing that, Karen. I mean, it brings to mind for me personal experience. You know, sometimes we go out to work and then we know we go home, we have to meet a spouse. And sometimes you don’t want to say anything, but then if you don’t say anything, you don’t connect. Like you said, meaningful connections. Making these connections with people that you do love and who are there for you can de stress your life in general. So if you don’t, then the next day it could get worse, even though nothing worse actually happens. So thank you so much for sharing that.VictorAnd next question is for Scott. Clay emphasized that processes, not willpower, drive all costs. What habits or routines have you seen leaders adopt that protect relationships and values during intense professional seasons?Scott Anthony:Right. Well, let me again start by talking about how Clay would explain this. So he had a couple different stories that he would tell that generally related to his religious beliefs that led to him not working on Sunday. And there’s a famous story about a basketball tournament that he did not attend a final game for. There’s a famous story about a train departing from the BCG office at a certain time that he would always make sure he was on that train, which meant that was when he was going to stop working. That I remember back when I was his research associate after graduation, the other person who was doing research with me, we would just joke about the train, and that was our signal for, we’re done for the night. We’re just not doing any more work.Finding balance in work and lifeScott AnthonyThe idea here is you’ve got a decision rule that says, I am going to have a boundary condition. And Clay would say, once you said it, you have to stick to it 100% of the time. It’s actually easier, he would say, to stick to it 100% than 99%, because that 1% turns into 2, 5, 10, 20, and then you don’t have a decision rule. And I think about this personally, going back to what Karen was talking about, about resource allocation should say, I’d be out of balance for a week, month, six month period, et cetera. I think about things in quarterly periods. If you zoom in to any given moment, you cannot be in balance, because in a given moment, you’re doing a thing. So I’m here with all of you. I hear my kids behind the door there, but I am not with them.If I zoom out and look at my entire life, you know, I work reasonably hard, a couple thousand hours a year. You do all the math. You’re working about 22% of your life. That’s kind of useless. But if you look at things over a quarterly basis, I can say, how many of the baseball games and shows and performances did I show up for? How many times was I there for family dinner? How many times was I able to take my kids to a baseball game or whatever? But over the course of a quarter, you could say, hey, in balance or out of balance. And then you can say, what adjustments do I need to make? So that idea of saying, I’m purposely seeking this and I’ve got a mechanism by which I’m going to check it can be a way to do it professionally. One thing that I learned from AG Lafley, who was the CEO of Procter and Gamble for a long period of time, is if you are serious about something and you’re serious about getting your organization to have something be a value that turns into a habit. It has to be first thing Monday morning, not last thing Friday afternoon.Because last thing Friday afternoon. Those are the things that you get to Friday afternoon and the micro stresses that Karen talked about have ground you down to the point where you say, you know what, that can just wait until next week, month, quarter, year. Never gets done. If you say it is the most important thing. So I’m going to do it Monday morning, then you do it. One example, I lived in Singapore for about 12 years. I remember one time P&G’s board met in Singapore and I had breakfast with their head of R and D and I said, how you doing? He said, well, I’m a little tired, to be honest, because before we came to the board meeting, we all fanned out across different regions in Asia and all went to go and spend time with consumers in their home. It was a ritual that P and G did before any big meeting.The top leaders would go out and live what AG Lafley was trying to promote. The idea that consumer is boss, the job they’re trying to get done is what we have to help them with. And if we don’t do it first, we’re never going to do it. So the idea of decision rules and having mechanisms to make sure you do it first, not last, those are the things that I think help to bring intentionality to the different things you’re trying to do.VictorI love that. Scott. I think that it’s very important for all of us, most of us on a call, our parents, to set that ritual, set that process so that we don’t rely on willpower, which can deteriorate as we go throughout the day, throughout the week. So thanks for that. And because of time, we’re going to jump to the third section, the tools and systems. How we can use those tools to help us design a life that holds. So again, back to you, Scott. Clay believed that bad outcomes are really the result of one bad decision, but many small ones compounded over time.So what tools or systems help leaders avoid those kind of drift when trade offs are not obvious day to day,Scott AnthonyI’ll try to be succinct just to make sure there’s plenty of time for the other panelists to have great things to say. I would summarize and simplify down to get outside voices in. So, you know, if you look at people who are elite athletes, the best in the world at their professions, none of them do it on their own. All of them have coaches, multiple coaches to help them be at the really top of their game. Yet somehow we think that our parenting, our business leadership and so on should be something that we do on our own. That’s crazy. Of course, if you’re in a relationship, you’ve got a partner, spouse, or whatever, that can help, but really, it does take a village. So make it collective and have people from the outside that can really hold you accountable professionally.I have a kind of informal personal board of directors that I check in with repeatedly just to make sure that I’m not smoking my own exhaust fumes or whatever, and I’m really doing the things that I want to do. The outsiders can see things in a second that are not obvious to you. So make sure that you got outside voices that help. That, to me, is the most important thing.MartinThanks for sharing, Scott. And I’ll just ask one, you know, ask Michael one other question and then we’ll probably open up the floor for Q and A from the audience if we don’t have any other structured question after that. But Michael, in your work on careers and education, what practical tools have you seen help people navigate transitions? That’s whether it be new roles, parenthood, reinvention, without losing momentum or meaning.Clarity through outside insightsMichael HornYeah, I think clarity around what is the progress I’m trying to make in this struggling moment is maybe the most important question to dive into when you’re making those transitions. And just to build on Scott’s point, I think having outside people that can ask you the questions to really surface what is that progress for you is actually maybe the most important thing because we’re often, we’re almost always unaware of what the job to be done is for ourselves. We sort of act in these subconscious ways, if you will. And so if you ask someone, you know, what are you trying to do, or why did you buy this particular product, or why did you make this resource allocation choice in your life or whatever else, you’re going to get an answer that’s either an outright lie or frankly masks the truth. But having outside people that can actually see the patterns, the choices that you’re in fact making and help bring those insights to life, I think is one of the most important things you can invest in to help clarify what does progress look like for me and then be able to adjust course in that quarterly look as Scott was saying. Just two quick examples of that. For me, my calendar is the biggest way I can control that. Right. So I frustrate a lot of people I work with.But Thursday for me is a no meeting day for the most part. It’s a writing day because otherwise I don’t allocate time to it. In the course of the week, too many things bubble up, if you will, that just constantly compete for time and feel urgent, even if they’re not the most important thing. And then the second one, I’ll just tell you from the outside perspective, I could tell you a couple stories on this, but my wife and I, when we got married, actually we wrote our wedding vows and we wrote that a deliberate strategy to continue to invest in each other would be a critical part of the life that we were choosing to live. We looked out at Clay, obviously, when we both said that line and smiled at him. But the reason I say that is actually she and I will connect every so often and make sure I am still allocating the time that I need to to you and to the kids and making sure that we’re living that deliberate strategy that we wanted to. And she has full permission to call me on it when I have not successfully done it.But that helps me figure out right in these points changes, these navigation. As you’re switching career, you’re switching a job or you’re adding a new gig or embarking on school, is this really actually carrying us toward where we are trying to go as a unit and we’re not going to drift apart from each other and the deliberate strategy that we’ve identified is so important to us. In addition to being Good Friday, it’s also Passover, which is a holiday that I celebrate. And there’s this concept in Judaism of Kadosh that you can make something holy by setting it apart. And so that’s how I see it really, is that she’s helping me set apart that relationship to make sure that we’re continually investing in it.VictorI love that. And thanks for sharing that story from your wedding. That’s amazing. And next, I would love to open up the floor to questions from our audience. We’d love to either start with, anyone want to unmute themselves or you can put your question in the chat. All right, go ahead. Lalith.PavniHey, first of all, thank you so much for this session. I’m Pavni and I’m sorry for not enabling my video. I’m putting my 8 year old to bed. It’s 9pm in India and hey Michael, so good to see you. Alam from hugsy here from 2025 life. But yeah, so much wisdom. I’m trying to still process both the books like I’ve read Job Moves and then How You Measure Your Life. I mean life changing books for me.But one question is that, I mean, this is truly what I’ve been grappling with after I read the book when I was making my career choices, trying to change jobs and you know, make those decisions. Honestly, after Harvard, I feel that I’m in a privileged position to make those kind of decisions. Like how I would choose my time, allocate my time, where do I spend it? But before that, when I was working with the government, working 12 hours a day, I honestly felt that I didn’t have that privilege. So do you think I’ve been thinking about it, is there a play of power and privilege and does it mean that only when you get to a certain point in life you have the power to make these decisions and arrive at these mindsets or is it something that you can start very early in your life? I mean, I’m happy if any of the panelists could answer those questions, no preference here.Michael HornI can give a quick lightning round answer and I suspect Scott and Karen have thought about this a lot as well. The one quick thing I would say is I think at any juncture of life, whether you have lots of income, little income, lots of power, if you will, in a society, or little, you’re always making trade offs between competing interests. And the question is, what are those trade offs you’re willing to make and what are the things you’re willing to say? I’m not going to invest my time in that today because, you know, of the circumstances in which I am. And so a lot of people, you know, have said to me, oh, you know, it’s, it’s all well and good to figure out your progress when you’re, you know, in a particular situation. But if I’m working three jobs and just, I need that paycheck, right, for these reasons, and even though there you’re still making trade offs around, okay, what amount of salary am I going to take and what is the trade off in other parts of my life? And so the trade offs may be different, but I guarantee you there’s no one at any part of our society that has a completely frictionless experience where they’re not making trade offs. And if they do, I would argue that they’re probably not particularly happy because I actually think life comes from working through these struggles. The purpose actually makes it worth the struggles, make it worth living, I guess is what I would say. That’s part of the fun of life.Scott AnthonyAnd I just built out of what Michael would say, just a personal example. So after I graduated from undergraduate, I spent a couple years as a consultant at McKinsey and Company. And you know, it’s a big company then, even bigger company now, and I was a peon, the lowest of the low. But still there are opportunities to set decision rules. So one that I said is, I know this job, it demands a lot out of me and I’m here, I want to do it. However, I’m 21 years old, so at 5 o’ clock on Friday I’m turning off and going to a place where I can enjoy myself. Five o’ clock on Saturday, I’m doing the same thing. Do what you want the rest of the week.But those are two things that I’m going to hold a sacrosanct. And I did. And then after the McKinsey experience, I said to myself, look, when you are a cog in a really big organization, there’s just limits to the degrees of freedom that you’re ever going to have. Which is one reason why the idea in 2003 of joining the very small team at Innosight was so attractive. There are downsides of being in a smaller organization, but there’s the ability then to be much more conscious and purposeful in your trade offs. And yes, it is absolutely true. There’s a lot of privilege behind the story, no doubt about it at all. But in those moments, the micro moment and the deciding what path I’m going to go on, there’s the ability to shape and have intentionality in it.Karen DillonI think I just weigh in with one thing. I agree with what they both said completely. I know it does sometimes sound like, oh, easy for you. Again, easy for you to say. Maybe you’re in the financial position to do this. What I would say is the longer you wait to try to course correct or get that right or struggle with those trade offs, the harder it will be because they become baked into your life. So I made dramatic changes in my life in my 40s. Maybe I should have done that in my 20s so I didn’t have to do such a dramatic thing in my 40s to kind of really repurpose my whole life.Making better daily choicesKaren DillonBut I just would say all of us, every single one of us, make discretionary choices with our time every day. Yes, you have to do your job. Yes, you have to do whatever it is to put food on the table to maintain your everyday life. But I know deep down in our hearts, each of us knows the discretionary choice we made to scroll a few more minutes on the phone or sit in the car finishing a podcast. I’ve done that too and not go into the house quite yet, or not get around to doing something. We all have some ability to control the choices we make on a daily basis. And when you think about it that way, you can even make some small changes that will help you get to the trade offs that are going to make you happier in the long run, rather than waiting until you’re really far down your life where maybe you haven’t invested in the rest of your life in the right way.You don’t have the relationships, you don’t have the friendships, you don’t have interests outside of work and family, which maybe is growing up. It’s really important investment to make all along your life, not waiting till someday when you’ll finally get to it.MartinAnd Karen, thank you so much for sharing that. I just mentioned something, you know, a question that came in earlier kind of like popped into my mind and I was like, I’d like to pick your brain on that and any other person on the panel can share. But you mentioned course correcting, right. So what would you say are some of the tools or some of the, you know, means you’ve used to recover when you do realize that your life is getting out of alignment?Karen DillonSo I’m going to tell you what I did, which I don’t recommend, but it worked out really well for me. I was actually the editor of Harvard Business Review at the time. When I first started working with Clay again in my mid-40s on what became the article How Will You Measure Your Life In Harvard Business Review and ultimately the book. And when he and I talked about resource allocation, that totally caused me to rethink my life. And I was really afraid that I was going to not know my own children very well when they went off in the world. My kids were about 8 and 9 at the time. And long story short, with a lot of thought and deliberation, I resigned as the editor of Harvard Business Review. And kind of with my husband, we rebuilt our life on different priorities.Deciding personal commitmentsKaren DillonI ended up doing lots of really wonderful work with Clay. So I didn’t stop working. I just worked differently. You don’t have to do that, but you do have to take the time to decide what are the commitments you’re making to yourself. Forget, in a way, pleasing everybody else in the world, we’re all probably better at trying to keep our commitments to other people. But what are the commitments you’re gonna make to yourself? And if you don’t make those commitments to yourself, Clay would say, you’re bobbing around in a sea like you’ll just go wherever the currents take you. And I think even taking the time to do that was a dramatic change in my life. What do I actually wanna commit to? I’ll tell you the single biggest change I made in my life.Well, in addition to quitting my job, the everyday changes. I actually once wrote an article for Harvard Business Review called Confessions of an Unrepentant BlackBerry Addict. That was the time when blackberries were dominant and I thought it was the greatest tool ever. And I figured out a way I could sneakily put it on top of the television and I could see the light when an email came in. I could get up and check my email and nobody in my family would notice. When I realized the signal of my research allocation process to my family, I chose. I made the commitment to myself to be present with the people in my life.So I’m looking you in the eye when I’m talking to you. And my phone I’m not trying to sneak and scroll, and I’m not just relaxing or just one more minute. That just changed my relationship with my kids in a really great way. They knew, like, I know my children now they’re in their 20s, but I know them well and they know me and they know that they matter to me. And I realized the signals I was sending by just the thing I thought I was very sneakily doing. It’s so simple.But I think it’s a catalytic thing, and it doesn’t take a lot of different time. You can put that down, go look in the other room at the moment when you need to. But when you’re present with someone, be present with them.Scott AnthonyIf I could just quickly build on that. So we have a family device. We got the brick device, which some of you might have heard about, where you can essentially deactivate your phone for a period of time. And no family meals until you go and brick your phone so we can make sure that we’re all present. The other thing, Karen, you said, that really struck me, this idea of, say you did the big, bold thing, which is quit and start. So I joined Innosight in 2003, 2007, I announced I was going to leave. It took me 15 years before I actually did that.For a variety of reasons. But you know, somewhere along the way I said, I want to do something different. It’s hard to go left, right, do something completely different. Herminia Ibarra, in the book Act Like a Leader, Think Like a Leader, has really good advice. She says, flirt with your future self. So go and find low risk experiments where you can go and try something out to see what it’s like. For me, I kind of had a sense I wanted to teach. It’s a big change to go from consulting to teaching.But it’s easy to go and give a guest lecture or go and run a single seminar or run a webinar. And when you go and do one, you say, okay, I like this. I didn’t like that. The ability or the opportunity to run low risk experiments is a really good thing that can help you then say, all right, I now have enough data to suggest this is really what I want to do. And Herminia Ibarra’s stuff is really, really helpful on this topic.VictorI love that, being an innovator. I think big part of it is have the design thinking hat empathize with different scenarios, possibilities. Anyone else have any questions? We have three minutes left. We’d love to address more questions.Scott AnthonySo, yeah, but there have been a couple other tools have been put in the chat. But Andrew’s question I thought was a juicy one.MartinYou guys worked with Clay a lot. What would you think Clay would have thought about AI and how it relates and how it relates to the questions posed, and how will you measure your life?Michael HornWho wants to go first?Scott AnthonyI do have an answer to it, so it’s not fair to ask, but I’ll give a short answer again. You know, so in How Will You Measure Your Life, I talked about the Ship of Theseus paradox, the idea that you bring a boat into harbor, you remove piece by piece, and ultimately, is it still the Ship of Theseus? And he used that as a metaphor for if you’re outsourcing the development of your children to lots of different places, are they still your children? I think he would use the same thing to talk about artificial intelligence. There’s an emerging framework from a few academies that there’s a few different archetypes of how you use artificial intelligence. There’s cyborg, where you fuse the AI into what you do. There’s a centaur, the body of a horse, the head of a human. You divide the tasks. And there’s the chauffeur. I’m just going to get in the back and let AI take me anywhere.When you do that, you have lost something really important. And that’s what I see a lot of our students doing. They say it’s so easy just to do that. I say, well, you’re never going to learn how to drive if you never take the wheel. And I think Clay would ponder the ship of Theseus paradox and AI. There’s a lot more he would say about it. But that one thing I think really struck me with your question. Great question.Michael HornKaren, you want to jump in orKaren DillonI’ll just. I’ll disagree with that. Basically. I do think that one of the chapters of the book is about the schools of experience that help you become the professional you want to become, and probably personally as well. And I do think that’s the struggle. AI obviously, is an amazing tool. It has lots of good applications, and I am a fan of AI in some.Some places. But what Scott said, what are you missing? When you’re not going through the struggle to make sense of something or to learn something or to have a setback and figure out your path forward, but AI is solving it for you. You’re not getting those critical thinking skills. And I think that can be very powerful. And there are all kinds of moral implications in How Will I Stay out of Jail? The last chapter of the last section of How Will You Measure Life from AI that I think we as a society still have to struggle with.Michael HornAndrew, I would say, obviously Julia Freeland Fisher, who you know well, has been writing a lot about. Right. The dangers of outsourcing your friendships and relationships to AI. I’ll go a slightly different direction, which is, I think from a jobs to be done perspective. We talk about any job having functional, emotional and social dimensions to it. I suspect we’re going to be using AI a lot for the functional ones. I think the mistakes we will make are when we outsource the emotional and social aspects of those struggles to AI and we don’t get.Look, AI has built itself on a couple dimensions of the human experience, largely language and sight. It has not done huge swaths of what makes us human. And that’s how we connect with each other, which sends unbelievable feedback loops of positivity to us that we don’t even still understand the full mechanisms of. If we’re avoiding that, I think that gets into what Scott was saying as well.VictorYeah, I love that. Michael, what you just said reminded me of the longest running study on happiness. A Harvard study of adult development. They find that the strong positive relationships are the primary driver of lifelong health and happiness more than anything else. So I think in the age of AI and especially what we’re talking about today, relationships with family, with kids, with spouse is so important. With that, I love to conclude our conversation. Thank again, so, so much to Michael, Karen, Scott for jumping in and super excited for the dialogue that will continue after the conversation. And so thank you so much, everyone.The Future of Education is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit michaelbhorn.substack.com/subscribe

March 23, 20261 hr 0 min

Predictions Galore: What's Ahead in 2026 and Grades for 2025

Yet another episode where I crash someone else’s podcast!James Cryan, CEO and founder of Willow Education, invited me back on his podcast for his excellent Substack, Purposeful Paths, to reflect on my predictions from last year and to make forecasts for the coming year.Our conversation dove deep into topics like the slow momentum of apprenticeships in non-traditional sectors, increased emphasis on experiential and work-based learning, pressure mounting on traditional colleges amid demographic changes, and the realities behind skills-based hiring. We discussed policy shifts, the impact of AI on career readiness, the role of community colleges, and potential regulations around social media and AI for young people. A lot in other words.But most importantly, perhaps, we held ourselves accountable for our predictions last year. Check out how we graded ourselves and let us know your thoughts—and predictions.The Future of Education is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Michael HornIf you’ve ever been annoyed by people who make predictions about what’s to come in the year ahead around January in education, and then don’t hold themselves to account for the predictions that they made, this conversation is for you. Look, I know a lot of you have probably been annoyed with me over the years because I love making those predictions often. But in this conversation, James Cryan, the CEO and founder of Willow Education, holds me to account. This comes on the heels of a conversation that the two of us had last year where we went over predictions we had for 2025. And in this conversation that you’re about to hear, recorded with a group of other people on a webinar that James hosted me for, we go over those predictions from 2025 and give ourselves some grades. I’ll give you a quick heads up. I was overly harsh, I think, on my results. I think I did actually all right overall.And then we talked about some predictions to come for 2026. See what you think. Can’t wait to hear from you and enjoy the conversation.James CryanWell, let’s get started. This should be fun. Michael, thank you for joining me again. You’re— I think I told you this, but you’re our first ever repeat guest. No one will ever be the first ever repeat guest to the—Michael HornOh yeah, that’s pretty good. Okay.James CryanVirtual Conversation Series. So kudos. Kudos to you for that accomplishment. I hope that comes to the top of your resume quite quickly. If folks don’t know Michael, A, I’d be surprised. And B, Michael, you’re just one of the most forward-thinking, prolific thinkers about the future of education and workforce and keeping on top of all the trends, research, and people and companies who are doing really interesting and fun work trying to transform education for the better in our country. So thank you for joining us. And if you don’t know me, my name is James and I’m the CEO and founder of Willow Education.We are a career readiness platform and curriculum that school districts use to support their young people in developing purpose, in exploring and experiencing different careers and work-based learning opportunities, and then making a high-quality post-secondary plan. And our big innovation, and it’s kind of silly to call it an innovation, but we’ve got two innovations. One is we are highly opinionated about the quality of next steps and programs when we project a personalized ROI for each young person. And two is we serve all students. We serve the kids who are going to college like everybody does, and we also serve the students who choose not to go to college after high school, which right now very few forums and curricula do. And so that’s kind of the day job, and the fun part of my job is I get to have conversations with leading thinkers like Michael on what is, what can we do to realize the American dream in our country? What can we do to make sure that everyone who works hard has the opportunity to have a good life, meaningful work, buy a house, raise kids in the city? Not, not many of my students in Denver were able to do that through the current post-secondary pathways that exist today. And so we need to do a much better job at both preparing them for what programs are working and preparing them to have the skills to do so. And so, Michael, last year I asked you to come on and make some predictions and share your thinking about what you expected for the year ahead.So we’ll start there with your predictions from last year and give you some grades on those. And then we’ll move into predictions that each of us have for this coming year, and we haven’t shared notes and so it’s gonna be a live conversation. And I think I’ve made at least one prediction that I know you disagree with, so I’m gonna be excited to dig into that with you.Michael HornAwesome. Okay, that sounds juicy, and I like that we’re doing this. I’m going to confess I’ve done a lot less thinking about the year ahead, and I was super nervous about what I said last year and so I think I hold up better than I thought, but we’ll, we’ll see how people feel as you go through it.James CryanWell, I gave you some grades this morning. I was preparing as well. And I think that there’s a risk that, uh, you weren’t bold enough in your predictions. So I’ll encourage that for this coming year.Michael HornFair enough. Fair enough. Good.James CryanSo, anything to add at the get-go? Anything I missed from your, your story and your bio that you’d like to—Michael HornNo, I mean, I’m excited for the conversation. Last year when we were all talking around, it was a great group and we got into a really interesting conversation around Career Connected Learning for all, and really the notion that CTE or voctech, as it were, was historically a tracked thing and more that this is a menu, right? And a set of experiences we want all students to have so that they can make an informed choice around, is it college when you leave high school, is it something else? And that they understand what that means for them and their likely path. And it’s not something that sounds good on paper, but that they actually really understand what that’s gonna look like, right, in the journey ahead. And we want a lot more individuals having that set of experiences. So it was a really interesting conversation. I changed my language, uh, around the space because of some of the contributions from folks. So I’m excited to dig in again.James CryanAbsolutely. And that’s a good reminder, for some norms here, the risk of webinars, or my preferred language virtual conversations, is that they’re boring.. And I get the need to grab lunch and maybe go off video, but I encourage everyone to like, let’s make this a conversation. Let’s have fun and dig in together because we’ll have a richer and more fun, engaging learning experience if we do so. And that was the case last year.James CryanSo Michael, last year you made 4 predictions. That there would be growing momentum for apprenticeships, particularly in non-traditional sectors like healthcare.The second prediction was there’d be an increased focus on work-based experiential learning at all education levels. Number 3, less linear education to career pathways would become the norm. And number 4, there’d be continued pressure on traditional colleges as students seek alternatives. Let’s take those one at a time. Growing momentum for apprenticeships, particularly in non-traditional sectors. What grade would you give yourself here, Michael?Forward– But Moderate –Momentum on ApprenticeshipsMichael HornI honestly, I think it was, I would put it not an A, if you will, on this one. Like it was, I think it was less momentum than I expected. If you count the January Department of Labor adding the, what is it, the $145 million in funding for pay for performance, if you count that in 2025, I look a lot better on this one, but I would say by and large momentum along this axis, James, at least my take is that it was more talk than action in ‘25 and that it did not materialize the way I thought that there could be some bipartisan opportunities on this. So, you know, I frankly coming into this, I was thinking, ooh, it’s like a D. I think it’s a little bit higher than that because again, sort of the, the April executive order preparing Americans for higher pay, high-paying skilled trade jobs of the future made way for the January funding announcement. But I think we’re still talking probably like C+ or something like that is where I, is where I would grade me. What did you do on this one?James CryanC+? Okay.You were a little more negative than I was. I think it’s helpful to remember that we were expecting a lot from the incoming Trump administration when we made, when you made this prediction and thinking that there was going to be a lot of momentum out of the gate for apprenticeships. And like you named, that did not materialize. In fact, the opposite materialized. And but there’s been a correction since then and there’s been some interesting work at the state level. California announced $30 million in apprenticeship funding focused on health care and education. I think this is going to be growing, but the point you make resonates for me, that, a lot of talk and not a lot of this yet, resonates.So I had this at a B, to cut to the chase.Michael HornYeah, frankly, I was going to be at the B until, you, you sort of foreshadowed that maybe I sandbagged on the predictions a little bit, so I thought I’d go more negative on this one. I think the point being though, right, like, this is an area where there’s, you know, you Governor Newsom in California, you have the Trump administration, a lot of bipartisan interest in increasing apprenticeships, a lot of— it’s a little wonkier, but a lot of interest in apprenticeship degrees as well. And it’s not— I think, you know, $145 million, that’s a start. But if you put it in the context of how much we spend on post-secondary education in this country, even the state numbers added— and yes, Indiana has continued to make progress. And so there are some absolutely bright spots. Colorado has continued to make progress, etc. South Carolina and some other places. But by and large, I would say, you know, we are still at the fringes of tiptoeing into this world and not where I think I had expected some bigger announcements would come out.I would’ve expected as even part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act where there were some big overhauls of higher ed and really, you know, creating a new, playing field for gainful employment definition across the field in essence, I would have expected some more movement on this front and we didn’t get it.James CryanYeah. What’s the missing link here? What’s the lever that needs to be pulled? Is it just money or is it more complicated than that?Michael HornWell, that’s a good question. I mean, I do think that there is— more money is part of it, right? You need performance pay that I think follows the student into the experience and de-risks it for the employer. I think that’s a critical piece of this. But then, as you know, we’re going to have to have a lot of intermediaries build businesses and frankly, a lot of culture change around apprenticeships in general. It is interesting. I was having a conversation with someone in this movement and I sort of asked, I was like, I don’t understand why we think that industries at the moment should be registering for the federal apprenticeship because there’s no upside to doing so really, unless there is actual funding tied to it. And so from my standpoint, a lot of the stuff that’s occurring on the margins in the informal space makes a heck of a lot of sense. We don’t tend to count it, if you will, in the apprenticeship number, but I think that makes a lot of sense.But to really make it a movement, I think you need funding that makes it worth it to put up with the regulations and so forth to get into this. Otherwise, I just don’t think the incentives are there for the intermediaries to materialize. There’s a reason why Multiverse completely pivoted away, right, from their apprenticeship strategy that had been so successful in the UK when they came into the American market. What about you? Because you’re spending probably more time connected to the space.James CryanHonestly, I’m not an expert here, so I don’t know. I think the thing that scares me is the complexity and complexity without funding. It just seems hard to figure out. And if it’s not simple and clear like why employers are engaging here, and it’s actually connected to one of my predictions that I think we both agree on, then I don’t expect behaviors to shift much.Michael HornYeah. Let me say one quick thing on this, which is Ryan Craig always reminds us that in education, we tend to call them employers, but they’re really companies that happen to employ. I think it’s an important thing because when we say employers, we act like they’re mission is to employ. They employ so that they accomplish their mission. And I think sometimes we forget that human capital is, I would argue, the most important thing on their balance sheet and in their organizations. But they don’t necessarily see themselves as human capital development organizations. So to your point, complexity scares them, risk scares them. They’re going to retreat from things that aren’t obvious ROI in the short run.And I do think there’s a larger need to reduce friction to experiential learning. It’s why, you know, we like efforts like what Jeff is doing, for example, when he came on here is important, I think, to make this much easier for companies, government entities, nonprofits, whomever, right, to offer experiential learning opportunities. And there is like a finite pipeline, right, of how much you can even have in terms of how many spaces can you really absorb in a lot of these things. This is not infinite, if you will, and so there has to be a range of experiential learning opportunities offered, I think, to students.States Driving Work-Based LearningJames CryanYep, good point. Okay, let’s keep moving. Second prediction from last year: increased focus on work-based learning, experiential learning at all education levels. So it’s a pretty good segue from that last point.Michael HornYeah, I mean, obviously this was a building notion. I, you know, in terms of dramatic policy changes, not huge, but I do think in terms of momentum in the field, this was pretty good, probably a B+. You can look at Colorado and Governor Polis there. You know that state well. Executive order to, you know, really reorganize the state’s talent development system around a lot of this. Massachusetts has continued to lean into some of these areas. California, you mentioned, but they allocated an additional $64 million around CTE programs. Alabama has done a lot around this, obviously Indiana with the apprenticeships, but frankly, larger experiential learning in the other diploma that has become more concrete now for high school students.So you can look at a lot of these different states. I think there has been continued momentum and interest around this movement. And if you look at folks like the CAPS Network or places like that, they seem to be growing. I always talk to our friend Andrew Frischmann at Big Picture Learning, and I say, this is the moment your network was built for. In many ways, you guys were 25 years too early, and now is the time, right, where a lot of the things you’re doing are growing into it. And so I think those aspects are pretty exciting. And so I’d say we certainly have more room to go, but, but I think I would give it a B+. The other piece I would say is I think because of AI in the workplace, and even if frankly the pullback in entry-level hiring is overstated because of AI, as I think it is, it has caught enough people’s attention to realize schools need to be providing real-world experiences later on in the journey so that students who graduate when they’re applying to that job can say, I have 2 years of experience of X already.Right. And I think that’s a growing recognition. It almost feels like a truism now in the field, and that seems like a big plus in this favor. What about you?James CryanYeah, I agree. I had you at a B+ on this one as well, for a lot of the reasons you named. I can’t remember if it was last year or the year before that Burning Glass and Student Strada put out the Talent Disrupted report that found that college students who had an internship were almost 50% less likely to be underemployed after graduation. So many good partners on the call who are doing work in work-based learning, education to career pathways work. Dr. Danelle Letler, any additions from these first two predictions?Dr. Danelle LetlerI feel like you’re grading Michael very well. I like this. I was expecting you to be much harsher on him. Clearly, Michael, being a return guest gives you some love. Gives you some love. That’s good. Keep it going.Michael HornI was going to say either a victim or a beneficiary of grade inflation.James CryanI’ll take it. Awesome. Well, I hope— and there’s lots of other great partners on the call who do really powerful work-based learning work. We’re learning from a lot of them, including Big Picture Learning, like you named, Michael. I’m going to skip the third one because it’s very similar. Less linear education and career pathways becoming the norm. And let’s go to the fourth and last one, Michael. Continued pressure on traditional colleges as students seek alternatives.Continued Pressure on Traditional CollegesMichael HornYeah. Well, I would say I think it’s depending on whose count, you know, somewhere around 16 or so colleges closed in ‘25. You had a bunch of mergers, the merger in Pennsylvania State branch campuses, you know, fully, fully going to be happening in the year ahead. And so I would say it was a little bit less closures, I think, than the year prior, but growing. And the demographic cliff is now here. So I think we’re really about to see a lot of retreat. Obviously, in December or maybe it was November, I published that piece looking at 44 mid-sized private colleges and I’ll give this group a tease. We’ve now expanded that to roughly 315 private mid-sized colleges across the country.And so this was a group that I wasn’t thinking of originally when Clay Christensen and I made that prediction of a quarter of colleges would consolidate. I was thinking largely of the frankly small colleges under 1,000 students, the regional publics that we’ve seen merge and for-profit institutions without big brands and tuition dependent. But there’s a lot of schools, you know, 500 or 600, I think, that enroll somewhere between 1,000 and 8,000 students, very tuition dependent. A lot of them are strong brand names and they are in a world of trouble. By our estimates, a good third of them will have challenges with financial solvency over the next 5 years, call it. And so look, the overall prediction is still going in the direction. I think the world of hurt is really going to materialize over the next 3 to 5 years on this one. I’m not sure how to grade it.It’s a little bit true— I think I’ve used this prediction, frankly, like 3 different years I’ve made predictions. And every year you look pretty good on it when you look back on it because the pressures are just mounting and colleges are, look, everyone believes it’s not going to be them, that they will be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat. They won’t have to downsize. They’ll be the beneficiary of some other college closing. It’s interesting, of the 44 that we looked at in New England, 38 of them in their strategic plans list growth as their primary strategy for dealing with this. And growth ain’t going to happen for most of these places that are serving traditional age students, number one. But number two, a lot of them, I think, believed that they could launch online master’s degree programs.One of the things that came out of the one big beautiful bill, is that gravy train is done, I think, with the caps on grad— or the elimination of Grad Plus and the caps on non-professional programs and even professional programs. And so, I think if you thought you were going to just simply scale into lifelong learning through those mechanisms, that’s not not available to you anymore. You’re going to have to be a lot more innovative, which means you need to have cash on hand, I think, in many cases. so I think it’s getting bleaker, not better, for these, for, for a lot of schools that have not taken steps or thoughtfully focused in the past few years. Where do you have me on this?James CryanI give you an A- for this one. DB, I don’t know if it’s inflation or not. But, you know, one part of this prediction that I hadn’t thought through is, Michael, you and I are friends with a college president who leads a small private institution that does great work, and he’s a phenomenal leader. And over the summer, he saw a third of his freshman class make a different decision, his enrollment, just kind of cratered in that freshman year. And so as we encounter the demographic cliff, I think we’re going to see a lot more fluidity amongst institutions as they compete for students. It’s going to get pretty tough out there. And we can think about analogues from— I can, I can think of analogues from seeing declining enrollment in K-12 scenarios and how students move between different K-12 options. That’s interesting.The competitive pressures that exist there.Michael HornAnd I will say that same friend of ours without naming, I would say, you know, one of the things that we talked about was he was saying like, I have to have an English department, but no one majors like 2 people major in English a year, if that. Right. And, and I was like, you know, this is where I think course sharing, like people say, what are measures short of consolidation, what can I do? And this is a place where I’d say tenure makes this hard in many cases, but I don’t know that I would be carrying a full roster of faculty members in particular departments that are under-enrolled. And I would still make those classes available through partnerships with other schools that have similar mission focuses and things like that using online. That seems like, you know, to really downsize and focus on the things that make you valuable and differentiated. And I think they have a very good value proposition in a lot of things, which is something that I would be wielding a little bit more aggressively to right-size the cost structure of some of these schools. Because I do think if you could reduce some overhead costs, use AI to become more efficient on some of those, and then focus a little bit more academically and stop treating those as fixed costs. It’s a way to, it’s a way to deal with a very different environment.But look, higher ed’s never— none of the leaders in higher ed in our world have ever managed in a time of shrinkage, right? It’s been growth, since at least 1965, and arguably since the GI Bill, right?James CryanYeah.Michael HornSo they just haven’t managed, you know, they’ve had 2-year blips, right? But they’ve never seen a 15-year trend line, a structural one that’s about to come out.James CryanYeah, yeah, it will be interesting and challenging, I’m sure. Okay, well, let’s turn our attention to this year.Michael HornYeah, do you want to start with yours? Let’s start with yours. Yeah, okay, so I’m admitting I’ve done less homework on this. Yeah, okay.Entry-Level Hiring ChallengesJames CryanWell, I’ll start with my first one, and I’m very curious how you see this. I think the entry-level labor market is going to get worse, not better. I think there’s a lot of attention on AI’s impact in the entry-level labor market, and I think we can find data that supports that conclusion. I think what we don’t talk enough about is that the economic uncertainty and trade policy contexts that all companies are existing within right now is having a significant impact on the labor market. And then secondly, just especially with tech companies, they’ve learned that they can continue to thrive and grow with fewer people, which some is somewhat AI related but is not entirely AI related. So I would expect that the entry-level labor market is going to get worse over this next year. I’m sad about that and it makes all the work-based learning and career readiness, uh, conversations all the more pressing and important from my perspective.Michael HornI completely agree on this. In some ways, I think debating the causes distracts from the headline, which is right, that entry-level hiring is, as we’ve known it, is shrinking. The expectation increasingly is that someone coming in as an entry-level employee is performing at year 2, 3, right? If someone in the industry, which requires a set of experiences, requires a certain understanding of cultural norms. This is where the durable skills conversation enters the picture, etc., etc. I think all those things become more important. And, you know, people sort of throw up their hands and say, how are companies expecting to fill their talent pipelines? And look, from my perspective, this is something that favors those that are well off and have good social capital, which is why education organizations need to provide this, because otherwise this is a clear opportunity where people will get left out of the equation and it will be on very unsavory lines that this— that people get left out. And so I completely agree with the observation. I do think, for what it’s worth, that the macro environment is a big piece of this.And the other one I’ll add is I think there was a lot of overhiring during the pandemic for tech in particular. It makes up less of a share of, you know, labor than people sometimes think. But look, if AI, if some of the circular nature of this, if that dries up in any way, if there’s any sort of a bust there, I don’t think that’s going to happen in the next 12 months. But I suspect it will happen at some point. That’s going to be a crushing blow to the entry-level employee, even more so than what we’ve seen.James CryanYeah, I totally agree. Some, some room for optimism. We do see entry-level roles growing in low AI exposure fields like healthcare, skilled trades, specialized services right now, and I would expect that to continue. The other thing we’re talking a lot about internally at Willow is AI fluency is career readiness at this point. I can never imagine hiring someone without an expertise of how to use AI tools and a deep desire to learn and get better quickly with those tools. And so that’s something we’re thinking about— how are we integrating that into our curriculum with our partners.Michael HornMakes a lot of sense. Makes a lot of sense. And I think you’re seeing, in a good way, like Purdue, other places, right, requiring AI to be part of the graduates portfolio in a variety of ways. And I think that’s a positive trend. Pace University is another one that’s done this, like at different ends of the higher ed spectrum. I think schools that lean into this as opposed to run away from it will be— that’ll be important. And I guess I’d say like there’s this whole education policy debate of banning AI completely from schools and things, right? Sort of the Andy Smarick view. My own take is like, this is the classic DC Beltway wishing things were different.And the reality is that first job, they’re not like thinking about, is AI taking cognitive load off or not? They want to know, can you use it to be better at your job? And so In particular, it might be worth scaling AI back in certain academic applications, but in terms of a tool to do real-world work better and learning how to integrate it, it seems like this has to be a big piece of what— of the curriculum as we develop.James CryanYeah, absolutely. And I said we’re talking about it and thinking about how to integrate it. And then I recalled that Jamie earlier today, we’ve built out an AI fluency quest, which is what we call mini units. And we were piloting it with one partner and a different partner heard about it and called and said, hey, we want to pilot that too. So they’re already— it’s already live in classrooms today with some of our partners. You know, you know, I live in Middlebury, Vermont. And so every year, even though I didn’t get into Middlebury when I was applying to college, I still leave the campus and lecture in their entrepreneurship class each year. So I did that a couple of weeks ago and some students asked like, what should we do? What should we do to get ready for jobs? And, you know, how should we be thinking about AI? My advice, and I’m curious if it resonates for you, was to use it every day.Use it to think harder. Don’t use it to cheat. Like, think— use it to think harder and learn stuff and then use it to build stuff.. And that was kind of my simplistic, simplistic take on how we’re framing and thinking about how people can prepare to be successful in this context.Michael HornYeah. One of my former students, he graduated last year from the ed school at Harvard. He started a couple AI companies in the last 12 months.James CryanAs you do.Michael HornAnd as, as you do. One, he was actually, it’s featured in my Substack yesterday that went out, this M7E thing that basically will help curriculum publishers make sure that the text around math problems are not interfering with multilingual learners’ ability to access the actual mathematics so that you’re actually testing their comprehension skills or verbal skills as opposed to the math that you’re trying to do. It’s a very interesting application. But he wrote a book which he’s going to self-publish. And what’s interesting is the big argument he makes is that the way you learn in the future and test hypotheses is by building. And because AI has made it so simple, the reflection I had when I finished reading it was, man, like I’ve always said, I write to figure out what I think about something. But here he’s making the argument, in fact, you should build to figure out what you think about something because you are going to get so many feedback loops about where your thinking is wrong. Whereas like in writing, you can construct these nice, you know, it’s hard to, you know, it forces you to deal with logical fallacies in your argument, but not necessarily how that confronts the real world.And building something will do that. And I thought, That’s very interesting that building is how you learn about a problem and think through something. And a bit of a pushback on those like me who’ve said, ah, writing is how you think about something.James CryanSo I love that. I think I’m a little bit old school with you that I kind of don’t fully internalize and learn something until I’m writing about it, which is why I try and carve out the time monthly-ish to write my Substack. And, you know, in our product meetings, 6 months ago, we would look at Figma designs for how we were thinking about new features. And today we look at prototypes that are interactive and you play with and we get feedback from our educators and our counselors and our students on it.Michael HornExactly. You test your assumptions in real time. Life is not always rational, right? There’s emotional and social reasons that people like or don’t like something, and you learn from it in the real world. I think it’s a really interesting— I’m sure there are a certain set of problems that are better for building, and there are a certain set of problems— like, there’s a circumstance context thing here, I suspect, but I haven’t thought that through yet. The point being, the barriers to building are much lower, and that is an opportunity for learning, I think, is a huge point that I had not thought about.James CryanHmm. I love that. Okay. Do you have one that you want to share?Regulations, Licensure, and Workforce BottlenecksMichael HornI was going to say to go a totally different direction, which is I’m going to do a classic sort of canary in the coal mine argument, which is that because of the new regulations around these gainful employment measures and so forth, that effectively, as I see it, are going to mean that cosmetology schools, So I’m going very specific part of the economy. Effectively, almost none of them are going to be allowed anymore under federal financial aid rules. They’re all going to fail the earnings test, I believe, or do you make at least what a high school graduate does? And as a result of that, my take is that states are going to have to radically rethink licensure for those roles if they want to not have a dramatic shortage in that profession. Now, here’s the question that I don’t have the crystal ball on. I think they ought to be also having these conversations in health jobs and nursing and like figure out ways to unstick the bottleneck that has occurred in training and practicums and things of that nature in those professions. And they haven’t really done it. Will this, you know, be sort of such an obvious new area that it’s the regulation that is now creating the bottleneck, that it will force a conversation to be had in some measure? Or will, like, we just accept that there’s no new people getting trained or that they’re self-paying, right, into these licensures? I don’t know the answer to that, but I think it’s going to force a conversation. And I think the ripple effect of that would be healthy across states that have created increasing numbers of certification requirements to practice certain fields that probably not all of them need those regulations and requirements in place.James CryanFascinating. It’ll be like primary care doctors where there’s not enough residencies.Michael HornAnd so, yeah, exactly. I mean, right there, it’s a constraint in terms of supply, right, of places to pump through. Alison Salisbury just did a fantastic set of work around some of these shortages in the nursing space, for example. Look, you don’t expect, nor do you want, I think, licensure rules to go away for nurses and doctors. But I think a dramatic rethinking in some of these other fields like cosmetology would be welcome. So, and there’s a whole bevy of them in lots of industries that have held up hiring and created these shortages. And I suspect we’re overdue for a pruning of those regs or rethinking of them.Gainful Employment MeasuresJames CryanWell, personally, I hope you’re right because those are not worker-friendly regulations in how they show up. And cosmetology schools, I forget if it’s 91 or 92% of the time, have a negative ROI on the investment, which is why they’re not holding up to the gainful employment laws. Are you bullish on the gainful employment exercise?Michael HornNet-net, I think it’s a positive step forward. I’m with Phil Hill, that I think regionality as opposed to state-level metrics would have been a better idea so that we acknowledge the variance, if you will, of salaries in a rural part of the state versus an urban part, for example. Right. And so the blunt tax has been a little bit too blunt. I wish out of gainful employment— I get why they did one regulation to harmonize with one big beautiful bill. I think if it were me on the— like I had my druthers, I like an ROI focus on things. And so I would like a return on the investment, not just like a minimum floor that you have to clear, so I prefer— I didn’t love debt being the only part of the investment equation.Like I would actually go further than that and look all in cost and I would do it both with the government dollars and with the self dollars, but, you know, so I would probably go more, but Net-net, I think this is a positive step that we’re taking toward a do-no-harm stance. Yep. What about you?James CryanYeah, I agree with all that. What you described for the ROI calculation is exactly how we do our personalized ROI projections on our platform for students, is we project their net costs and then take a 10-year view of will they be better off 10 years later or not, if they graduate from the program.Michael HornWhich I think is the right way to think about it. Look, let the families decide. I don’t have to optimize for, you know, ROI per se, but if it’s negative and I’m not in a family circumstance where that makes sense for us, like, that’s a severe red flag that I would steer away from.Social Capital Driving Hiring TrendsJames CryanYeah. Yeah. Our belief is informed choice and, and a value of being honest with young people. Because they don’t have that data and information today when they’re making decisions. All right. Prediction number 2 from me. Our chat’s a little quiet.I would invite folks into the conversation. So, and feel free to come off mute. This is the one I know we agree on. So maybe a little less exciting. All right. I’m pretty sure we agree on. I think skills-based hiring is going to face a kind of more public reckoning this year. We know that it is not working in practice.It’s a lot of lip service. It’s not a lot of behavior change. Only 1 out of 700 hires benefited from skills-based hiring practices from Burning Glass Institute. Like, I’m fairly smart. I just— it’s too hard. It’s too complicated. And the incentives don’t align for employers or companies, to your earlier points. And it’s like the right aims and the right goals but it is— you said like this is too wonky.There’s a group of funders and policymakers who got together to say, this is a real problem, like, wouldn’t it be great if this world existed? And it would be great, but it just doesn’t.Michael HornYeah, I’m 100% with you. And I think on the show last year, I came out very hard against this practice because it’s divorced from reality in my view. And then I used the transcript of that to write a piece about why I thought that.James CryanSo thank you. Oh, really? Oh, cool.Michael HornYeah, I missed that one. So, I mean, look, I have the same view. I think this bleeds into another prediction that I made last year that I think will be even more true this year, which is social capital is going to gain in importance for hiring. Based on the conversations that I’m having, there was a huge leap last year in applications for job openings, and it’s gone up even higher now. AI is just making that harder and harder, and people are more and more looking at their network to find qualified individuals that they believe actually have the background and experiences. Look, I know a lot of people say, look, AI is going to solve large parts of this and create a realistic skills-based hiring. I just continue not to see it at the moment. And so I continue to be skeptical.This, this is one of mine, frankly, as well. So we’re on the same— this one we can line up and say. Now, last year, I think I said experience-based hiring would increase. Mm-hmm. Not sure that has happened as I would think about it. I think more people are thinking about what that might look like. I think we need more maturation of the experiential learning we just talked about on the education side for that to become any sort of reality.James CryanYeah, agreed. Okay, so we’ll call that one shared prediction number 2. That last year, I feel like when we talked about this, it was a little bit kind of quiet, like, I don’t really think this is working. Like, do you— like, what are you seeing? And I think this year we’re gonna get even more public with it, and I think maybe Um, it’ll be interesting to see where we go from here. I just want to call out Jeff in the chat. Um, yeah, important counterexamples of where this is needed. Uh, one is like the tightest labor markets, like healthcare, um, skilled trades, uh, veterans, and how to qualify and understand veteran skills and through their experience, I think is a super important application of this work. Uh, Jeff, you want to speak any more to that?Bridging Gaps with Task-Specific Skills TrainingJeffSo yeah, we actually just started, at the beginning of the— well, actually last quarter of last year started testing. We now send all of the participants to any of the lab programs, whether they’re directly operated by us or like the Vanguard Rising program is a branded solution that we run for the Ascend Collective to kind of meet their target audience where they are. But we’ve started sending all of our participants, and where their approach to skills-based hiring is kind of our approach to kind of helping close the gap that you were talking about with the government coming in and kind of supplying and supporting the apprenticeship programs is we’ve looked beyond the government to solve this problem, and we’re looking to the people who are really suffering the most, which happens to be businesses, to solve the problem by saying, look, we know you have an internal learning and development program that you spend a lot of money in once you hire people, and that traditionally you may have relied on education to prepare them before you ever hire them.Clearly, the gap between education and employment has grown. The gap between, you know, employment and workforce development has grown. The gap between, you know, community economic growth and workforce development and employment has grown.So we have developed a system that kind of sits at that juncture and kind of brings those parties together where it’s like, send us your people who need their training, bring us the work that you need them to get trained on. We’ll give them the durable skills training that industry is spending billions of dollars on, lean system thinking, how to automate, all these things that in my professional career I did for 25 years, right? This is what industries are training in their learning and development programs.The fact that no one’s teaching it in education was a shock to me. The fact that education teaches these behaviors out of our students was a bigger shock to me.Michael HornThanks, Jeff. I think, Jeff, it’s a great set of points. What seems critical there, right, is you’re training on the actual tasks that people right and, and work that they would be doing. I think part of the challenge on the skills-based hiring movement is we’re not sure what it means, right, a lot of times, right? So you called that a skill. I think for a lot of people, they’re like, oh no, the skill is like learning how to think critically. I don’t know what that means. It’s like, it’s very different from context to context, right? And so you used a phrase, durable skills, for that. I think most people would call that, you know, of those fields.And people use durable skills differently in many cases.JeffSo we actually, we don’t in our context. Durable skills are the critical thinking, systems thinking, the things that regardless of the industry, the sector, the role I go into, everybody needs to learn how to do. How do I collaborate? How do I take a complex problem and start breaking it down into small little pieces so that although I can’t figure out every step, I can figure out the next couple of steps, which when dealing in complex problem solving, I need to be able to move, sense, adapt, and then plan. Different set of skills.But we’re also having students come in and go through a program where they learn those durable skills, but they’re going on to be electricians, plumbers, right, because those skills— doesn’t matter if you’re sitting behind a keyboard, you’re sitting behind a steering wheel, you’re sitting behind a forklift, it doesn’t matter. You need these regardless of where you go.And then we back them and wrap them in professional certifications that we give the participants as they head out the door so that the employer can see, you know, we connected in an LER record. They can actually see the work that was doneMichael HornWell, and that’s the critical piece I think that you’re doing, ‘cause I will confess, I am much more skeptical that those teaching of skills transfers between different domains unless you’ve done the domain training. My read of the evidence is consistently that they don’t transfer. And so that’s why I think you being able to wrap it in a context makes it valuable. And then look, if I’m able to take that and learn something new and be able to use that process fantastic, right? That’s the ideal. Most experiences don’t do that well. And so when we use the word critical thinking, of course it shows up in every industry’s job application. It’s sort of a truism.Of course I want people who think critically on the job, but how I think critically in one environment manifests quite differently in another. And so that seems to be the magic to me of pairing it.The Role of Community CollegesJames CryanYeah. Great, great addition. Thanks so much, Jeff. Thanks for your important work in South Carolina. And connecting to Sophia’s question here around community colleges, how do they fit into the future of education and purposeful pathways? You know, Jeff, when I heard you describe your work, I thought of the Education Design Lab, which partners with community colleges around the country to work with employers and students and educators to align what student— what programs are being offered and what students are learning to real-world needs in the local labor market. Love it, Jeff.Michael HornI’ll say just to Sophia’s question, I think actually community colleges are extremely in the conversation at the moment in the sense that, again, the short-term workforce Pell conversation just dramatically brought them in with a funding pathway for these short-term certificates that are 8 to 15 weeks. So I think they’re, they’re being brought in in a dramatic way. I do think community colleges, they have 3 competing missions as I see it. One is academic transfer, a second is the workforce engine, and the third is sort of general community enrichment. And my read is that all those missions are not complementary. They actually work against each other in optimization.And I think more community colleges need to make a clear bet on one of them. The workforce is where I would make it. But, but that actually means, you know, college gen ed English is not going to be as important. That’s a very— that’s a big design decision, right? That has a big impact. And I think it, a lot of community colleges struggle to optimize on the workforce piece of this because they’re sort of having these priorities play off each other as opposed to clear optimization. And that’s why I think the outcomes are not what we would hope for from a lot of community colleges.James CryanCan I have an honest admission, a moment of kind of vulnerability here? I really struggle to think about the answer to your question, Sophia. I— the completion rates of community college programs are so abysmal, I have a hard time recommending students that they pursue those as next steps. Usually that’s not true for every community college system, obviously, but the majority of time that’s true. And on the other hand, two-thirds of students from low-income households that are enrolled in higher education are in a community college. So they’re obviously serving such a huge equity function for our country. And the majority of students from low-income backgrounds are going to community college. And so I really struggle to think about how to navigate that and think about that from a student navigation and advocacy lens.SophiaYeah. And if I may, hi, I’m Sophia. I took myself off of mute. Hi. I feel like I’m in a very unique position because I used community college to get to a place like Harvard. I’m from a low-income community, but I also used community college to get my medical assisting license, which I didn’t end up doing anything with. But I don’t know, I’m kind of delusionally optimistic where I feel like we can bridge this.It just hasn’t been done. And I just feel like I’m a little bit relentless right now to see. I don’t know, I feel like sometimes it’s too easy to say we can’t do things like workforce transfer, community engagement, right? So I’m trying to figure that out. And I do tell students to go into community college. Of course, it’s not perfect, but I definitely feel like it’s something, at least in California, that’s thriving and that students are asking a lot about because, yes, affordability is real. But yeah, I just want to appreciate you guys for answering those questions. And yeah, I am a CC advocate and I do tell people to go into it because of course I’m an exception right now, but I shouldn’t be. So just trying to figure that out. But yeah, thank you guysJames CryanWell, the world needs more delusional optimism and tenacity. So I’m hopeful for the future of whatever future you’re a part of, and I hope it’s a big one. Check out Education Design Lab if you haven’t seen that, and send me an email later and I’ll connect you to a member of their team if you’re interested in learning more about their work.Michael HornI want to hear James. I know, Jeff, you had a question, but I want to hear James, your last one that you say we’re going to disagree on.Smartphone Policies in EducationJames CryanOkay, yeah, this is— I’ve got two controversial ones potentially. The last one I think we disagree on is I think 10 countries will follow Australia’s lead and ban social media for students under 16. I think 3 of those countries will also ban AI companions for young people, of which 70% of young people have tried and, and half are regular users at this point. A stat that I find mind-blowing and I’m here for it. I think that is a good thing for our, the future of our society. So Michael, I think you disagree with me on this, and so I’m curious.Michael HornYou’d be surprised. I would say I take the Tyler Cowen pushback on the Australia law very seriously, that there could be a lot of unintended free speech consequences. And I am not wild about kids being on social media algorithmic or AI companion services as registered users. And so I’m actually probably leaning closer to you on this one than you’d expect. Where I’m different is I’m not wild about the cell phone bans top down in schools because I want to create room for the educators to have productive uses of them. But that doesn’t include social media or AI companions. So like I would, I actually think we would help the educator use case on that.If we had those bans in place and took them seriously. And I still think, by the way, a lot of educators would make the very rational choice in my mind to not allow smartphones during the day. Like, I think that would be a very good choice. And I want to empower educators on the ground to be able to make that choice right for their model without criminalizing those educators that have said, actually, there’s a really productive use case here. But believe it or not, I don’t have a prediction on the number of countries likely to follow Australia. But I mean, look, we’re a wait until 8th household for my kids, my daughters. And so, you know, far be it for me to sort of push back on that is, I guess, the way I would say it. And as I understand the law, you could still watch a YouTube video. You just can’t be registered and have, right, like a relationship, if you will, and a set of notifications that are personalizing around your under-16 profile.Right. That seems commonsensical to me. That’s the addiction part of it that I think is so dangerous. Yeah. Megan wants you to name names.James CryanOh my goodness. I mean, I, off the top of my head, France, Spain, Denmark, UK are all thinking about this. Germany is thinking about it. I think New Zealand, Malaysia. Not us.Michael HornOkay. No, yeah, I don’t think we’re there, although it is interesting, right? Like, you look at the hearings on, on, in Congress, this is an area where there’s a lot of bipartisan agreement, right? That sort of, I, you know, again, I don’t know the facts, this is not my area of expertise, but there’s a lot of bipartisan agreement that Meta and others have hidden a lot of the research from public view on this. And sort of it feels like a cigarette moment in some ways where you may see some legislation. You’re certainly seeing some state activity on this. I think Montana and some other places have passed laws. It’s not clear how that like operationalizes in a country, right, to just do it within a state. I think that probably doesn’t work. So I’m not wild about the state-driven sort of take on it, but we’ll see.This is something that could bubble up. I do think we have a stronger tradition of free speech that’s important in this country. And I’m super worried, frankly, about what I see as an anti-free speech movement in Europe in specific. I find that extremely dangerous.James CryanYeah. Hey, Michael, do you have a last one?Michael HornNo, I want to hear your other disagreement.Building an Ownership SocietyJames CryanWell, this one I just don’t know. I do disagree with you on the cell phone ban. I think it’s too hard for educators to, to own it themselves. Yeah, it’s just been— it’s like a losing battle for schools and educators.Okay, my last one. I think Trump accounts, the baby bonds, are going to revolutionize philanthropy and economic mobility. I think that philanthropy will make them more progressive and focused on students further from opportunity, rightfully so. And it creates an infrastructure where philanthropists are no longer going to want to take an automatic 30% off the top of their philanthropy for overhead and then be uncertain around the programmatic impact. I’m bullish on Trump accounts.Michael HornI did not expect you to go there. I don’t disagree actually with you on this one either, believe it or not. I think it’s a positive thing in terms of— I’m not sure how I feel about universal basic income. I’m not sure that the evidence from my standpoint backs up a jobless future. And giving people equity in the future, I think, is a positive thing. And so your idea, I hadn’t thought about the philanthropy piece of it, but I think that’s compelling. I do think that no one should be naming things for living politicians as a general rule, but that’s a separate point. But I think the structure actually is a very compelling way to build up an ownership society, which I think the US would do well to move to move more aggressively into in general.James CryanThe Dell commitment more than doubled their foundation’s entire giving with that one commitment.Michael HornYeah, that’s interesting. That’s really interesting. So we’ll see how it plays out. I’ll stay on that for one second. The last one that I’ve been puzzling over, and I just— I don’t have a strong take on it for a prediction, but the ECA, right, piece of the one big beautiful bill that gave choice for states to arguably opt in. Even if the states don’t, it creates scholarship, scholarship contribution opportunities for individuals. And so politically, that is going to build, I think, a lot of momentum for choice. Like, wait a minute, you’re not letting our students benefit from it.And the real wildcard, I think, is what the regulations end up looking like and how much customization can you do within those structures. And so that’s— I’m not ready to— I don’t feel informed enough to make a prediction, but I think it’s a really interesting trend line.James CryanYeah, that’ll be interesting. I’m helping set up a scholarship foundation in Colorado to take advantage of, because Governor Polis opted in, which I think is the right call for governors. Why would you leave free money for—Michael HornYeah, because it’s not state dollars, right?James CryanThat’s right. Well, this has been fun, as I expected. Thank you so much for joining us, Michael, and thanks to the folks who joined us and participated in the conversation. Hope it was sparked, you know, the point of doing predictions is not to be right, it is to spark a more constructive and better future. And so hopefully that, that certainly happened for me, and hopefully that happened for others in the room today.Michael HornHuge thanks, and I’ll shout out Gina’s 3 areas, also in the chat of: teach K-12 how to embrace AI and not ban it, Shift high school credit requirements to include work-based learning and valuable skills and revisit recognition for industry-related certifications and shift to recognized application of the learning. I’m all for showing evidence in general and not just taking people’s word for it.James CryanSo those are good 3. So, Gina, are you in Colorado? That’s pretty similar to Colorado’s big 3.GinaI live in Colorado, but I work for Acceleration Academies. We’re in 9 different states. So, yeah. I was just going to say my husband’s a high school principal out here in Aurora, so I see a lot from his perspective as well.James CryanExcellent. All right. Well, thank you again, Michael, and to all of our folks who joined us. This was fun.The Future of Education is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit michaelbhorn.substack.com/subscribe

March 16, 202647 min

Education Disruption: Where are we now?

I’m normally the one asking the questions on this podcast. But when Kelly Smith, founder of the microschools solutions provider, Prenda, reached out with a bigger question around how has disruptive innovation in education evolved since Clay Christensen, Curtis Johnson, and I published Disrupting Class, I was thrilled to join him in a conversation on his KindlED podcast (check it out!)—with the idea that I’d also post it here. In this conversation, we discussed why technology alone did not (and will not!) produce the student-centered transformation many expected, how entrenched school structures and family habits can slow change, and how microschools, homeschooling, and education savings accounts are creating new pathways for more customized learning. We also reflected on the growing role of parents in shaping educational choices, the relationship between learner-centeredness and rigor, and what a more pluralistic, choice-filled future for schooling could look like. I hope you enjoy our conversation—and look forward to your thoughts.Michael Horn:A school doesn’t move to mastery-based learning, but they move to mastery-based grading, which I think is the wrong way to organize the world, but they’ll make that move first. And parents are like, whoa, like rebellion, right? Like, what are you doing? So like, you can see when you jump ahead of them, yeah, you get pushback. But if the parents are in the driver’s seat and they’re sort of piece by piece, like, wait, can I do that? Wait, can I have that? Like, they start to assemble the pieces in community.Kelly Smith:Hello and welcome to the Kindled Podcast for another exciting episode. I’m Kelly Smith. I’ll be your host today. I’m excited to be talking to Michael Horn. Michael’s an award-winning author. He’s written 8 books, including a national bestseller, Job Moves: 9 Steps for Making Progress in Your Career. He’s also teaching at the Harvard Graduate School of Education, and he co-founded the Clayton Christensen Institute for Disruptive Innovation, which is a nonprofit think tank, along with Clayton Christensen.We’ll be talking about that in today’s episode. Michael strives to create a world in which all individuals can build their passions, fulfill their potential, and live a life of meaning through his writing, speaking, and work with a portfolio of education organizations. I’ve known Michael for years. He’s influential in my personal story. I’m very grateful that he took the time to sit and talk with us. I think you’re going to love the insights on what’s happening in the education world, How does disruptive innovation as a theory apply to what we’re seeing right now? And where does this all go from here? So with that, Michael Horn. All right, Michael Horn, thank you so much for joining me on the KindlED Podcast. We’re excited to talk today.Michael Horn:I’m thrilled to be with you, Kelly. Like, I was thinking about it when you were starting up Prenda, man, what is it like 10 years at this point or something like that?Kelly Smith:Pretty close. I think I was in the year 2017, so that would’ve been 9 years ago.Microschools NomenclatureMichael Horn:Wild. So like, uh, yeah, it’s, it’s been, it’s been fun to watch you all grow and redefine learning and, and, and, you know, around the kitchen table for so many families and families coming together and create such cool spaces. So I’m delighted to be with you.Kelly Smith:Well, not, not to go too hard on the love fest here, but you were using the word microschool online and I wasn’t sure what to call it. I actually went through a brief stint. You could probably still find this out there. I was writing about nano schools because I thought, you know, some people are saying microschools really. Feels still like a school. I was really talking about something different, like very small groups with one adult. And I used nano schools a couple times. My wife put a stop to it. She’s like, that’s way too nerdy. And I said, well, there’s this guy, Michael Horn in Cambridge, and he’s talking about micro schools. And she’s like, yeah, I could get behind that.Michael Horn:You know, so now our, and now our friend John Danner is saying, call ’em low-cost privates. Cause some of them grow big. And I was thinking, wow. I was like, okay, I don’t even know how to call it anymore. But people sort of understand what we’re talking about, I think. And that’s, that’s a sea change, right? From like again, like 9 years ago where, you know, you, me, and a couple others, right? Absolutely.Kelly Smith:Well, first you, and then I just kind of picked up the words. So thanks. Another fun, fun story. I got to do Y Combinator in 2019. This is like famous for helping startups get their, get their launch, and they’ve launched Airbnb and some of these big companies. Paul Graham’s the notoriously eccentric guy at the, at the core of this thing. And Paul’s not as involved anymore in Y Combinator. Of course, he’s busy doing other things, but he came for one day and, you know, a few startups got to meet with him. We were one of the lucky few that we had like 15 minutes with Paul Graham.And I remember it took a little while for him to get the idea. First it was like, this seems crazy. No one’s gonna do that. And then once he caught it, you could see his eyes, like he’s just visceral. His eyes lit up. He’s like, Microschool, Microschool. He’s like, stop, drop the name Prenda. You are microschool.com. Like that is, Microschool is the word. And he was right. You know, Microschool as a, as a word now, Prenda, of course, stands for more than just microschools to us. We have a mission that is really about what we’re doing for kids. And so we kept the name Prenda. Maybe we shouldn’t have, but he was, it’s interesting to see now here we are in a world where everybody’s talking about microschools.Michael Horn:So, yeah, that’s interesting. I didn’t know that story. That’s fun.Forming the Thesis of Disrupting ClassKelly Smith:Well, let’s go back in time. I mean, while we’re already back, you know, 9 years, you, I became acquainted with your work because I’m a major Clay Christensen fanboy. You got to work with, with Professor Christensen at Harvard, famous for the invention of Disruption Theory. Talks about business cycles and how new entrants come in. You know, this is like scientific analysis for those of you who haven’t like studied any of this. There’s, there’s rhyme and reason to the way big industries get disrupted and the reason why big companies don’t often lead the innovation in their space. It happens from outside and all of these things. You guys were turning your attention to education as one of these institutions that maybe hadn’t changed that much and you were thinking, how could, how could this theory apply? I mean, I’d love to just kind of, I don’t know, dive in on reflections on this. How were you thinking about it at the time and would, yeah, would love to take a, take a peek back at your thinking and how you’ve updated it since. Yeah.Michael Horn:I mean, it’s so interesting to see how it’s changed, right? Um, but at the time, so Clay started working on this in like 1999, 2000, the original folks who had passed the first charter law in Minnesota had approached him and Tom VanderArk, Paul Hill, some other folks had come to him and was like, there’s something here, right? So what I didn’t know when I signed up to start writing the book with him in 2006 was he had like tried to write a book 5 times earlier. Disrupting Class is what it ended up being. But the title is like really important to the story, right? Which is one of the things when I, to your point, took the scientific look at like where could disruptive innovation actually happen? The challenge, frankly, in the United States was like there was not really any pockets of what you call non-consumption., right? Like public schooling was universal, compulsory, largely felt free. It’s not actually, we can get into that because there have been some policy innovations that I think radically changed the game in the last decade. But at the time we were like, so where is this disruptive innovation going to come from? And so we sort of had to wedge into this Disrupting Class, which on the one hand felt great because you’re like traditional classroom model, 1 to 30, like that is not optimized for learning, right? It’s built around this factory model of standardizing the way we teach and test and sorting kids out at various intervals. And then everyone’s shocked when like it does that really well and we’re upset at dropouts and things of that nature. But essentially, right, systems do what systems are built to do. Our schools are perfection, frankly, at that.And in the knowledge economy, we decide that no longer works. So you’re like, how do you transform the classroom model? And then we’re like, there’s lots of non-consumption of classes that students would love to take within schools. Maybe that’s the opportunity. So we look at credit recovery, advanced classes,, right? Like all these little pockets, unit recovery, if you want to go down to that level. And we’re like, you could launch disruptive innovations within the school system. Maybe, maybe I’ll pause it there, but like, that was where our head was initially of like how you overthrow the, the, the hierarchy of the one-to-many sort of standardized monolithic system. And just to say one more beat on it, the subtitle originally was For Every Child a Tutor. And so that was how like we were thinking about The publishers said we had to have disruptive innovation in there, but the, but that was sort of how we were thinking about it.It’s not just that you’re moving to digital. That’s not actually particularly exciting. And there’s a lot of reasons as we’re seeing right now that we hadn’t anticipated that aren’t amazing about it. But if you could use it to personalize the learning for each individual and let them move at their path and pace and so forth, wow, that could be really interesting. Ran up against a few realities we hadn’t, I think, fully anticipated that we can talk about. But, uh, that’s why, that, that, that’s why we went with that.Kelly Smith:Yeah. I love it. I love it. I mean, really, like, I went through and reread this in preparation for our conversation today, and I just was like, there is a very strong thesis in this book about student-centered learning, like putting a kid in the center, activating things like agency. And I’ve heard Clay Christensen talk about this in other contexts and just the role of of an inquisitive learner asking a question and Jobs to Be Done and, you know, all of these things that, um, that really do grab the human and put them at the center. And you guys hit that. I mean, that’s all here in the book. I think the question is, okay, how is it going to come to pass? And I hear you talk about it’s like, yeah, I, I would have, I think, done the same thing.I would have said, I don’t see a way in a, you know, kind of monolithic, uh, compulsory system. That that could happen, but I’m going to just joke a little bit here. Data suggests, so this is, uh, page 98. The data suggests that by, and this is, by the way, thank you for doing this because I teach kids algebra a lot and they’re like, when will I ever need, I’m like, Clay Christensen uses logarithms to analyze.Michael Horn:Yeah, there you go.Kelly Smith:Yeah. Yeah.Michael Horn:It turns out if you, if you array it on a 0.1, et cetera. Yeah.Obstacles to Realizing the Book’s PredictionsKelly Smith:Yeah. And you say by 2019. About 50% of high school courses will be delivered online, which is, you know, like a mathematical prediction based on what you guys were seeing at the time. I don’t think 50% of high school courses are being delivered online right now, and I’d love to just sort of, yeah, just get thoughts on that. Like there are more, there certainly are more, and a lot of these things you talk about credit recovery and, you know, all of that.Michael Horn:Yeah, I guess the one caveat to that one, I’d say where we, well, if you modeled the pandemic, we nailed it. But, um, the, the, the, the one caveat to that is, is in some ways I think what it’s actually really picking up is not virtual, but online, whether virtual or blended, right? And so I actually think we’re pretty close on that if you realize that the data isn’t like a wholly, like, teachers separate from you, right? Most of this is in blended learning environments, and which, which we did say, and then my second book was blended. So I actually think like we’re kind of closer on that prediction. Where I think we fall off the wagon is we wanted it to get to the student-centered learning that you just described. And we had a logic of like how it would, you know, sort of these facilitated networks outside of the world would start to work and things of that nature. And then the system would move from very linear software to something more student-centered and directed with teachers and look at the operating system, if you will, of traditional schools, the time-based nature, the, cover all this in 180 days, how they’re funded, you know, based on butts in seats, not how much you learn. Look for all the reasons in all of our research, and we do say it a couple times, but then we sort of jump ahead and say, well, but it’s going to be different because of this, like has been overwhelmed and sucked into the traditional system, even as those independent classes and like nowhere more so than credit recovery, right? Where I mean, I don’t know how many students, but at its peak around 2019, like tons and tons of students in urban districts are taking tons of online credit recovery courses. But because it’s still based around seat time and not like what you’ve learned, it sort of becomes this synonymous with like a scam market, right? In some ways of like, just like sort of, well, throw them there, we’ll accelerate them in 2 weeks and maybe they learned, but like we have no idea because the traditional system doesn’t care about learning and neither did credit recovery based on how it was implemented.Kelly Smith:When you look at this, I’m super curious about this. And now this is not about the book. This is what we’re seeing since, you know, I, you’ll sit with a room of educators and they’re well-meaning and they get this completely. Yes. Learning should be student-centered. I want this to be, they’ll say things like, I can’t because, and sometimes they’ll point to regulation, but it’s interesting to sit with the administrators on the other side, or even legislators or commissioners of, you know, from departments of education. And they’re like, It’s not actually, the regs actually allow a lot more than what we’re seeing. It’s that, you know, people are used to it a certain way.Kelly Smith:And I’ve even heard, you know, the third angle of this is the parents don’t really want it to be that different. So, I mean, what’s your, your kind of, how do you make sense of all of this and why maybe we haven’t raced to a world of student-centered, uh, like we, we all kind of hoped we would?Michael Horn:Yeah, I think, well, the parent piece of it, I think is real, right? And, and let’s maybe let’s park that because I think you’re part of the movement that could change that over time. Right. But it’s like a much longer time time horizon, I think. But on the first one, so the logic of disruptive innovation, why organizations fundamentally don’t change, why systems, like everyone’s like systems change, systems don’t change. They get disrupted by new systems, right? And so, and the reason for that is Clay articulated is that every organization has a business model in effect, dirty word in education, but it’s effectively a business model where you have a value proposition, resources, processes, and then some sort of financial formula that supports it all. And what you really very quickly realize is all of these things become interdependently locked, like as you’ve run it through a few years in a row, right? And process in particular is where culture lives. And it’s almost like grooves in like a, you know, you’re cross-country skiing, right? Like you’re like the grooves in the snow, you can’t even step out of them or the train tracks, right? And like, just organizations become exceptionally good at making process incredibly rigid, which I get, like a good process is built to design to solve one kind of problem.Well, it’s not built to solve all kinds of problems. If it, if it was, it’d be a really lousy process by definition. But as a result of that, how many thousands of processes unspoken and practices and like, this is just the way things work here are done in schools every single day. Forget to get for, you know, forget like the planning cycles of master schedules and all those things, right? That just cause it to say it’s like really hard to break out of it. So like I would have this discussion a lot of times with policymakers because when I was at the Christensen Institute, which Clay and I co-founded, I spent a lot of time testifying in state capitols and they would create these waivers, right, for, you know, get out of seat time, right? All sorts of flexibility in the law. And then they’d say, well, like, none of the schools are taking advantage of it. And it was like, well, because like, they’re, they have their pro, like, they have their practices and processes that are extremely exquisitely well honed for the existing policies. And I would even go so far as like, K12 Inc, now Stride Connections, right, then got acquired by Pearson, these full-time virtual learning schools that school networks that popped up in around like 2000, they, I mean, you remember this, Kelly, like they exquisitely have built technology systems to map back to seat time laws.And then, right, exactly. And then like, you were like, well, why aren’t you doing X? And like, I mean, I guess we could have, but we’ve built this incredible technology that is geared around like the traditional and they couldn’t even get out of their own way. Right. In many ways.Kelly Smith:And they would say, well, we had to make some compromises. We were up against rules and requirements, and even if one state allows it, other states don’t. And so you kind of go back to, yeah, it’s interesting to watch this all play out. It’s like, no, everyone wants it to change. Honestly, I can’t think of anybody who doesn’t, but can’t. And maybe an example of this that’s concrete is you and I have friends that have done these workshops, right? You’ll get a bunch of educators together and they’ll always start with the same speech, right? It’s a blank sheet of paper. Look at this.And they’ll physically have a blank sheet of paper and like, let’s design around what we think school could possibly be and how amazing. And people get excited, the energy’s there. And by the end of that session, it looks very similar. I mean, every time it’s like maybe it has Japanese classes.Michael Horn:Well, it’s right. And I think that’s what’s unique about say Prenda or like Florida Virtual School, right? When they did these exercises in effect, because they were creating something completely different that was allowed to operate outside. And that is the innovator’s dilemma or the logic of disruption that you led with, which is it really does take independent organizations that do not make those compromises with the existing system or value chain. I remember our early phone calls when you were designing Prenda. Like my big concern for you was, oh, if you partner with a school, are you going to have to make an accommodation? Like be like, that was my big worry for you, right?Kelly Smith:Yes, by the way, you were right.Michael Horn:Interesting. Okay. Well, so yeah, I mean, that was my big concern, right? Was like, like you have to fit into, and then my, my colleague at the Christensen Institute, Tom Arnett, like, and loves to talk about on top of the business models, you have value networks, right? Where you’re sort of form-fitting into the ecosystem around you and that further constrains. And look, at some point you are form-fitting into society, right? The question is at what level, I think, and what node.The Impact of Evolving School ChoicesKelly Smith:Yeah. Yeah. It’s a fascinating question. I want to get back to the theory here and just say, if you were to redo this book now and given kind of what you saw, because it sounds like one of the assumptions you had was compulsory monolithic, you know, a system where there’s not really, you could do things differently in the classrooms, but you can’t really get out of it. Now we’ve seen homeschool rise. We’ve been through COVID. We’ve seen families look at this differently. I think you are seeing parents taking a little bit more ownership. They’re at least awake to it. They’re asking questions. What is going on? How is my kid doing? And, and they’re not just assuming everything’s fine. And then, uh, and then school choice, right? So now there’s this mechanism by which families can get some percentage of the tax dollars that would go toward public education. They can use it for educating their own kid. I think those things have shaken things up a little bit, and I would love to just kind of hear your perspective as you think about that now.Michael Horn:Yeah, that’s my read as well. I think it’s not in the book, but homeschooling was growing quite a bit when we wrote Disrupting Class as well. It was going through sort of the first boom, I would argue, powered by the online learning, right? That was now, that now made it far easier to sort of give your kid a, uh, an education beyond the couple things you knew really well, right? And, but we did actually that same logarithmic S-curve calculation on the growth of homeschooling and it flattened out at around 10% of families, which I think like finger to the wind is about the upper limit of, right? Families that want their kids at home. But now you couple that with some innovations that have unlocked hey, you can send them over to Kelly’s house, right, for, for learning. You can send them to the church. You can write like these micro schools, et cetera. And then the other piece you just named COVID, obviously awakening a lot of families and asking questions that they weren’t asking before. And then the fourth, which I think is the biggest, is these educational choice.In particular, I actually think there’s a big difference between vouchers and educational savings accounts. I think the educational savings accounts are a big policy innovation over vouchers because now I have dollars in an account where I’m making a series of decisions across multiple providers and I’m making cost-value trade-offs, right? And trade-offs are really important. And then the other piece of that is now I’m a family in Arizona or wherever, you know, name your state. I could go to the quote unquote free public school, but I’m actually losing out on how many thousands of dollars, right? In the education savings account. All of a sudden it doesn’t feel free. It feels like a negative when I could be customizing my education for my kid. And so now all of a sudden, quote unquote, it feels pricey. And so to me, one of the big unlocks of microschools that was interesting and why I started writing about them before these policies gained steam was I started saying, well, the other place disruption happens is not from non-consumption.It’s when the existing system overserves families. And you’re like, public schools don’t overserve families. Like, we’re not learning nearly enough, blah, blah, blah. And you’re like, actually not. Not true, right? There’s plenty of families that look at it and they’re like, the academics are like, my kid’s fine on that front, but like, I really don’t care about, you know, the 15 sports teams and the 26 clubs and the, you know, the 5 bands that they like. I just want like the best piano experience coupled with like a tailored learning around this, right? Or whatever it is. And you’re like, okay, so they’re overserved. Plus educational savings accounts now makes it feel more expensive too.To me, that’s dynamic. And I think it creates real room for, you know, if I rewrote it now, Disrupting Schools. Now we can get out of the system, right? That’s pretty, at least in my mind, that’s pretty huge.Fostering Family Buy-InKelly Smith:I hope you guys listening at home are recognizing the impact of this. I mean, I think we are at that moment, but it’s interesting to hear you talk about it. I work with a lot of parents. I get to be there often at the, the very first sort of realization of what an ESA even is. And they’re like, wait, what? How does this work? So I’m, we’re not yet at this point you’re describing where, I mean, out here in Arizona, it’s 10% of the kids in, in K-12 in Arizona are doing ESA. So it’s not unheard of, but I’m still, most people, if I just pick a parent and start talking to them about it, they have not heard of it yet. And, and I think. I think as that kind of climbs up the S-curve, there is that tipping point where people say, yeah, there is an opportunity cost to not taking that scholarship.I think on the flip side, it can feel scary. I mean, there’s all the psychology around, well, now I’m in charge. Once I get that money, it’s like, there’s, there’s at least comfort in sort of just doing what everyone else does, sending them to the school everyone else goes to. Even if I, you know, I personally don’t feel super happy with it, I can at least kind of tell myself a story that feels good. Yeah, the tipping point here is I see enough of an opportunity to sort of quell my fears around that. And it is, you know, I don’t want to just passively sit there and go with whatever the— we wouldn’t do that in almost any other aspects of our lives. You think about health and nutrition and, you know, apparel, like we research the heck out of things.We study them. We’re agents in our own personal decisions. We’re with our child, our precious child and their whole future 7 hours a day for however many days.Michael Horn:It’s, you know, yeah, it’s, it’s, I think I told you this, my, yeah, I think if I can’t remember both of my daughters, but definitely one of them read your book in addition to me, she sort of grabbed it off my nightstand and read it. And she was like, yeah, Dad, like, this is weird. Why don’t you, why aren’t more families doing these things? It was really interesting to like hear her just sort of give her like very childlike, right. Sort of blunt view of like, this just makes sense. Of course you would make these choices. Right. But I think what you just said is right. Like, parents, and you said parents like push back against it.And you see it like, I’ll give a couple examples where you see it in big, big places, right? Number one is like a school doesn’t move to mastery-based learning, but they move to mastery-based grading, which I think is the wrong way to like organize the world. But, but they’ll, they’ll, they’ll make that move first and parents are like, whoa, like rebellion, right? Like, what are you doing? And so, so like you can see when you jump ahead of them, yeah, you get pushback. But if the parents are in the driver’s seat and they’re sort of piece by piece, like, wait, can I do that? Wait, can I have that? Like, they start to assemble the pieces in community. And I think that’s the big part that you’re pointing to, right? Like with social proof, with others around it, it’s not like data saying, is this a good choice or a bad choice? But like, man, I know my friend did this and now I’m going to like have that experience too. And our friends at outschool.org are like, done some great research right around the importance of social proof in helping people actually use those ESA dollars and actually activate them. To me, that’s like the bit by bit where you start to see maybe that S-curve actually materialize in a way that’s not just like we’ve digitized the existing system, which by the way, not only was that not great, it also like has had a bunch of negative ramifications, I think, within traditional schools. And I think we did actually predict that. I don’t think anyone like took that part of the book seriously.We warn vociferously about cramming technology into existing, into the existing system, but whatever. But, but I think in a new system, right, piece by piece, parents making these choices, that’s how we start to build a movement over time. And look, I don’t, I haven’t really looked at the calculations. It’d be interesting to do so, but yeah, I think it’s probably a longer timeframe for a full transformation, but, but I think there’s actually way more opportunity now than there was.Kelly Smith:Well, I’m now very curious to run the S-curve and the logarithmic analysis again.Learner-Centeredness in Support of RigorMichael Horn:Yeah, I was going to say, get your students to get some of your students to do it with like the growth of ESAs or something. Look, you’ll have some exogenous factors that are tamping it down, which is, as you know, outside of just a couple states, like they’re not fully funded. So you’re getting weight. So like we’d have to put some assumptions around that. But I think the momentum is there. I will tell you the other pushback. So there are some people who are against student-centered learning. There are a lot of my friends who like believe in science of reading and things of that nature. I’ll just call it out. ‘Cause like they’re very into the whole classroom large thing. And I guess what I would say is like, they want more rigor in academics.Kelly Smith:Sure.Michael Horn:I’m with you.Kelly Smith:Right.Michael Horn:But like, I can’t imagine what’s more rigorous than making sure that like Michael understands how to decode, you know, like this set of phonemic things before, like he jumps into some crazy text way above him. Like I can’t imagine why you wouldn’t want that. And look, I want conversations and so forth, but I want a conversation around a text where like I can actually participate and have a real exchange of ideas. And I don’t know, like most 30-person environments for that are not that great. But what’s your ratio, like 6 or so?Kelly Smith:Yeah, 7.5 is the average per class right now.Michael Horn:Okay, so there you go. Like, that’s probably a pretty interesting conversation.Kelly Smith:No, and I know these folks too. They’re friends. I’m always curious. It feels a little bit like like just apologetic or it’s basically, it’s hard to be an educator, which I agree with, to really be and do teacher-led. And there’s not that many of ‘em, so that’s what brings them to 25 or 30 kids. But I, I don’t think they would say if you had a great educational experience for 10, I think most people would say that’s, that’s gonna be better. You can dive deeper or you can get into it. And with, with more data, more visibility as well.Kelly Smith:Yeah. I don’t know. Do you see those as mutually exclusive? Rigorous learning and student-centered? I mean, are those two competing ideas?Michael Horn:I don’t, I don’t even, yeah, I, I don’t personally, I don’t. I get that there have been some parts of the quote unquote personalized learning world that have been less rigorous in the sense of like concepts are a little bit too atomic. They’re like lack coherence, right? Yeah. In terms of like what you’re learning about and sort of like a lot of ping-ponging around and piecemeal. I don’t I, look, I, I helped set up the Robinhood Learning and Tech Fund back in 2015, and the basic hypothesis around literacy was you could use the technology to really personalize, like, the, the mastery of the skills of how to read, right, while creating a really content-coherent, rich set of opportunities for students to, to, to build that background knowledge to access anything. I guess the other thing I would say is there’s a group of folks who I love, but they’re convinced that there is one canon in all of this. And I don’t know how you think about it, but I agree there’s a lot of useful texts that are like culturally helpful across. And but like, I do think that there is an exaggeration of like how common that is.Michael Horn:And I suspect that they would be pretty horrified at some pretty foundational texts that I have never read. Yeah. And I think I have gotten by okay.Kelly Smith:Well, let’s not expose ourselves too much here, Michael. I don’t want to, I definitely don’t want anybody watching this and judging us, but the same, right? And I think they would also be intrigued to find something that I have read and that’s, that’s made a difference in my life that wasn’t in their list. Right.Michael Horn:Oh, that’s interesting. It goes both ways.Looking Ahead to the Future of School ChoiceKelly Smith:Who’s to say like, this is an education, you know, that feels very, 18th century schoolmaster in Princeton or something. What do you see as, just as we look at where we’re at and we don’t know where we are on the S-curve, but it’s definitely climbing. It’s rising. One quick test I do on this is I look at Google Trends for the word microschool and I go all the way back to 2004 and it’s just nothing, nothing, nothing. There’s a little blip and then there’s this like spike in 2020, which of course, right? Everyone was talking about microschools in 2020. And then, um, since then it goes back down and it’s just this noisy but consistent, like steady. I mean, we’re well above where we were at peak, peak COVID in terms of just Google searches, right? People are actually looking up this word and thinking about it. And we see this in, in the business.Like we’ll go out to a new entity, right? Texas has an EFA program, ESA-style program, and we do a webinar about microschools and people come, they show up, and then we talk to ‘em on the phone and they’ve researched and they’ve got a vision for what they want to do and they’re ready to go and making plans. And, and so you can feel the maturity of the concept. Yeah. And I think depending on your interpretation of how parents think about this and what they want, I think we could argue that we’re still relatively very early stage in microschools. As you mentioned, it’s a, it’s a long journey. It’s, it’s a lot going on and it’s going to take, I would imagine, a long time, but I don’t think it caps at 10% either. I think there’s a lot of families that are going to find a lot of value in this. Be curious to just hear your, yeah, your thoughts. Just what are you seeing today? Things that make you excited, things that you’re maybe concerned about.Michael Horn:So I largely agree with, well, I agree with actually everything you just said. So let’s start there, right? Which is to me, it feels like the momentum is growing. The numbers are growing. A lot of families want different experiences. And look, I think some families will continue to opt for a traditional experience, but like, it’ll be an active choice as opposed to a passive thing that it’s just because I’m supposed to. And I think that’s part of this is like, I imagine that there’s going to be just a multiplicity, like an explosion of opportunities for students in the future. And where I am in Massachusetts, we’re the furthest thing from having an ESA, I think, probably anywhere in the country. You can correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m like, I am just fighting to have like an array of very different options open for my kids by the time they get to high school.Like, that’s my mission is to see like, hey, there are 6 meaningfully different options that you can choose that fit like the the kind of person you think you want to go be, right? And then you have the information to make that choice yourself. So I feel like it’s growing though in the other states. You know, you mentioned Texas. By the time this comes out, I think it’s going to be oversubscribed already, right? The number of slots, we’re well on the way to that as of the day we’re recording, day two of having them released it open or whatever it is. So that’s exploding, I think. The things I’m worried about at the moment are a couple things on the policy front. One, legislators who are putting in input-based or accreditation requirements as part of these, I think that is a very bad idea. It’s not been a good quality seal in higher ed where we have a lot of experience about this.I think that would, like, we want lower barriers to entry. We don’t want to do anything that raises barriers to entry in my mind in terms of education entrepreneurship right now. And then the second thing I would say that sort of like I think goes alongside that is there’s a bunch of the newer ESA laws that make it tuition first for those dollars. I would much rather the families have much more choice on like how they spend it. Look, you come up with your guidelines of what counts in your education marketplace, but then let the families make the choices around these things. You don’t know their circumstances. You don’t know if they need like a one microschool anchor experience with other things around it, or if they are going to, you know, go full à la carte. I think that’s the minority for the foreseeable future, but Certainly in Florida, more families are moving to a lot of interesting experiences around that.And I think that’s great. Understand, hey, my kid already knows X, Y, and Z because of our home environment. This is the thing that I want them to go chase. Like, that’s awesome, I think.Kelly Smith:Yeah, no, it’s exciting. And I share your concern. I mean, it’s interesting your point from earlier, and you’re saying it again here that, you know, putting the money in their hand as money. Not like a coupon to go to a private school. It’s like, this is dollars and it has a dollar sign. Now it shifts the psychology. I’m going to think about this differently because, you know, I understand how money works and I understand how markets work. We, this is, this literally just happened yesterday.I talked to an educator in Florida, 26 years with special ed education. Like she’s deep and she’s so passionate and so caring and she’s frustrated. She’s been limited in her, you know, traditional environment for what she’s able to do, and a lot of emphasis on testing, just things that are getting in the way of her responding to what she sees kids need. So she’s ready to start a microschool, right? And these are the conversations I love. She immediately comes with this question of, well, what about IEPs? You know, what about special ed and how does this work? And it’s interesting, right? One, this is private. It’s outside of, you know, the normal realm. So you don’t have the lawsuits and all the litigious aspects of, of special ed, which is what it turns into sometimes. But then in terms of accommodations, accommodations, you know, if you worked with Prenda, like we’ve built in most IEP accommodations and offered them to every single kid.So you, you really have so much flexibility, so much ability to just tailor the experience. And then I said services is an interesting one. I actually used to like be afraid in these conversations to say, well, you know, services can be tricky. Like we don’t really have the ability in a microschool to provide everybody with the right therapies and speech and, you know, different things that you need. And the parents are actually like, thank you, I get my money. I have a person I already like, I want to work with them. So the question is just, will they accept ESA? And it’s an easy process for them to get registered as a vendor on the, the system. And so all of a sudden you’re seeing the market kind of evolve to those needs and respond.And I agree with everything you’re saying about just watching parents feel empowered and intentional, I guess, even in the way they’re thinking about this. So it’s it’s shifting. I guess I didn’t see this coming, but it’s a, it’s a shift in perspective. That’s almost a side effect of the way that the programs are structured. That’s fantastic.Michael Horn:I didn’t, that’s a great story also. I don’t think I appreciated half of what you just said, but that’s a really cool evolution. And the people who work in special ed in the traditional system will tell you that the incentives are all backwards, right? In terms of, uh, like if you prize, uh, like an efficiency innovation that makes it way more accommodating and streamlined for a that, that’s a negative in many cases because all of a sudden, like, you did it with fewer dollars and what, what, what happened, right? It’s, it’s, so the, the opportunity to custom build for each kid from the ground up is just a much better way. And Diane Tavenner, my co-host at the Class Disrupted podcast, she always says, like, people think this is more expensive, but that’s because they’re doing it from a system that was built to standardize and they’re layering it over as opposed to designing from first principles around personalization and optimization for each kid. And when you build it in from the beginning, it’s often not just like, it’s not more expensive. It’s actually, forget about even cost neutral, can sometimes be less expensive. Because you really are tailoring it for that kid from the get-go.Kelly Smith:1,000 micro schools plus, we’re probably closer to 1,200 now. And our average is $6,800 tuition. So that’s less than half of what the average in the US, you know, Public dollars spent on education. So yeah, I mean, absolutely true. Now we’re also saving money because people are working in free spaces and they’re doing this all outside the system.Michael Horn:I want to— sure, but stay with that, stay with that for a second, right? Like, because to me, this will be the other piece of it, which is that the market that you just described innovating to create, say, the special ed marketplace or whatever it might be, I think we’re going to see continued innovation around that. Like, the hallmark of disruption is not that it comes in with its initial offering and that initial offering stays the exact same and everyone moves to it. It’s that that initial offering improves in a variety of ways to tackle quote unquote more complicated use cases or problems. And piece by piece, people migrate out to the disruption as it becomes capable of doing it right. And so in some ways there’s something symbiotic around 5 parents moving to the system, right? And 5 parents are watching it, but they’re like, can they handle my edge case? And then like the system innovates and then they come in, right? And like you sort of have this iterative nature on a very almost one-by-one basis. Right. And so the conversation I was having recently with our friend Tyler Thigpen at Forest Acton was like, you know, high school has been relatively rare in the microschool space. And like my hypothesis has been a lot of families, it’s not the academics that are holding them back.It’s like high school is a big part. A big part of high school is identity formation. Right. It’s like Friday Night Lights, like all these things that we sort of make fun of a little bit in the culture, but like are actually helping you understand who am I within my community with common experiences. And so we were talking about all the intentional ways microschools can build a, like other kinds of identity forming experiences that, by the way, are more inclusive, I think, but can start to more intentionally pull people and say like, oh, like if that’s the thing you’re trying to solve for, like we can help you with that.The Role of Districts in a Choice-Filled FutureKelly Smith:So interesting. I want to stay on the future where this all goes and just get your look. I know we’ve talked a little bit about this so far, but any other thoughts on that? And one specific twist I’ll throw at you, because I know you’ve worked with the, you know, on the legislative side of this, you’ve worked with leaders from that have heavy ties to the system as it stands, right? The actual incumbent system. Um, maybe this goes back. This is a story from early, early Prenda, and it goes back to your, your comment about train tracks or, uh, cross-country skiing. By the way, I’m in Arizona, so I have to like think about what cross—Michael Horn:Yeah, yeah. You have to adapt that. Sorry. I have to come up with an analogy for the warm, uh, the warm environment.Kelly Smith:I thankfully have done it before, so I know what you meant, but I had this microschool going in my house and I had already seen by that point, you know, 8 or 9 kids that had had a, what I’d just a breakthrough, you know, like they started to see themselves differently. The student-centered nature of this was taking. You’d see offshoots of their, their young roots growing and it was working. And I’m saying, this is a great model, but like, it’s crazy that I’m doing this at my house and using the park down the street for our playground. And so I went and I was friends with the principal of the school locally. We, I had known her pretty well. And I explained what I was doing. So some of these kids did drop out of your school and they joined, you know, my thing, but I’m not here as like a muscle thing.It’s just like, I think there’s an opportunity here for them to still get, you know, what if they need free lunch and what if they need counseling? What if they want to participate in PE or be in the school band? And I can’t offer all of that. So I said, what if we did micro schools on your campus? And it was this interesting moment where she, she, you could tell she’s like thinking about it and processing it. And she kind of looked back at me and just said, why would I do that? And I think I have like a, I have a, an ungenerous version of that, which is like, because maybe you don’t care about kids enough or something. But as we talk, I think it’s actually different than that. It’s she was on tracks that would literally have required her to take a whole train off of tracks and do, do something different. I guess I’m curious, just your thoughts on where this goes relative to the the system as a whole. I know in other, you know, in the business model examples that you guys give, like the steel mills go out of business, the mini computers go out of business, but that’s not necessarily where I think I want this to go or anyone wants for schools to quote go out of business. So how does this recover or what happens next, I guess?Michael Horn:Yeah, it’s a good question. I’m not sure I have all the answers on this. I guess my take is, you know, often look, some part of the incumbents stay around, right? And So that may be part of this story. I think part of the story is we see, you know, in Florida is a good example, right? Where there’s probably been the longest history of choice in all forms and to most students, a lot of districts are starting to innovate themselves, right? And they’re like less wary of the microschool or fractional, you know, the Tim Tebow law, right? Sort of stuff or like offering a set of services that they’re really good at into the ESA marketplace. And so you’re seeing some really cool innovation there. And so I think that might be part bit, I could imagine some district school, like the biggest challenge with the response to COVID in the last several years has been sort of the one-size-fits-all way that districts like met the moment. You could imagine that starting to break down, I think, in the years ahead and then starting to be like, like, what if we had 10 different microschool communities in the, in the building, right? Like there are some examples of school, traditional schools that have done that. They’re few, but if they see that, like, if I don’t do that, I’m going to lose students.I wonder why not take like the things that they do offer in terms of the community and create these more umbrella opportunities. Right. And so I guess I’m curious about where that goes. I don’t have a strong, I can tell all the reasons why it won’t happen, but I don’t have a strong hypothesis yet one way or the other, because there are some compelling case studies of districts that have made these switches. And I think we should honor those and, and, and like see where it goes. And part of my hypothesis would be the way microschools sort of climb that last part, if you will, of the curve, is that they do create ways of creating bigger communities when that is appropriate for the given, you know, like when being part of a bigger community, it makes sense relative to the activity or, or culture or whatnot. I do think the existing system like provides an incredible umbrella for that gathering space. So can it re-envision itself as more of a community center in effect where there are these à la carte services that you might provide? And look, some kids I think probably need the full bundle, right? And so maybe, you know, there’s a version of this that is more tailored around them because it becomes smaller and more personal where they’re getting everything from that.And then there’s others that are sort of plugging in, right, in a more à la carte or ad hoc fashion as they’re deciding on the ground makes sense. I don’t know yet, but I do think, yeah, I mean, I guess I will say like in the, in the retail space, right? Like the traditional retailers that have done well, they haven’t done well by like trying to out-Amazon Amazon. They’ve done well by like really leaning into experience, right? And what makes them compelling. And I do think I’ll take higher ed for example. Where I spend, you know, like 40% of my life, which is do you think like, you know, labor markets are regional and people hire based on who you know. And like, I think in the world of AI, that’s actually going to increase. I think it’ll be 80% plus of jobs will be filled somehow by social network. And so creating communities where people can mix and do stuff together, I think will be really valuable and important.So that is opportunity, I guess, to lean into place and experience and stuff like that. We’ll see what the form factors are that get that done.Kelly Smith:Yeah, it’s a, it’s an open question for me too. And in fact, one of my personal goals is to just partner with more of these forward-thinking school leaders. I was just at an event with Tom Vander Ark. He was gathering folks together and just talking about new pathways. And I said this on stage, you know, if you are a school leader, I’ll say it here, you know, to your crowd as my crowd. If you’re a school leader and you think, hey, maybe a microschool would work, I will donate a microschool to, to do it as an experiment and we’ll make this happen.Michael Horn:Well, by the way, can we just say it for a second? Like that act alone would, I think, jump a lot, start a lot of this. So like coming out of the pandemic, I was having a conversation with our local superintendent here and, and her cabinet and they’re like, okay, we think we’re ready for a microschool. And so I sort of described to them what it would take for them to do it. And you could see like the blood just drained from their faces over Zoom. And I was like, that was really dumb of me. Like I made it. Yeah. Like I went about this the exact wrong way. I think the more it’s like in a box almost, right?Clay Christensen’s Impact on MichaelKelly Smith:Like here it is, the better. There you go. This has been so fun. I feel like I could talk to you for hours. Really appreciate the work you’re doing, your writing and thinking and just helping shape all of this. It’s, it’s huge. We’d like to ask everybody before we wrap up just to kind of think back in your life and name somebody that’s been somebody who’s kindled a love of learning for you. It could be all the way back in childhood or later in life., but would love the opportunity to just kind of have you reflect on that question and shout somebody out.Michael Horn:Yeah. I mean, am I allowed to say Clay Christensen? Because he was certainly the most influential teacher who changed how I saw the world, but then created this desire. Clay loved it when someone proved him wrong because it was an opportunity to learn and refine the understanding of the world. And he didn’t I think when he first came out with Disruptive Innovation Theory, he wasn’t like, this explains everything. It’s perfect. The evolution of that over time through people saying, doesn’t quite work here. It doesn’t quite work here. And I think school frankly has been like part of that humble pie part of it as well, right? Has sharpened our understanding.And so it’s a cool, like lifelong learning model of not like, oh, you were wrong being like a dagger, but like, oh cool, tell me more. Right? And so he’s one I don’t always live up to, but I try to keep learning from.Kelly Smith:I appreciate that. And yeah, I think so highly of him. I didn’t get the chance to work like you did with him and he’s passed away now. I just shout out to Clay Christensen and, and thanks for that. And thanks for being here. This has been such a fascinating conversation.Michael Horn:I wish you all the best in, in your work and look forward to staying in touch. Vice versa. The entrepreneurs of the world create the future and, and you all have been a shining light for our families and kids, and I just really appreciate what you’ve done, Kelly.The Future of Education is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit michaelbhorn.substack.com/subscribe

Is this your show?

Claim this listing to keep it up to date, reach guests who want to pitch you, and manage bookings with Guestify.

Claim this listing

More Entrepreneurship podcasts